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Coronavirus

scaramanga said:
The problem is that without prior testing (which we obv didn't know to do), how do we know if they're asymptomatic because they're immune or immune because they've contracted it.

The sheer numbers of asymptomatic cases strongly suggests the latter. It would have been very difficult for the virus to have spread as it has if those numbers already had immunity.

As it stands, the best we can do is test for immunity and use self reporting to answer whether or not they've had it or not. That's obviously full of all the errors one would expect.
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But can you be asymptomatic without any previous immunity built up from coronavirus strains.

ie with no previous exposure will you always (first time round) have symptoms (flu like) because your immune system takes a while to get on top of it? If you always develop symptoms first time round, then someone that tests positive with no symptoms obviously has something already loaded thats helping that happen?
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
Is that unusual...does he normally not do saturdays? Or is a presser different to that other thing he does with a mate left and right??
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He does them far less frequently now. No set day or anything. I don’t think we’ve had one for a week or two?
But this is being reported as him bringing forward his announcement due to all the leaks to the press. Which government is furious about apparently. Hilarious for a government that operates by leaking stuff.
 
ricky2tricky4city said:
But can you be asymptomatic without any previous immunity built up from coronavirus strains.

ie with no previous exposure will you always (first time round) have symptoms (flu like) because your immune system takes a while to get on top of it? If you always develop symptoms first time round, then someone that tests positive with no symptoms obviously has something already loaded thats helping that happen?
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Nat Geo article I read back in July and said some people are just lucky and have a natural immunity, it did mention the name of the genes Like AC12 or that might be Line of Duty ha
 
Robspur12 said:
Taken from the WHO site on vaccine development for Covid 19

  • Inactivated or weakened virus vaccines, which use a form of the virus that has been inactivated or weakened so it doesn’t cause disease, but still generates an immune response.
  • Protein-based vaccines, which use harmless fragments of proteins or protein shells that mimic the COVID-19 virus to safely generate an immune response.
  • Viral vector vaccines, which use a virus that has been genetically engineered so that it can’t cause disease, but produces coronavirus proteins to safely generate an immune response.
  • RNA and DNA vaccines, a cutting-edge approach that uses genetically engineered RNA or DNA to generate a protein that itself safely prompts an immune response.

That is not letting the unaltered virus spread uncontrollably through the community.
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All of those methods simply replicate the body's reaction to the real virus.

As I previously stated, they do the same thing but are delivered by a different method.

Robspur12 said:
I am not an immunologist, but from what I have read recently immunity in mild cases of infection lasts no more than 3 months. That makes sense to me. Take another viral infection namely chicken pox. In very young infants it can affect them very mildly because of some residual immunity from mum. However the same infant can then get a second infection later in life. Whereas a more serious infection generally confers life long immunity.
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You've read some alarmist nonsense from someone who didn't understand what they were publishing.

It's detailed out a few pages back in this thread. It's perfectly normal for antibodies to disappear over the first few months, it would be incredibly detrimental to your health if they didn't.

The B cells and the two forms of T cells (the method your body uses to launch an attack on viruses it recognises) remain but don't show in antibody tests.

Think of it like a battle. You've developed a type of shell that can destroy a particular enemy tank. You fight them off but rather than filling all your munitions dumps with shells you won't use, you throw away the shells over a short period, but keep the moulds for making new ones along with some photos of the enemy tanks.

When you see tanks on the horizon, you look in you photo library and see that you have a mould for the munitions. You build them and fire.
 
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ricky2tricky4city said:
But can you be asymptomatic without any previous immunity built up from coronavirus strains.

ie with no previous exposure will you always (first time round) have symptoms (flu like) because your immune system takes a while to get on top of it? If you always develop symptoms first time round, then someone that tests positive with no symptoms obviously has something already loaded thats helping that happen?
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I don't think that's the case.

