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The Official 2022/23 Premier League Thread

Kandi1977 said:
Don't think that will help them. Think all 3 of Everton, Leicester and Leeds will win their last game.
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I agree the win would have put it totally in their hands, that why it almost worked bar that save, but because of their better GD it does mean a draw would be no good to Everton if Leicester win.
If wont matter if Leeds win, if Leceister win, unless they stick 9 or 10 past us
 
On the final day Sky should show all 3 relegation-related games live, and as the Euro Conference and Europa league are shown on BT Sport, let them show the Villa v Brighton game
 
Robspur12 said:
Hang on a minute. Again context is brushed aside here.

Brighton don't have anything like our fanbase, revenue or pedigree in terms of players they could attract. They have never achieved this number of points in the top division. If you look at the Premier League table, you can almost imagine that it consists of at least 3 sub leagues, top 6, mid table and relegation battlers. They have jumped out of one sub league and are almost competing 2 leagues above where they usually competing in, belying their wage bill. That's seriously impressive given they have also lost Bissouma, Trossard, Cucarella and Potter.

If they have a season like the one we have just experienced, given their relative position in the league that will probably mean relegation for them. It is likely they will go down eventually because when they do well, unfortunately they don't have the financial might to prevent their best players getting picked off. But, effective recruitment and backing their manager can off set these losses for a while. I mean seriously if we lost 3 of our best players do you think we will recruit as effectively as they have let alone improve our competitive ness in the PL?

De Zerbi has done a great job what ever happens next season. He's pushed his team up 2 subleagues and gone shoulder to shoulder against teams they have no right to compete with. Their performances against Arsenal for example, put our far more expensively assembled team to shame. For me that is a better reference point than Arne Slot winning the Dutch League. It's not dissimilar to what Poch achieved at Southampton.

He probably won't do as well next season because not only us he likely to lose players like Caicedo, he also has to expose his relatively small squad to European football.
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This inevitable scavenging, means that it doesn't matter how good their scouting and player recruitment is they will eventually lose out. For the sake of argument, let's say clubs typically have a 50-50 success rates when signing players. Let's also say Brighton are better with a 70% success rate. When a successful player is sold, they only have that 70% chance of successfully replacing him. They need a perfect recruitment to sustain what their good choices gained. Southampton.

Remember the players in Leicester's title winning side who got bought. Kante, Mahrez, Chilwell, Drinkwater. The latter failed at Chelsea but was an important player for them.
 
jts1882 said:
This inevitable scavenging, means that it doesn't matter how good their scouting and player recruitment is they will eventually lose out. For the sake of argument, let's say clubs typically have a 50-50 success rates when signing players. Let's also say Brighton are better with a 70% success rate. When a successful player is sold, they only have that 70% chance of successfully replacing him. They need a perfect recruitment to sustain what their good choices gained. Southampton.

Remember the players in Leicester's title winning side who got bought. Kante, Mahrez, Chilwell, Drinkwater. The latter failed at Chelsea but was an important player for them.
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Equally, when they sell a brick player, they have a 70% chance of replacing them with a good one.

Although I agree with your general gist - I'd want to see that this isn't just Brighton "doing a Leicester" for a season or two before claiming it to be a work of genius.
 
Not really. When you sell a brick player you get less money. You have a 70% chance of getting an equally brick player or one a bit better. There is a small chance of buying a top player for the market price of a brick player.

On a related note, Brighton and Brentford both have owners with a background in betting and supposedly use data models to improve their recruiting (Moneeyball II). Levy wants in.

Tottenham hold talks with betting experts in bid to overhaul transfer policy

Daniel Levy has held discussions with betting experts over developing a data model for Tottenham Hotspur that the club hope could revolutionise their recruitment.

Tottenham have declined to comment on the talks, with the details and identities of those involved understood to be a closely guarded secret as Spurs attempt to come up with their own version of the models that have been so successful at Brighton and Brentford.

The owners of Brighton and Brentford, Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham, both have a history of successfully using data in the betting sector and it is understood that under-fire Spurs chairman Levy has held discussions with individuals with a similar background who have also applied their analysis in other fields.

It is understood that Levy recently missed Tottenham’s defeat by Aston Villa to make a trip to the United States, but it is unclear whether that was related to his data discussions with some sources claiming it was related to trying to secure extra investment.

