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Serious relegation fears

Leicester Fan from Jordinho's post said:
We have a better striker, better creative player, better central midfielders, better defensive unit and a goalkeeper just as good.
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Kasper Schmeichel is by no means as good as Lloris, for some reason lloris is underrated by other fans, imo he's the best keeper in the league. I've genuinely heard people say minglet or Adrian were better than him.

De Gea and Courtois are favoured imo by other fans because of the club's they play for, with De Gea benefitting from the extra exposure he is given as a result of his teams poor defending whilst his mistakes are explained away by fans & the media through a condemnation of the poor defensive performances infront of him.

I've heard people say Cech is currently better as well which is imo ridiculous.

Kane has done it for almost 2 seasons now, Vary is still to some extent an unknown quantity (although he obviously is a very good player, I'm not saying he isn't a player many would want in their team) and arguably it isn't clear if he can continue to replicate his form. I'd pick kane over him any day tbh. Mahrez is more in form than any creative player we have, I think the consistency he's shown in a notoriously inconsistent position is amazing.

We have the best goal difference in the league don't we? Also the best defensive record and imo the (over this season) the most in form centre back in the league in Alderweireld.
 
JellySpur said:
Kasper Schmeichel is by no means as good as Lloris, for some reason lloris is underrated by other fans, imo he's the best keeper in the league. I've genuinely heard people say minglet or Adrian were better than him.

De Gea and Courtois are favoured imo by other fans because of the club's they play for, with De Gea benefitting from the extra exposure he is given as a result of his teams poor defending whilst his mistakes are explained away by fans & the media through a condemnation of the poor defensive performances infront of him.

I've heard people say Cech is currently better as well which is imo ridiculous.

Kane has done it for almost 2 seasons now, Vary is still to some extent an unknown quantity (although he obviously is a very good player, I'm not saying he isn't a player many would want in their team) and arguably it isn't clear if he can continue to replicate his form. I'd pick kane over him any day tbh. Mahrez is more in form than any creative player we have, I think the consistency he's shown in a notoriously inconsistent position is amazing.

We have the best goal difference in the league don't we? Also the best defensive record and imo the (over this season) the most in form centre back in the league in Alderweireld.
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They have the better striker, better creative players, better midfielders and better defensive unit and their goalkeeper is as good as ours yet we have a much better goal difference than them...

Logic...
 
JellySpur said:
Kasper Schmeichel is by no means as good as Lloris, for some reason lloris is underrated by other fans, imo he's the best keeper in the league. I've genuinely heard people say minglet or Adrian were better than him.

De Gea and Courtois are favoured imo by other fans because of the club's they play for, with De Gea benefitting from the extra exposure he is given as a result of his teams poor defending whilst his mistakes are explained away by fans & the media through a condemnation of the poor defensive performances infront of him.

I've heard people say Cech is currently better as well which is imo ridiculous.
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Neuer is the only other GK in the world at Lloris' level IMO. But keep quiet about it - him staying underrated/lower profile is very much to our benefit
 
Gutter Boy said:
Neuer is the only other GK in the world at Lloris' level IMO. But keep quiet about it - him staying underrated/lower profile is very much to our benefit
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I agree, even though Neuer seems like bit of an irrevalancy in the league for bayern, I'd say he's probably the top keeper of the current crop, though in some ways it'd be interesting to see lloris in a similar position. Not that he should ever leave, we'll get there.
 
Also worth remembering that while we have more games than Leicester, we also have a squad that's ready to play that amount of games. They get one injury to a defender and have to put on a man that makes me question my belief in evolutionary science as he seems only a generation or two removed from the neanderthals we all have somewhere in our extended family trees...

We will also have the choice to make the league or top priority and use a lot more of our squad players in the cup games if we want to.

I also agree with someone that pointed out that this long break for Leicester might not be the benefit they would have wanted. Two weeks to dwell on the point(s) lost against Arsenal isn't a good thing. And they need that extended period of rest a lot less than most teams as they only play once a week.
 
Leicester does have a seemingly easy fixture list left though. If we could swap our remaining fixtures with theirs, I would in a heartbeat. Seeing as they're out of the cups as well, I still think they're the favorite to win this.
 
Daisuk said:
Leicester does have a seemingly easy fixture list left though. If we could swap our remaining fixtures with theirs, I would in a heartbeat. Seeing as they're out of the cups as well, I still think they're the favorite to win this.
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Next 3-4 games could be vital for them. Their last 5 (West Ham, Swansea, Manu, Everton and Chelsea) aren't easy at all. Norwich, West Brom, Watford and Saudi Sportswashing Machine coming up now with 3 of those being home games. Could see all 4 of those more or less park the bus and be happy with a draw against Leicester and it will be a very different challenge for them. They will have the pressure on them to win and will perhaps have to dominate possession, at least for extended periods.

Edit: Bookmakers now have Arsenal as favourites, followed by us, Leicester and City. (oddschecker.com).
 
LemonadeMoney said:
And Leicester have been proving the bookies wrong all season.
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Thought it was interesting because a couple of weeks back (I think) they had Leicester as favourites for the first time.

There will always be statistical outliers and variance, but overall the bookmakers are pretty good at predictions of this kind.
 
braineclipse said:
Next 3-4 games could be vital for them. Their last 5 (West Ham, Swansea, Manu, Everton and Chelsea) aren't easy at all. Norwich, West Brom, Watford and Saudi Sportswashing Machine coming up now with 3 of those being home games. Could see all 4 of those more or less park the bus and be happy with a draw against Leicester and it will be a very different challenge for them. They will have the pressure on them to win and will perhaps have to dominate possession, at least for extended periods.

