milo
Jack L. Jones
No. Regression to mean is going back to your average after an outlier.
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Regressing to the mean
- Thread starter Yermiyahu
- Start date
No. Regression to mean is going back to your average after an outlier.
Yermiyahu
Scott Parker
If that were to happen would Bassong be suspended??
Gazzasrightboot
Pascal Chimbonda
Arsenal's mean is somewhere between 3rd and 4th, probably closer to 4th now.
Our's is around 5th.
Yeah I know. I was just being fanciful. Whilst I do see the logic in this, and have no doubts that this is true, I do also think that we are improving our mean meaning that we should be expecting to be better so long as we kep this group of players and manager together.
milo
Jack L. Jones
Absolutely but that is different to regression to mean. The challenge to us is to make sure that the growth is organic and we can survive changing manager or losing key players without a dip in performance.
Gazzasrightboot
Pascal Chimbonda
Gotcha! I think.........
milo
Jack L. Jones
It's worth reading up on "the curse of Sports Illustrated", the equivalent here would probably be a team's performance dropping after the manager has won manager of the month.
http://wmbriggs.com/post/63/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_Illustrated_cover_jinx
http://wmbriggs.com/post/63/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_Illustrated_cover_jinx
Gazzasrightboot
Pascal Chimbonda
Very interesting! So we have to be focused on rebasing our mean rather than hoping to outperform the sum of our parts which it seems we are doing.
milo
Jack L. Jones
Exactly.
Regression to mean is useful when looking at potential signings. There is a chance that someone might offer big money for Vardy in the next couple of windows. There is a very real likelihood that his form will return to his career average soon and that his true valuation should be based on this rather than the first half of this season.
Bedfordspurs
Arthur Rowe
How do you factor in level though as Vardys career average is better than 1 in 2.... Ok it wasn't always against premiership opposition but he also wasnt playing for a premiership level club
milo
Jack L. Jones
His record for Leicester is 41 goals in 123 games, spread across the Championship and Premier League. If we assume that this season is an outlier then his record before this season at Leicester was 26 goals in 106 games. I think the likelihood is that you are buying a 1 in 4 striker.
Bedfordspurs
Arthur Rowe
Surely you would use minutes on the pitch to get a realistic measure too
He was sub a lot and would have played arguably less minutes a lot of games
I'm not trying to say Vardy is the answer for anything just to use the stats logic you need all the right facts and details
milo
Jack L. Jones
I was only trying to make the point that he is over valued right now and it is unlikely that he will continue his current form. Of course when you are looking to sign a player you look at more than just goals to games.
Bedfordspurs
Arthur Rowe
You would hope so although a lot of fans don't see beyond that
He is arguably over valued but he could in theory have another good season and those stats suddenly get better
The key for me with him is his age being a negative
milo
Jack L. Jones
It would be very rare for a player to improve that dramatically at his age.
To bring this back to Spurs. I think that one of the issues with David Bentley is that we signed him after a hot season and he returned to his career average (mean) the moment he pulled on a Spurs shirt.
Roland Beurre
Peter Taylor
Thanks for the clarification.
There was no issue with the rest; I was largely riffing on the cake theme, hence the reference to "tier" (as in multi-tiered wedding cake) and the fact the manager was as hungry as the fans.
Forgive my weak attempt at humous ... er ... humour.
Bedfordspurs
Arthur Rowe
Damn you
Two very useful measures for working out if a striker is good or on a hot streak are goals per shot and goals per on target shot.
I was somewhat surprised to find out that most top level strikers all convert chances at a roughly similar rate, the better ones are obviously towards the top, but it's not entirely inaccurate to state that the better strikers score more by taking more shots (although that is a little simplistic).
Vardy (and Mahrez) are converting chances at a very high rate and are incredibly unlikely to continue that way, simply because nobody does - not even Messi or Ronaldo (although both are closer than most).
Vardy's shot conversion rate this season is double that of his for last season. Players don't double their own conversion rates and stay there - not over the long term. Much like with Ade under Captain Bellend, the conversion rate will drop and so will the team performances with it.
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milo
Jack L. Jones
Interesting stuff @scaramanga - out of interest, do you know what Costa's career stats are like?