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Serious relegation fears

To far out to dream just yet, get wins at Everton and Palace and maybe just maybe. April is the month that worries me the most. Really tough at the wrong time of the season,.
Liverpool,Stoke and Chelsea all away with United at home thrown in too.
To have a shot at anything we need to be well entrenched in the Top 4 come 31st March, preferably 6 or 7 pts clear of 5th at that point
 
Bedfordspurs said:
Don't forget though that Liverpool have been poor at home so the away results have been their better ones
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True. But they've got a new manager and it's far from impossible that they will improve as Klopp is given more time with the squad and a transfer window to work with.

5 points behind us if they win today as SUIYHA pointed out. It really is very little at this stage of the season. And they're well capable of going on a run. fudge me, if Leicester of this time last season is capable of going on a run most teams are...

El Guepardo said:
Seriously...why are people still building up Man United. Their squad isn't better than our's & yet the way people discuss Man United, it's as if they have a given right to be Champions elect...just like Liverpool had in the past before their wheels came off. Wake up & smell the fudgeing coffee. Man United can't defend, have little by way of attacking creativity, struggle for a game plan and goals and really, it would not surprise me if they finished nearer to 6th than 3rd, in fact, I expect this.
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Again, only 5 points behind us. They've looked poor, but have picked up results. They have a lot of potential in that squad. Mata, Depay, Martial, Rooney, Herrera, Scweinsteiger, Carrick, Schneiderlin... A bit too heavy on either potential or past their best, but they still have a lot of quality.

Looking increasingly likely that LvG just isn't going to get the best out of their squad. But they might get a top class manager in any time and they have more than enough quality to go on a run that secures at least a top 4 finish.
 
Liverpool will not spend big in January and from what I've seen will need to a sell to buy. They follow similar principles to us

United have some very good player but seem to lack any squad cohesion and have a lot of similar players which is why their struggling IMO

The fact they can't score with all the players they have I find bizarre
 
Bedfordspurs said:
Liverpool will not spend big in January and from what I've seen will need to a sell to buy. They follow similar principles to us

United have some very good player but seem to lack any squad cohesion and have a lot of similar players which is why their struggling IMO

The fact they can't score with all the players they have I find bizarre
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Klopp did great things at Dortmund with a limited budget. Different transfer committee, different club, different league. But the potential for them to come out of January stronger is definitely there. And their owners have invested in the past iirc, wouldn't put it past them to start "project Klopp" with a half way solid net spend.

I agree on squad cohesion at United. My point is that it might change if they against all odds snap into change under LvG or a new manager gets more out of their squad.

For both clubs 5 points is a small enough gap that they're very much in the fight.
 
braineclipse said:
Klopp did great things at Dortmund with a limited budget. Different transfer committee, different club, different league. But the potential for them to come out of January stronger is definitely there. And their owners have invested in the past iirc, wouldn't put it past them to start "project Klopp" with a half way solid net spend.

I agree on squad cohesion at United. My point is that it might change if they against all odds snap into change under LvG or a new manager gets more out of their squad.

For both clubs 5 points is a small enough gap that they're very much in the fight.
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5 points is nothing but we seemed To struggle to reign that in for most of this season until recently
 
Bedfordspurs said:
Liverpool will not spend big in January and from what I've seen will need to a sell to buy. They follow similar principles to us

United have some very good player but seem to lack any squad cohesion and have a lot of similar players which is why their struggling IMO

The fact they can't score with all the players they have I find bizarre
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Liverpool net spend last 5 years 162m, spurs - 36m
 
braineclipse said:
Klopp did great things at Dortmund with a limited budget. Different transfer committee, different club, different league. But the potential for them to come out of January stronger is definitely there. And their owners have invested in the past iirc, wouldn't put it past them to start "project Klopp" with a half way solid net spend.

I agree on squad cohesion at United. My point is that it might change if they against all odds snap into change under LvG or a new manager gets more out of their squad.

For both clubs 5 points is a small enough gap that they're very much in the fight.
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After the usual manager bounce they've lost to Saudi Sportswashing Machine ans Watford and drawn at WBA in their last 4 games.

I'm not discounting them but I really think people are overplaying Klopp's ability as a manager.
 
camspur said:
After the usual manager bounce they've lost to Saudi Sportswashing Machine ans Watford and drawn at WBA in their last 4 games.

I'm not discounting them but I really think people are overplaying Klopp's ability as a manager.
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Klopp is a great coach but I don't think he is a miracle worker

They have had top drawer players dragging them up under brenton but they don't have any now
 
Bedfordspurs said:
Klopp is a great coach but I don't think he is a miracle worker

They have had top drawer players dragging them up under brenton but they don't have any now
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If they win today they're 5 points behind us. I don't think a miracle worker is required to make up that kind of difference.
 
braineclipse said:
If they win today they're 5 points behind us. I don't think a miracle worker is required to make up that kind of difference.
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"IF", I do so like that word, I heard that before they played Saudi Sportswashing Machine, "IF they win they'll only be x points behind" and before the watford game.

You know what IF we win all our remaining games and the 3 teams above us lose 2 games each we'll be champions and it'll be irrelevant what Liverpool do.
 
