The Power of Expectation

[Raziel]

We got outscored heavily against City after a sending off and several penalties. You have no issues bring up the red card yesterday as "an assist" for our win, but you give Poch no such leeway when it's the other way around...

The fact is that teams like City are capable of scoring a lot against even better teams than us when they're on their game and the opposition is having a slightly off game. Another fact is that Hull conceded 3 at home to Arsenal, 4 at home to Saudi Sportswashing Machine and 4 away to Southampton last season.

It's always small margins, I agree, cards go for/against you, my point was in yesterday's case specifically, no red card = no Spurs win, no question for me

Yes Hull conceded 3 and 4, we conceded 3 to West Ham last season, plus what, 4, 5, 6 goal games, regularly?

My point, player quality is not the issue when our squad conceded 27 goals in a season against top 4 clubs, fundamentally you either have naïve management/coaching or a lack of belief in what management/coaching is trying to do from players.

Poch to me, has to at least be able to manage what a mid to lower level club can/do manage with some regularity against top 4 opposition.
This is what we did in the BMJ -> Harry era, i.e. go from losing always, to mostly drawing, to eventually winning, to winning some on their grounds.
We have regressed, yet still play like we have Modric/VDV/Bale on pitch and get smashed.. it's naïve and poor management

 

[K.D.D.D.D.Soc]

I don't think it's only the fans who have high expectations of the team, with the exception of the Woolwich game and Chelski a few years ago I can't think of an away game where we had set out to defend and strike on the break. Virtually every club in the league do this when playing away yet it seems unexceptable for us to do it.

 

[Millsy_Yiddo]

I agree, my point however is we have conceded some **** like 27 ****ing goals against top 4 in the last season, you would think one of three ****ing managers would realize we are too open, using the wrong tactics and at least emulate what a much poorer team in terms of quality is capable of doing (Poch to me actually did this against the Scum and it worked, then reverted to the lets try to outplay a side that cost a billion dollars and we conceded heavily again).

Were we are as a club currently, there's nothing wrong with going to the top 4 and looking to sneak a draw. Totally agree with that, but over the past few seasons, our fans have expected us to go toe to toe with them. You know yourself that if any of our managers (including Poch) over the past few seasons, set out against the top 4 to sneak a draw/win there would be complaints that we aren't going for it as we should be looking to sit along side these clubs or it's not the 'Spurs way'. If things went wrong and we lost 1-0 there would be absolute meltdown amongst the fans. Spurs managers are damned if they do, damned if they don't.

I do think Poch is struggling, both tactically and in his effort to make judgment calls/man management, beyond just style adoption
- The Ade/Capue/Kaboul decisions highlight that, I think we are now afraid of Ade, and he should have been dropped (or put to play in Europe 5 games ago), Kaboul was a risk for captain that has seemed to backfire (do we now drop our captain?) and Capoue was a big gamble to choose over Sandro (and again, looks like the wrong call)
- Kane feels like fan pressure instead of a manager seeing/playing the in form striker.

I agree with all your points in terms of the decisions he's made. The difference is that at the moment in time I'm prepared to accept them, if after Christmas he's still persevering with Kaboul and Ade even though their performances are still below par then I'll question it. If it's the same by the end of the season I'll absolutely question it.

I don't think at all he is afraid of Ade though. I genuinely do think that at some point he's seen something that makes him think Ade is suited to what he wants to do. I'm prepared to see that out to it's conclusion which is either going to be a fully functional and firing Ade, or one sitting on the bench getting splinters in his ****. Kaboul was a risk, again, I'm giving him a by-ball on that for now based on the fact it is early days and Kaboul will either start improving through Poch's coaching and teaching of a system or be dropped because he can't pick it up. I absolutely do think Poch has the balls to drop our captain if need be. I absolutely don't rate Kaboul at all by the way.

Regarding Sandro, I think he was sold due to injuries, I can't see any other reason for it. He's only completed 2 full games with QPR since signing and the fact that he went to QPR (with Harry who's well known to take a risk on an injury prone player if he thinks they are good enough) suggest to me that this is why. I am a little perplexed at the lack of league playing time Stambouli has seen though.

