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Who or what was the turning point for Leicester City ?

In a complete reverse of this season, the odds I can get on them being relegated are far worse than what I think the actual likelihood is.

25/1 for them to go down on SkyBet and 33/1 for them win the league again.

Half tempted to stick 50 on them going down but I don't like waiting more than a month on bets I place.
 
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So, our mission is now complete ! We single handedly, turned Leicester from being a team in relegation battle into winning the league title within 1 season ! When we played them at home last season, they were winless in 7 matches, having lost 5 of them and deep in relegation zone. If we had beaten them 1-0 or 2-0 in that match, they would have gone on to be relegated. Instead we beat them 4-3 and inspired them so much that they would go on to win the next 7, drawing 1 and and losing just 1, escaping relegation. We still had chances to stop them this season but we inspired them even further, ultimately letting them winning the league title ! History books won't ever forgive us for this sin !

Now, we can move onto our next mission, to help some other teams in trouble ! Best bet will be Saudi Sportswashing Machine to whom we have already donated 3 points at home. I am sure they can't wait to play us in our last match of the season. So, don't be surprised if Saudi Sportswashing Machine avoid being relegated and end up winning the league title next season. After all, it is our speciality in helping teams and players in distress ! That's why everyone love us and call us Tottenham Hotspur Football Charity !:rolleyes:
 
You know, when i think of Ranieri and how he's often been ridiculed by Chelski board members, Mourinho (many times) and many pundits who've pointed to the fact that he's never won a league title (often finishing 2nd), i'm actually happy Leicester won the title.

He seems a nice bloke with minimal clamishness (unlike Jose, LVG etc) and it's nice to see a man who carries himself with as much respect as he does win.
Will be interesting to see if Roman actually turns up next week when those clams have to give Ranieri and his team a guard of honor (i suspect he'll be absent)....

Well done Claudio (even if you broke our hearts along the way)
 
I have no ill feeling towards Leicester, if we weren't closest to them I'd probably be willing them to have won. They have a few rotten players, but Ranieri seems likeable. However, the hyperbole associated with this is grating on me. I've seen it called 'the greatest acheivement in sporting history' which it quite frankly isn't. I'm compiling a list of examples to use when I hear it described as such, which are more fitting for the description.

Vinny Pazienza is currently my go to story.
 
They are now 10 points clear of us, can we stop calling it a fluke or lucky now? They've been top of the league for virtually the entire season.
 
They are now 10 points clear of us, can we stop calling it a fluke or lucky now? They've been top of the league for virtually the entire season.
Does luck only like one or two point margins? Does it get to March and just go "fudge this" and walk away like Arsenal's season?

Not realising how lucky they've been is simply a lack of understanding.

If I had the time/inclination I'd explain it myself but there's plenty of sites that can walk you through TSR, ExpG, etc.
 
I have no ill feeling towards Leicester, if we weren't closest to them I'd probably be willing them to have won. They have a few rotten players, but Ranieri seems likeable. However, the hyperbole associated with this is grating on me. I've seen it called 'the greatest acheivement in sporting history' which it quite frankly isn't. I'm compiling a list of examples to use when I hear it described as such, which are more fitting for the description.

Vinny Pazienza is currently my go to story.
The thing people thoroughly and continually fail to understand with randomness is hat if you repeat something enough, really unlikely things sometimes happen.

There's been a lot of seasons in English football. Certainly enough of them for a brick team to win the league once in a while.
 
Does luck only like one or two point margins? Does it get to March and just go "fudge this" and walk away like Arsenal's season?

Not realising how lucky they've been is simply a lack of understanding.

I have to agree

I will never take anything away from Leicester as its still by any way a magnificent achievement, but in today's football standards to have a season when literally all the top 4 clubs busted at the same time is lucky, lucky in that Leicester didn't batter them into submission with brilliance they just did not show up to the party. Not one of the top clubs (two of which have over a billion £s worth of players on books) did a thing, the two in question even look like they will miss out on CL football.

So in that respect there is a HUGE element of luck involved, but again they deserve respect for capitalizing on it.

