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18 points to secure CL?

paxtonwolf said:
Hate to throw this one into the mixer,but ultimate 'kick in the teeth' is still hanging around, albeit an unlikely one.

If we do happen to finish 4th, Chelsea could still win the CL. (I did say it was unlikely though)
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If that happens, let the Thames take me...
 
paxtonwolf said:
Hate to throw this one into the mixer,but ultimate 'kick in the teeth' is still hanging around, albeit an unlikely one.

If we do happen to finish 4th, Chelsea could still win the CL. (I did say it was unlikely though)
Click to expand...

I'd say that chances of that happening are 28/1. Apparently.
 
Original prediction:

Arsenal (A): 3
Man Utd (H): 0
Everton (A): 3
Stoke (H): 3
Chelsea (A): 1
Swansea: (H): 1
Sunderland (A): 0
Norwich (H): 3
Bolton (A): 3
QPR (A): 1
Blackburn (H): 3
Aston Villa (A): 3
Fulham (H): 3

How it actually happened:

Arsenal (A): 0
Man Utd (H): 0
Everton (A): 0
Stoke (H): 1
Chelsea (A): 1


Remaining games:

Swansea: (H): 1
Sunderland (A): 0
Norwich (H): 3
Bolton (A): 3
QPR (A): 1
Blackburn (H): 3
Aston Villa (A): 3
Fulham (H): 3

repeating the stats from the original post:

Last 5 season average for 4th spot: 70,8 points.
Average since 95/96: 67,3 points.
Highest ever 4th spot points: 76.

Right now the remaining games in my prediction will have us end at 72 points as opposed to 80 in in the original prediction. We are 8 points behind that prediction, but still there is room to take back 7 of those if we manage to win the remaining eight games, something that is highly unlikely. On a sidenote I will find it highly unprobable that we extend our string of games without a win for another two games, we will win at home to Swansea. But I won't change my original prediction.
 
8 games to play, 24 points to play for.

We will need 20 points to finish 3rd. 6 wins and two draws. We have to win our four homes games, win away Qpr and Bolton. Draw at Sunderland and Villa.
 
Last week:

On a sidenote I will find it highly unprobable that we extend our string of games without a win for another two games, we will win at home to Swansea. But I won't change my original prediction.
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Thank GHod for that.


Original prediction:

Arsenal (A): 3
Man Utd (H): 0
Everton (A): 3
Stoke (H): 3
Chelsea (A): 1
Swansea: (H): 1
Sunderland (A): 0
Norwich (H): 3
Bolton (A): 3
QPR (A): 1
Blackburn (H): 3
Aston Villa (A): 3
Fulham (H): 3

How it actually happened:

Arsenal (A): 0
Man Utd (H): 0
Everton (A): 0
Stoke (H): 1
Chelsea (A): 1
Swansea (H): 3

Remaining games:

Sunderland (A): 0
Norwich (H): 3
Bolton (A): 3
QPR (A): 1
Blackburn (H): 3
Aston Villa (A): 3
Fulham (H): 3

repeating the stats from the original post:

Last 5 season average for 4th spot: 70,8 points.
Average since 95/96: 67,3 points.
Highest ever 4th spot points: 76.

Right now the remaining games in my prediction will have us end at 74 points as opposed to 80 in in the original prediction. We are 6 points behind that prediction, but still there is room to take back 5 of those if we manage to win the remaining seven games.
 
Right now 17pts from the last 7 guarantees CL football no matter what. But, with the fixtures Chelsea and Saudi Sportswashing Machine have left, I have a feeling 14 will do it.
For Chelsea to get 19 from the last 7 with their run in would be a tall order, and with their inferior GD Saudi Sportswashing Machine would have to win all 7.

Still a few more twists and turns. I still think these two Easter fixtures will be pivotal for all involved
 
Pfhah. Piffle. We'll probably get a draw at Sunderland and one away to Bolton, other than that we should (should! Not will, cruel football gods, but should!) win the other five. Gives us 75 points, which is comfortably enough for fourth, and probably good enough for third. What I like, though, is that all the predictons so far have us tagged at finishing with something above 70 points, which is our highest ever PL points total. So it looks like we're on course to overtake that no matter what, which has to be considered some form of progress.

Unless we collapse and lose every single one of our games and finish bottom half. Still possible, what with Spurs being....you know, Spurs.
 
Little Luka said:
Last week:


Thank GHod for that.


Original prediction:

Arsenal (A): 3
Man Utd (H): 0
Everton (A): 3
Stoke (H): 3
Chelsea (A): 1
Swansea: (H): 1
Sunderland (A): 0
Norwich (H): 3
Bolton (A): 3
QPR (A): 1
Blackburn (H): 3
Aston Villa (A): 3
Fulham (H): 3

How it actually happened:

Arsenal (A): 0
Man Utd (H): 0
Everton (A): 0
Stoke (H): 1
Chelsea (A): 1
Swansea (H): 3

Remaining games:

Sunderland (A): 0
Norwich (H): 3
Bolton (A): 3
QPR (A): 1
Blackburn (H): 3
Aston Villa (A): 3
Fulham (H): 3

repeating the stats from the original post:

Last 5 season average for 4th spot: 70,8 points.
Average since 95/96: 67,3 points.
Highest ever 4th spot points: 76.

Right now the remaining games in my prediction will have us end at 74 points as opposed to 80 in in the original prediction. We are 6 points behind that prediction, but still there is room to take back 5 of those if we manage to win the remaining seven games.
Click to expand...

You haven't predicted a single correct result thus far, what makes you think anything will change in the coming seven games.

If we play well and keep injury free we will beat at least five of those teams which will guarantee 3rd, or 4th at worse.
 
