Regressing to the mean

[SteveAWOL]

Interesting stuff @scaramanga - out of interest, do you know what Costa's career stats are like?

Fwiw... Shot accuracy and conversion-rates for this season (last season) [2013/14] {2012/13}

Costa: 52% (64%) [57%] {61%} and 16.1% (26.3%) [25.0%] {20.0%}
Aguero: 59% (54%) [60%] {59%} and 15.9% (17.6%) [19.8%] {13.9%}
Giroud: 53% (50%) [43%] {43%} and 20.4% (20.0%) [14.3%] {9.8%}
Lukaku: 55% (55%) [62%] {59%} and 21.4% (9.5%) [14.9%] {17.5%}
Benteke: 45% (45%) [53%] {59%} and 15.2% (16.3%) [14.9%] {18.3%}
H. Kane: 64% (58%) [71%] {n/a} and 15.7% (18.8%) [10.7%] {n/a}
J. Vardy: 60% (60%) [51%] {n/a} and 23.0% (10.4%) [18.6%] {n/a}

Ronaldo: 48% (54%) [54%] {58} and 12.2% (21.3%) [14.4%] {14.4%}
L. Messi: 59% (64%) [67%] {62%} and 10.0% (23.0%) [17.5%] {28.2%}

 

[scaramanga]

Fwiw... Shot accuracy and conversion-rates for this season (last season) [2013/14] {2012/13}

Costa: 52% (64%) [57%] {61%} and 16.1% (26.3%) [25.0%] {20.0%}
Aguero: 59% (54%) [60%] {59%} and 15.9% (17.6%) [19.8%] {13.9%}
Giroud: 53% (50%) [43%] {43%} and 20.4% (20.0%) [14.3%] {9.8%}
Lukaku: 55% (55%) [62%] {59%} and 21.4% (9.5%) [14.9%] {17.5%}
Benteke: 45% (45%) [53%] {59%} and 15.2% (16.3%) [14.9%] {18.3%}
H. Kane: 64% (58%) [71%] {n/a} and 15.7% (18.8%) [10.7%] {n/a}
J. Vardy: 60% (60%) [51%] {n/a} and 23.0% (10.4%) [18.6%] {n/a}

Thanks for that, very interesting.

All backs up the impression that Vardy's rate is likely to drop a fair bit soon. Also that he's probably a low end PL striker who was stuck in the lower leagues (although there's only one season to base that on).

If his rate stays where it is then he's up there with some of the best in the world - I'm fairly sure he's not.

 

[milo]

Fwiw... Shot accuracy and conversion-rates for this season (last season) [2013/14] {2012/13}

Costa: 52% (64%) [57%] {61%} and 16.1% (26.3%) [25.0%] {20.0%}
Aguero: 59% (54%) [60%] {59%} and 15.9% (17.6%) [19.8%] {13.9%}
Giroud: 53% (50%) [43%] {43%} and 20.4% (20.0%) [14.3%] {9.8%}
Lukaku: 55% (55%) [62%] {59%} and 21.4% (9.5%) [14.9%] {17.5%}
Benteke: 45% (45%) [53%] {59%} and 15.2% (16.3%) [14.9%] {18.3%}
H. Kane: 64% (58%) [71%] {n/a} and 15.7% (18.8%) [10.7%] {n/a}
J. Vardy: 60% (60%) [51%] {n/a} and 23.0% (10.4%) [18.6%] {n/a}

Thanks. I'd be interested in seeing his stats for whilst he was out on loan from Athletico (I'm not asking you to get them for me). I am wondering whether his current slump is regression to mean or if he is just suffering from poor form.

 

[milo]

Thanks for that, very interesting.

All backs up the impression that Vardy's rate is likely to drop a fair bit soon. Also that he's probably a low end PL striker who was stuck in the lower leagues (although there's only one season to base that on).

If his rate stays where it is then he's up there with some of the best in the world - I'm fairly sure he's not.

Yep. Backs up him being a really poor value signing at the moment.

 

[SteveAWOL]

Thanks for that, very interesting.

All backs up the impression that Vardy's rate is likely to drop a fair bit soon. Also that he's probably a low end PL striker who was stuck in the lower leagues (although there's only one season to base that on).

If his rate stays where it is then he's up there with some of the best in the world - I'm fairly sure he's not.

Fwiw, I've just edited my post to include Ronaldo and Messi' figures for comparison... Quite surprised at how low Ronaldo' conversion rates have been.

