The Next Step?

[The Moonlit Knight]

"The Manager isn't the man to take us forward, we need someone else to get to the next step.". I've been reading that sort of thing a lot on this forum over recent weeks. I was wondering what most people think the next steps are, and probably more important how realistic are they to actually be able to achieve?

I don't want this to be a Redknapp is excellent/crap thread. This is more about what people perceive the next step to be, and how they'd achieve it and whether they're realistic in the beliefs.

Here are some pretty undisputable facts:

Our current state
We'll be challenging for 3rd place up until the final game of the season, regardless of the Villa result.

If we win both our remaining games, we WILL finish 3rd.

Our transfer record fee for a player purchased is ?ú16.5m, the British transfer record is over 3x that amount. City, Chelsea, Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool, Villa, Leeds and Saudi Sportswashing Machine (dependant on what you believe they paid for Owen) all have higher record transfer fees. Everton are just behind having reportedly paid close to ?ú16m for Fellaini.

The highest Premiership finish we've achieved is 4th, achieved two seasons ago.

The last time we finished 3rd was 1990.

The last time we won the FA Cup was 1991.

The last time we finished higher than 3rd, was when we finished 2nd in 1963. Now that is certainly a date I'd like for us to mull over for a second!!

We have ony won the title TWICE in our entire history.

The current state of English football

The Premiership has been running since the 92/93 season (19 complete seasons, this season's completion will be the 20th). In that time there have been just four different winners. If Emirates Marketing Project win it this year, they will become the 5th different club to win it.

Out of the four clubs that have won it, two of them were privately bankrolled (Blackburn & Chelsea). If Emirates Marketing Project win it they will be the 3rd club out of 5 who are bankrolled. The only two clubs who have won it who aren't bankrolled are Man Utd (the largest club in the world) and Arsenal. Arsenal last won the title in 2003/04. The end of this season will be mark the 8th consecutive season when a non global footballing giant or privately bankrolled team won the league.

Since the inception of the Premiership, only 7 different clubs have won the FA Cup. Since 2000/01 season, the two British footballing superpowers (Utd and Liverpool) have won 3 of them. Bankrolled clubs have won 5 of them (all within the last 6 seasons), Arsenal won 3 of them but their last win was 2005. The only non-large club to win an FA Cup in recent years was Portsmouth. Indeed since 1987/88 (Wimbledon's upset) it could be argued that Portsmouth are the only non giant to win it. Everton won it in 1995, but they are quite a big club and back then the playing field was a lot more level than it is now.

Despite Champions League revenue, and increased Premiership revenue most clubs either are in serious debt, or were bailed out. Even the two English footballing superpowers.

The Champions League has changed the face of priorities. Finishing 4th is more important than winning the FA Cup. I don't like that, but it's the truth. The League Cup practically means zero. Not only that but the stakes for top four are so high now that a lot of clubs seem determined to break the bank to reach it.....even though the revenue gained from it won't cover what they've spent to get there! That is a broken business model.

So pushing on then....

We can all dream. Our motto is Audere Est Facere, so by no means should we ever give up. But like all dreams, they have to be tempered by realism. If I was managing a cancer scientific research team, I wouldn't fire my head scientist every couple of years because they'd failed to find the cure for cancer.

I keep hearing our fans talking about pushing on. To where exactly? What ARE the expectations of these fans, taking the above into consideration?

Wake Up Call

The chances of Spurs winning the league in the short to medium term aren't just slim, they are practically anorexic. Some of you guys won't want to hear that, but it's the truth. Look at those facts from above. Is it possible that we may do it? Sure, anything is possible BUT realistically we'd be relying on two or three other clubs to completely fudge up their season like Chelsea have this year (and their fudged up season nets an FA Cup win and a Champion's League final!!) as much as us having a Saudi Sportswashing Machine like season and completely punching above our weight for an extraordinary period.

I often hear, or read, opinions that because we were so close to being at the top at Xmas that means we are title contenders, or could be. It doesn't work that way, never has done. If you were to go back through the last 25 years and take a look at the table at Xmas compared to the end of the season you will often see the same thing. One "competitive" club having a slow start and a couple of unfancied clubs near the top before dropping away as the season goes on. What makes it more absurd is that every season around Xmas people can't remember a season like it where Ipswich, Norwich, Hull etc are in the top six!

So I'd be interested in what people realistically think pushing on from this moment in is. If we do replace the Manager, what are your expectations for the new Manager? Or to be more succinct, what are your answers to the following questions:

1) What would be the minimum achievement criteria for a new manager?
2) In what timescales would expect the above to be achieved?
3) At what stage would you cut the cord and replace the new manager if they didn't look like they were going to achieve it?
4) Do you think winning the Premiership is possible without a) a sugar daddy or b) us taking massive gambles and willingly getting ourselves into large debt to try?

