Politics, politics, politics

[ShipOfTheseus]

Agree with all of this. Just wonder though, would it actually throw up a bit of a 'tactical voting' dilemma for the most committed remainers: 2nd preferencing May's deal would surely be their natural position, but it might also be their fiercest opponent in the final running, making them reluctant to back it? It's not hard to see the potential for perverse outcomes.

It shouldn't work like that, because the second preference would only come into effect if the first preference was eliminated. So there isn't a question of selecting a preferred opponent in the final stages, only one of selecting a preferred outcome from the less favoured.

 

[Parklaner81]

It shouldn't work like that, because the second preference would only come into effect if the first preference was eliminated. So there isn't a question of selecting a preferred opponent in the final stages, only one of selecting a preferred outcome from the less favoured.

So only the 2nd preference votes of the eliminated 1st choice would count going forward?

Forgive me, I haven't followed this debate for several months now so am clearly a little behind!

 

[ShipOfTheseus]

So only the 2nd preference votes of the eliminated 1st choice would count going forward?

Forgive me, I haven't followed this debate for several months now so am clearly a little behind!

Yup, exactly. I should have explained it in more depth; on the other hand I'm supposed to be writing for money at the moment and every moment of procrastination increases the likelihood that my children will starve in ditches.

 

[Parklaner81]

Yup, exactly. I should have explained it in more depth; on the other hand I'm supposed to be writing for money at the moment and every moment of procrastination increases the likelihood that my children will starve in ditches.

I can definitely relate to that, my work suffering is the primary reason I've stayed away from all this...

So my expectation is that it would essentially boil down to Remain vs. Deal, with 'Deal' surely scooping up 90% of the 2nd preference votes.

You'd still make remain favourite in those circumstances? I'm not sure I would.

 

[ShipOfTheseus]

I can definitely relate to that, my work suffering is the primary reason I've stayed away from all this...

So my expectation is that it would essentially boil down to Remain vs. Deal, with 'Deal' surely scooping up 90% of the 2nd preference votes.

You'd still make remain favourite in those circumstances? I'm not sure I would.

A lot of Brexiteers have said explicitly that staying in would be better than a deal which sacrifices sovereignty indefinitely. Now, sure, sovereignty is a wonkish concern, and may not resonate with leavers on the ground. But a 90:10 split looks generous to May.

 

[Parklaner81]

A lot of Brexiteers have said explicitly that staying in would be better than a deal which sacrifices sovereignty indefinitely. Now, sure, sovereignty is a wonkish concern, and may not resonate with leavers on the ground. But a 90:10 split looks generous to May.

It would be interesting to see whether or not they'd maintain that stance if definitively faced with the prospects outlined here.

 

[r-u-s-x]

If the Tories hold power are Labour able to insist upon anything?



QUOTE]
wont they need Labour votes to get a second referendum through parliament? The Government cant just say we are having a referendum unless they have full support from their own party + others.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Agreeing to have a referendum gives them the right to choose whats on the ballot?

 

[r-u-s-x]

Agreeing to have a referendum gives them the right to choose whats on the ballot?

No but if the Tories don't have the votes to get it through they can make / insist on amendments and if they get enough other votes (including from Tories) it goes through - don't forget Corbyns preferred choice is another GE rather than another Referendum.

I am not an expert but I think this is how it works, Parliament not Government decide on the final policy.

 

[Parklaner81]

No but if the Tories don't have the votes to get it through they can make / insist on amendments and if they get enough other votes (including from Tories) it goes through - don't forget Corbyns preferred choice is another GE rather than another Referendum.

I am not an expert but I think this is how it works, Parliament not Government decide on the final policy.

I wonder if May's avowed opposition to another referendum actually might make this the more likely outcome?

 

[r-u-s-x]

I wonder if May's avowed opposition to another referendum actually might make this the more likely outcome?

I cant really see how it helps myself - Its difficult to say that winning gives you the Publics consent on Brexit policy (especially as both main parties want out) as other things (Austerity etc) are also at issue. But it does seem to be what Labour leadership want, they want BREXIT but their version.

 

[Parklaner81]

I cant really see how it helps myself - Its difficult to say that winning gives you the Publics consent on Brexit policy (especially as both main parties want out) as other things (Austerity etc) are also at issue. But it does seem to be what Labour leadership want, they want BREXIT but their version.

I agree, I don't see massive benefit to it. I just wondered if it might be a more likely escape route for May than a full about-turn on another referendum, which given how she's made such a stand on respecting the first one, I can't see happening while she's PM.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

No but if the Tories don't have the votes to get it through they can make / insist on amendments and if they get enough other votes (including from Tories) it goes through - don't forget Corbyns preferred choice is another GE rather than another Referendum.

I am not an expert but I think this is how it works, Parliament not Government decide on the final policy.

Im not expert either - hands up entirely.

Theres every chance Labour would win a GE, so I would say May wont ever offer one. So itll have to be the whole vote of no confidence thing, and I cant see that happening yet.

Especially if a referendum is offered, its gives everyone what they want (perhaps 2nd choice, Labour want the power at all costs).

I suppose I could see Labour making noise about remaining being on the ballot, and May "conceding" to have it there. The sort of *wink wink* that suits everyone.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

I wonder if May's avowed opposition to another referendum actually might make this the more likely outcome?