It's obvious that many (if not most) are asymptomatic, but I don't believe that can be entirely down to the presence of antibodies. There's just too many asymptomatic people around for that to be the case.
 
scaramanga said:
All of those methods simply replicate the body's reaction to the real virus.

As I previously stated, they do the same thing but are delivered by a different method.
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I think you are missing the point. It is absolutely not the same thing at all. The vaccines are developed, then tested to ensure the correct dose that llicits an appropriate immune response and maximizes the longevity of that immune response. You also are not delivering the live virus into the vulnerable but attenuating it. Controlled infection of an attenuated agent will establish some immunity much more effectively than the scatter gun uncontrolled transmission. The scattergun method equals lots of deaths and questionable immunity the former is much safer and scientifically sound.

scaramanga said:
You've read some alarmist nonsense from someone who didn't understand what they were publishing.

It's detailed out a few pages back in this thread. It's perfectly normal for antibodies to disappear over the first few months, it would be incredibly detrimental to your health if they didn't.

The B cells and the two forms of T cells (the method your body uses to launch an attack on viruses it recognises) remain but don't show in antibody tests.

Think of it like a battle. You've developed a type of shell that can destroy a particular enemy tank. You fight them off but rather than filling all your munitions dumps with shells you won't use, you throw away the shells over a short period, but keep the moulds for making new ones along with some photos of the enemy tanks.

When you see tanks on the horizon, you look in you photo library and see that you have a mould
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It is also quite normal for immunity to a virus to wane over time especially if you are being repeatedly exposed because there are so many community cases. That's why you have an annual flu injection and it correlates with the chicken pox example. That is also why there are likely to be reinfections. The information regarding Coronavirus immunity is from the European Centre for Disease Control. Albeit a European agency they are not known for publishing "alarmist nonsense." It is certainly quite plausible.
 
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Robspur12 said:
I think you are missing the point. It is absolutely not the same thing at all. The vaccines are developed, then tested to ensure the correct dose that llicits an appropriate immune response and maximizes the longevity of that immune response. You also are not delivering the live virus into the vulnerable but attenuating it. Controlled infection of an attenuated agent will establish some immunity much more effectively than the scatter gun uncontrolled transmission. The scattergun method equals lots of deaths and questionable immunity the former is much safer and scientifically sound.
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The former doesn't currently exist and may not for some time. We don't have the either/or option - our choices are to continue to live life or cower from a cough for an indeterminate amount of time, in the hope something that has never been done before can be done at a scale and pace never even conceived.

Robspur12 said:
It is also quite normal for immunity to a virus to wane over time especially if you are being repeatedly exposed because there are so many community cases. That's why you have an annual flu injection and it correlates with the chicken pox example. That is also why there are likely to be reinfections. The information regarding Coronavirus immunity is from the European Centre for Disease Control. Albeit a European agency they are not known for publishing "alarmist nonsense." It is certainly quite plausible.
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Influenza is not coronavorus. That's not even comparing apples with oranges, it's comparing apples with orange scented washing up liquid.

Influenza requires regular shots for 2 reasons:
  1. There are a lot of strains of influenza
  2. Influenza mutates very easily
Neither of those are true for COVID-19. It's a virus that has spread all over the world, yet has only had one minor mutation - one that has no effect on immunity.
 
Glenda's Legs said:
Reports suggest lockdown from Thursday (till 2nd December), after a parliamentary vote (Sky).
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Seems more nuanced than last time if reports are to be believed. Schools, universities and courts to remain open; construction to continue; outdoor exercise to be encouraged.
 
scaramanga said:
Influenza is not coronavorus. That's not even comparing apples with oranges, it's comparing apples with orange scented washing up liquid.

Influenza requires regular shots for 2 reasons:
  1. There are a lot of strains of influenza
  2. Influenza mutates very easily
Neither of those are true for COVID-19. It's a virus that has spread all over the world, yet has only had one minor mutation - one that has no effect on immunity.
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You're right influenza is not Covid 19. I was just making the point that immunity often isn't permanent especially in relation to viruses. The Data ECDC were putting forward related to other coronaviruses. On average the immunity observed with these lasted between 12-52 weeks.

