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Fourth - who are we going to beat to it?

LemonadeMoney said:
Didn't Martinez always have strong finishes to seasons with Wigan?
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Yes. And the thing I found most remarkable about that was that Martinez's players spent all season getting spanked, and yet at the end they were obviously still listening to him, and he was still able to get them up. For a team who loses every week to have a manager they still listen to speaks very highly of Martinez behind the scenes qualities. And one must assume the same will happen at Everton.

We boobed not taking him IMO.
 
Everton are playing some really nice football. The School of science is back!!
 
All we can really hope is that Arsenal end up getting 4th and United win the Champions league. I would absolutely pi55 msyelf.

Cant see us getting 4th, especially after we get tonked 5-0 by Pool on Sunday.
 
If Man Utd win the CL this year then I'm Skippy the kangaroo. Real chance that Everton will rob 4th spot ahead of the woolwich. We're we ever in Martinez? Probably not.
 
Got to say that's my gut feel Everton just sneaking Arsenal to 4th but it's going to be a lot closer than people think.
 
Have to say that, judging on their performance tonight, our home game against Sunderland is going to be tricky!
 
Sunday now will be very interesting after Liverpool today should have been causing against 10 men but instead limped over the line against 11 (awful refereeing). Their defence is **** and is no better than ours but no one seems to be Abel to defend against Liverpool very well either

It's the first time we have to play a team this season where we have had a bigger break than them IIRC and a full week of training against there 3 days.

We wont get 4th now and will be out of it before the last game of the season but I see **** dropping points against whoever they have before their semi final as all players go into protection mode to make sure their fit for the big game
 
Further evidence of how unlucky we've been this season...

So what is analysed in TSR? The Total Shots Ratio is the number of shots that a team takes in any one game, divided by the total number of shots in that game. Essentially, it provides the percentage of shots that a team takes against the number they concede. In short, you improve your TSR, and in all likelihood your season, by taking more shots, and/or restricting opportunities of opponents.

To get a team’s PDO you add conversion ratio and save ratio together and multiply by 1000 (the final step is purely cosmetic, as it takes out the small decimal numbers). This sounds complicated. Why does it work? A large part of a team’s success or failure comes down to luck. While better players will create more obvious goalscoring chances, and better goalkeepers will save more difficult shots, the vast majority of players within a similar level are of a relatively comparable standard.
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BjsHZHpCIAEOgOx.png


Hopefully Paulinho, Townsend and Soldado have a bit more luck in front of goal during the run-in...



Twitter / benjaminpugsley: The Premier League by TSR and PDO.
Can stats predict the Scottish Premiership? An introduction to PDO and TSR | Aberdeen | Sport | STV
http://www.squawka.com/football-player-rankings
 
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SteveAWOL said:
Further evidence of how unlucky we've been this season...



BjsHZHpCIAEOgOx.png


Hopefully Paulinho, Townsend and Soldado have a bit more luck in front of goal during the run-in...



Twitter / benjaminpugsley: The Premier League by TSR and PDO.
Can stats predict the Scottish Premiership? An introduction to PDO and TSR | Aberdeen | Sport | STV
http://www.squawka.com/football-player-rankings
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Surely that doesn't show that we've been unlucky, but rather that a) we don't create good chances and/or we're not good at taking our chances, and b) opposition's chances tend to be fewer but better because we often play a high line...?

And Paulinho isn't very good at shooting, Soldado's finishing is currently woeful, and all of Townsend's shots come from outside of the area - none of them are being unlucky!
 
SteveAWOL said:
Further evidence of how unlucky we've been this season...



BjsHZHpCIAEOgOx.png


Hopefully Paulinho, Townsend and Soldado have a bit more luck in front of goal during the run-in...



Twitter / benjaminpugsley: The Premier League by TSR and PDO.
Can stats predict the Scottish Premiership? An introduction to PDO and TSR | Aberdeen | Sport | STV
http://www.squawka.com/football-player-rankings
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Tsr is an indictor of how many games Andros Townsend has played for your clubs. And pdo is an ice hockey stat a sport where the quality of all shots on goal is is pretty much the same because the puck moves so fast. In football shooting pointlessly is not a good thing.
 