She has the blinkers on. People voted out, got the job on seeing that through, will force it if necessary no matter how much mess it makes to save face.

Im not sure she is opposed to a referendum as such, rather opposed to straying off track - its the only thing keeping her in the job.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Jeremy Corbyn today defended his decision to vote down Theresa May's Brexit plan, declaring: "Nobody's going to allow No Deal."

The Labour leader insisted EU chiefs WILL allow the UK to renegotiate a pact - even after they said the current plan is the "only one possible".

EU leaders from 27 nations signed off Mrs May's 611-page plan on Sunday.

Now Theresa May is urging more than 100 Tory and DUP sceptics to change their minds and back it in a crucial vote in the House of Commons.

She has warned MPs - including Mr Corbyn - have a "duty" to back the deal on December 11 because otherwise the UK could crash out without an agreement.

But speaking to ITV's This Morning today, the Labour leader said there was "no chance" of it going through and predicted the EU would be "open to negotiations".

"They would understand we'd be coming in with a different mandate," he said.

He called for a general election if the deal is voted down in 12 days' time.

"At that point the new government, hopefully us, would negotiate the best we can with the EU," he said.

Mr Corbyn predicted there could be a second House of Commons vote. But he would not be drawn on whether Labour would back a second referendum after December 11.

He said only that a fresh referendum is "one of the options that is on the table" and his "priority is the vote on December 11 - after that we decide what to do."

"The Mirror and other papers are saying there’s serious problems about this deal," Labour's leader told host Phillip Schofield.

Told a No Deal Brexit would be more expensive, he replied: "Well, the alternative isn’t no deal. Nobody’s going to allow no deal. How could we?"

Told he only had until March, the optimistic leader responded: "Well…it’s December this weekend!"

He added: "We have the vote on the 11th, Parliament makes its decision. I suspect it’s going to be no.

"The Prime Minister then has a limited number of days in order to go back to the EU and try to negotiate something else. That comes back to parliament. All options are open then."

He added: "I think the government has conducted these negotiations so badly, starting particularly the atmosphere they started them off, the ludicrous comments made by Boris Johnson and others didn’t help the atmosphere.

"I think we could do a lot better. And also the insults being thrown at European Citizens were disgraceful."



I honestly think he is every bit as bad as May. He doesnt give a fudge what his party wants, he has his own agenda and will simply pay lip service to them to keep his position of power.

The party wants a referendum. And even now he will only ever skirt around it.

Just as, the party wanted to remain, and he flatly refused to comment as he is an ardent leaver.

The guys a clam, IMHO, and I do wonder just how long they will buy the charade.

As to renegotiating? Good luck with that one...

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

Prime Minister Theresa May has accepted the BBC's offer to take part in a debate on Brexit on Sunday 9 December, two days before MPs vote on her deal.

But Labour sources say the party has not yet agreed to take part, with Jeremy Corbyn telling This Morning he preferred ITV's offer.

The BBC said it was "delighted" Mrs May had accepted the offer.

It added it would be discussing debate formats with both parties and would announce further details soon.

Mr Corbyn claimed he preferred ITV's bid out of "respect" for viewers who wanted to watch the I'm A Celebrity... Get Me Out Of Here! final on ITV the same evening - 9 December.

"I want to watch it myself," he said.


Sackable offence, get him out now.

The article is longer if anyone cares: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46386737

 

[ShipOfTheseus]

So it's a double bill with either May and the Doctor, or May with Holly and Dec.

Option one, viewers get to compare two individuals who are female - but not human, appear out of depth by comparison with their predecessor, rely on a technology deus-ex-machina to deal with sticky situations, have eclectic dress sense, and rely on a small team of companions, chosen for loyalty rather than any obvious skills and expertise.That will be rather confusing.

Option two, viewers contrast two smirking couples who are both bent on forcing unpalatable horrors down the gullets of their victims, in the name of giving the public what they want.

I'll stay away from the telly that day.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

I'll stay away from the telly that day.

Lets be honest, wherever it lands up itll be a car crash in slow motion.

May is not built for this kind of thing, not in the slightest, and appearing live and challenged by others will do nothing but set her back.

And the cult of Corbyn will declare it a win regardless, but the meat of his argument will be as weak as it always is. Random tangental barbs designed to sound punchy but actually carry no weight...

Most likely itll end up being a nutter from the Greens or some such to actually make a decent show of it.

 

[r-u-s-x]

@nayimfromthehalfwayline regarding a renegotiation, unlike the Tories Labour want a lot of the same things as the EU, they are at an stop with the Tories as both sides have given up as much as they are willing. If Labour comes to the EU and say we will agree to employment law / environment law / taxes (all things the EU want but have been unable to get) if you give X in return they will negotiate imho.

Regarding supporting another referendum you are right this is party politics, however he wants to be leader of the country so you can argue his position is consistent and fair "the country voted to leave we will leave" rather than just looking at his parties position.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

I see the logic in what you are saying, I just dont agree. Aside from the EU explicitly stating this is the deal and they wont start again, I just dont see why they would. They have us in a severely weakened position, exactly where they wanted us, I dont see why they would commit to another 2 years of negotiation only to end up here again in 2021.

If I thought he was honouring the countries decision, I might respect him for it, but I dont. I think this is personal ambition and he couldnt give two bricks how the vote went.