Coronavirus

[scaramanga]

Well he was listening to the wrong experts then. The WHO have made it clear what the procedure should be. China, Korea and Singapore have implemented strategies that work at least as a holding pattern until we find out more.

And when I say find out more, I dont mean as in have a viable Vaccine. As I am well aware that the world cant just wait 18 months locked away.

But the testing of available medicines suitability to treat this, is one area where buying time will save lives.

Some of his new mistakes are:
1. Under-reporting the cases in the uk.
2. Not testing those with symptoms unless they are serious enough to be hospitalized.
3. Because of number 2 Not tracking those that have had the virus and recovered, this will have grave implications moving forward.

The WHO don't run economies, they advise on health.

Anyone listening to experts from one field and one field only would be a fool.

 

[P.D.]

Haven't seen this research so forgive me jumping on this, but that implies an overall mortality rate of somewhere in the region of 4.5% going on some quick fag packet calculations.

Point being, I thought most estimates were putting it in the region of 1%?

I thought it was 250K deaths, still a big number but not quite 2.2m.

I am shocked at the amount of ventilators we have, about 7K which is what the state of California alone has and Germany have around 30K.

 

[Baleforce]

I thought it was 250K deaths, still a big number but not quite 2.2m.

I am shocked at the amount of ventilators we have, about 7K which is what the state of California alone has and Germany have around 30K.

It’s kinda relative based on area isn’t it?

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

How long do people think an isolation/lockdown will last? I'm not talking about the government advice here - more how long will the British public realistically put up with it before people just decide fudge it I'll take the risk and deal with it later. There's plenty of dont give a fudge style people in the UK - I'd say anything going on in to June would be stretching it.

Made even worse that there's no exit strategy anywhere in sight, as soon as you lift the restrictions it comes back - we'll probably see this in China soon.

I'll be interested to see what happens with Italy, it will be 2 weeksthis weekend when it should theoretically start going down.

The interesting part today was not only ramping up testing but also the that they are working on an antibodies test (it's close) so they can get a picture of the scale including those with mild symptoms and asymptomatic. This also provides a green light for critical workers to work amongst the community and others who have been thru the virus to return to normal activities.
I suppose with such a contagious virus, that's the only exit strategy of things improving (beyond a vaccine)

All with the caveat that longish term immunity is gained from having it. If not it's literally an impossible task.

 

[Mikey10]

Anyone know if these school closures extend to colleges too?

Universities have de facto shut. They didn’t wait for Boris. My daughter is at Exeter - they’ve been told all teaching will be remote next term and she’s been home for a few days.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

Not Corbyns biggest Fan but what has BoJo done well in any part of this crisis?

Flights from China unchecked at the start of the outbreak.


Last week or so there were flight arriving from italy where the passengers were not checked in any way shape or form.

He was talking about heard Immunity without knowing enough about the virus to know if immunity is possible. Knowing that at least 100s of thousands would die.

I doubt any government leader in the world knew anything about it
A good leaders listens to his experts
A great one does that and takes action
Body’s taking action daily and it’s a landscape that is changing daily TBF
It’s hard trying to learn from our countries and experiences when everyone is fighting the same issues

 

[DTA]

The WHO don't run economies, they advise on health.

Anyone listening to experts from one field and one field only would be a fool.

And? All those other countries have economic advisers as well. Yet we were the only one considering herd immunity... without knowing if it would actually work... regardless of the amount of people that would die because of it... in fact his inaction up to this point (because of the herd immunity plan... or just general incompetence) will cost loads of lives moving forward.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

It’s kinda relative based on area isn’t it?

Yes it is
It’s to do with proximity and spread of people
Not population I believe

 

[Parklaner81]

I thought it was 250K deaths, still a big number but not quite 2.2m.

Yeah I'd seen 250k given previously too. It might have been that that number represented the case of the initially-very limited interventions proposed by government a few days ago - but I'm just guessing here, I could be wrong.