My thoughts?

I think 3rd is as good as it gets. We may be able to sneak into 2nd, but to do so we'll be relying massively on City/Chelsea fudging up. Our biggest hope for advancement may yet be when Fergie decides enough is enough and leaves Utd. Even if we build a new stadium, I don't think we'll be competitive enough in the mid-term (whilst we are paying it back) and unless the sugar daddies get bored I can't see us being genuine contenders for years to come.

My final thought is if you take City out of the equation we'd have finished top four the last two seasons, and would be battling for 2nd right now. I do think we're making progress. I do think we're pushing on. As for the best we can get right now? It's being a regular top four challenging side and seriously competing for the domestic cups.

As for the Champions League itself? I actually believe it's easier to win that than the Premiership as you can get lucky draws or knock other teams out when they can't field their strongest team etc. Maybe it's because we haven't won it for so many years, but for me the League is still the holy grail.

 

[elltrev]

Good post. I agree with the sentiment.

To play devil's advocate though, perhaps we're not actually that far away from challenging for the title (or at least being closer to the top 2). Yes our budget is infinitely smaller than United, City and Chelsea, but despite that we've managed to get a number of players who are title-challenging-quality (I would say Friedel, Gallas, Bale, Sandro, Modric, VDV). Our squad definitely isn't as good as the Manchester teams, but with a couple of good signings in key positions and a bit of luck with injuries and results, we could get closer to the top two IMO. The key, of course, is holding on to our top players i.e. Bale and Modric. The difficulty is that the longer we go without challenging for the title, the more likely they are to leave. At which point we will probably struggle to attract anyone of the same quality.

It does feel like this is a pivotal moment in the club's development, especially with the new stadium on the horizon and the UEFA financial fair play rules coming into power. If we can finish 3rd this season and hold on to our best players, then we might well be able to consolidate ourselves as one of the top PL teams and even make a better push for the title in the coming seasons. If we finish lower and start to lose our best players, then we might have to go through a 're-building' phase where top 6 is the goal, and Champions League qualification is the dream again.

P.S. I liked your cancer research analogy. Of course we should always be aiming for higher, but I do find it aggravating when people don't seem to fully appreciate the success that we are currently having.

P.P.S. I do also think that the Champions League has ruined the Premier League to an extent. I wish someone had the balls and power to distribute the CL money more evenly throughout the entire league(s). You shouldn't need 'prize money' for your success; the success should be enough of a prize in and of itself.

 

[Leeds Spur]

Qataris looking to buy a club. It's the only way we can get the new stadium without a debt albatross around our necks. Once we have the stadium we can finance a big wage bill and hey presto!

 

[braineclipse]

The obvious next step or stepping stone is a new stadium. Until that is in place we will have to keep doing what we are doing.

I've said it repeatedly, but the main point for the summer is to get a manager that is here for the semi-long-term. We've been in an unstable position managerially for over a year now, and it has hurt us. I hope that manager is Harry, he's earned it and a new appointment would be a gamble either way. That being said, the manager needs to be someone Levy trusts. If Levy doesn't trust Harry with our transfer budget or for whatever other reasons then he needs to bring in someone he trusts.

With that manager in place we need to get back to basics in the transfer market. Make good deals, solid long term thinking. If we try to go toe to toe with United, City, Chelsea and even Arsenal in the transfer market we will lose long term. We have to make better, smarter, more cost effective deals. I would love to see us spice that up with one top class signing if we can find the right player, but it has to be the absolute right player for us to go for it.

In short we need to continue doing what got us here in the first place.

 

[elltrev]

Qataris looking to buy a club. It's the only way we can get the new stadium without a debt albatross around our necks. Once we have the stadium we can finance a big wage bill and hey presto!

I know this is just a realistic approach so I'm not having a go, but it saddens me that fans focus on this kind of thing. Personally I'm proud to support a club that is run so shrewdly, and that has brought us great success without resorting to being pumped full of money that is not our own.

 

[Crawley]

Moonlit.......you're not Harry Redknapp using a ghost writer, are you?!!!!!

Seriously though, the entire post is well thought out. The only argument I'd make is that actually, we are already challenging for the top, we simply are not quite ready, or quite the finished product just yet as proved this season.

IF we get 3rd, the players we will attract could make that tiny step to proper challengers that we all hope for. That and no distractions for Harry.

 

[johnola]

Levy as Daedalus, the club as Icarus.

