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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

Although some might argue, being a supporter of Palestinian rights and an opponent of fascist Likud does not make a person anti Semitic.

He has associated with blatant anti-semites, such as Raed Saleh, who has promulgated blood libels, and whom Corbyn invited to tea at the Commons. That’s spectacularly careless for any politician who doesn’t want to be seen as anti-semitic.
 
Not sure whether this belongs here, or elsewhere, but given the trouble brewing in Ukraine/Russia. How likely from zero to hundred is World War 3? As it stands, the UK is politically unstable. China have been/are aides of Russia. I’d like to think it was closer to zero but have had suspicions for a major war since this time last year. I know that many of you have a political knowledge which far, far, exceeds that of my own and so I was interested on your take on the events that are playing out.
 
There was chat on the radio earlier about a defensive pact we have with Ukraine as part of their nuclear disarmament some years ago.

Not that we lifted a finger over Crimea.
 
Not sure whether this belongs here, or elsewhere, but given the trouble brewing in Ukraine/Russia. How likely from zero to hundred is World War 3? As it stands, the UK is politically unstable. China have been/are aides of Russia. I’d like to think it was closer to zero but have had suspicions for a major war since this time last year. I know that many of you have a political knowledge which far, far, exceeds that of my own and so I was interested on your take on the events that are playing out.

I think it depends on the domestic situation inside Russia. What pressures are causing Putin to sabre-rattle?

I don't think they'll go through with it. Russia prefers stalemate wars. Look at places like Transnistria or South Ossetia (Simon Reeve's series Places That Don't Exist series is great on those). They just stir up the chaos, but rarely go through with full-scale attacks. The current gueralla occupation of the Russian majority regions of east Donbas fits in that tradition

The one thing that might be different is if Putin and/or Russia feel this is their last chance. Putin is 70 now and Russia is going to get hammered by the oil and gas phase-out over the next decade. It will become a geo-political backwater without their fossil fuels, so they might see this as their last possible hurrah. A last sting in the tail of a dwindling empire
 
The fact that the UK and the US have withdrawn members from the embassy. Coupled with the need for greater economic stability, paired with the political instability which have occurred since the pandemic makes me think that this is an act which will be committed to by all parties.
Unfortunately war has often taken place during times of economic hardship and fuelled by resources as much as it is by actual political reason. The Gulf War and the ‘apparent’ motivation behind that being just one example. If that war was apparently motivated as much by oil as anything else then what hope now?
I say all this being politically naive, and just my own hunch about the World events. Russia and China have apparently been gathering together collectively and could use now to attack Ukraine, to then start the dominoes falling. Russia will be aware of possible consequences of any taken actions, and as such, it could be argued that at best any action would take place with no regard for possible actions and at worst that action is taken knowing that retaliation will be triggered.
 
I think a further invasion of Ukraine has a high probability of happening at this point though even maintaining the ground force at the border has its political uses. Putin sees this time as a moment of US weakness, after 4 years of Trump and the fractured US political landscape he left behind. Fiona Hill (of Trump's 1st impeachment fame) has a good article on this in the NYT today.

Sanctions will only be a deterrent if they go after Putin's money and that of his pet oligarchs (which is Putin's money also). That is the only thing that seems to agitate him and is certainly his weak point. There is also the threat of cutting off access to swift, though that is a double-edged sword in some ways.
 
China doesn't really do exterior military aggression (if you accept their view that Xinjiang, Tibet and Taiwan are interior provinces). All its energies are focused on not falling apart from the inside.

They do economic imperialism in spades, especially in Africa. But I don't think we'll ever see Chinese troops cross their borders.
 
I think a further invasion of Ukraine has a high probability of happening at this point though even maintaining the ground force at the border has its political uses. Putin sees this time as a moment of US weakness, after 4 years of Trump and the fractured US political landscape he left behind. Fiona Hill (of Trump's 1st impeachment fame) has a good article on this in the NYT today.

Sanctions will only be a deterrent if they go after Putin's money and that of his pet oligarchs (which is Putin's money also). That is the only thing that seems to agitate him and is certainly his weak point. There is also the threat of cutting off access to swift, though that is a double-edged sword in some ways.

At the moment, the line of control in Donbas is largely along ethic lines. If the Russians push on, they are pushing into majority Ukrainian areas, which they'll find much harder to justify and hold.

Events of the last 8 years have politically and socially pushed Ukraine massively towards Europe. I think they are probably on a 'fight them on the beaches' mentality towards Russia now.
 
At the moment, the line of control in Donbas is largely along ethic lines. If the Russians push on, they are pushing into majority Ukrainian areas, which they'll find much harder to justify and hold.

Events of the last 8 years have politically and socially pushed Ukraine massively towards Europe. I think they are probably on a 'fight them on the beaches' mentality towards Russia now.


Is the Eu and the Ukraine courting each other not the crux of the whole matter?
Putin sees Russian influence in the area not only waning but moving towards a rival?
The gradual distancing of the former Eastern bloc countries and their shift The eu has made the Ukraine a battle ground, not physically, i can't see it coming to that.
 
He has associated with blatant anti-semites, such as Raed Saleh, who has promulgated blood libels, and whom Corbyn invited to tea at the Commons. That’s spectacularly careless for any politician who doesn’t want to be seen as anti-semitic.


Politically naive i would argue and incredibly stupid.
 
Is the Eu and the Ukraine courting each other not the crux of the whole matter?
Putin sees Russian influence in the area not only waning but moving towards a rival?
The gradual distancing of the former Eastern bloc countries and their shift The eu has made the Ukraine a battle ground, not physically, i can't see it coming to that.

It was signing the EU Association Agreement in 2013 that kicked the whole thing off the whole Crimea thing. But even the joint hosting of Euro 2012 with Poland was a statement that Europe was their direction of travel.

Ukraine is kind of the one caught in the a middle (Serbia maybe too). The Baltics and Soviet Bloc are permanently gone, while Belarus is still/will always be very pro-Russian.
 
Strange to think that under Yeltsin in the 90s there was serious talk of Russia joining NATO.

I do think the fossil fuel phase out and a bit of democratisation will one day see Russia pivot back to being a European country itself.
 
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