Tottenham have wasted millions in the transfer market over recent years, with Levy admitting that recruitment needs to improve and hiring Scott Munn as chief football officer to help with a planned overhaul of a number of departments.

One of the departments that is likely to undergo significant change and investment is data and analytics, which is an area in which Levy has previously been reluctant to invest having questioned its value.

But Levy’s opinion appears to have been changed by the success of clubs such as Brighton and Brentford, and Tottenham’s discussions with betting experts are thought to have centred around using a model to analyse and assess overperforming players in smaller leagues.

With Tottenham failing to qualify for the Champions League and in danger of missing out on Europe altogether, while also having to try to compete with the greater wealth of Emirates Marketing Project, Chelsea, Saudi Sportswashing Machine and Manchester United, the club must look at ways of trying to extract maximum value from the transfer market.

Part of Levy’s brief for the sporting director he is looking to recruit will be to work with data and potentially use the model he has been discussing with experts to advise and make decisions on players, both in terms of incomings and outgoings.
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paxtonwolf said:
My favourite (Followed by Spa). Raced them so many times on F1 and I could almost race with my eyes closed. Sounds like a good days viewing
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Spa is great!! Went on a roadtrip last summer and drove past Spa - super lucky, it's was a free, open test day for a Posche series I think it was.
 
scaramanga said:
Equally, when they sell a brick player, they have a 70% chance of replacing them with a good one.

Although I agree with your general gist - I'd want to see that this isn't just Brighton "doing a Leicester" for a season or two before claiming it to be a work of genius.
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I think the system gives them a better chance, that said next season will be a huge test as they have pretty much confirmed in the last 48 hours that there will be sales based on managers comments. Its ok replacing 1,2 players and it working, if its 3/4 then the integration might play its part.

Where their system will fail them if anywhere is that we are dealing with humans and not robots, if they lose 4 on the spin at the start of the season and see themselves in a relegation fight from the start stats and systems don't account for how players will react or their emotional response. It also does not account for their mental side in general, all you need is a drink drive case or someone to have a bad personal life situation or kick someone in the head on the training pitch for things to fall apart.
 
Robspur12 said:
Hang on a minute. Again context is brushed aside here.

Brighton don't have anything like our fanbase, revenue or pedigree in terms of players they could attract. They have never achieved this number of points in the top division. If you look at the Premier League table, you can almost imagine that it consists of at least 3 sub leagues, top 6, mid table and relegation battlers. They have jumped out of one sub league and are almost competing 2 leagues above where they usually competing in, belying their wage bill. That's seriously impressive given they have also lost Bissouma, Trossard, Cucarella and Potter.

If they have a season like the one we have just experienced, given their relative position in the league that will probably mean relegation for them. It is likely they will go down eventually because when they do well, unfortunately they don't have the financial might to prevent their best players getting picked off. But, effective recruitment and backing their manager can off set these losses for a while. I mean seriously if we lost 3 of our best players do you think we will recruit as effectively as they have let alone improve our competitive ness in the PL?

De Zerbi has done a great job what ever happens next season. He's pushed his team up 2 subleagues and gone shoulder to shoulder against teams they have no right to compete with. Their performances against Arsenal for example, put our far more expensively assembled team to shame. For me that is a better reference point than Arne Slot winning the Dutch League. It's not dissimilar to what Poch achieved at Southampton.

He probably won't do as well next season because not only us he likely to lose players like Caicedo, he also has to expose his relatively small squad to European football.
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All that is fair. The point, for me, is that some people are talking like Brighton have unlocked the key to football success and all we have to do is copy them.

Firstly, they haven't. What they are doing is impressive but let's see how long it lasts. Secondly, what they've done is not simple to replicate. If it was, everyone would do it. Thirdly, and most importantly, what gets you from bottom half of the table to 6th/7th is not what will get you from 7th to 4th or higher. In the recent history of the Premier League, only one club has consistently punched above their weight into the top 4. That was us under Poch. So either the fella running our club who is being portrayed as utterly clueless/a man only interested in money masterminded a strategy that no-one else has managed for (relative) on-field success or the stars aligned and we got a bit lucky - a bit like Brighton right now.
 
