• Dear Guest, Please note that adult content is not permitted on this forum. We have had our Google ads disabled at times due to some posts that were found from some time ago. Please do not post adult content and if you see any already on the forum, please report the post so that we can deal with it. Adult content is allowed in the glory hole - you will have to request permission to access it. Thanks, scara

Coronavirus

DTA said:
When you dont understand the enemy you are dealing with, your short term strategy should always be to minimize losses, until you learn enough to be able to put in place a longer term offensive strategy.
Click to expand...
Not starving the country is a good way of minimising losses.
 
elltrev said:
There are some things they could have tried to do sooner though - self-isolation for all households with symptoms, and certainly everyone who can work from home doing so (especially in London) - that might have have slowed things down to give NHS more time to prepare, without devastating the economy. As it is we are on a worse death trajectory than Italy, whose hospitals were overrun.

I also don’t understand why older and vulnerable people weren’t told to self isolate much sooner, as they’re the ones who really matter AND are less likely to be affecting the economy. (Though by the sound of it many would have ignored advice anyway).
Click to expand...
I believe the advice they were given is that if you make those public announcements too soon, people get fed up and stop isolating at just the wrong time.

If the situation isn't serious enough when they start and if you're on the wrong point of the curve when they stop, then the overload is far worse.
 
scaramanga said:
I believe the advice they were given is that if you make those public announcements too soon, people get fed up and stop isolating at just the wrong time.

If the situation isn't serious enough when they start and if you're on the wrong point of the curve when they stop, then the overload is far worse.
Click to expand...

Hmmm if that’s true it doesn’t really sound like credible advice to me, but maybe I’m overestimating how reasonable the general public would be in their response and behaviour.
 
DTA said:
Dude I'm not saying that British experts are not smart enough or up to the task... not in any way shape or form. I'm saying the experts that Boris is listing to are not up to the task. He should be listening to other British experts. The ones that said to him that herd immunity was a bat brick crazy idea.
Click to expand...
But their not employed by the government
Their independents (like I am, and I’m employed to advise government)
So many policies exist that means the actual civil servant in charge has the final say on what advice government take.... trust me I have those conversations daily
I regularly have to have battles with people getting paid a 1/4 of why I do as their “civil servants” and their the ones that think their accountable (rant over)
I’m not a Boris fan but i believe in a situation of mixed, varied and contradictory advice you have to take the word of those employed by your team to make those calls otherwise you can’t win
 
elltrev said:
Hmmm if that’s true it doesn’t really sound like credible advice to me, but maybe I’m overestimating how reasonable the general public would be in their response and behaviour.
Click to expand...
It sounds very credible to me. Thinking otherwise would be to massively overestimate the intelligence of the public in this country.
 
Parklaner81 said:
That's very much my thinking too - or my hope at least. But I'm still very curious as to how this 2.2 million figure has been arrived at.
Click to expand...
I'm assuming it's worst case scenario, ie the bell curve accelerating to such a level that old people are just dying as the medical facilities to treat them (and save them) are overwhelmed and masses of them get nowhere near any kind of medical help and probably even dying at home.
 
elltrev said:
Hmmm if that’s true it doesn’t really sound like credible advice to me, but maybe I’m overestimating how reasonable the general public would be in their response and behaviour.
Click to expand...
I’d say scara is right
How many times I’ve heard it’s not as bad as the flu..
I’m British and I’m tough
I even had argue with my 70 year old mum last night who is as healthy as she could be ... she looks after the kids one afternoon a week and I’ve told her she can’t do it. She thinks it’s for their sake and can’t get her head around the fact it’s all for her!!!
 
My brother is a teacher in a south London school where many children’s are either in care, have behavioural problems or other vulnerabilities.

I was just speaking to him and he tells me the social services are busy de-registering kids from their oversight.

This means the school itself becomes de facto, the main support for these kids during during the day. And will have to maintain some sort of service service throughout.

Already a large number of his colleagues are self isolating. Two weeks off ahead of Easter with no need to certify sickness.

I’m feeling pretty useless today - moaning about working from home.

I simply cannot imagine what it is like for those on the front line who have responsibilities to others, not just at work but at home too.

It really will take a National effort and it’s people like us who do care who can now stand up and do our bit, whatever that looks like.

It has really hit home today. No more hooning about, this is our war. I’ve got two sets of elderly neighbours and my parents I can and have offered to help. There is feck all point discussing epidemiology and politics - the measure of us will be in our actions so make the right choices and do it soon.

I had plans I was blinkered into following but that’s forfeit for now.
 
Parklaner81 said:
I agree that these were mistakes. Bear in mind though that Trump was still being slated for his travel bans only a matter of days ago.
Click to expand...

Trump is well Trump...but not everything he does is wrong.

Same with Putin, Erdogan and even Farage.
 
scaramanga said:
Not starving the country is a good way of minimising losses.
Click to expand...

Yeah but this is not an either or situation.

This should have been:

A put your troops in a defensive holding pattern, while gathering Intel situation.

Instead we got:

a put down your weapons and let the enemy in, because you ASSUME they will run out of bullets situation.
 
DTA said:
Yeah but this is not an either or situation.

This should have been:

A put your troops in a defensive holding pattern, while gathering Intel situation.

Instead we got:

a put down your weapons and let the enemy in, because you ASSUME they will run out of bullets situation.
Click to expand...
Still you assume that the virus is the only bad thing that can happen. Mitigating this virus will lead to life changing situations and possibly death for large swathes of the country.

Doing nothing to stop the virus is a bad option, killing the entire economy is a worse one.
 
DTA said:
Dude I'm not saying that British experts are not smart enough or up to the task... not in any way shape or form. I'm saying the experts that Boris is listing to are not up to the task. He should be listening to other British experts. The ones that said to him that herd immunity was a bat brick crazy idea.
Click to expand...

That Whitty guy is widely acknowledged as one of the worlds top epidemiologists.

As of yet no one has any other long term alternative to herd immunity (obviously looking to exclude those at risk groups) apart from waiting for a mystery vaccine that won't be here until after next winter. How long realistically can you keep a total lockdown in place for before the public get restless and decide to take their chances?

No one can say what strategy is realistically correct at this point in time, supposedly austerity led to approx 40K deaths per year in the UK for instance. Add into the mix general stress and mental wellbeing adding further work for the NHS and it's a big problem.

I should add I don't have a solution either :)
 
Is there any small chance things will calm down, schools and shops will open and normal service will be resumed anytime soon? Or is it for sure that we are in this for the long haul?
 
dingdongo said:
Is there any small chance things will calm down, schools and shops will open and normal service will be resumed anytime soon? Or is it for sure that we are in this for the long haul?
Click to expand...

Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best.

We have seen peaks and falling caseloads elsewhere of course but we have a fortnight at least of increasing infections and months of deaths as the virus does its worst to those infected.

Then we have second waves and remodelling to influence policy around those wave which are for the birds for the time being.

Although I cannot resist the idea that like original SARS, this could blow itself out or effective therapies and or vaccines are found post haste.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back