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Politics, politics, politics

Labour's position is vote down the deal, hope that there is a General Election and if that doesn't materialise, push for a 2nd referendum. That was decided at conference.

If there is a General Election, it could come about in a couple of ways:

1. May insists that it's her deal or no deal. Her deal gets voted down, she insists on no deal. A confidence vote is called and 2/3rds of MPs decide that they don't want 'no-deal' so they opt to kick the government out and call for a general election.

2. May's deal gets voted down and she resigns/Tory Party call no confidence vote in her as leader and she loses. Brexit Tory becomes leader and is happy to go for 'no-deal' brexit. Parliament calls vote of no confidence in government to avoid no-deal and calls General Election, where public can choose between party of no-deal and Labour's deal.

I know that to call for an early election Parliament needs 2/3rds of MPs to vote for it. For a no-confidence vote, I'm not quite sure. Either way, I think there are 2/3rds of MPs who would go for an early election to try and avoid a no-deal Brexit.
 
I see the logic in what you are saying, I just dont agree. Aside from the EU explicitly stating this is the deal and they wont start again, I just dont see why they would. They have us in a severely weakened position, exactly where they wanted us, I dont see why they would commit to another 2 years of negotiation only to end up here again in 2021.

If I thought he was honouring the countries decision, I might respect him for it, but I dont. I think this is personal ambition and he couldnt give two bricks how the vote went.

I can see why they might if a Corbyn 'brexit' was a BINO that committed to continuing payments and FOM.
 
Labour's position is vote down the deal, hope that there is a General Election and if that doesn't materialise, push for a 2nd referendum. That was decided at conference.

If there is a General Election, it could come about in a couple of ways:

1. May insists that it's her deal or no deal. Her deal gets voted down, she insists on no deal. A confidence vote is called and 2/3rds of MPs decide that they don't want 'no-deal' so they opt to kick the government out and call for a general election.

2. May's deal gets voted down and she resigns/Tory Party call no confidence vote in her as leader and she loses. Brexit Tory becomes leader and is happy to go for 'no-deal' brexit. Parliament calls vote of no confidence in government to avoid no-deal and calls General Election, where public can choose between party of no-deal and Labour's deal.

I know that to call for an early election Parliament needs 2/3rds of MPs to vote for it. For a no-confidence vote, I'm not quite sure. Either way, I think there are 2/3rds of MPs who would go for an early election to try and avoid a no-deal Brexit.

No conf is simple majority in HoC, and then a fortnight over which no alternative government emerges. Makes the politics of it rather more complex.
 
Labour's position is vote down the deal, hope that there is a General Election and if that doesn't materialise, push for a 2nd referendum. That was decided at conference.

If there is a General Election, it could come about in a couple of ways:

1. May insists that it's her deal or no deal. Her deal gets voted down, she insists on no deal. A confidence vote is called and 2/3rds of MPs decide that they don't want 'no-deal' so they opt to kick the government out and call for a general election.

2. May's deal gets voted down and she resigns/Tory Party call no confidence vote in her as leader and she loses. Brexit Tory becomes leader and is happy to go for 'no-deal' brexit. Parliament calls vote of no confidence in government to avoid no-deal and calls General Election, where public can choose between party of no-deal and Labour's deal.

I know that to call for an early election Parliament needs 2/3rds of MPs to vote for it. For a no-confidence vote, I'm not quite sure. Either way, I think there are 2/3rds of MPs who would go for an early election to try and avoid a no-deal Brexit.

At conference, the decision to include a new vote was accepted rather begrudingly, wasnt it?

I stand to be corrected - but I dont think a vote of no confidence automatically means a general election, I think there is the possibility of a minority government first.

Though, of course, that wont get anything sorted by definition so a GE is probably more likely.

I can see why they might if a Corbyn 'brexit' was a BINO that committed to continuing payments and FOM.

Would beg the question of why even bother? Another 2 years negotiation and uncertainty? They could probably just apply some pressure now and watch it all collapse.
 