Edit: Bookmakers now have Arsenal as favourites, followed by us, Leicester and City. (oddschecker.com).
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I agree with you here.... Leicester's gameplan involves defending deep and letting the opposition come on to them, then exploiting that space with a long ball forward to Vardy and 4 or 5 players getting forward incredibly quickly in support. It has worked very well this season as teams have gone out and tried to beat Leicester instead of "respecting the point" (TM Sam Allardyce)

I think at this stage of the season Norwich, West Brom, Watford and Saudi Sportswashing Machine may well all set up defensively looking for a point, this will not leave Leicester space in behind for Vardy to exploit, nor space between the opposition's defence and midfield for Mahrez and co to exploit.
 
braineclipse said:
Thought it was interesting because a couple of weeks back (I think) they had Leicester as favourites for the first time.

There will always be statistical outliers and variance, but overall the bookmakers are pretty good at predictions of this kind.
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Bookmakers odds are merely based on the amount of money bet and laid (other than when initial odds are drawn up for an event). Therefore the predictions are all actually made by the general betting public and not the bookmakers.
 
alekaras said:
I can see us getting 9 wins in the last 12 and finishing with 78 points. Enough to win it, I would think. Key game is against the Scum.

Swansea - W
Spam - W
Scum - W
Villa - W
Bournemouth - W
Pool - L
Manure - W
Stoke - D
Brom - W
Chelsea - L
Southampton - W
Saudi Sportswashing Machine - W

I don't think these are unrealistic results and, no matter what's in it for the opposition, it's entirely up to us. Keep the focus!

COYS!
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You think we'll end up winning ten league games in a row?:eek:
If that happens i'll drink myself into a stupor with whatever you are sipping right now..

:D
 
Finney Is Back said:
Bookmakers odds are merely based on the amount of money bet and laid (other than when initial odds are drawn up for an event). Therefore the predictions are all actually made by the general betting public and not the bookmakers.
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Not an expert, but from what I've learned this depends on the bookmaker. For the corner shop bookmaker or smaller online operator that's probably more the case imo. For the larger online bookmakers that can afford more risk and variance I think the odds are more controlled by what they think the outcome will be.
 
braineclipse said:
Not an expert, but from what I've learned this depends on the bookmaker. For the corner shop bookmaker or smaller online operator that's probably more the case imo. For the larger online bookmakers that can afford more risk and variance I think the odds are more controlled by what they think the outcome will be.
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The larger operators have computer programs that calculate the odds based on what is laid. First a book is constructed that includes an element of 'overround' (the bookmakers profit). In years gone by a standard book would include a standard overround of around 15% but this is now far lower with the advent of betting exchanges. The book is then adjusted as bets are laid (and indeed as the exposure laid is bet on the exchanges).

I would say that in actual fact a small corner shop bookmaker is MORE likely to adjust the odds based on what they think the outcome is likely to be. The larger organisations are able to make a guaranteed return on most outcomes by simply running a standard book, due to the sheer weight of money that is bet with them.
 
glorygloryeze said:
You think we'll end up winning ten league games in a row?:eek:
If that happens i'll drink myself into a stupor with whatever you are sipping right now..

:D
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Yeah, it does look like 10 league wins in a row, doesn't it. On present form, however, I don't think it's unrealistic. Have a power shake (what I'm sipping) and you'll see. ;)
 
At the halfway stage of the season I took a look at our fixtures and estimated that we needed to get around 75 points for the Champions League. At that stage we had 35 points and to my mind, we had 10 fixtures that we should've been looking to win, leaving 9 games to grab another 10 points, something which I thought was well within our power.

To win the league though, would mean probably looking to get 15-22 points from those 9 games. Those games are against the sides in the top half of the table and we have already lost 3 of the possible 27 points by losing to Leicester. We will need to go on one hell of a run, beating a lot of the big boys in order to make the title. I guess it all comes down to belief.
 
Finney Is Back said:
The larger operators have computer programs that calculate the odds based on what is laid. First a book is constructed that includes an element of 'overround' (the bookmakers profit). In years gone by a standard book would include a standard overround of around 15% but this is now far lower with the advent of betting exchanges. The book is then adjusted as bets are laid (and indeed as the exposure laid is bet on the exchanges).

I would say that in actual fact a small corner shop bookmaker is MORE likely to adjust the odds based on what they think the outcome is likely to be. The larger organisations are able to make a guaranteed return on most outcomes by simply running a standard book, due to the sheer weight of money that is bet with them.
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Wouldn't the smaller bookmakers be more risk averse and need to accept a lower overall profit than larger bookmakers for the sake of short term profitability?

You're essentially saying that the larger bookmakers are leaving money on the table by not making predictions and rather running a lower profit guaranteed return. This seems strange to me.
 
Cochise said:
At the halfway stage of the season I took a look at our fixtures and estimated that we needed to get around 75 points for the Champions League. At that stage we had 35 points and to my mind, we had 10 fixtures that we should've been looking to win, leaving 9 games to grab another 10 points, something which I thought was well within our power.

To win the league though, would mean probably looking to get 15-22 points from those 9 games. Those games are against the sides in the top half of the table and we have already lost 3 of the possible 27 points by losing to Leicester. We will need to go on one hell of a run, beating a lot of the big boys in order to make the title. I guess it all comes down to belief.
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Our results would probably need to be 8W, 2D, 2L (67% win rate), over the last 12 to win the title ... our record today is 14W, 9D, 3L (about a 53% win rate)
 
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