No point arguing about the type of wax and feathers when the Sky is full of Plutocrats flying around in their jets.

 

[The Moonlit Knight]

Moonlit.......you're not Harry Redknapp using a ghost writer, are you?!!!!!

Seriously though, the entire post is well thought out. The only argument I'd make is that actually, we are already challenging for the top, we simply are not quite ready, or quite the finished product just yet as proved this season.

IF we get 3rd, the players we will attract could make that tiny step to proper challengers that we all hope for. That and no distractions for Harry.

I don't think the gap is tiny unfortunately. Also I think it's getting those new players in that will be our greatest challenge. We don't pay top $$$, so that means we're looking for more potential style buys than actual proven quality in their prime. We simply can't afford the latter, no matter how well we do in the League.

If there was just one sugar daddied club in the Premiership I'd say we have a stronger chance. Utd, despite their size, are organically grown and a couple of big paying, high wages poor purchases and they're stuck with them and that can hamper their progress in the short term. So it's possible we could get past them at some stage if they fudge up (or when Fergie leaves). But to beat two sugar daddied clubs? I can't see it. We may be able to get past one, like this season, but to get past two AND a global footballing superpower during a season? The odds are heavily stacked against us.....regardless of who we have as Manager.

 

[The Moonlit Knight]

Levy as Daedalus, the club as Icarus.

No point arguing about the type of wax and feathers when the Sky is full of Plutocrats flying around in their jets.

So I waste 15 minutes typing all that up, and you get to the point better than me in just two lines. Bastard! :lol:

 

[milo]

An excellent post MK. I was thinking of starting a similar thread but I would not have started it as eloquently.

I have seen people calling for us to bust the bank this summer. Firstly, this is never going to happen under ENIC who are an investment company and the viability of their investment is the club remaining profitable and them being able to sell it for more in the future. Secondly, would people take investment in the first team this summer at the expense of a new stadium? The ?ú170k a week that Adebayor is reported to be is just shy of ?ú35.5k over a four year contract. That is before we consider the transfer fee or the cost of the increase in wages that other players at the club or new signings would expect. Signing a player on these kind of terms spends an entire years Champions League money in one go. This is unsustainable and is not going to happen until we have a bigger stadium to pay for it.

 

[Joesh]

I would say that is Redknapps biggest problem if people expect us to challenge for the title consistantly. If like MK has done you look at the stats and take out our bias, it is not looking good under our current circumstances. Even if we get a new stadium to cover wages, the stadium itself will take a fair chunk of our earnings. It was discussed here in the Has Redknapp taken us as far as he can? thread, when the title could easily have been - Has Redknapp taken the club as far as it can go?

 

[Huddy]

Is it romantic and naive to want Spurs to move forward without being bank rolled akin to City?

Whatever your thoughts on Harry, it's likely he will be replaced over the next few years and with that I would like Levy to bring in a manager that can continue to maintain the type of attractive football we've become accustomed to over the decades, names have already been mentioned but my desire would be for a young manager with something to prove who is willing to commit long term to the club.

With the new training facilities in place lets put together a quality scouting network and bring in youth and promote from there, much like the way Barca currently are able to do. I don't expect Xavi's and Iniesta's but with the right investment we can supply the first team for many seasons ahead. As many have pointed out on this board there is talent out there that will not cost 20m+ and we should be identifying these players early and bringing them in should they fit the plan. I believe the best way to achieve this is bring back the DOF setup, allowing a dedicated team to bring players into the club.

I don't expect Spur's to realistically challenge for the title, but what I would be very happy with over the next 5 years is for us to continue to challenge for a top four finish and putting in decent runs in the Champions League when we get the chance. The exposure will be great for the club in terms of merchandising, the Champions League money will help to pay off loans and the club can continue to operate exactly how it is now a well run business which is sustainable going into the future.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

The next step for me is consolidation in the top 4, hopefully putting distance between top 4 and below. This allows us the profile and finance to build more. Introduce more quality.

From a managerial point of view, its all about planning for me. My biggest concern with Redknapp being his apparent lack of it.

There are things Redknapp has done that have been brilliant IMO. And getting us where we are is a great achievement in the scheme of where we were and where we are now.

Harry has got a first 11 to rival any in this league. Comprised of players he has introduced, and players he has developed (upon inheriting them). I dont believe a single player in that 11 has gone backwards under Redknapp, save King (which is our of his control), and Im not sure I can think of one that has simply stayed as they were.

We play eye catching and exciting football under him, though for me his greatest achievement is probably the resilience with which we play. We have gone from a team that believed we could be top 4 quality, to a team that believe we ARE top 4 quality.