I don't think the EU are as happy with the deal as you seem to think they are - there is a lot that they wanted that they didn't get and if there is an option to get these things and do a deal with a partner rather than one that from the start made it clear they were competition (look at the language at the outset, easiest deal / they need us etc.) they would jump at the opportunity to renegotiate.

all imho.
 
what do labour do if there is a GE?

a party heavily remain led by the keenest of leavers, would we be swapping one party in crisis for another that would ride Corbyn into Downing Street then trigger its own leadership challenge...
 
I don't think the EU are as happy with the deal as you seem to think they are - there is a lot that they wanted that they didn't get and if there is an option to get these things and do a deal with a partner rather than one that from the start made it clear they were competition (look at the language at the outset, easiest deal / they need us etc.) they would jump at the opportunity to renegotiate.

all imho.

All a matter for perception, but IMHO it is the EU who took to the negotiations with the desire to defeat an opponent, rather than negotiate with a partner.

For me, they have bullied us all through the process.

I know you see things differently, but it is far from clear cut.

I wouldnt see a bunch of bluster from mugs like Boris as anything other than the hot air it is. Ive maintained throughout this could easily have been handled like grown ups and been simply about trade.

As you say yourself - the EU were never happy with that and want more influence and integration. Hows that for partnership...

So as it stands, they have won, defeated us, and are no doubt poised to maximise any leeway in the current agreement to take even more from a weak UK government. I simply dont see the extra "win" for them to justify another 2 years of all this.

Secondly, Im still pretty convinced itll all collapse anyway, at which point the EU get the thing they really wanted - the ultimate warning to everyone else without losing anything.


what do labour do if there is a GE?

a party heavily remain led by the keenest of leavers, would we be swapping one party in crisis for another that would ride Corbyn into Downing Street then trigger its own leadership challenge...

Completely fair point. What happens between Corbyn/McDonnell and the rest of their leadership when things really matter and decisions have to be made?

All well and good they are able to compromise now, their only intent is to get power and that unifies them. What happens if they do?

The party is far from one happy family all pulling in the same direction...
 
Would beg the question of why even bother? Another 2 years negotiation and uncertainty? They could probably just apply some pressure now and watch it all collapse.

I think the EU would get a far better 'deal', from their point of view, from negotiating with Corbyn (the very idea of which strikes me as entirely farcical) than what's been agreed with May, and so I can see their incentive to do so. I think their 'no renegotiation' line is aimed primarily at May / the Tory brexiteers / the present situation. If circumstances change it could easily change too.
 
I think the EU would get a far better 'deal', from their point of view, from negotiating with Corbyn (the very idea of which strikes me as entirely farcical) than what's been agreed with May, and so I can see their incentive to do so. I think their 'no renegotiation' line is aimed primarily at May / the Tory brexiteers / the present situation.

As you see - kind of covered above. A few things, for me
1) If things are close to collapse now (personally think they are) why not just apply pressure and let it all fall away? Remain happens, EU wins.
2) If Corbyn bends over and offers them whatever they want - will it get through parliament anyway?
- what if Labour won a GE with only a small majority, much like the Tories now? Would the EU fancy their chances of getting a better deal? Iffy at best, same again, then what - ANOTHER extension and renegotiation?
3) People have stated repeatedly they EU would be quite happy to watch us sink as a prohibitive example to the rest - some were even convinced that would be better than doing a deal with us for them, such is their omnipotence. Would this appeal now its within reach?
4) Maybe theyve just had enough of all this flimflam. Its dominated the agenda when they would much rather have been working on their ever closer union. They have us pretty well under heel, maybe its time to call it a day.


EDIT
5) Would Corbyn really offer them what they want? Seems pretty absolute in wanting out, as well as generally being radical where he can...
 
One I suspect Scara would support (at least, the final conclusion):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46349717
Are free ports the future?