 

[braineclipse]

It's always small margins, I agree, cards go for/against you, my point was in yesterday's case specifically, no red card = no Spurs win, no question for me

Yes Hull conceded 3 and 4, we conceded 3 to West Ham last season, plus what, 4, 5, 6 goal games, regularly?

My point, player quality is not the issue when our squad conceded 27 goals in a season against top 4 clubs, fundamentally you either have naïve management/coaching or a lack of belief in what management/coaching is trying to do from players.

Poch to me, has to at least be able to manage what a mid to lower level club can/do manage with some regularity against top 4 opposition.
This is what we did in the BMJ -> Harry era, i.e. go from losing always, to mostly drawing, to eventually winning, to winning some on their grounds.
We have regressed, yet still play like we have Modric/VDV/Bale on pitch and get smashed.. it's naïve and poor management

Another margin. No Ade miss one on one, no Villa win!

Not sure how relevant the 27 conceded last season are to Poch. If you want to cry go watch our away performances to City last season and this season, I haven't (I don't like crying), but I think there's a huge difference in performance. And if you want to talk about performance (seems so based on the penalty comment) this certainly matters!

 

[billyiddo]

It's always small margins, I agree, cards go for/against you, my point was in yesterday's case specifically, no red card = no Spurs win, no question for me

Yes Hull conceded 3 and 4, we conceded 3 to West Ham last season, plus what, 4, 5, 6 goal games, regularly?

My point, player quality is not the issue when our squad conceded 27 goals in a season against top 4 clubs, fundamentally you either have naïve management/coaching or a lack of belief in what management/coaching is trying to do from players.

Poch to me, has to at least be able to manage what a mid to lower level club can/do manage with some regularity against top 4 opposition.
This is what we did in the BMJ -> Harry era, i.e. go from losing always, to mostly drawing, to eventually winning, to winning some on their grounds.
We have regressed, yet still play like we have Modric/VDV/Bale on pitch and get smashed.. it's naïve and poor management

Liverpool aside we have clearly set up differently against the top teams so far this season compared to last (Scum & City) - compact at the back, let the opponents come towards us before regaining possession and hitting them on the counter at pace. sound exactly like the change in approach that you are looking for? ok against City we ended up on the end of another 4 goals conceded, but two were penalties and overall we were much more in the game than we were in the games against the top sides last season, sometimes the best teams just make their quality show. this to me shows Pochettino is far from naive when it comes to our limitations when faced up against the leagues best.

 

[Raziel]

Liverpool aside we have clearly set up differently against the top teams so far this season compared to last (Scum & City) - compact at the back, let the opponents come towards us before regaining possession and hitting them on the counter at pace. sound exactly like the change in approach that you are looking for? ok against City we ended up on the end of another 4 goals conceded, but two were penalties and overall we were much more in the game than we were in the games against the top sides last season, sometimes the best teams just make their quality show. this to me shows Pochettino is far from naive when it comes to our limitations when faced up against the leagues best.

Scum to me was Poch at his smartest/most flexible, City seemed naïve, but will concede hard to judge because of penalties/**** ref/circumstances.

I think my point is

- Some people seem to think Poch should be/will be given leeway regardless of result due to needing time.
- My view is, he won't get it as such a blank check, if we are/were in bottom 5 come xmas, I would not in the least bit surprised if Levy pulled the trigger.

His balance is to build the plane while flying, keep us respectable (not overachieving), while working on his system, tough, but I don't think it is an unrealistic expectation

 

[billyiddo]

there's obviously a tipping point where the immediate concerns will outweigh the long term vision, but that's something for the chairman to worry about. we need reign in our expectations and let the man do his job, if that takes a season or so of inconsistent performances then so be it. not many people seem to be hopeful of a top 4 finish anytime soon so there's little to lose by giving him time.

 

[ringo]

While results are, of course, very important, I tend to judge managers by the way we play and the decisions that the manager makes.
We had reasonable results under AVB but it was some of the dullest football I have ever witnessed at WHL. Plus he made some odd decisions, and never seemed to decide which was his best side or what were the players' best positions. Under Harry we played some very exciting football, but I did get frustrated by his tendency to wait a long time before making a substitute.

