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Cann we?

I think we need another 20 points (73) to guarantee 4th based on previous season statistics.

11 games to go - that's 6 wins and a couple of draws which allows for some wiggle room. Crucially there aren't any '6-pointers' left.

With home games against Luton, Forest and Burnley and away at Sheffield United that should account for 4 wins. That means 2 wins and 2 draws from the others - Saudi Sportswashing Machine, West Ham, Chelsea and Fulham all away and then we play each of the Top 3.
 
We're 4th in goals scored, goals against, assists, and goal difference. The numbers don't lie. We're finishing 4th, baby!
 
Eeyore Spurs said:
I think we need another 20 points (73) to guarantee 4th based on previous season statistics.

11 games to go - that's 6 wins and a couple of draws which allows for some wiggle room. Crucially there aren't any '6-pointers' left.

With home games against Luton, Forest and Burnley and away at Sheffield United that should account for 4 wins. That means 2 wins and 2 draws from the others - Saudi Sportswashing Machine, West Ham, Chelsea and Fulham all away and then we play each of the Top 3.
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I don't disagree with you, but just to add. Where we actually finish in the table will depend as much on what the teams around us do as what we do (particularly Villa of course).

Getting to the point in the season where a spell of good or bad form (or luck) is a significant portion of the remaining season, at some point it will be essentially the rest of the season. Teams around us are good enough to go on a really strong run, but also inconsistent enough that they can also go on a rather poor run.
 
braineclipse said:
I don't disagree with you, but just to add. Where we actually finish in the table will depend as much on what the teams around us do as what we do (particularly Villa of course).

Getting to the point in the season where a spell of good or bad form (or luck) is a significant portion of the remaining season, at some point it will be essentially the rest of the season. Teams around us are good enough to go on a really strong run, but also inconsistent enough that they can also go on a rather poor run.
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True it could be a high points year (Arsenal missed out in 16/17 with 75 points)- 70 points has been the average needed to finish 4th since 2002 so 73 should give some wiggle room.

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Looking at Villa's games - West Ham a, Wolves h, City a, Brentford h, Arsenal a, Bournemouth h, Chelsea h, Brighton a, Liverpool h, Palace a - I'd be surprised if they got more than 18 especially if they have the Europa Conference distraction.

United nominally have a better run-in but still have Liv and Ars to play and being 6 points back and with a 0 GD they'd have to hit their 90s form and there's no evidence to suggest they can do this.

Unusually for me I'm relatively confident that we got this!
 
Eeyore Spurs said:
True it could be a high points year (Arsenal missed out in 16/17 with 75 points)- 70 points has been the average needed to finish 4th since 2002 so 73 should give some wiggle room.

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Looking at Villa's games - West Ham a, Wolves h, City a, Brentford h, Arsenal a, Bournemouth h, Chelsea h, Brighton a, Liverpool h, Palace a - I'd be surprised if they got more than 18 especially if they have the Europa Conference distraction.

United nominally have a better run-in but still have Liv and Ars to play and being 6 points back and with a 0 GD they'd have to hit their 90s form and there's no evidence to suggest they can do this.

Unusually for me I'm relatively confident that we got this!
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We're spurs. Never be confident. We'll have heart attack moments.

We should be favourites though.

Still got fa cup games to play. We could be 5 points off top by the time everyone comes back from international break.

Think we really need momentum. Get on a winning streak. Before we play the big boys.
 
Lilbaz said:
We're spurs. Never be confident. We'll have heart attack moments.

We should be favourites though.

Still got fa cup games to play. We could be 5 points off top by the time everyone comes back from international break.

Think we really need momentum. Get on a winning streak. Before we play the big boys.
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Momentum is key, problem is all the breaks for internationals and f a cup. It's been a very disjointed season.
 
K.D.D.D.D.Soc said:
Just win the next game and move on, never believed in counting your chickens.
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Don't think anyone is counting chickens. Just saying what we hope. As i said we'll have some fudge ups along the way. We'll also possibly have some great results. It's always a rollercoaster.
 