I would be EVEN MORE impressed had Emirates Marketing Project, Chelsea and Arsenal been breathing down their necks and they say won a game in April that turned the league in their favour, thats kinda where I am with it.

I am also with Mickey Hazard when he claims the rest of the league psychologically rolled over as managers and players were all publicly backing Leicester for the title which has to be questioned in my mind. Its ok for fans to want it, but players and managers, kinda stinks
 
I have to agree

I will never take anything away from Leicester as its still by any way a magnificent achievement, but in today's football standards to have a season when literally all the top 4 clubs busted at the same time is lucky, lucky in that Leicester didn't batter them into submission with brilliance they just did not show up to the party. Not one of the top clubs (two of which have over a billion £s worth of players on books) did a thing, the two in question even look like they will miss out on CL football.

So in that respect there is a HUGE element of luck involved, but again they deserve respect for capitalizing on it.

I would be EVEN MORE impressed had Emirates Marketing Project, Chelsea and Arsenal been breathing down their necks and they say won a game in April that turned the league in their favour, thats kinda where I am with it.

I am also with Mickey Hazard when he claims the rest of the league psychologically rolled over as managers and players were all publicly backing Leicester for the title which has to be questioned in my mind. Its ok for fans to want it, but players and managers, kinda stinks

This is critical .. Leicester was lucky, injuries/form/suspensions/decisions, people have made charts showing it (if you want the data)

but, the love fest no doubt helped, Swansea is perfect example, rolled over, happily took it up the ass at the moment where it really could have put pressure on Leicester, then put it two great performances right after.

The difference in side in the PL is very small, mental application (conscious or not) makes a difference. Everyone wanted to be the party spoiler for Spurs, no one wanted to be the party spoiler for Leicester .. quite unprofessional actually
 
Exactly and again its no bitterness as I honestly think Leicester have been great. And unlike Chelsea or West Ham towards us I have no bitterness towards them.

An example of where I am coming from is Chelsea coming up, for my money if I was a fan of Chelsea I would want to beat them, I don't buy this whole theory of lets lose and enjoy their day with them, but in some ways its gonna happen and some of their fans want it to and I don't get that. Even if you support a dire team you wanna see them win each game surely?

I mean if we beat Man United all those seasons back, Arsenal won the league, we went one nil up and I was loving it, I wanted us to beat United away regardless of Arsenal.

I have kind of seen the league in a more tinpot light this season, even Lineker is doing my tits in
 
Claiming that this is now clearly not luck without showing any signs of explaining why that is is just as arrogant. At least Scara knows he's being arrogant.

There is no point debating this subject with him though. Plenty of people have tried to give articulate explanations as to why they deserve it, but in his mind, teams that win more possession deserve to win the game, I think it's why he loved AVB as a coach so much. Even if the possession ultimately leads to nothing i.e. 5 shots on goal in 90 mins.

The facts are, they are 10 points clear

They have led in the majority of their games and have rarely fallen behind

They have one of the best defensive records in the league and have scored one goal less than us

They have won at Spurs, Emirates Marketing Project and West Ham, not easy places to win at.

They have also come back from a demoralising last minute defeat at scum to go unbeaten for the rest of the season

Have they had elements of luck? Of course they have, no one is denying they haven't. But Scara have even claimed they should be as low as 7th/8th, which is ridiculous. How have they been worse than United, Arsenal, Emirates Marketing Project, Liverpool etc?

His initial comment got the short shrift it deserved so I don't see why you felt the need to jump to his defense.
 
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There is no point debating this subject with him though. Plenty of people have tried to give articulate explanations as to why they deserve it, but in his mind, teams that win more possession deserve to win the game, I think it's why he loved AVB as a coach so much. Even if the possession ultimately leads to nothing i.e. 5 shots on goal in 90 mins.

The facts are, they are 10 points clear

They have led in the majority of their games and have rarely fallen behind

They have one of the best defensive records in the league and have scored one goal less than us

They have won at Spurs, Emirates Marketing Project and West Ham, not easy places to win at.

