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Tim Sherwood…gone \o/

Do you want Tim Sherwood to stay as manager?

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    125
  • Poll closed .
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Never heard of PDO before Scara posted about it in this thread, cheers for the article link. I'll have to think about it some more, but at least a noteworthy addition to a discussion it seems.

Trotter said:
It works in NHL, where rosters are much more similar strength, and the goals scored as a percentage of shots taken is minimal.

In football the better teams pay for better players, and arguably therefore should be creating better chances, and therefore scoring more goals as a % of shots taken and therefore increasing their PDO. That is what we are seeing with us, we are creating much better chances and is the main reason our PDO has increased significantly. To suggest the reason we have scored only 15 goals in 16 matches under AVB,and 14 in 6, and also conceding fewer under Sherwood is down to pure luck, is just ridiculous. The chances we are creating now are mainly from within the 18 yard box, rather than just pee-rollers from 30 yards, you will always score more as a percentage from there. I repeat to suggest it is just luck that our PDO has increased is ridiculous.
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You think our PDO will remain significantly above 100 under Sherwood (using calculations as in that statsbomb article)? If you think so would you mind including how good your knowledge of statistics is?

Rossi22 said:
It really is. A dozen or so games into the season and they'd determined that we're the best team in the league because we have the most attempts at goal and allow the fewest. Is that supposed to tell the whole story? Why don't they add average distance of shot taken into their silly little formula? Any team can keep the ball, go nowhere and have a pop at goal from 30 yards. Is our conversion rate under Sherwood unsustainable? Probably, but what isn't unsustainable is that we'll average better than 15 goals in 16 games as we're actually getting the ball into higher % areas(i.e. the opponent's box), I'd thought it had become an unwritten rule under AVB that we weren't allowed to enter their area.
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I struggle to see how what you say here relates to PDO.

I don't think anyone is trying to claim that one statistic metric is supposed to tell the whole story, I don't think not telling the whole story invalidates something. It's a very frequently used straw man it seems and it's getting a bit old.

Back to AVB I see... What do you think about how those PDO numbers were significantly below 100 for Villas Boas says? Do you think there might be a relation to what you're saying and those numbers that leans more towards validating PDO?
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Kingdawson said:
and if he does well in those games it will be the next 5 fixtures after that which will really be the test.
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I said nothing of the sort, just that these are all tough fixtures and since he's now had a chance to really work with the squad in training it will give us a better idea of what he's trying to do.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Rossi22 said:
It really is. A dozen or so games into the season and they'd determined that we're the best team in the league because we have the most attempts at goal and allow the fewest. Is that supposed to tell the whole story? Why don't they add average distance of shot taken into their silly little formula? Any team can keep the ball, go nowhere and have a pop at goal from 30 yards. Is our conversion rate under Sherwood unsustainable? Probably, but what isn't unsustainable is that we'll average better than 15 goals in 16 games as we're actually getting the ball into higher % areas(i.e. the opponent's box), I'd thought it had become an unwritten rule under AVB that we weren't allowed to enter their area.
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As braineclipse has said above, you haven't really made any points related to PDO.

I'll ask one question regarding your doubts to its validity:

If all teams' PDOs regress to mean (and they have been shown to in every case so far) what makes you think that AVB's PDO of 85 wouldn't have regressed and why Timmeh's ridiculous PDO of around 130 won't regress?
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

scaramanga said:
As braineclipse has said above, you haven't really made any points related to PDO.

I'll ask one question regarding your doubts to its validity:

If all teams' PDOs regress to mean (and they have been shown to in every case so far) what makes you think that AVB's PDO of 85 wouldn't have regressed and why Timmeh's ridiculous PDO of around 130 won't regress?
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How quickly do PDOs regress to the mean most of the time?

AVB's PDO this season could have been a legitimate outlier, I imagine if not for the Bale screamers last season his overall PDO last season could have easily been significantly below 100 too?
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Can someone just tell me PDO is an abbreviation of? I'm assuming it roughly the conversion of chances created?
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

braineclipse said:
How quickly do PDOs regress to the mean most of the time?
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Pretty quickly as I understand it - within a few games. Those closer to the mean have less of a pull than the outliers

braineclipse said:
AVB's PDO this season could have been a legitimate outlier, I imagine if not for the Bale screamers last season his overall PDO last season could have easily been significantly below 100 too?
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As far as I can tell there are no long-term large outliers. The difference in shot ‰age and save ‰age between the best and worst teams is pretty small (around 4‰ on each). So even a terrible team compared to City/Arsenal should expect a comparable PDO over more than a handful of games.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Cochise said:
Can someone just tell me PDO is an abbreviation of? I'm assuming it roughly the conversion of chances created?
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It's not an abbreviation of anything.

It team shots ‰ + team saves ‰ should (within around 0-8‰) always equal 100. Some will multiply to 1000 but the ratio is always the same.

Seeing as all teams trend to the mean it's used as a very rough measure of how '(un)lucky' a team is.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

You make your own luck. Statistics are like bikinis - what they reveal is tantalising, what they hide is crucial.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

scaramanga said:
Pretty quickly as I understand it - within a few games. Those closer to the mean have less of a pull than the outliers



As far as I can tell there are no long-term large outliers. The difference in shot ‰age and save ‰age between the best and worst teams is pretty small (around 4‰ on each). So even a terrible team compared to City/Arsenal should expect a comparable PDO over more than a handful of games.
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That is where you are mistaken based on the analysis you presented.
He has not done it on goals as a % shots (where the range is between 13% and 5% scored, and 93% to 89% saved) but has done it based on Goals Scored as a % of Shots on Target (where the variance per team is between 45% and 17% for scoring, and 68% and 81% conceding) so a much greater variance. Quality of shots selection will be a large determining factor in this. Our low percentage long distance shooting under AVB will have counted significantly against us.