Assuming the Villa game was the one when everything finally clicked (it actually started with the Palace game), I think we'll get at least 6 points from the Toon/Arse/Pool/City games. And I really do not see us losing in the other 7 games (5W 2D). That's 23 point right there, which would put us comfortably 4th.

And I have a feeling that we will actually do even better. We're just getting into our stride and we are as good as any team in the league as long as we perform at the level we did against Villa.

Too happy clapper?
 
alekaras said:
Assuming the Villa game was the one when everything finally clicked (it actually started with the Palace game), I think we'll get at least 6 points from the Toon/Arse/Pool/City games. And I really do not see us losing in the other 7 games (5W 2D). That's 23 point right there, which would put us comfortably 4th.

And I have a feeling that we will actually do even better. We're just getting into our stride and we are as good as any team in the league as long as we perform at the level we did against Villa.

Too happy clapper?
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alekaras said:
Assuming the Villa game was the one when everything finally clicked (it actually started with the Palace game), I think we'll get at least 6 points from the Toon/Arse/Pool/City games. And I really do not see us losing in the other 7 games (5W 2D). That's 23 point right there, which would put us comfortably 4th.

And I have a feeling that we will actually do even better. We're just getting into our stride and we are as good as any team in the league as long as we perform at the level we did against Villa.

Too happy clapper?
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I don't think the Villa game was the one when everything finally clicked. I think there's definitely potential for more clicks to come as you say too.

Certainly possible for us to lose some of those games that you think we'll win even if we play really well.

Time will tell, what I'm hoping for is more clicks and then things will go the way they go.
 
Although I'm confident we'll get the 20 points I'm sure they'll be a period where we drop points and don't play well - even if its just a couple of games.
11 games is still a long way - teams competing for fourth place are, by definition, not as consistent as the title chasing teams. Important to remember that this is a young team in the infancy of its development so there will be some road bumps - just important we don't lose sight of that.
 
alekaras said:
Assuming the Villa game was the one when everything finally clicked (it actually started with the Palace game), I think we'll get at least 6 points from the Toon/Arse/Pool/City games. And I really do not see us losing in the other 7 games (5W 2D). That's 23 point right there, which would put us comfortably 4th.

And I have a feeling that we will actually do even better. We're just getting into our stride and we are as good as any team in the league as long as we perform at the level we did against Villa.

Too happy clapper?
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You're getting a little too carried away. The low block teams are still going to low block, maybe even more now and those teams are still going to cause us problems with breaking them down. I do think we will get 4th and I'm hoping for a general upswing in performances but that 1 half no form of confirmation that, that is now going to be the case. We need to approach every match individually take each match seriously because it's no forgone conclusion that we will make 4th.
 
Bishop said:
You're getting a little too carried away. The low block teams are still going to low block, maybe even more now and those teams are still going to cause us problems with breaking them down. I do think we will get 4th and I'm hoping for a general upswing in performances but that 1 half no form of confirmation that, that is now going to be the case. We need to approach every match individually take each match seriously because it's no forgone conclusion that we will make 4th.
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100%
Teams will do what Villa and palace did
Maybe the braver ones won’t like Luton
One thing that may have an impact is the amount of teams we play who may still have something to play for
But the low block won’t go away for sure
We have to keep on playing our game which does stretch teams eventually
 
Getting closer. Germany has 3 teams remaining and we have 5. Hoping Bayern draws Dortmund and the English teams avoid each other in the quarters of EL and CL.

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alekaras said:
Getting closer. Germany has 3 teams remaining and we have 5. Hoping Bayern draws Dortmund and the English teams avoid each other in the quarters of EL and CL.

View attachment 16893
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Not sure exactly how the coefficients work. But guessing if you get a 5th team in the cl this season then next season you have a lot better chance of getting a higher coefficient? 5 teams getting points rather than 4 (for cl at least).

Although spain had 5 teams this season but their coefficients are low.
 
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