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Serious relegation fears

Our results would probably need to be 8W, 2D, 2L (67% win rate), over the last 12 to win the title ... our record today is 14W, 9D, 3L (about a 53% win rate)

Our ppg average has been steadily increasing all season. Beat Swansea and we're at exactly 2 ppg.
 
Our results would probably need to be 8W, 2D, 2L (67% win rate), over the last 12 to win the title ... our record today is 14W, 9D, 3L (about a 53% win rate)

Our conversion of draws into wins has been Improving since the end of November,up till then we had 7 draws in the league.
 
Our ppg average has been steadily increasing all season. Beat Swansea and we're at exactly 2 ppg.

Agreed, but it would take us 6W on the trot to get to there, we actually need 2:15 ppg to the end.

Not saying we can't, just putting some perspective on it.
 
Our results would probably need to be 8W, 2D, 2L (67% win rate), over the last 12 to win the title ... our record today is 14W, 9D, 3L (about a 53% win rate)

I think the most important thing in these final 12 games is fitness and stamina.
The margins will be fine, and I think we will see that this season it is going to be as much about who has the gas left in their tank (including off the bench) as skill. In prior seasons your 45 million quid 'stars' have been able to take the ball and run with it, but this season that isn't so. I think Leicester have the energy but not the true squad depth place-for-place. I still believe the fact we have been able to give our 26 players some good game time with a decent degree of consistency will prove a vital factor. When someone comes in, because of how we train and how we subtly rotate the squad, there is never a noticeable slack/drop-off. I believe Njie will be fit again coming into the final weeks, and what an option he could be off the bench?!!!
Oh...and Soton/Forster (as I've said before) will have a massive influence; the man is a freak of nature.
 
i think we will need 9 wins and one of those needs to be Arsenal. 8 wins and a couple of draws may do it though. Can we do it? Yes. Will we do it? No.

I fancy Arsenal to go pretty much unbeaten for the remainder of the season. There is no logic in that, its just always the arsenal way during the run in.
 
i think we will need 9 wins and one of those needs to be Arsenal. 8 wins and a couple of draws may do it though. Can we do it? Yes. Will we do it? No.

I fancy Arsenal to go pretty much unbeaten for the remainder of the season. There is no logic in that, its just always the arsenal way during the run in.

First they throw away the title, then get knocked out of the CL and then go on a massive run to scrape into fourth.
 
Our results would probably need to be 8W, 2D, 2L (67% win rate), over the last 12 to win the title ... our record today is 14W, 9D, 3L (about a 53% win rate)

I agree with the Estimate On what we need but the win rate is skewed a lot by our start to the season

Every game we have drawn we have been the better side by some margin. Some of those games were teams desperate not to lose like Chelsea and some were horrendous unlucky or poorly managed by the team like Stoke and Swansea. We won't make those stakes again, but it doesnt rule out other errors.

Lately the big change has been converting draws into wins now and it showed on Sunday the players have it in them to do that. I haven't seen that from any other top 4 side to turn around when under the cosh and win and that's a huge thing in our favour too.
 
i think we will need 9 wins and one of those needs to be Arsenal. 8 wins and a couple of draws may do it though. Can we do it? Yes. Will we do it? No.

I fancy Arsenal to go pretty much unbeaten for the remainder of the season. There is no logic in that, its just always the arsenal way during the run in.

I really think that Le'Arse capitilize at the end of season on mid table teams letting off. They seem to steam roll teams at the tail end of the season that they had trouble with at the start.
 
Our last 12 reads 8 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses.

Our first meeting with our remaining opponents: 4-6-2. 2-3-1 for those we now have at home and same for those we play away.
 
I look at our run in differently. The whole ppg thing is just a numbers game. We are as good as any team in the league and basically all we need is Leicester to draw just one fixture, and then it's game on. Match the results of our opponents and we've won it. :)

Back in reality land I don't really see that happening, but I guess we have a 1 in 4 chance or something like that. I would have taken that at the start of the season.
 
I really think that Le'Arse capitilize at the end of season on mid table teams letting off. They seem to steam roll teams at the tail end of the season that they had trouble with at the start.

There was a point made on radio over the weekend that their steamroller endings to seasons have come when they have been 5th and chasing the pack. When they have been in and around the top 2/3, they have traditionally shat it.
 
Here's what I think are the most important fixtures left for the season;

28/2
Man U v Arsenal

02/03
West Ham v Tottenham
Liverpool v City

05/03
Tottenham v Arsenal

20/03
Emirates Marketing Project v Man U

02/04
Liverpool v Tottenham

09/04
Tottenham v Man U
West Ham v Arsenal

30/04
Chelsea v Tottenham
Man U v Leicester

07/05
Emirates Marketing Project v Arsenal

15/05
Chelsea v Leicester
 
Not an expert, but from what I've learned this depends on the bookmaker. For the corner shop bookmaker or smaller online operator that's probably more the case imo. For the larger online bookmakers that can afford more risk and variance I think the odds are more controlled by what they think the outcome will be.


completely wrong, bookmakers create books based on getting equal action, they actually don't care what the outcome is if they have a balanced book
 
Seen a few replies saying Arsenal is a "must win" at home. We have to get away from that attitude. We are ahead of them on GD, we won't be out of tocuh even if we drew or worse. We have to see the bigger picture here of the run in and not have all focus on that game.
 
Seen a few replies saying Arsenal is a "must win" at home. We have to get away from that attitude. We are ahead of them on GD, we won't be out of tocuh even if we drew or worse. We have to see the bigger picture here of the run in and not have all focus on that game.
Arsenal is a must win because if they slip up against Man Utd away (a strong possibility) then we have the chance to put real daylight between us and them if we win our games before it. Only if we have a 5/6 point lead over them after the game will I believe we have a good chance of winning the league
 
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