2.2m though is a mind boggling figure, both as it is and as an implied mortality rate - but I'd like some further clarification on that, as it doesn't fit with anything I've heard to this point.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

The interesting part today was not only ramping up testing but also the that they are working on an antibodies test (it's close) so they can get a picture of the scale including those with mild symptoms and asymptomatic. This also provides a green light for critical workers to work amongst the community and others who have been thru the virus to return to normal activities.
I suppose with such a contagious virus, that's the only exit strategy of things improving (beyond a vaccine)

All with the caveat that longish term immunity is gained from having it. If not it's literally an impossible task.

It’s a massive leap forward when they nail it
They can filter and choose which is so vital with things at limitations

 

[DTA]

I doubt any government leader in the world knew anything about it
A good leaders listens to his experts
A great one does that and takes action
Body’s taking action daily and it’s a landscape that is changing daily TBF
It’s hard trying to learn from our countries and experiences when everyone is fighting the same issues

Nah mate I'm not having that.

A great leader or even a good one makes sure he has the right and best possible experts to listen to.

The fact that herd immunity was being considered without knowing if it will work, say a lot.

 

[Mikey10]

Yeah I'd seen 250k given previously too. It might have been that that number represented the case of the initially-very limited interventions proposed by government a few days ago - but I'm just guessing here, I could be wrong.

2.2m though is a mind boggling figure, both as it is and as an implied mortality rate - but I'd like some further clarification on that, as it doesn't fit with anything I've heard to this point.

What will be very interesting to see over the coming weeks is the percentage of people who are asymptomatic, or have symptoms so mild they aren’t really noticeable. I think this figure will be surprisingly high - certainly the data from the cruise ship would suggest this.

The mortality rate suggested by Chris Witty (around 0.6%) may not be far off the mark. In fact, it might be on the high side.

 

[scaramanga]

And? All those other countries have economic advisers as well. Yet we were the only one considering herd immunity... without knowing if it would actually work... regardless of the amount of people that would die because of it... in fact his inaction up to this point (because of the herd immunity plan... or just general incompetence) will cost loads of lives moving forward.

And the actions we've taken will cost lives too. No option on this scale is harmless. Thousands of people will have their lives changed forever by the coming recession, and those are the ones who make it through.

As a point of reference, no government in any of their actions so far know if their attempts will work. The best we know is that over the very short term, the actions we are taking make an improvement - that doesn't make it the right choice, let alone an obvious one.

 

[Bedfordspurs]

Nah mate I'm not having that.

A great leader or even a good one makes sure he has the right and best possible experts to listen to.

The fact that herd immunity was being considered without knowing if it will work, say a lot.

It says a lot who our experts are and how they think I agree
It also shows that’s our approach was deemed suitable for our little island as everything has to be tailored to the environment
A mate said we should do what their doing in Japan (I don’t know what they doing) but I do know it’s densely populated and a small island...
We should do what Italy’s doing. We can’t and as we don’t have the same facilities as them and we have different needs
Everything needs to fit the country that it’s affecting
I’d also add our expert learnt at the unis that a lot of the other global experts did and most are here. We may not be the most productive country in the world but our universities are some of the best at teaching people (I didn’t go to Uni formally by the way)

 

[Parklaner81]

What will be very interesting to see over the coming weeks is the percentage of people who are asymptomatic, or have symptoms so mild they aren’t really noticeable. I think this figure will be surprisingly high - certainly the data from the cruise ship would suggest this.

The mortality rate suggested by Chris Witty (around 0.6%) may not be far off the mark. In fact, it might be on the high side.

That's very much my thinking too - or my hope at least. But I'm still very curious as to how this 2.2 million figure has been arrived at.

 

[DTA]

It says a lot who our experts are and how they think I agree
It also shows that’s our approach was deemed suitable for our little island as everything has to be tailored to the environment
A mate said we should do what their doing in Japan (I don’t know what they doing) but I do know it’s densely populated and a small island...
We should do what Italy’s doing. We can’t and as we don’t have the same facilities as them and we have different needs
Everything needs to fit the country that it’s affecting
I’d also add our expert learnt at the unis that a lot of the other global experts did and most are here. We may not be the most productive country in the world but our universities are some of the best at teaching people (I didn’t go to Uni formally by the way)

Dude I'm not saying that British experts are not smart enough or up to the task... not in any way shape or form. I'm saying the experts that Boris is listing to are not up to the task. He should be listening to other British experts. The ones that said to him that herd immunity was a bat brick crazy idea.

