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Coronavirus

More people have now lost their lives to this disease, than are seated on a match day at our new Wall of Sound end..:(

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I'm a bit puzzled by this talk of not lifting the lockdown until there is 'no risk of a second peak'. That surely doesn't happen before a vaccine arrives, or 'herd immunity' is reached by other means. Short of one of those things happening, isn't it almost inevitable that cases will re-spike upon the lifting of restrictions?

Am I missing something here?
 
Parklaner81 said:
I'm a bit puzzled by this talk of not lifting the lockdown until there is 'no risk of a second peak'. That surely doesn't happen before a vaccine arrives, or 'herd immunity' is reached by other means. Short of one of those things happening, isn't it almost inevitable that cases will re-spike upon the lifting of restrictions?

Am I missing something here?
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Thats my understanding as well.. unless they are planning a strategy of testing and tracing that would actually prevent a 'second peak'... although the term Peak is misleading a lot of people.
 
Parklaner81 said:
I'm a bit puzzled by this talk of not lifting the lockdown until there is 'no risk of a second peak'. That surely doesn't happen before a vaccine arrives, or 'herd immunity' is reached by other means. Short of one of those things happening, isn't it almost inevitable that cases will re-spike upon the lifting of restrictions?

Am I missing something here?
Click to expand...

Im not sure, but there can’t be ‘herd immunity’ without a vaccine, given that all of the emerging evidence seems to suggest that this is like most other coronaviruses, in that it can be caught more than once. Boris’s scientists didn’t seem able to work that one out.

I see we are back in the land of 800+ dead (in reality, probably nearer to 1200+ once deaths outside hospitals are factored in). All too familiar territory.
 
dingdongo said:
I think this issue came up before and there was a proposal to charge 15 quid or something for an appointment. Then there was an outcry as people think the NHS should be completely free etc etc
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I think they suggested a £10 charge for a missed appointment then there was an outcry and people saying it would affect the already disadvantaged who have mobility issues or poorer people who don't have a phone and can't get text reminders etc. I'm sure there's a way to get around those issues and paying £10 for a missed appointment is more than reasonable.
 
Mikey10 said:
Im not sure, but there can’t be ‘herd immunity’ without a vaccine, given that all of the emerging evidence seems to suggest that this is like most other coronaviruses, in that it can be caught more than once. Boris’s scientists didn’t seem able to work that one out.

I see we are back in the land of 800+ dead (in reality, probably nearer to 1200+ once deaths outside hospitals are factored in). All too familiar territory.
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Think it’s a case of catching up from weekend - which has been happening for past few weeks
 
Mikey10 said:
Problem is it then stays at that level until the next weekend.
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In theory, I think the benefits of the lockdown ought to start coming through in the numbers any time now - given that it's potentially a several week process from infection to hospital admission for the severest cases.

I'm still struggling to understand how the whole cycle doesn't just rinse and repeat once restrictions are lifted though.
 
Parklaner81 said:
I'm a bit puzzled by this talk of not lifting the lockdown until there is 'no risk of a second peak'. That surely doesn't happen before a vaccine arrives, or 'herd immunity' is reached by other means. Short of one of those things happening, isn't it almost inevitable that cases will re-spike upon the lifting of restrictions?

Am I missing something here?
Click to expand...

Nothing missed that’s how I had it. Three options

- look down till vaccine

- Herd immunity

- lockdown to get numbers down, back to work, spike then isolate again.

That’s always been a clear path based on what the options are
 
Grays_1890 said:
Nothing missed that’s how I had it. Three options

- look down till vaccine

- Herd immunity

- lockdown to get numbers down, back to work, spike then isolate again.

That’s always been a clear path based on what the options are
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And yet, none of that seems to reconcile with the statement 'no risk of a second peak' alongside a general expectation that restrictions will be relaxed in the coming weeks.

The top two would appear to be longer term horizons (many months at least), while the latter by it's very nature is likely to involve a 'second peak'.