TBF, he did get Man Utd (0) and Chelsea (0-0) right. I reckon Sunderland (0) is on the money as well :)
 
awesome dawson said:
You haven't predicted a single correct result thus far, what makes you think anything will change in the coming seven games.

If we play well and keep injury free we will beat at least five of those teams which will guarantee 3rd, or 4th at worse.
Click to expand...



I didn't start this thread for this board to be in awe of my ability to tell the future. It's a thread about what has in the past been the average point gain of the team placed number four in the PL in past seasons. The whole prediction setup I have posted and updated here was something I wrote when we were 12 points ahead of Arsenal and is merely of personal interest. Things change, but I'll stand by it and see how it ends in relation to that orignial prediction. We might not end up too far away after all. And if we end at 79 instead of my predicted 80, would you still say my prediction was a bad one even if the results came in the wrong order? Besides, who would have predicted our bad run when we got it? We were even 2-0 up at Emirates, don't tell me you were able to see the streak we have had recently before the Arsenal game.

The first post questioned wether 18 points more at the time of posting would be enough to get us CL qualification and a secure 4th spot, or in other words, will 71 points still be enough? That's what you should ask yourself, instead of my wild guesses at spesific games.
 
I'm glad Barca got through to the CL-SF rather than AC Milan... at least Cheslea's chances of doing the ultimate 'Kick-in-the-Teeth Double' over us are diminished SLIGHTLY!

I know it sounds simplistic, but 'all' we have to do between now and the end of the season, is match or better ArseAnal's/Chelsea's results... agreed, ArseAnal will probably knock 10 past both Wigan and Wolves, so we just have to make sure WE take advantage of the games they MIGHT drop points... 'cos I really don't see anyone else in the League queuing up to do us a favour... we've gotta look after Number 1 this season!
 
1882 said:
I'm glad Barca got through to the CL-SF rather than AC Milan... at least Cheslea's chances of doing the ultimate 'Kick-in-the-Teeth Double' over us are diminished SLIGHTLY!

I know it sounds simplistic, but 'all' we have to do between now and the end of the season, is match or better ArseAnal's/Chelsea's results... agreed, ArseAnal will probably knock 10 past both Wigan and Wolves, so we just have to make sure WE take advantage of the games they MIGHT drop points... 'cos I really don't see anyone else in the League queuing up to do us a favour... we've gotta look after Number 1 this season!
Click to expand...

I sincerely hope that Emirates Marketing Project will be firing on all cylinders, and also Chelsea will be fighting for their lives against arsenal when they play, all we need to do is keep up our end of the bargain and pick up the points. COYS
 
1882 said:
I'm glad Barca got through to the CL-SF rather than AC Milan... at least Cheslea's chances of doing the ultimate 'Kick-in-the-Teeth Double' over us are diminished SLIGHTLY!

I know it sounds simplistic, but 'all' we have to do between now and the end of the season, is match or better ArseAnal's/Chelsea's results... agreed, ArseAnal will probably knock 10 past both Wigan and Wolves, so we just have to make sure WE take advantage of the games they MIGHT drop points... 'cos I really don't see anyone else in the League queuing up to do us a favour... we've gotta look after Number 1 this season!
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Spot on. Cant see us outscoring Arsenal over the last 7 so really think we need the extra point, which I hope comes from the home games.
I'm hoping we can 3 wins at home and they get no more than 2 wins 2 draws.
Then its all down to Away form and, like you say, matching their total.

Really have a funny feeling though going into the last game it could look like this
Arsenal 70 +29
Spurs 70 +25
Chelsea 67 +25
Basically think we are going to need to get 7pts on our travels rather than the 6 I predict.
Unless we give someone a real thrashing
 
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1882 said:
I'm glad Barca got through to the CL-SF rather than AC Milan... at least Cheslea's chances of doing the ultimate 'Kick-in-the-Teeth Double' over us are diminished SLIGHTLY!

I know it sounds simplistic, but 'all' we have to do between now and the end of the season, is match or better ArseAnal's/Chelsea's results... agreed, ArseAnal will probably knock 10 past both Wigan and Wolves, so we just have to make sure WE take advantage of the games they MIGHT drop points... 'cos I really don't see anyone else in the League queuing up to do us a favour... we've gotta look after Number 1 this season!
Click to expand...

Understatement of the year attempt?

Milan had to hang on by the skin of their teeth against Arsenal after winning 4-0 at home, would be a close match up over two legs between them and Chelsea. Barca on the other hand...
 
Original prediction:

Arsenal (A): 3
Man Utd (H): 0
Everton (A): 3
Stoke (H): 3
Chelsea (A): 1
Swansea: (H): 1
Sunderland (A): 0
Norwich (H): 3
Bolton (A): 3
QPR (A): 1
Blackburn (H): 3
Aston Villa (A): 3
Fulham (H): 3

How it actually happened:

Arsenal (A): 0
Man Utd (H): 0
Everton (A): 0
Stoke (H): 1
Chelsea (A): 1
Swansea: (H): 3
Sunderland (A): 1

Remaining games:

Norwich (H): 3
Bolton (A): 3
QPR (A): 1
Blackburn (H): 3
Aston Villa (A): 3
Fulham (H): 3

repeating the stats from the original post:

Last 5 season average for 4th spot: 70,8 points.
Average since 95/96: 67,3 points.
Highest ever 4th spot points: 76.


My prediction total: 80
How my prediction will end if true from now: 73



Horrible game to watch today, but what I feel will be a crucial point to have taken with us home. Sunderland played to snatch at the end like they did against City at New Year's Day, and we were cautious. The pitch was bad(long grass) and we had Chris 'I allow anything as long as it's Cattermole' Foy. I would have taken a point before the game and I am happy in retrospect that we did. Not too happy with how the game looked, but what the hell.
 
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