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Politics, politics, politics

I think a potential new Tory leader is a key factor.

IMO, if someone new comes through, theyll need to appeal to as many as possible, which might mean offering the vote - and the option to revoke.

At least a vote that way would be categoric, if remain was on the ballot and we voted out anyway then there really is no argument is there?
 
New leader = Gove :(
New vote = Yes :)

Can we then close this thread and start a new version in March 2019 p l e a s e!
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
I think a potential new Tory leader is a key factor.

IMO, if someone new comes through, theyll need to appeal to as many as possible, which might mean offering the vote - and the option to revoke.

At least a vote that way would be categoric, if remain was on the ballot and we voted out anyway then there really is no argument is there?
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Assuming that the Tories stay in and they are able to deliver what they offered on the referendum (near enough) then there is no issue - otherwise its just the same isn't it?

I am sure Labour would insist their "deal" be on the ballot and then the circus starts again.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
I think a potential new Tory leader is a key factor.

IMO, if someone new comes through, theyll need to appeal to as many as possible, which might mean offering the vote - and the option to revoke.

At least a vote that way would be categoric, if remain was on the ballot and we voted out anyway then there really is no argument is there?
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Hang about. A new Tory leader doesn't need to appeal to "as many as possible". They need to build a support base of around 100 Tory MPs - effectively, that's enough to come second, because no campaign will be strong enough to support a first and a second cut-out candidate - and then they need to appeal to the tiny, crazed, Brexity, UKIP entryist, coffin-dodging Tory membership.

The system is designed to ensure minority appeal, unless the person coming second drops out.
 
r-u-s-x said:
Assuming that the Tories stay in and they are able to deliver what they offered on the referendum (near enough) then there is no issue - otherwise its just the same isn't it?

I am sure Labour would insist their "deal" be on the ballot and then the circus starts again.
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If the Tories hold power are Labour able to insist upon anything?

ShipOfGoldblum said:
Hang about. A new Tory leader doesn't need to appeal to "as many as possible". They need to build a support base of around 100 Tory MPs - effectively, that's enough to come second, because no campaign will be strong enough to support a first and a second cut-out candidate - and then they need to appeal to the tiny, crazed, Brexity, UKIP entryist, coffin-dodging Tory membership.

The system is designed to ensure minority appeal, unless the person coming second drops out.
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Im getting a little mixed - I was thinking in terms of a general election any new leader would offer whatever gets the most votes. In that situation Im sure a vote would be offered rather than Mays persistent "My deal or else" line.

BUT, in a leadership contest, does a prospective leader not have to think in the same terms? To appeal to leave and remainers alike?
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
Thats the real question.

I think everyone assumes Remain vs Deal vs No Deal - but I wouldnt bet against Deal vs No Deal, Mays a clam like that.
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Having resisted the second referendum option so fiercely on grounds of respecting the original result, I really can't see a 3-way option so blatantly skewed to remain being the outcome. But hey, who knows where this is going...!
 
Parklaner81 said:
Having resisted the second referendum option so fiercely on grounds of respecting the original result, I really can't see a 3-way option so blatantly skewed to remain being the outcome. But hey, who knows where this is going...!
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How is that skewed? You understand how second preference voting works, right?
 
Parklaner81 said:
Having resisted the second referendum option so fiercely on grounds of respecting the original result, I really can't see a 3-way option so blatantly skewed to remain being the outcome. But hey, who knows where this is going...!
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Nobody!

Though I still maintain, the cowards we call politicians do not have the stomach to actually leave. And I think they would much rather it all went away so they can get back to the cushy life of second homes, expenses, and playing PR against the opposition.

Hence, IMO, any excuse to get "lets forget all about it" on a vote will be sought.


ShipOfGoldblum said:
They tried that with May. It didn't work too well. There's no way the grass roots would put up with it another time, not if they get to vote.
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Maybe, in a similar vein to my point to Parklaner, I wonder if self preservation is kicking in for some yet.

A lot will come down to candidates, who looks like they could win the public etc - of which there are no obvious choices IMO.

I think Parklaner is right, at this point who even knows what will happen? Id say there is plenty of room for surprises.
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
How is that skewed? You understand how second preference voting works, right?
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I was assuming 'pick one from three', clearly if that isn't the case it becomes less of an issue though I'm sure that it would still suffer the same accusations of seeking to reverse the leave vote by splitting it.
 
Parklaner81 said:
I was assuming 'pick one from three', clearly if that isn't the case it becomes less of an issue though I'm sure that it would still suffer the same accusations of seeking to reverse the leave vote by splitting it.
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If Im not mistaken, his preference is for people to vote for a 1st and 2nd choice, so whatever comes out of it is conclusive and theres room for a little more grey as opposed to black and white.

ShipOfGoldblum said:
No argument there. It's an insane situation. Neither leader represents their party. Neither party represents its membership. There are no good options, and there's no-one to speak up for any of them anyway.
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Absolutely. How fudged up is that?
 
Parklaner81 said:
I was assuming 'pick one from three', clearly if that isn't the case it becomes less of an issue though I'm sure that it would still suffer the same accusations of seeking to reverse the leave vote by splitting it.
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You order the options by preference and then the lowest-ranked option drops out, with second preference votes redistributed, and a further round if there are more than three choices. As soon as an option has more than 50% of votes, including redistributed ones, it wins.

Works in mayoral elections. Was the alternative to FPTP suggested in the AV referendum a while back. Absolutely eliminates the question of vote-splitting - but can produce paradoxical effects, especially when electorates are polarised, and one of those is that it favours an unloved middle option. Which in this case would be May's deal.
 
Based on May's stance, I absolutely can't see that happening while she has any say in the matter. I think as Nayim suggested, deal vs. no deal would be the only option in any way consistent with her position.

Take her out of the equation and all bets are off of course.
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
You order the options by preference and then the lowest-ranked option drops out, with second preference votes redistributed, and a further round if there are more than three choices. As soon as an option has more than 50% of votes, including redistributed ones, it wins.

Works in mayoral elections. Was the alternative to FPTP suggested in the AV referendum a while back. Absolutely eliminates the question of vote-splitting - but can produce paradoxical effects, especially when electorates are polarised, and one of those is that it favours an unloved middle option. Which in this case would be May's deal.
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Out of interest, how would you see such a process working out in terms of results?
 
As he says - actually tough to call, especially as it leaves it open for the less polarising choice to come through even though its nobodies preference.

Personally, at this point, I think any ballot that includes remain will see a remain vote.

Any optimism of being able to break out and succeed has been quite positively nulled by Mays masterful negotiations.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
As he says - actually tough to call, especially as it leaves it open for the less polarising choice to come through even though its nobodies preference.

Personally, at this point, I think any ballot that includes remain will see a remain vote.

Any optimism of being able to break out and succeed has been quite positively nulled by Mays masterful negotiations.
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Agree with all of this. Just wonder though, would it actually throw up a bit of a 'tactical voting' dilemma for the most committed remainers: 2nd preferencing May's deal would surely be their natural position, but it might also be their fiercest opponent in the final running, making them reluctant to back it? It's not hard to see the potential for perverse outcomes.
 
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