This is where I think Harry begins to come unstuck though. I dont see structure to our team or squad, a defined method of play - and this in turn leaves our transfer policy somewhat disjointed. As well as our squad as it stands.

I believe Harry "doesnt do detail", in play. I think he manages the team tactically through selection, not instruction. The only time Ive seen obvious tactical instruction from him is Arsenal, we had a very different, defined and disciplined shape to overcome them, it was fantastic and one of my favourite Harry moments.

Instead of instructing players on patterns of movement, he puts compatible players together and lets them work naturally. If he wants to play narrow to counter a threat, or make up numbers centrally (for example), he will put VDV wide instead of Lennon. If he wants a direct game to overcome a defense he expects to sit deep he might drop VDV and play Defoe. Different players, playing naturally, offer him the level of control he likes.

This works amazingly when things are going well, which leads me to another strength of Harrys I admire - his ability to keep a good thing going. He has, a number of times with us, got us to hit form and been able to keep it going for an admirable length of time.

However, when things arent going well, a lack of detailed organisation has held us back IMO.

Any observation of the top teams, and teams that perform beyond their status/perceived standing shows a distinct pattern of play. A rehearsed and practiced shape and structure to the side. The immediate benefit of this is that on a bad day, you still have a base to work from, a basis from which to create results. Something effective and in built into the team. This is the foundation all great sides are built upon IMHO. This is also the foundation of a coherant and effective transfer (and player succession) policy.

Considering just how well we have done without this, I believe we would take a giant step forward if we introduced this level of planning/detail/management (call it what you will).

Over 4 years so far, it is my belief either Harry is not capable of or not willing to take this approach

 

[elltrev]

The next step for me is consolidation in the top 4, hopefully putting distance between top 4 and below. This allows us the profile and finance to build more. Introduce more quality.

From a managerial point of view, its all about planning for me. My biggest concern with Redknapp being his apparent lack of it.

There are things Redknapp has done that have been brilliant IMO. And getting us where we are is a great achievement in the scheme of where we were and where we are now.

Harry has got a first 11 to rival any in this league. Comprised of players he has introduced, and players he has developed (upon inheriting them). I dont believe a single player in that 11 has gone backwards under Redknapp, save King (which is our of his control), and Im not sure I can think of one that has simply stayed as they were.

We play eye catching and exciting football under him, though for me his greatest achievement is probably the resilience with which we play. We have gone from a team that believed we could be top 4 quality, to a team that believe we ARE top 4 quality.

This is where I think Harry begins to come unstuck though. I dont see structure to our team or squad, a defined method of play - and this in turn leaves our transfer policy somewhat disjointed. As well as our squad as it stands.

I believe Harry "doesnt do detail", in play. I think he manages the team tactically through selection, not instruction. The only time Ive seen obvious tactical instruction from him is Arsenal, we had a very different, defined and disciplined shape to overcome them, it was fantastic and one of my favourite Harry moments.

Instead of instructing players on patterns of movement, he puts compatible players together and lets them work naturally. If he wants to play narrow to counter a threat, or make up numbers centrally (for example), he will put VDV wide instead of Lennon. If he wants a direct game to overcome a defense he expects to sit deep he might drop VDV and play Defoe. Different players, playing naturally, offer him the level of control he likes.

This works amazingly when things are going well, which leads me to another strength of Harrys I admire - his ability to keep a good thing going. He has, a number of times with us, got us to hit form and been able to keep it going for an admirable length of time.

However, when things arent going well, a lack of detailed organisation has held us back IMO.

Any observation of the top teams, and teams that perform beyond their status/perceived standing shows a distinct pattern of play. A rehearsed and practiced shape and structure to the side. The immediate benefit of this is that on a bad day, you still have a base to work from, a basis from which to create results. Something effective and in built into the team. This is the foundation all great sides are built upon IMHO. This is also the foundation of a coherant and effective transfer (and player succession) policy.

Considering just how well we have done without this, I believe we would take a giant step forward if we introduced this level of planning/detail/management (call it what you will).

Over 4 years so far, it is my belief either Harry is not capable of or not willing to take this approach

Really good, balanced post mate. I've been thinking the same thing about Harry's management style.

Although I thought we had a clear (successful) gameplan against Swansea too.

 

[Libero]

I certainly don't want us breaing the bank this summer and deviating from the blueprint that in general has got us where we are now. What I do want though is a some loosening of the strings to a degree to allow us to make a statement signing but one that is value for money. As an example, if we were being quoted say ?ú30m + for Llorente then I wouldn't want us to blow what would really amount to our whole budget on him despite the fact he would be superb.