...maybe @DTA has a point, and it turns on interpretation of the phrase 'second peak'?
 
Parklaner81 said:
And yet, none of that seems to reconcile with the statement 'no risk of a second peak' alongside a general expectation that restrictions will be relaxed in the coming weeks.

The top two would appear to be longer term horizons (many months at least), while the latter by it's very nature is likely to involve a 'second peak'.

...maybe @DTA has a point, and it turns on interpretation of the phrase 'second peak'?
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I’m more than expecting to go back to work by end of May and end of June latest and their be a second spike.
 
Presumably the idea would be we'd handle outbreaks better at local levels, that must be what other places are doing that are already relaxing their lockdowns?

We'll probably balls it up but still.
 
How big would expect a 2nd spike to be do you think? Surely a sizeable chunk of the population have had the virus in the last couple of months (with or without symptoms). Remove those that have recovered, those that had it but didnt know it or had only minor symptoms and those that have sadly passed away and the numbers should be significantly lower right?
 
A huge row is starting in Germany over the Bundesliga. The minister of health and various regional leaders where talking on monday about starting the Bundesliga.
Today however Robert Koch Institute who are pretty much running the country right made a statement that they didnt think the thousands of tests for players and referees would be a good use of limited testing available.

I imagine it will be much worse in England. With frontline workers frequently dying. I can't see any government allowing "overpaid" footballers get priority testing.
 
dingdongo said:
How big would expect a 2nd spike to be do you think? Surely a sizeable chunk of the population have had the virus in the last couple of months (with or without symptoms). Remove those that have recovered, those that had it but didnt know it or had only minor symptoms and those that have sadly passed away and the numbers should be significantly lower right?
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The evidence is looking strong that contraction and recovery does not equal immunity.
So you talking full population.
 
Glenda's Legs said:
Fair enough, I should know better than to assume. It doesn't surprise me but it seems like a glaring inefficiency (assuming any central function would be up to the task of course). Thinking about it more I can see that as Trusts are much like standalone companies, have their own management structures, budgets etc., that they might act independently. But you'd think it wouldn't be beyond the wit of those in authority to have certain shared services where costs can be saved, purchasing being one.

Edit : I don't know how the NHS and its Trusts is structured. If the Trusts are truly independent orgs then collaboration on purchasing may not be legally possible.
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IMO, the closer we can get to a publicly funded, private healthcare system, the better.

I don't believe the issue is the independence of the trusts, it's the centralised aspect of it. Having to get a central system to approve suppliers/products can work if everyone has enough time for bureaucracy and paper shuffling. Being able to decide completely independently which products to purchase would speed things up.

That's more a side effect of having a healthcare system that's 70 years out of date though.
 
dingdongo said:
How big would expect a 2nd spike to be do you think? Surely a sizeable chunk of the population have had the virus in the last couple of months (with or without symptoms). Remove those that have recovered, those that had it but didnt know it or had only minor symptoms and those that have sadly passed away and the numbers should be significantly lower right?
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A lot of the emerging evidence from random testing seems to suggest only 1 -3% of populations have had it, although there are some studies which put it higher.

Herd immunity through infection doesn’t seem to work as a concept with this - it increasingly seems that people can be infected multiple times.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ive-recovery-south-korea-latest-a9472091.html
 
Mikey10 said:
A lot of the emerging evidence from random testing seems to suggest only 1 -3% of populations have had it, although there are some studies which put it higher.

Herd immunity through infection doesn’t seem to work as a concept with this - it increasingly seems that people can be infected multiple times.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ive-recovery-south-korea-latest-a9472091.html
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I think you're making claims without nearly enough evidence.

163 people is a very small number - especially when there are no tests of any vaguely reasonable accuracy. There's no evidence they had it the first time or the second time.

If you're relying on a vaccine for immunity then immunity has to be possible. If immunity isn't possible then the options are lockdown forever or just deal with it being out there and get on with life.
 
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