Can "free ports" spark a post-Brexit manufacturing boom? Jonty Bloom reports from Teesside, which plans to become the UK's first free port, offering customs-free imports and hoping to bring back manufacturing jobs.

Teesside in the north east of England is an industrial landscape, all chemical and petrochemical works, power stations and docks. Old oil rigs are towed here to die.

At night in particular it looks like something out of a science-fiction movie, which is no coincidence because Teesside was the inspiration for the dystopian industrial landscape for Blade Runner.

But at the very centre of Teesside is a vast empty area dotted with enormous rusting buildings - the former steelworks of Redcar, which finally closed in 2015.

But now there is a plan to transform and revitalise this area by turning it into a free port.

A free port, sometimes called a free trade zone or special economic zone, is normally an area of a country where its taxes and tariffs do not apply. So you can import goods, store them and re-export them without bothering the tax collectors.

And these days they go further, allowing firms to import raw materials, make finished goods and then export them, with none of the border taxes that the rest of the country has to pay.

Within the EU's customs union large industrial free zones have limited use, after all you still have to pay customs taxes when bringing the goods into the EU from the free zone.

But after Brexit it could be a huge boost for areas like Teeside. For the mayor of the Tees Valley Ben Houchen, the man behind the idea, turning Teeside into a free port is just common sense.

"They have them in the Middle East, they have them in North America and in the Far East," he says. "It is a tool in our arsenal that we are not using."

Back to the future?
To see how well free ports can work, you have to travel to the other side of the British Isles and back to the 1960s.

Shannon Airport, on the Republic of Ireland's west coast, started as a flying boat base where planes could refuel just before attempting the long Atlantic crossing - a journey so perilous and tough that the local hotel barkeeper invented Irish coffee to revive passengers.

But by the 1960s planes could easily make it across the pond in one go. Shannon was facing a bleak future.

But then Shannon Airport's boss came up with the idea of making the airport an industrial free port, not just one with warehousing and depots for storing goods tax-free before they were exported again, but one with factories making pianos, textiles and electronic components.

It was a triumph. The whole area is now one massive industrial estate, full of high-tech companies, state-of-the-art office blocks, and locally grown companies employing tens of thousands.

But that does raise a problem for Teesside - free ports work best by rapidly turning an agrarian, closed economy into an open and industrialised one, just as happened in Ireland and to a far larger extent in China.

The UK, on the other hand, has been an open and industrialised economy at least since Victorian times.

Free ports or freeloaders?
Free ports can also just encourage firms and investment to move into the free port where they pay no tax, away from other parts of the country where they do pay tax.

Dr Meredith Crowley is a professor of economics at Cambridge University and an expert on international trade policy.

"If I make canned food in one part of a country and I suddenly discover I use a lot of steel and there is a 10% discount in the free port… I would want to move there," she says.

"But that does not necessarily result in higher output or more workers."

However, the supporters of a Teesside free port believe they can prove that it will make more money than it costs.

Jerry Hopkinson is the chief operations officer at PD Ports, owner of Teesport, the main port on Teesside, and he took me on a tour of the river on his harbour launch to sing the praises of the scheme.

"By 2040 there will be a £600m benefit. By 2040, 40,000 new jobs will be created," he says. "What we need to do is demonstrate that the upside benefits is proportionally greater than the loss of revenues in term of taxes. We are doing the calculations that will demonstrate that to HM Treasury."

Even if that is true, a Teesside free port is not necessarily a good idea. It would be far more effective to cut tariffs for the whole country rather than abolish them for one small corner.

After all, this is what has happened in Shannon - free port status was not really necessary after Ireland joined the EU and slashed business taxes, and the breaks were whittled away until they finally disappeared in 2016.

Shannon, however, continues to attract investment, firms and jobs, as does Ireland as a whole.

There seems little reason why the UK as a whole cannot do the same, without needing to introduce free ports in Teesside or anywhere else.