 

[markysimmo]

Schools across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are to close on Friday because of the coronavirus epidemic.

What will the impact be?

How long are schools likely to be closed?
We don't yet know. This will depend to a large extend on how effective measures to reduce the spread of the outbreak are.

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jenny Harries said the move was not prompted because children were at any particular risk, but because it was necessary to reduce social contact throughout society.

England's Education Secretary Gavin Williamson says schools will be closed "until further notice".

Most schools were due to break up for the Easter holidays in two weeks' time.

Schools in England, Wales and Scotland will close on Friday afternoon. Schools in Northern Ireland will close from Monday.

So will every school be completely closed?
No. Some schools will be kept open with a skeleton staff to provide support for the children of key workers, such as NHS staff, police and delivery drivers.

They will also be asked to help those most in need - for example, children who receive free school meals.

Teaching unions are supportive of these measures, but say they want see more details of the plans.

What will happen about exams?
In England, all exams in May and June have been cancelled, including GCSEs, A-levels and primary school national curriculum tests known as Sats.

Mr Williamson told the Commons on Wednesday: "I can confirm we will not go ahead with assessments or exams and that we will not be publishing performance tables for this academic year.

"We will work with the sector and [the exams watchdog] Ofqual to ensure children get the qualifications that they need."

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will make a decision on exams in the days to come.

What does this mean for parents?
For many working parents, the closures will present issues surrounding childcare (this was one of the reasons why the government delayed closures as long as possible).

Some may need to take time off work, raising concerns that some families will struggle financially.

Head teachers have told the BBC that they have been making plans to continue teaching and supporting pupils during the closure, using social media and technologies such as Google Classroom and Maths Watch.

On Tuesday, Chancellor Rishi Sunak said that funding for early years grants would continue to be paid while nurseries or pre-schools are closed and if childminders are unable to work.

 

[DTA]

And the actions we've taken will cost lives too. No option on this scale is harmless. Thousands of people will have their lives changed forever by the coming recession, and those are the ones who make it through.

As a point of reference, no government in any of their actions so far know if their attempts will work. The best we know is that over the very short term, the actions we are taking make an improvement - that doesn't make it the right choice, let alone an obvious one.

When you dont understand the enemy you are dealing with, your short term strategy should always be to minimize losses, until you learn enough to be able to put in place a longer term offensive strategy.

 

[Parklaner81]

Not Corbyns biggest Fan but what has BoJo done well in any part of this crisis?

Flights from China unchecked at the start of the outbreak.


Last week or so there were flight arriving from italy where the passengers were not checked in any way shape or form.

He was talking about heard Immunity without knowing enough about the virus to know if immunity is possible. Knowing that at least 100s of thousands would die.

I agree that these were mistakes. Bear in mind though that Trump was still being slated for his travel bans only a matter of days ago.

 

[elltrev]

And the actions we've taken will cost lives too. No option on this scale is harmless. Thousands of people will have their lives changed forever by the coming recession, and those are the ones who make it through.

As a point of reference, no government in any of their actions so far know if their attempts will work. The best we know is that over the very short term, the actions we are taking make an improvement - that doesn't make it the right choice, let alone an obvious one.

There are some things they could have tried to do sooner though - self-isolation for all households with symptoms, and certainly everyone who can work from home doing so (especially in London) - that might have have slowed things down to give NHS more time to prepare, without devastating the economy. As it is we are on a worse death trajectory than Italy, whose hospitals were overrun.

I also don’t understand why older and vulnerable people weren’t told to self isolate much sooner, as they’re the ones who really matter AND are less likely to be affecting the economy. (Though by the sound of it many would have ignored advice anyway).