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Coronavirus

I have just seen a headline suggesting that Beijing are starting to scale back down because of a second spread, haven’t looked into more detail but never a good sign
 
Experienced modelers drew early on parallels between COVID-19 and the Spanish flu [2] that caused >50 million deaths with mean age at death being 28. We all lament the current loss of life. However, as of June 8, total fatalities are ~410,000 with median age ~80 and typically multiple comorbidities.
 
Legohamster said:
Experienced modelers drew early on parallels between COVID-19 and the Spanish flu [2] that caused >50 million deaths with mean age at death being 28. We all lament the current loss of life. However, as of June 8, total fatalities are ~410,000 with median age ~80 and typically multiple comorbidities.
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You don't think that the death figure is comparitively low compared to the Spanish flu (not that covid is over, this is only the first wave) because of the whole western world (almost) went in to lock down?
 
DTA said:
You don't think that the death figure is comparitively low compared to the Spanish flu (not that covid is over, this is only the first wave) because of the whole western world (almost) went in to lock down?
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This isn’t a flu, so it’s different and acts differently

Do you seriously think there would be 50 million deaths given the key works/shop workers have been working through out and Using the same modelling Sweden should be close to 90k deaths now?

Only the first wave, there may well be a second wave - but why is it a certainty? People need to stop talking like it is.
 
Legohamster said:
This isn’t a flu, so it’s different and acts differently

Do you seriously think there would be 50 million deaths given the key works/shop workers have been working through out and Using the same modelling Sweden should be close to 90k deaths now?

Only the first wave, there may well be a second wave - but why is it a certainty? People need to stop talking like it is.
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No I think its quite obvious that this isn't as deadly as the Spanish flu (thankfully). But probably somewhere between that and the Hong Kong flu of the late 60s and early 70s that killed between 1- and 4 million people (with no lock down).

Unless it burns itself out (not sure how... but would like to learn if you know?) there will be a less deadly second wave. In July ish and a third wave toward autumn/winter which I think will be more deadly... i hope I'm wrong...
 
DTA said:
No I think its quite obvious that this isn't as deadly as the Spanish flu (thankfully). But probably somewhere between that and the Hong Kong flu of the late 60s and early 70s that killed between 1- and 4 million people (with no lock down).

Unless it burns itself out (not sure how... but would like to learn if you know?) there will be a less deadly second wave. In July ish and a third wave toward autumn/winter which I think will be more deadly... i hope I'm wrong...
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We can only go in the countries that have opened up and there has been no sign of a second wave in the countries that opened as few spikes, but nothing major.

Are we are the point where it has targeted the most at risk to it?

The problem is we have now done so much damage 1-4 million people will be affected by the fall out from this in another way and certainly more than the 100k that died in the uk from HKG flu

Interesting the states is the same as Sweden, infections are up but deaths are still coming down.
 
Legohamster said:
We can only go in the countries that have opened up and there has been no sign of a second wave in the countries that opened as few spikes, but nothing major.

Are we are the point where it has targeted the most at risk to it?

The problem is we have now done so much damage 1-4 million people will be affected by the fall out from this in another way and certainly more than the 100k that died in the uk from HKG flu

Interesting the states is the same as Sweden, infections are up but deaths are still coming down.
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I'd imagine they're also getting better at treating it as well.
awesome dawson said:
I wonder if any of those pro Swedish model posters are willing to hold their hand up and acknowledge they were talking sh!t?
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I think the praise for the swedish model is more that they've given the choice to people of what to do and allowed many to lead a mostly normal life, they've admitted they got thing wrongs (care homes especially) but their death rate is going down (albeit slower).

I think we can only really judge the sucess or failure of the policy in time, what is the effect on mental health for instance of being locked down vs having the option to go out. I've been pretty much at home bar the usual walks etc for 13 weeks and it's certainly taking a toll on my health.
 
With Sweden they trusted the public in their choices based on what they knew, I think its a very liberal way of looking at it TBH. We could not have done it based on the last few weeks of proof.

I am still an advocate of Swedens method regardless of stats TBH
 
jts1882 said:
A great contribution to the apples versus orange debate. You can't compare a country with the largest densely populated region in Europe (urban England), with one of the most interconnected cities in the world, and a country that is so isolated it gets left off half of internet maps.
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If you're going to use population density as a statistic on COVID, doesn't it fall over when Taiwan and South Korea have higher density populations than England? In fact England's density only slightly higher than Germany and we have 4x the death rate, so not sure it's a useful statistic to defend UK's atrocious approach on COVID.
 
Diamond Lights said:
If you're going to use population density as a statistic on COVID, doesn't it fall over when Taiwan and South Korea have higher density populations than England? In fact England's density only slightly higher than Germany and we have 4x the death rate, so not sure it's a useful statistic to defend UK's atrocious approach on COVID.
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I think it's more population density plus the level of transitionary population, London is huge in that aspect with people regularly travelling to and from there for business and pleasure. Similar to New York. I think I read that Kensington had the highest no of cases initially because lots of residents had been skiing in Italy and France.
 
jts1882 said:
A great contribution to the apples versus orange debate. You can't compare a country with the largest densely populated region in Europe (urban England), with one of the most interconnected cities in the world, and a country that is so isolated it gets left off half of internet maps.
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But you know there will be some who will try to.
 
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