Bedfordspurs said:
Sunday now will be very interesting after Liverpool today should have been causing against 10 men but instead limped over the line against 11 (awful refereeing). Their defence is **** and is no better than ours but no one seems to be Abel to defend against Liverpool very well either

It's the first time we have to play a team this season where we have had a bigger break than them IIRC and a full week of training against there 3 days.

We wont get 4th now and will be out of it before the last game of the season but I see **** dropping points against whoever they have before their semi final as all players go into protection mode to make sure their fit for the big game
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They play Everton away next weekend, lose there, which I think could quite easily happen, and Everton may well even be in 4th place on GD after that match, with a game in hand
 
elltrev said:
Surely that doesn't show that we've been unlucky, but rather that a) we don't create good chances and/or we're not good at taking our chances, and b) opposition's chances tend to be fewer but better because we often play a high line...?

And Paulinho isn't very good at shooting, Soldado's finishing is currently woeful, and all of Townsend's shots come from outside of the area - none of them are being unlucky!
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I was thinking along the same lines! A high defensive line + long range shooting = great TSR + poor PDO for us; although it somehow works for Chelsea under Mourinho :-k

Soldado + Paulinho + Townsend = 11 goals from 156 shots
Negrado + Fernandinho + Navas = 17 goals from 116 shots
Eto'o + Oscar + Willian = 18 goals from 136 shots

Modric THFC said:
Tsr is an indictor of how many games Andros Townsend has played for your clubs. And pdo is an ice hockey stat a sport where the quality of all shots on goal is is pretty much the same because the puck moves so fast. In football shooting pointlessly is not a good thing.
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Agreed. According to these "football metrics" guys the TSR is a good indicator of a team' future performance, which is why they rated AVB so highly as we topped the league last season for shot dominance.

Although ManU romped to the league despite having only the 8th best TSR and, even with Bale' wonder goals, we had one of the worst PDO figures in the league... Guess we've just been very unlucky 2 seasons on the trot 8-[



http://jameswgrayson.wordpress.com/2013/05/28/the-2012-13-premiership-season-in-one-graphic/
 
Les Ferdinand is to blame, the guy could coach the world class out of Messi given a few training sessions.
 
You know that if Joe Lewis went mental and bought us Messi, that for us he'd be turd and then get a mysterious back injury that kept him out for a ridiculous amount of time before we release him on a free to West Ham or Stoke at the end of the season
 
Huddy said:
Les Ferdinand is to blame, the guy could coach the world class out of Messi given a few training sessions.
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What does anyone base their knowledge of Ferdinand's coaching on? It's the same as when Hughton was a coach here, somehow people knew exactly what he was like, and that he was rubbish, without ever taking part in a session he put on.

Jol always used to praise Hughton as a top coach, and Sherwood said Gylfi's sessions with Ferdinand helped him score the winner last weekend. Why we ragging on someone like that?
 
BrainOfLevy said:
What does anyone base their knowledge of Ferdinand's coaching on? It's the same as when Hughton was a coach here, somehow people knew exactly what he was like, and that he was rubbish, without ever taking part in a session he put on.

Jol always used to praise Hughton as a top coach, and Sherwood said Gylfi's sessions with Ferdinand helped him score the winner last weekend. Why we ragging on someone like that?
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1. He doesn't have a fancy name or reputation as a coach
2. He was brought in by Harry Redknapp so is perceived to only be there because he's one of 'the boys'
3. When he played for us he was pretty **** in comparison to his former glories

That probably makes up about 80% of it, the last 20% is probably because in all the time he's been here we've never had a real goal-scoring (20+ league goals a year) striker, and none of our strikers seem to have improved their strike rate under him.

There is evidence to suggest he's not very good, but this evidence is exaggerated by those who hold points 1, 2 and 3 against him.
 
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