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Regressing to the mean

milo said:
I'll add to this just to be clear. Does anyone think that this applies to our performances this season?
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Quite the opposite.

Our results have been pretty much in line with our expG all season. Our point average was slightly under when we were drawing a lot of games but not by much IIRC
 
Yea I think redknapp could have come up with more realistic targets for levy to go for than tevez as well! Redknapp lost the plot after the England links.
 
Modric THFC said:
We are were we usually are half way through the season since Redknapp took over.
Points from 19 games from the last few seasons.

15/16 35
14/15 31
13/14 34
12/13 33
11/12 42
10/11 33
09/10 34

We still should have won the league in 11/12
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Looking at previous seasons is pointless, everyone bar the bottom few are beating everyone so if you have the same points this season as in previous seasons then you are definitely doing better.....
 
Bedfordspurs said:
Best Spurs TEAM I've seen since 87 and 82

Confront bake in every position and genuinely (not luckily) able to beat everyone with down confort on our day. Some players who are the best in their position in the division and all that would rank in the very top tier of the division

A manager as hungry as the fans and players who truly give a brick...

This is 100% a massive leap forward from 18 months ago
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What language was this posted in ?

Did you have your mobile device set on the Cake setting again?

Happy New Year, BTW.
 
StephenH said:
Stop bloody moaning - for pity sake we are 4th and doing well!
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Nobody was moaning, least of all me. I was simply wondering if anyone on here felt that we had regressed to the mean. I'll state again that after some initial reservations, I am delighted with our manager and think that this team has the most potential of any I have watched since my first visit to the lane 43 years ago. No complaints from me.
 
Yermiyahu said:
Nobody was moaning, least of all me. I was simply wondering if anyone on here felt that we had regressed to the mean. I'll state again that after some initial reservations, I am delighted with our manager and think that this team has the most potential of any I have watched since my first visit to the lane 43 years ago. No complaints from me.
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I do not understand how anyone could think that we have. To have done so, we would have had to either been massively over or under achieving recently.
 
I think this is an interesting debate so thank you @Yermiyahu . My knowledge of "regression to the mean" despite @milo 's provision of a definition is low. But my overriding feeling is that this team and manager has so much more potential than we are currently seeing. I get a little bit confused when thinking about this as I think put this group of players with another manager, say LVG, and I don't think we would be doing as well, and I probably wouldn't believe we had any potential.

I wouldn't change anything though. Our first XI is as good as anyone's and we can beat any team in this league on their best day. We just need consistency, better understanding of game management and better decision making in the final third. That will come with experience.
 
Gazzasrightboot said:
I think this is an interesting debate so thank you @Yermiyahu . My knowledge of "regression to the mean" despite @milo 's provision of a definition is low. But my overriding feeling is that this team and manager has so much more potential than we are currently seeing. I get a little bit confused when thinking about this as I think put this group of players with another manager, say LVG, and I don't think we would be doing as well, and I probably wouldn't believe we had any potential.

I wouldn't change anything though. Our first XI is as good as anyone's and we can beat any team in this league on their best day. We just need consistency, better understanding of game management and better decision making in the final third. That will come with experience.
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The team definitely has the potential to grow and continue to improve. That's different to regression to mean.

Regression to the mean is a technical way of saying that things tend to even out over time. The sprinter that breaks the world record will probably run closer to his average time on the next race; or the medical treatment that achieves stunning results on the first trial, will probably not be as efficacious on the second. Specifically, it refers to the tendency of a random variable that is highly distinct from the norm to return to "normal" over repeated tests. On average, observations tend to cluster around the mean,[1] whether or not they follow a really unusual value. It only becomes most obvious when a strange result (e.g. a hole-in-one in golf) is followed by something much more ordinary (a double-bogey)...

Sports
One way of thinking about "regression to the mean" is in terms of sports performance. In order to win a football championship, for example, it is not enough only to be a good team -- one needs to be both good and lucky. The team at the top of the standings in mid-season is likely to have been both good and lucky to that point, but cannot count on still being lucky for the rest of the season. For this reason, the team that is at the top of the standings at midseason is more likely to drop in standings than to remain at the top, and more likely to remain at the top than to improve (how does one improve from "the top," anyway?).

This observation has been tagged the "Sports Illustrated Jinx". The jinx states that a player or team featured on the cover of a sports magazine such as SI is likely to have a disappointing year the following season (or even a disappointing game the following week). But if you think about it, a player is only likely to make the cover once, and for some surprisingly good performance - something truly spectacular that requires not only their superlative skill, but also lots of luck to beat the superlative skill of their competitors. Athletes on the cover of Sports Illustrated are likely to be at the very top of their game, and at the top, the most likely direction to move next is down. The next year, although the player may still be as skilled, he or she will not be as lucky, and post scores closer to "typical".

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Regression_to_the_mean
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milo said:
The team definitely has the potential to grow and continue to improve. That's different to regression to mean.
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It is different indeed, however if we were (G-d forbid) to finish fifth again would that represent regressing to the mean?
 
If we are looking at teams in the league who we should expect to regress to mean, Leicester and Chelsea are the clear outliers from where we would expect them to be.
 
Or if we finish fourth this season, third next, second the season after and first the season after that, is that regressing to our mean?
 
Gazzasrightboot said:
Or if we finish fourth this season, third next, second the season after and first the season after that, is that regressing to our mean?
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arsspu-league-history.png

Arsenal's mean is somewhere between 3rd and 4th, probably closer to 4th now.

Our's is around 5th.
 
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