As for Poch, I am worried about the football we are playing. Although Poch was said to be a fan of pressing, we don't appear to be pressing. And I've not really noticed any strong philosophy or style pervade or team under Poch yet. I'm not convinced that he knows which players are best in which positions. I've not been convinced about his tendency to keep playing certain players in certain positions or about his starting line ups. And then we lack width, persist with inverted wingers, sideline Eriksen.

My concerns about Poch before he was appointed were much the same as they are now:
1. I wasn't that impressed with Southampton when they played us under Poch -they were an OK team but maybe then they had some very good players.
2. I thought he might turn out to be similar to AVB in football philosophy and style. -- And he still might.
3. He lacked experience. -- And he has looked bit out of his depth at moments.

But until we buy some players that he asks for it will be difficult to tell for sure. At the moment though, based on the way that we are playing and the decisions he is making, I remain to be convinced.

 

[braineclipse]

Scum to me was Poch at his smartest/most flexible, City seemed naïve, but will concede hard to judge because of penalties/**** ref/circumstances.

I think my point is

- Some people seem to think Poch should be/will be given leeway regardless of result due to needing time.
- My view is, he won't get it as such a blank check, if we are/were in bottom 5 come xmas, I would not in the least bit surprised if Levy pulled the trigger.

His balance is to build the plane while flying, keep us respectable (not overachieving), while working on his system, tough, but I don't think it is an unrealistic expectation

Who?

We're in 8th, 4 points behind 4th, 6 points ahead of the bottom 3. Currently the bottom 5 has somewhere around 10 points. If they keep their current points per game ratio they'll have 20 points after 20 games (and this seems about par for relegation threatened teams). In other words we have to pick up 7 points in our next 10 games to stay out of the bottom 5 by well after Christmas. I don't see the issue. We might have been lucky to win at Villa, but we easily deserved a draw. In other games like Sunderland away we easily deserved a win and only got a draw. On balance I don't think we've gotten all that many points more or less than we've deserved this season.

While results are, of course, very important, I tend to judge managers by the way we play and the decisions that the manager makes.
We had reasonable results under AVB but it was some of the dullest football I have ever witnessed at WHL. Plus he made some odd decisions, and never seemed to decide which was his best side or what were the players' best positions. Under Harry we played some very exciting football, but I did get frustrated by his tendency to wait a long time before making a substitute.

As for Poch, I am worried about the football we are playing. Although Poch was said to be a fan of pressing, we don't appear to be pressing. And I've not really noticed any strong philosophy or style pervade or team under Poch yet. I'm not convinced that he knows which players are best in which positions. I've not been convinced about his tendency to keep playing certain players in certain positions or about his starting line ups. And then we lack width, persist with inverted wingers, sideline Eriksen.

My concerns about Poch before he was appointed were much the same as they are now:
1. I wasn't that impressed with Southampton when they played us under Poch -they were an OK team but maybe then they had some very good players.
2. I thought he might turn out to be similar to AVB in football philosophy and style. -- And he still might.
3. He lacked experience. -- And he has looked bit out of his depth at moments.

But until we buy some players that he asks for it will be difficult to tell for sure. At the moment though, based on the way that we are playing and the decisions he is making, I remain to be convinced.

Agreed up to a point. Where we have seen pressing imo is against smaller teams like Brighton in the cup. I'm just speculating here, but I'm kinda guessing whilst Poch tried some high pressing in pre-season he might not have liked the team's ability to consistently perform in that high pressing style. He might have chosen to implement this rather risky style a bit slower than he might have initially wanted to.

 

[sc25]

But until we buy some players that he asks for it will be difficult to tell for sure....

Thus far he asked for Davies, Fazio, Stambouli, Dier and Vorm?

I assume he didn't ask for Sandro or Sig.

 

[NWND]

This, no problem with us "adjusting" and being in 8th-10th, but without us pulling a rabbit out of the hat yesterday (absolutely assisted by opposition player getting himself sent off), we would have been what, 15th? unacceptable under any circumstances ..

