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Coronavirus

NickTB said:
Have there been any outbreaks in Russia? I've yet to hear what's happening there.

Asking for a friend
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Closed some borders, anyone coming in from those locations gets 14 day quarantine. Numbers, so far reported, as mentioned already give or take 5-10.
No closures for shops/schools etc but that based on what has been seen elsewhere it could eventually happen.
 
SpurMeUp said:
What would be interesting - and governments must be doing this surely - is randomised testing of populations to see how prevalent the virus is in people who are not aware they have it.

We know that children hardly notice anything when they get it. We know that some (most fit) adults don't have severe symptoms. So is it possible you and I have it or have had the virus already?
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I've had the same thought. I work in a university (though am not there full time). Several weeks back there was low-level chatter/concern regarding the return of travelling Chinese students, and the theory that universities would be on the front line of any outbreak as a result. A couple of weeks ago now, I had the mildest-of-mild cold-like symptoms. It probably wasn't coronavirus, but it does make you wonder.
 
milo said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1238917834111156231
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I wonder how this will work alongside the talk of asking retired health workers to return to service if necessary? There will be a certain number of over-70's still active in the health and social care workforces. Exemptions, maybe?

Edit: It's a shame the data isn't a little bit more specific, but this shows that 25% of the social care workforce is in the 55 & over age bracket, rising to 35% for registered nurses. I know from my own experience that it's not uncommon for care workers to stay active well beyond 70. This is going to need some thinking about.

https://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/ad...ial-care-sector-and-workforce-in-England.aspx
 
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Parklaner81 said:
I've had the same thought. I work in a university (though am not there full time). Several weeks back there was low-level chatter/concern regarding the return of travelling Chinese students, and the theory that universities would be on the front line of any outbreak as a result. A couple of weeks ago now, I had the mildest-of-mild cold-like symptoms. It probably wasn't coronavirus, but it does make you wonder.
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It is quite possible.

Cruise ships allowed for an interesting study - because everyone was tested. The mortality rate was 0.5%, but those who take cruises tend to be less mobile and in less good shape. There was another German study where they followed 9 people who were tested positive for the virus. People 'shed' the virus most in the early stages when healthy. Of the 9

Most had coughs, but only two developed a fever, the most common symptom reported in other studies. Most symptoms were mild and one person never developed any at all. One patient developed severe pneumonia.

Two of the nine had runny noses, previously reported as a rare symptom of COVID-19. Another four had stuffy noses and reported that they couldn’t smell or taste anything. “In all of our patients, it cleared up, but it was a little bit annoying for two weeks or so,” Wendtner says. “They could order anything they wanted [to eat], but [if] you can’t taste it, it doesn’t matter.”

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-most-contagious-before-during-first-week-symptoms
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
Not really. They lose money on online deliveries, and the staples people are hoarding are low margin.
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Popped into one on the way home. It wasn't just toilet roll and tins, meat, even pot noodles were low!

Global hysteria. Not only do we live in a global economy, we increasingly live in a global society where viruses, fear and behaviours are also intertwined. Images of closed streets in Spain increases panic buying in UK, data from China (which can be politically manipulated) fuel the World Health Organisation and lead to global panic. Giving figures of 3% mortality is shocking irresponsible when there isn't clear data, and evidence to suggest mortality rates are far lower. Was it the WHO who spread these figures?

I actually think the way the UK government have tried to approach it is a bit more realistic, but they have been overtaken by the media hysteria.
 
SpurMeUp said:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-death-rate
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The article doesn't say that the mortality rate on the Diamond Princess was 0.5%. It says that it was 0.9% and then speculates on what it might be in the wider population. I think that it is fair to say that cruise ship customers are not a representative demographic though and it would be reasonable to expect the death toll be higher there, based on what we know so far. There are still 15 Diamond Princess passengers in a critical condition, so the numbers could change dramatically yet.
 
SpurMeUp said:
Popped into one on the way home. It wasn't just toilet roll and tins, meat, even pot noodles were low!

Global hysteria. Not only do we live in a global economy, we increasingly live in a global society where viruses, fear and behaviours are also intertwined. Images of closed streets in Spain increases panic buying in UK, data from China (which can be politically manipulated) fuel the World Health Organisation and lead to global panic. Giving figures of 3% mortality is shocking irresponsible when there isn't clear data, and evidence to suggest mortality rates are far lower. Was it the WHO who spread these figures?

I actually think the way the UK government have tried to approach it is a bit more realistic, but they have been overtaken by the media hysteria.
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I generally agree with what you're saying but as with so many things, it's a hell of a tricky balancing act.

I certainly hear you that the reported mortality rates have tended to lack some context (ie. the high likelihood of a very large number of undiagnosed cases pulling the rate down significantly), and this may well have contributed to the spread of panic and hysteria that we're seeing.

At the same though, there's a risk that if it's played down too much, people might not act with the level of responsibility required (I've certainly witnessed several prime examples of this in recent days). To me the British response has perhaps been slightly underdone in some areas, but I actually admired the attempt at retaining some semblance of a measured approach. As you say though, that's now likely to be overtaken by events elsewhere.
 
milo said:
The article doesn't say that the mortality rate on the Diamond Princess was 0.5%. It says that it was 0.9% and then speculates on what it might be in the wider population. I think that it is fair to say that cruise ship customers are not a representative demographic though and it would be reasonable to expect the death toll be higher there, based on what we know so far. There are still 15 Diamond Princess passengers in a critical condition, so the numbers could change dramatically yet.
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Infections and deaths onboard suggest that the disease’s true fatality ratio in China is about 0.5 percent, though that number may vary from place to place, researchers report March 9 in a paper posted at MedRxiv.org.
 
I just tried to book in my usual Sainsbury's grocery delivery for Saturday morning, not one slot available for the next 3 weeks
 
galeforce said:
I don’t doubt some are panic buying, but maybe this is just what things look like with a slight supply chain restriction and everybody doing a 7 day shop on the same day.
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I agree. It doesn’t take much extra buying to clear a supermarket shelf.

As a student job I worked in a supermarket for a while and the aim was for products to to go straight from delivery truck to the shelves. Storing / moving stuff is time consuming and risks damages etc.

In a way it’s good some people are stocking up now, hopefully less demand later.
 
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