They have also come back from a demoralising last minute defeat at scum to go unbeaten for the rest of the season

Have they had elements of luck? Of course they have, no one is denying they haven't. But Scara have even claimed they should be as low as 7th/8th, which is ridiculous. How have they been worse than United, Arsenal, Emirates Marketing Project, Liverpool etc?

His initial comment got the short shrift it deserved so I don't see why you felt the need to jump to his defense.

You forgot "I've selected to present" between "The facts" and "are".

Positives like this can obviously be pointed to for any champion of a big league. You're essentially arguing that if someone wins the league it's not luck.
 
There is no point debating this subject with him though.
Not if you can't/won't debate it.

Plenty of people have tried to give articulate explanations as to why they deserve it,
Not yet they haven't. In fact, the best I've heard is some kind of variation on "more points = better" which anyone but a halfwit can see is clearly not always true.

but in his mind, teams that win more possession deserve to win the game,
Not only have I never said that but I don't think it either. It just shows that chasm of comprehension I'm trying to deal with here.

I think it's why he loved AVB as a coach so much. Even if the possession ultimately leads to nothing i.e. 5 shots on goal in 90 mins.
I like AVB because he "gets" football at a higher level than most. His ability to translate complex ideas to a low IQ group of footballers was not good enough, but something I have plenty of sympathy with.

The facts are, they are 10 points clear
Ever seen a match where the worse team won? I know you have, you're a Spurs fan. Now extrapolate that across a season and what do you get?

They have led in the majority of their games and have rarely fallen behind
I believe we've won more points from a losing position than anyone else - by your logic are we now a bad team?

They have one of the best defensive records in the league and have scored one goal less than us
See my previous posts on ExpG and goalkeeper save rates.

They have won at Spurs, Emirates Marketing Project and West Ham, not easy places to win at.
Winning at those places is made much easier if you don't need to be the better team to win.

They have also come back from a demoralising last minute defeat at scum to go unbeaten for the rest of the season
Confidence is (IMO) a massively overrated influence on a match. There's been some good preliminary work on it with strikers that shows previous success has no bearing on future success (when adjusted for ability).

As for unbeaten, again, see ExpG and save rates.

Have they had elements of luck? Of course they have, no one is denying they haven't. But Scara have even claimed they should be as low as 7th/8th, which is ridiculous. How have they been worse than United, Arsenal, Emirates Marketing Project, Liverpool etc?
That's precisely where they should be.

Again, Exp.....blah blah blah

His initial comment got the short shrift it deserved so I don't see why you felt the need to jump to his defense.
Because he's my hero and my insides do butterflies every time he posts.
 
Leicester and their luck: can anyone show me with stats whether they are more lucky than Manure's brick side that wn the PL in 2011, or even the Cantona 1-0 inspired side of 1995/96.
In my midn i don't think Leicester have been luckier than those two sides at least: both Schmeichaels were similarly busy...
 
Leicester and their luck: can anyone show me with stats whether they are more lucky than Manure's brick side that wn the PL in 2011, or even the Cantona 1-0 inspired side of 1995/96.
In my midn i don't think Leicester have been luckier than those two sides at least: both Schmeichaels were similarly busy...
Don't know what the stats were for Utd, but here's some detail on Leicester:

http://statsbomb.com/2016/02/leicester-and-liverpool-when-it-goes-your-way-and-when-it-doesnt/
http://www.michaelbertin.com/its-be...ood-but-its-even-better-to-be-lucky-and-good/

I don't think anyone had run the numbers on United, but when it comes to goalkeeping there's a massive difference. If both were saving at the same rate (and I'm fairly sure even Schmeichael snr didn't save at the Leicester rate) there's an anomaly. One is one of the greatest goalkeepers ever to have played in this country and regularly posted save ratios that anyone could be proud of. The other pulled it out of his arse and happened to do it just as his team hit a tough patch of fixtures.

The easiest heuristic for a "luck" check is to ask yourself "Is what happened repeatable?" Almost nothing Leicester have done this season that would put them above 8th in the league (other than being thoroughly boring and incredibly brutish) is repeatable for them. Either that, Vardy/Schmeichael are two of the best in the world in their positions or Ranieri has solved football. Leicester winning by luck is clearly the most likely of the options.
 
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