Well that rabbit out of the hat hasn't even begun to make up for some pretty sh**y luck so far this season including a ridiculous amount of red cards, penalties. Football doesn't work the way you would like it to. You can't point to one game we actually won where we played badly as proof of something. It's a one off game. That we won. I'm sure Poch could point to Sunderland away, a game we dominated completely and missed countless chances. A game where they managed a 2 f**king 2 draw while only having ONE shot on goal all game.

I also think we gave City a game at their place before the red card and played some great football in that game.

In fact, I know that v QPR, v Sunderland, v Southampton, v City the football I saw from the team was the best i've seen since Redknapp's days. Also, we managed to give Arsenal the hardest game they've had against us at the Death Star since we won 3-2 in 10/11.

Even the first half v Saudi Sportswashing Machine was decent. So we've had a 90 minutes of crap v WBA, a half of crap v Saudi Sportswashing Machine, 70 minutes of crap v Aston Villa. The WBA and Saudi Sportswashing Machine 45 mins cost us points, the Villa game didn't. Liverpool game i can forgive because really we didn't play that bad, just had a disaster defensively and they did us on the break through Sterling who was on fire that day.

League position doesn't mean that much this early on in the season anyway. You can look at the table at this point for the last 10 seasons and bar a few teams, will bear very little resemblance to the final standings.

 

[Kandi1977]

Well that rabbit out of the hat hasn't even begun to make up for some pretty sh**y luck so far this season including a ridiculous amount of red cards, penalties. Football doesn't work the way you would like it to. You can't point to one game we actually won where we played badly as proof of something. It's a one off game. That we won. I'm sure Poch could point to Sunderland away, a game we dominated completely and missed countless chances. A game where they managed a 2 f**king 2 draw while only having ONE shot on goal all game.

I also think we gave City a game at their place before the red card and played some great football in that game.

In fact, I know that v QPR, v Sunderland, v Southampton, v City the football I saw from the team was the best i've seen since Redknapp's days. Also, we managed to give Arsenal the hardest game they've had against us at the Death Star since we won 3-2 in 10/11.

Even the first half v Saudi Sportswashing Machine was decent. So we've had a 90 minutes of crap v WBA, a half of crap v Saudi Sportswashing Machine, 70 minutes of crap v Aston Villa. The WBA and Saudi Sportswashing Machine 45 mins cost us points, the Villa game didn't. Liverpool game i can forgive because really we didn't play that bad, just had a disaster defensively and they did us on the break through Sterling who was on fire that day.

League position doesn't mean that much this early on in the season anyway. You can look at the table at this point for the last 10 seasons and bar a few teams, will bear very little resemblance to the final standings.

I completely agree with you. I have watched all the games at least 2 times (you don't really see what's going on when emotions are flowing), and tbh, the performances haven't been that bad, except vs WBA where we seemed worryingly lackluster.
All in all we have played quite well, and certainly on par with what we can expect at this stage. We are still in a decent position compared to our rivals, and I can only see the team improving. What we DO lack, is a top top player that can change games on his own. We had that in Bale, 'Pool had that in Suarez, and our other rivals, Chelski, Manure, Emirates Marketing Project and Arsenal still have such players in plenty. That puts us in a clear disadvantage and if we still manage to compete and be on par with any of those, it's a major achievement! COYS!!!

 

[Gutter Boy]

The thing AVB doesn't get credited with was coping with the loss of Modric, vdV and King ahead of his first season. That was 3 of our 4 world class players, and yet we still did better that season than the one before. The loss of our 4th and final a year later was clearly too big a blow for us to spring back from without having to properly start anew.

Re Southampton, to me this season they are clearly like Swansea under Laudrup - just running on really solid foundations and momentum. I do think the wheels will come off (relatively, the foundations are still there) over the coming months.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Scum to me was Poch at his smartest/most flexible, City seemed naïve, but will concede hard to judge because of penalties/**** ref/circumstances.

I think my point is

- Some people seem to think Poch should be/will be given leeway regardless of result due to needing time.
- My view is, he won't get it as such a blank check, if we are/were in bottom 5 come xmas, I would not in the least bit surprised if Levy pulled the trigger.

His balance is to build the plane while flying, keep us respectable (not overachieving), while working on his system, tough, but I don't think it is an unrealistic expectation

That's what we did with Nicholson and Burkinshaw

Nicholson finished 18th in his first season (21st and 22nd were the relegation spots at that time) and Burkinshaw got us relegated. But people saw what they were doing would have a long term benefit, and backed them to see the job through.