The top PDO teams under the method you presumed (the only ones over 100) he was using were in order Arsenal, Emirates Marketing Project, Liverpool, Chelsea, Everton & Man Utd. Under Sherwood we are, but were not under AVB.
This is not luck unless you are saying the only reasons these teams are the best in the League, is because they are the luckiest, rather than they have the best players.

You have also said all evidence suggests teams regress to 100. I have not seen this in relation to football. In football the best teams will have the best PDO. They have paid for the best players, and providing they perform to those levels they will always have a greater PDO.

Our PDO under the method you thought was being used was 93.6 under AVB, and 108.5 under Sherwood. Again this is because of the better quality of chances being created now, i.e. almost all shots now are from inside the box, rather than the majority being from outside of it, rather than just being luckier.
 
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Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Rossi22 said:
Basically Sherwood is doing too good which means we're likely to crash and burn soon so we should've stayed with the safe and steady AVB.
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Is that the jist of it?

AVB has been Michael Jordan'd out of here. Levy didn't even have the decency to Patrick Ewing or Larry Bird him.....he straight Air Jordan'd him out after a 0-5 home defeat. That's life....no amount of bitching about Sherwood will bring that pretender back.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Trotter said:
That is where you are mistaken based on the analysis you presented.
He has not done it on goals as a % shots (where the range is between 13% and 5% scored, and 93% to 89% saved) but has done it based on Goals Scored as a % of Shots on Target (where the variance per team is between 45% and 17% for scoring, and 68% and 81% conceding) so a much greater variance. Quality of shots selection will be a large determining factor in this. Our low percentage long distance shooting under AVB will have counted significantly against us.

The top PDO teams under the method you presumed (the only ones over 100) he was using were in order Arsenal, Emirates Marketing Project, Liverpool, Chelsea, Everton & Man Utd. Under Sherwood we are, but were not under AVB.
This is not luck unless you are saying the only reasons these teams are the best in the League, is because they are the luckiest, rather than they have the best players.

You have also said all evidence suggests teams regress to 100. I have not seen this in relation to football. In football the best teams will have the best PDO. They have paid for the best players, and providing they perform to those levels they will always have a greater PDO.

Our PDO under the method you thought was being used was 93.6 under AVB, and 108.5 under Sherwood. Again this is because of the better quality of chances being created now, i.e. almost all shots now are from inside the box, rather than the majority being from outside of it, rather than just being luckier.
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That's an interesting interpretation to say the least.

Can you let me know where you've got the ranges from?

The last couple of paragraphs show quite the misunderstanding of what PDO is/means. PDO used in this sense is showing how much a team is outperforming its shots/saves - statistically this is mostly made up of 'luck'/random events.

As for the regression of PDO in the PL, you should read the article I linked to. The author links to it himself, as well as explaining who is over and underperforming. In case you can't be arsed, here's the link:
http://jameswgrayson.wordpress.com/2011/04/15/pdo-part-ii/
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

If anything, it was AVB's record which was unsustainable. 15 goals scored and 21 conceded in 16 games, yet we collected 27 points. I think West Brom had the same record at the time but had 14 points less or something. How many more times could we narrowly beat poor sides thanks to fortunate penalties, own goals, wonder goals or stoppage time winners?
 
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Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

AuroRaman said:
I have literally no idea what anyone is talking about.
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In layman's terms, some clever types have found a way of separating good/bad 'luck' from being better/worse than the opponent.

When AVB was sacked he was on a run of bad 'luck', Timmeh has been on the most ridiculous (in the words of the author) run of 'luck' since taking over.

*Luck being merely a lazy way of saying positive/negative random events.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Rossi22 said:
If anything, it was AVB's record which was unsustainable. 15 goals scored and 21 conceded in 16 games, yet we collected 27 points. I think West Brom had the same record at the time but had 14 points less or something. How many more times could we narrowly beat poor sides thanks to fortunate penalties, own goals, wonder goals or stoppage time winners?
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That's sort of what the stats show, you've just interpreted them wrong.

The PDO shows that we were unlucky not to score/save more, we won the games we did because we were better than the opposition. Take away the bad 'luck' and we'd have won even more.
 
Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

scaramanga said:
That's sort of what the stats show, you've just interpreted them wrong.

The PDO shows that we were unlucky not to score/save more, we won the games we did because we were better than the opposition. Take away the bad 'luck' and we'd have won even more.
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But we clearly weren't. I can name the games on one hand where that was the case, the rest of the time it was dour football where we were bailed(not Baled, that was the previous season) out thanks to fortunate penalties, own goals, centre backs hitting 30 yard half volleys into the bottom corner, stoppage time winners. What we were doing under AVB was completely unsustainable, a team with a 15:21 goals record should've been well in the bottom half, it was GOOD luck that we weren't, not bad. AVB's gameplan was to squeeze the life out of the game, if he could win it 50.01 to 49.99(I'm not talking about possession here) then he was thrilled, it was awful, the cracks were getting bigger and bigger and the walls well and truly came crashing down at home to Liverpool. I'm glad that chancer is gone.
 
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