You can hear the full story on free ports on In Business on BBC Radio 4 at 20:30 GMT on Thursday, 29 November and on BBC Sounds.
 
what do labour do if there is a GE?

a party heavily remain led by the keenest of leavers, would we be swapping one party in crisis for another that would ride Corbyn into Downing Street then trigger its own leadership challenge...

Corbyn is definitely a Eurosceptic, but both he and McDonnell rule out a 'no-deal' Brexit. So the spectrum of the Labour Party dealing with Brexit goes from Customs Union, with a fudge of keeping close alignment with EU over worker protections, environment, etc.etc all the way through to outright Remain, probably via a 'People's Vote.' This is a long way from the Tory Party, where they have a not insignificant amount of head-bangers who actively want no-deal, all the way to May whose deal still falls short of Labour's starting position.

Corbyn and McDonnell are very close to getting into number 10 and attempting to not only reverse Tory austerity, but move the whole Overton Window to the left and swing us away from Thatcherism/Neo-Liberalism/whatever you want to call it. IMO, they are not going to trash this opportunity over Brexit. The way the party has handled it so far has been to let the Tories drown in their own mess, and Brexit is a Tory mess.
 
No conf is simple majority in HoC, and then a fortnight over which no alternative government emerges. Makes the politics of it rather more complex.

Thank you for the info. So, if the DUP decide to withdraw their support for this Tory government, then there could be a majority for a no-confidence vote? I'd have thought that unlikely until recently, but the DUP have said that they could support a Norway+ style deal (because I'm guessing they don't really care about Brexit as such, just so long as Northern Ireland is treated in the same way as the rest of the UK and the Union remains intact).
 
Thank you for the info. So, if the DUP decide to withdraw their support for this Tory government, then there could be a majority for a no-confidence vote? I'd have thought that unlikely until recently, but the DUP have said that they could support a Norway+ style deal (because I'm guessing they don't really care about Brexit as such, just so long as Northern Ireland is treated in the same way as the rest of the UK and the Union remains intact).
Nor do they seem to care much about what's best for NI.
 
what do labour do if there is a GE?

a party heavily remain led by the keenest of leavers, would we be swapping one party in crisis for another that would ride Corbyn into Downing Street then trigger its own leadership challenge...
Swapping one party for another plus tax, plus anti-Semitism.
 
Thank you for the info. So, if the DUP decide to withdraw their support for this Tory government, then there could be a majority for a no-confidence vote? I'd have thought that unlikely until recently, but the DUP have said that they could support a Norway+ style deal (because I'm guessing they don't really care about Brexit as such, just so long as Northern Ireland is treated in the same way as the rest of the UK and the Union remains intact).
Despite all their bluster, the DUP will never, ever allow a situation where the likes of Corbyn and his terrorist buddies are in government.
 
Despite all their bluster, the DUP will never, ever allow a situation where the likes of Corbyn and his terrorist buddies are in government.

I think they'll go with whatever they feel keeps Northern Ireland more aligned with the rest of the UK rather than the Irish Republic. That's their whole thing, they don't exist for anything else. Arlene said just the other day that Norway+ would be a deal they'd be happy with. I'm not sure anybody saw that coming.
 
I think they'll go with whatever they feel keeps Northern Ireland more aligned with the rest of the UK rather than the Irish Republic. That's their whole thing, they don't exist for anything else. Arlene said just the other day that Norway+ would be a deal they'd be happy with. I'm not sure anybody saw that coming.
Considering his bedfellows, I sincerely doubt they would trust Corbyn to do anything in the interest of NI
 
Considering his bedfellows, I sincerely doubt they would trust Corbyn to do anything in the interest of NI

You could well be right. But Corbyn is in the short-term. In the longer term, they will be more concerned with NI being closer (politically) to the rUK than to the Irish Republic. If they choose to put May on notice, I don't think they will bluff. But we'll see, not long to wait now until the vote and the subsequent fallout.
 
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