In the end Scara, I agree we have to find a way of living with this virus. Unfortunately the Government had been caught in the neither one thing or another camp with it's response, the worst of every world.

What they have done is put in measures such as the 10pm curfew which has cost businesses but done nothing to stem the rise of cases. They have also bought in Regulations that are confusing to most people and they haven't been imaginative. Why for example did exams not get taken? There should have been a national effort to make them happen. And why for example did they not flip school holidays from summer to winter? Then lock down properly in the winter. SAGE were suggesting a circuit break to reduce the spread and the number of cases. The government have dithered for weeks, trying to placate their back benchers. Yet now they are going to do it anyway when the cases are already high. That means it is likely to be for longer.

Why wasn't the test and trace system localised from the start like the council's were suggesting. In Sutton for example the national test and trace were contacting around 80 % of contacts, the council brought this to over 90%.

It is difficult for the government but I just don't think they have been particularly competent. In business you have to be decisive. The same during a pandemic.
 
Was this the chart that changed PM's mind?
04d3cc86-574e-49b6-ac33-4ffbe07a9ce2.jpg



Laura Kuenssberg

Political editor

Not so long ago, the prime minister swore that it was not inevitable.

But day after day as the numbers of infections have risen, quibbles with local areas on their status continued, the moment has come closer, and now it seems almost sure to return.

Official government documents, seen by the BBC, make the case clear.

The papers suggest that the UK is on course for a significantly higher death toll from coronavirus than during the first wave of the pandemic, unless ministers implement further restrictions.

One of the documents, circulated among members of the government's Sage committee in recent days and discussed by Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak on Friday, says that "all models suggest a significantly higher peak than those estimated at any point in the current Reasonable Worst Case Scenario".

Read more from Laura here

upload_2020-10-31_16-33-43.gif
 
Robspur12 said:
You're right influenza is not Covid 19. I was just making the point that immunity often isn't permanent especially in relation to viruses. The Data ECDC were putting forward related to other coronaviruses. On average the immunity observed with these lasted between 12-52 weeks.

In the end Scara, I agree we have to find a way of living with this virus. Unfortunately the Government had been caught in the neither one thing or another camp with it's response, the worst of every world.

What they have done is put in measures such as the 10pm curfew which has cost businesses but done nothing to stem the rise of cases. They have also bought in Regulations that are confusing to most people and they haven't been imaginative. Why for example did exams not get taken? There should have been a national effort to make them happen. And why for example did they not flip school holidays from summer to winter? Then lock down properly in the winter. SAGE were suggesting a circuit break to reduce the spread and the number of cases. The government have dithered for weeks, trying to placate their back benchers. Yet now they are going to do it anyway when the cases are already high. That means it is likely to be for longer.

Why wasn't the test and trace system localised from the start like the council's were suggesting. In Sutton for example the national test and trace were contacting around 80 % of contacts, the council bought this to over 90%.

It is difficult for the government but I just don't think they have been particularly competent. In business you have to be decisive. The same during a pandemic.
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If you're comparing to other coronaviruses then at least that's apples to oranges. It's important to note that most coronaviruses are like the common cold, COVID-19 and SARS are quite different but similar to each other.

They don't mutate well and there aren't many strains. That means that immunity is not only likely to last, but also likely to work for both and all other similar strains.

I agree the government has been poor in most of this. I've restrained my criticism of them though as we essentially have a 2 party system and the other party wanted to lock down harder and longer (or at least claimed so with hindsight). That would have been significantly worse.
 
Glenda's Legs said:
Reports suggest lockdown from Thursday (till 2nd December), after a parliamentary vote (Sky).
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Blimey. A month is gonna be a long time without the nice weather of the previous lockdown.
I guess at least they finally made a decision on something.
 
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