 

[SteveAWOL]

Thanks. I'd be interested in seeing his stats for whilst he was out on loan from Athletico (I'm not asking you to get them for me). I am wondering whether his current slump is regression to mean or if he is just suffering from poor form.

As I've got the tab open...

Costa' conversion rate was 22.2% for Rayo in 11/12 and also 22.2% for Atletico in 10/11, which suggests that this season is an aberration.

 

[milo]

As I've got the tab open...

Costa' conversion rate was 22.2% for Rayo in 11/12 and also 22.2% the previous season for Atletico, which suggests that this season is an aberration.

Thanks. That is pretty consistent up until this year.

I had heard it suggested that he wasn't wanted by Athletico for a long time, I guess that is because he is a dingdong rather than because of ability or form.

 

[scaramanga]

Fwiw, I've just edited my post to include Ronaldo and Messi' figures for comparison... Quite surprised at how low Ronaldo' conversion rates have been.

Surprises me too. Is that league and cups or just league?

I remember seeing stats that had him much higher than that.

Edit: Just thought, could the difference be free kicks?

 

[Bedfordspurs]

Two very useful measures for working out if a striker is good or on a hot streak are goals per shot and goals per on target shot.

I was somewhat surprised to find out that most top level strikers all convert chances at a roughly similar rate, the better ones are obviously towards the top, but it's not entirely inaccurate to state that the better strikers score more by taking more shots (although that is a little simplistic).

Vardy (and Mahrez) are converting chances at a very high rate and are incredibly unlikely to continue that way, simply because nobody does - not even Messi or Ronaldo (although both are closer than most).

Vardy's shot conversion rate this season is double that of his for last season. Players don't double their own conversion rates and stay there - not over the long term. Much like with Ade under Captain Bellend, the conversion rate will drop and so will the team performances with it.

Now that is a great measure and reflects a "real" picture

 

[Bedfordspurs]

Be good to see that all in a table with the amount of shots to see if players who get more chances take more if that makes sense... I guess you could multiply the number of goals,scored in a Season by the percentile to get the shots number.... It would then reflect on a teams dominance or if you aligned it to a teams shots... How reliant they are on them for their chances

I mean Costa last year was the focus of all Chelsea attacks and this year with no one else weighing in other than Willian they look blunt. We however haven't suffered much when Kane hasn't scored as others have... Hence why Alli, so and Lamella plus Toby and Dier all have really respectable figures

 

[SteveAWOL]

Surprises me too. Is that league and cups or just league?

I remember seeing stats that had him much higher than that.

Edit: Just thought, could the difference be free kicks?

Just the La Liga figures I've got from Squawka and WhoScored.

15/16: 14 goals from 114 attempts = 12.2%
14/15: 48 goals from 225 attempts = 21.3%
13/14: 31 goals from 216 attempts = 14.4%
12/13: 34 goals from 235 attempts = 14.4%
11/12: 46 goals from 264 attempts = 17.4%
10/11: 40 goals from 250 attempts = 16.0%
09/10: 46 goals from 211 attempts = 21.8%

Around half of Ronaldo' attempts are from outside the area (I can't see a filter for how many of those are FKs but I've seen a figure of 6% mentioned as his FK conversion rate) compared to barely 1 in 8 by Costa, which probably explains why the latter' shot conversion rate is so much higher than Ronaldo's.

I believe the ExpG metric is designed to account for this sort of thing but that data isn't widely available afaik.

 

[scaramanga]

Just the La Liga figures I've got from Squawka and WhoScored.

15/16: 14 goals from 114 attempts = 12.2%
14/15: 48 goals from 225 attempts = 21.3%
13/14: 31 goals from 216 attempts = 14.4%
12/13: 34 goals from 235 attempts = 14.4%
11/12: 46 goals from 264 attempts = 17.4%
10/11: 40 goals from 250 attempts = 16.0%
09/10: 46 goals from 211 attempts = 21.8%

Around half of Ronaldo' attempts are from outside the area (I can't see a filter for how many of those are FKs but I've seen a figure of 6% mentioned as his FK conversion rate) compared to barely 1 in 8 by Costa, which probably explains why the latter' shot conversion rate is so much higher than Ronaldo's.

I believe the ExpG metric is designed to account for this sort of thing but that data isn't widely available afaik.

Thanks. You're right about the ExpG - I've hunted for it before.

It's not too hard to calculate with OPTA data but they don't like sharing.