Panicking and continual flip-flopping between progressive and conservative coaches is what is holding us back more than anything

 

[Millsy_Yiddo]

That's what we did with Nicholson and Burkinshaw

Nicholson finished 18th in his first season (21st and 22nd were the relegation spots at that time) and Burkinshaw got us relegated. But people saw what they were doing would have a long term benefit, and backed them to see the job through.

Panicking and continual flip-flopping between progressive and conservative coaches is what is holding us back more than anything

Football is a very different world nowadays, I don't think any manager in the top 7-8 clubs would survive a relegation now, but in principle, I absolutely agree with you. Patience is 100% what needs to be shown here.

 

[jts1882]

Indeed football is very different now. One reason I enjoyed the Moyes situation last year (nothing against him), it was watching United fans after going on and on about the United Way being one of patience, despite their record between Busby and Fergie.

There is little evidence that any club would give a manager more than a few years of underperformance. Fergie and Wenger had long tenures because they delivered and Wenger still delivers, just about. Moyes managed to match Kenwright's expectations. Similarly, managers like Curbishley, Hughes and Allardyce at Charlton, Blackburn and Bolton surpassed their clubs reasonable expectations.

I have no explanation for Pardew, though.

 

[braineclipse]

Indeed football is very different now. One reason I enjoyed the Moyes situation last year (nothing against him), it was watching United fans after going on and on about the United Way being one of patience, despite their record between Busby and Fergie.

There is little evidence that any club would give a manager more than a few years of underperformance. Fergie and Wenger had long tenures because they delivered and Wenger still delivers, just about. Moyes managed to match Kenwright's expectations. Similarly, managers like Curbishley, Hughes and Allardyce at Charlton, Blackburn and Bolton surpassed their clubs reasonable expectations.

I have no explanation for Pardew, though.

Ashely has no ambitions for the club beyond staying in the Premier Leauge, Pardew is a yes man who accepts what most managers wouldn't from the board/chairman.

 

[Jordinho]

Indeed football is very different now. One reason I enjoyed the Moyes situation last year (nothing against him), it was watching United fans after going on and on about the United Way being one of patience, despite their record between Busby and Fergie.

There is little evidence that any club would give a manager more than a few years of underperformance. Fergie and Wenger had long tenures because they delivered and Wenger still delivers, just about. Moyes managed to match Kenwright's expectations. Similarly, managers like Curbishley, Hughes and Allardyce at Charlton, Blackburn and Bolton surpassed their clubs reasonable expectations.

I have no explanation for Pardew, though.

The trick for that level of clubs is to get out before they suffer a dip. It always happens, just look at Saudi Sportswashing Machine. Even Chelsea and City can't stay on upward trend forever, as seen in recent years.

 

[sc25]

Football is a very different world nowadays, I don't think any manager in the top 7-8 clubs would survive a relegation now.

Millsy, yep, that's how it is these days. All managers are aware of it, and they know it going in. When they take the job and they go about implementing their respective 'system' they are tasked with still getting results along the way. And the bigger the club, the more of a balancing act it is. When they hire on it prolly goes something like this...'Well, I want to implement my system and style of play, and get a few of 'my' players in, which will take time. But having assessed the current situation and the squad today as is, which is a big reason I'm coming here, I still feel I have the ability and knowledge to get results and success in the interim time too'. Response...'Good, that's what we figured, that's what we want and need, and that's one of the main factors in why we are choosing to hire you'.

 

[NWND]

The thing AVB doesn't get credited with was coping with the loss of Modric, vdV and King ahead of his first season. That was 3 of our 4 world class players, and yet we still did better that season than the one before. The loss of our 4th and final a year later was clearly too big a blow for us to spring back from without having to properly start anew.

Re Southampton, to me this season they are clearly like Swansea under Laudrup - just running on really solid foundations and momentum. I do think the wheels will come off (relatively, the foundations are still there) over the coming months.

Southampton while they are a good team have also had a pretty easy start and have lost to both of last season's top 8 teams they've had to play.