DeanoAustin said:
All that is fair. The point, for me, is that some people are talking like Brighton have unlocked the key to football success and all we have to do is copy them.

Firstly, they haven't. What they are doing is impressive but let's see how long it lasts. Secondly, what they've done is not simple to replicate. If it was, everyone would do it. Thirdly, and most importantly, what gets you from bottom half of the table to 6th/7th is not what will get you from 7th to 4th or higher. In the recent history of the Premier League, only one club has consistently punched above their weight into the top 4. That was us under Poch. So either the fella running our club who is being portrayed as utterly clueless/a man only interested in money masterminded a strategy that no-one else has managed for (relative) on-field success or the stars aligned and we got a bit lucky - a bit like Brighton right now.
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Spot on, its amazing how much of our previous way of working was classed as luck twinned with lack of ambition to push on yet we always seem to look over the fence and proclaim others to have reinvented the game. Undoubtedly Brighton are well run so I won't do them a disservice, but this is also their first season of sustained push on and as I said on here a while back the test will be time and if their system works beyond scratching about in midtable. Also, as I said, this summer will be interesting to see and gauge their actual ambition because they have a chance to use their model and add to it and push on, if the system was to breed success and twinned with ambition surely that should be the plan for any club?
 
Grays_1890 said:
Spot on, its amazing how much of our previous way of working was classed as luck twinned with lack of ambition to push on yet we always seem to look over the fence and proclaim others to have reinvented the game. Undoubtedly Brighton are well run so I won't do them a disservice, but this is also their first season of sustained push on and as I said on here a while back the test will be time and if their system works beyond scratching about in midtable. Also, as I said, this summer will be interesting to see and gauge their actual ambition because they have a chance to use their model and add to it and push on, if the system was to breed success and twinned with ambition surely that should be the plan for any club?
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Yeah I agree with that. They sustain this level over a period of 2-3 years then I think there has to be something in there for clubs to learn (ditto Brentford to be fair). They push on even further and it becomes a very serious model/methodology for people to look at. I am doubtful that they will do either though. I think they're just having a "lightning in the bottle" moment like we had with Poch.

Hope I'm wrong, I love watching them and love seeing good clubs like Brighton and Brentford have this sort of organic success (compared to City or Chelsea).
 
DeanoAustin said:
Yeah I agree with that. They sustain this level over a period of 2-3 years then I think there has to be something in there for clubs to learn (ditto Brentford to be fair). They push on even further and it becomes a very serious model/methodology for people to look at. I am doubtful that they will do either though. I think they're just having a "lightning in the bottle" moment like we had with Poch.

Hope I'm wrong, I love watching them and love seeing good clubs like Brighton and Brentford have this sort of organic success (compared to City or Chelsea).
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Yeh, much more their system than the others laundering their money through clubs under the guise of "success"

I think there are too many human variables for it to work as a sole system, has to work with other elements for success in the long term IMO
 
DeanoAustin said:
All that is fair. The point, for me, is that some people are talking like Brighton have unlocked the key to football success and all we have to do is copy them.

Firstly, they haven't. What they are doing is impressive but let's see how long it lasts. Secondly, what they've done is not simple to replicate. If it was, everyone would do it. Thirdly, and most importantly, what gets you from bottom half of the table to 6th/7th is not what will get you from 7th to 4th or higher. In the recent history of the Premier League, only one club has consistently punched above their weight into the top 4. That was us under Poch. So either the fella running our club who is being portrayed as utterly clueless/a man only interested in money masterminded a strategy that no-one else has managed for (relative) on-field success or the stars aligned and we got a bit lucky - a bit like Brighton right now.
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Tbf we did it under Redknapp and Conte as well, not just Poch “over achieving”. Even under AVB we finished with the highest points total not to make top 4. That’s a lot of occasions to get lucky…
 
Gazza Dazzla said:
Tbf we did it under Redknapp and Conte as well, not just Poch “over achieving”. Even under AVB we finished with the highest points total not to make top 4. That’s a lot of occasions to get lucky…
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I'm more talking a sustained period of relative success rather than one off seasons. You could perhaps make a case for Harry as he finished 4th, 5th and 4th.

However, Poch went 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th. A longer period of finishes well above par.
 
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