Stats can be used to prove anything, here are some stats that prove nothing at all.

The first row is the season (i.e. 15 is the 14/15 football season), the second row is the number of points the champions attained, the next row is the number of points the 4th position team attained and the number in brackets is the difference in points. If there is a star that means we would have finished 4th or better with our record points total (72)

15 - 87, 70 (17) *
14 - 86, 79 (7)
13 - 89, 73 (16)
12 - 89, 69 (20) *
11 - 80, 68 (12) *
10 - 86, 70 (16) *
09 - 90, 72 (18) *
08 - 87, 76 (11)
07 - 89, 68 (21) *
06 - 91, 67 (24) *
05 - 95, 61 (34) *
04 - 90, 60 (30) *
03 - 83, 67 (16) *
02 - 87, 71 (16) *
01 - 80, 68 (12) *

Considering that this season everybody's been a bit brick, I would expect the champions' total points to be relatively low. The lowest points we've ever seen was in 10/11 and 00/01 with 80 points for the champions. Arsenal are currently league leaders with 39 points at the halfway stage, keep up the same form and they would end on 78 points. 78 points would be the lowest total for a champion in the last 15 years.

78 points is 6 points more than our record points total, from the 12/13 season, where other than Bale's performances we were turgid. I am hopeful we can beat our records point total this season.

If we take our halfway points total so far this season and double it, we'd end on 70 points.
If we take our second half of the season points from the 12/13 season (39) and add it to our current points total we'd have 74.

I feel really positive that we can finish top 4, finishing on between 70 and and 74 points seems an attainable goal. Can we win the league? I feel we have an outside chance, it depends a lot on what City and Arsenal do, but if 80 points is enough to win the league season, could we attain 80 points or more?

Anyhow, enough rambling from me. I hope this post is interesting. Sorry for not making pretty graphs.
 
I'd like to look at us from another angle. I have chosen to compare us to the 1994/5 Champions Blackburn and the 2013/14 runners up Liverpool.

Blackburn finished the 94/95 season on 89 points after 42 games. If we adjust that total for a 38 game season they would have finished on 80.5 points.
I want to compare that to us because Alan Shearer started all 42 games, scoring 34 goals in the process.

Liverpool could, probably should, have won the league in 2014, They finished the season on 84 points. Suarez was banned for the first 5 games of the season but after that he was ever present, making 33 appearances.

I guess I'm just reiterating what everyone else here knows, keeping Kane fit is incredibly important for our chances of finishing higher than 4th and/or challenging for the title.

Appearances this season;
Kane 18/19
Giroud 17/19
Aguero 9/19
 
paxtonwolf said:
To far out to dream just yet, get wins at Everton and Palace and maybe just maybe. April is the month that worries me the most. Really tough at the wrong time of the season,.
Liverpool,Stoke and Chelsea all away with United at home thrown in too.
To have a shot at anything we need to be well entrenched in the Top 4 come 31st March, preferably 6 or 7 pts clear of 5th at that point
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There's a reasonable chance that Stoke and Chelea might not have anything to play for by the time we meet them and, without wanting to stereotype, all the foreigners in both teams are more likely to have their minds on the beach that a team of Brits. Plus the Chelsea players will want to be avoiding injury ahead of the Euros and they might still be in the CL. Stoke also isn't as intimidating a place to go to as it used to be.
 
Points_Distribution_Table.png
 
braineclipse said:
True. But they've got a new manager and it's far from impossible that they will improve as Klopp is given more time with the squad and a transfer window to work with.

5 points behind us if they win today as SUIYHA pointed out. It really is very little at this stage of the season. And they're well capable of going on a run. fudge me, if Leicester of this time last season is capable of going on a run most teams are...



Again, only 5 points behind us. They've looked poor, but have picked up results. They have a lot of potential in that squad. Mata, Depay, Martial, Rooney, Herrera, Scweinsteiger, Carrick, Schneiderlin... A bit too heavy on either potential or past their best, but they still have a lot of quality.

Looking increasingly likely that LvG just isn't going to get the best out of their squad. But they might get a top class manager in any time and they have more than enough quality to go on a run that secures at least a top 4 finish.
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They have some quality players on paper but on the pitch they look awful. They don't seem to have any plan, tactics or understanding of what they're doing and it doesn't seem to be getting any better.

More importantly, there's nothing logical to explain why Utd will suddenly do a U-turn after 19 games to change from the abject shower of sh1te which they have been into a more co-ordinated team for the second half of the season.

I don't want to be complacent but I cant believe most impartial observers (which atmiddetly I am not) would say that they'd finish above us
 
We're only half way, absolutely anything could happen. That's the excitement. Maybe the top 7 will all get exactly the same points and we'll have to play Knockout Wem or 3-and-in or Keepy Uppies to see who wins it.
 
K.D.D.D.D.Soc said:
My son just told me the team with the best GD at Christmas has won the league for the last 5 years!
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Someone on the Internet said that whoever had the best goal difference half way though the season, ended up winners nine out of the ten last seasons. Bodes well.
 
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