We can get value for money as an example by signing players around Europe that perhaps other clubs have forgotten because of their pursuit of the next big thing, like Jovetic or players that have minimal time left on their contract, like Huntelaar. These are players that we would possibly be able to get without smashing our wage ceiling and players that would no doubt improve our first 11/squad. Players like Vertonghen who are constantly linked would be in that bracket as well as the likes of Dembele and Hoilett. If we could get 3-4 of those said players I think we would be in a much better place especially with the departures off the wage bill like Bentley, Jenas, Gomes etc.

In relation to the manager, I still feel that to go that bit further we need to attract a top notch manager but if that is not available then I would stick with Harry. If we manage to finish 3rd then we have retrieved the season after looking like we had thrown it away so fair enough although the manner of what has gone in the 2nd half of the season cannot just be ignored. Having said that, the next appointment of manager is so important for our development given the stage we are at now, that it has to be absolutely spot on in terms of the person and the circumstances.

In terms of my own aspirations, I don't realistically expect us to win the title but I would like and expect to a degree us to challenge strongly every other season or so. And by that I mean be as were upto the Arsenal game but not have such a bad collapse that leaves us 18-19 points behind the winners. I want us to close the gap points wise between us and the winners more often than not. A cup every 3-4 years isn't too much to ask either to my mind but as long as we are pottering around the top 3-5 and remaining competitive with those around us then I am more than happy with that even when the new stadium is built, I just want Tottenham Hotspur to be mentioned in the same breath consistently as City, Man U, Chelsea, Arsenal in terms of the best clubs in England.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

So I waste 15 minutes typing all that up, and you get to the point better than me in just two lines. Bastard! :lol:

There is always one! :lol:

 

[johnola]

So I waste 15 minutes typing all that up, and you get to the point better than me in just two lines. Bastard! :lol:

Sorry Buddy, that was a superb post, so I'll take the time to answer your questions:

1) What would be the minimum achievement criteria for a new manager
To improve the overall relative quality of players at the Club.
2) In what timescales would expect the above to be achieved?
Over their tenure.
3) At what stage would you cut the cord and replace the new manager if they didn't look like they were going to achieve it?
Making a catastrophic error in the transfer or the mis-management of players or if they are just not working hard enough on addressing glaring tactical and coaching deficiencies
4) Do you think winning the Premiership is possible without a) a sugar daddy or b) us taking massive gambles and willingly getting ourselves into large debt to try?
Yes it is possible. Teams without our resources have bettered us over 38 games. It is the blend of players and coaching working within the financial model that matters

 

[Raziel]

Simple

- Either we go down the sugar daddy route and sell out to the next Billionaire looking for a toy and bragging rights
- We try to consolidate a CL spot (realistically 4th) for a few years while the stadium is being built
- With some consistant CL revenue behind us and a new stadium, then look for that next step, next manager.

Which is why, imo, if Harry manages to sqeaky bum us across the CL line this season (twice in three seasons), we should keep him another season or two. Let him be the interim solution while the stadium is being built, the club gets accustomed to CL, etc.

In 3 years (or so), with new training facilities, new stadium, then is time for "next step"

 

[Modric THFC]

Simple

- Either we go down the sugar daddy route and sell out to the next Billionaire looking for a toy and bragging rights
- We try to consolidate a CL spot (realistically 4th) for a few years while the stadium is being built
- With some consistant CL revenue behind us and a new stadium, then look for that next step, next manager.

Which is why, imo, if Harry manages to sqeaky bum us across the CL line this season (twice in three seasons), we should keep him another season or two. Let him be the interim solution while the stadium is being built, the club gets accustomed to CL, etc.

In 3 years (or so), with new training facilities, new stadium, then is time for "next step"

Hard not to agree with this. Appointing any new manager from who is available out there is too much of a gamble.

 

[Raziel]

4) Do you think winning the Premiership is possible without a) a sugar daddy or b) us taking massive gambles and willingly getting ourselves into large debt to try?
Yes it is possible. Teams without our resources have bettered us over 38 games. It is the blend of players and coaching working within the financial model that matters

Mate, no offense and nothing personal, but you are dreaming/completely deluded. People on this board go on about how we need x player, or a striker that can score/convert the chances we make, yep, exactly those players

- Rooney/Drogba/Tevez/Aguero/Silva/Torres/etc. ..

To win the PL, you will need multiple players in the 20-50M bracket, we don't even own one.

We have a first 11 that can compete, not a squad over 38 games, and that needs a budget 2X - 4X ours