Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[Gilzeantoscore]

Here we go again same fudging arguments about it being a bad thing.

Yeah hold your hands over your eyes and ears and it will all go away, you know the objective data that shows the damage that has been done and will continue to be done to the nation's economy. Look at the figures, the pound collapsed against the Euro when Brexit was passed and still is nowhere near parity. La, la, la.la.

 

[Gilzeantoscore]

If only it was about winning and losing like a football game, with few implications for the money in your pock and the opportunities of your kids and grandkids <insert your patented rolly eye emoji> Those things are not important? Just accept something that damages the nation? Don't have to scream, just try and understand the reality that future generations are left with. Because despite what you were promised, Brexit is not quick, we are not even across the line yet. One thing is for sure it will drag on, because there is no simple Brexit that works for our benefit.

It's called pride mate. Some will never admit that they made a bad call and resent being reminded of it. It's human nature, if I voted for Brexit in good faith and discovered I'd been conned, I'd be embarrassed and not want to be reminded about it too.

 

[P.D.]

Not sure how well this image will come out, but here’s the monthly GBP/EUR chart since 99 FWIW:

View attachment 8860

I stand corrected, out by quite a few years - looks like 2009 time it was at parity.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

These guys do this for a living. Bank of America should be pretty neutral. Here’s what they said:

Pound is becoming an emerging market currency, says BofA analyst

Brexit has permanently altered investors’ views on sterling, warns strategist

The pound is now an emerging-market currency in all but name, according to analysts at Bank of America, who say that Brexit has turned it into a mirror of the “small and shrinking” UK economy.

In the four years since the UK voted to leave the EU, trading conditions in the pound and the big swings in exchange rates make it a better match with the Mexican peso than the US dollar, said Kamal Sharma, a currency analyst at BofA. He said that movements in the currency since the June 2016 Brexit vote have become “neurotic at best, unfathomable at worst”.

“We believe sterling is evolving into a currency that resembles the underlying reality of the British economy: small and shrinking with a growing dual deficit problem”

Kamal Sharma, Bank of America

Traditionally, sterling has been part of the so-called G5 currency group — alongside the dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc — as one of the most heavily traded and therefore safest currencies in the world.

But since the Brexit vote, uncertainties over the relationship between the UK and the EU have made investors less willing to take views on the currency, resulting in a drop in liquidity. That means that the pound can no longer be analysed according to the same framework as other major currencies, said Mr Sharma.

“The pound increasingly resembles the more liquid emerging market currencies rather than a core G10 currency,” Mr Sharma wrote in a research note to clients on Tuesday, the fourth anniversary of Britain’s referendum on EU membership.


The pound has not recovered to levels before the UK voted to leave the bloc, losing about one-fifth of its value. And since the start of the pandemic, sterling has moved violently. At the height of the crisis, investors were bracing for such great swings in the pound that only the Brazilian real experienced a larger increase in implied volatility.

Sterling plunged to a multi-decade low against the dollar in mid-March, before recovering after the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks stepped in to cool the dollar.




https://www.ft.com/content/4fd04fd9-7209-4b7c-97a1-97466f226159


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

what point were you making?

 

[SpurMeUp]

what point were you making?

That global markets do view the UK differently now contrary to posters assertions on the previous page.

This is costing you and everyone else. As MrG posted the devaluation post vote is many times more than we have ever paid the EU.

What pont are you making?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[Diamond Lights]

These guys do this for a living. Bank of America should be pretty neutral. Here’s what they said:

Pound is becoming an emerging market currency, says BofA analyst

Brexit has permanently altered investors’ views on sterling, warns strategist

The pound is now an emerging-market currency in all but name, according to analysts at Bank of America, who say that Brexit has turned it into a mirror of the “small and shrinking” UK economy.

Yeh nothing wrong on that, unfortunately people didn't vote Brexit for the economy as the warnings were there, it goes much deeper than that, the whole sense of 'sovereignty' and wafts of the Great British Empire.

Like i said before, viewing Brexit through the prism of economics and it falls over. However, viewing it on geopolitical landscape, and christ almighty, absolute rooster up. US, China, India, are superpowers, our economic output is closer to that of Italy than it is to Germany. As the EU strengthens to counteract both China and the US, it leaves the UK's decision to step out even more foolish

 

[Gilzeantoscore]

Have people been watching PMQ? By GHod it is getting ugly for Johnson. Starmer is smashing him out of the park and all Johnson can do is deflect, make excuses, answer a different question or outright lie. I'm almost feeling sorry for him.

 

[SpurMeUp]

It's called pride mate. Some will never admit that they made a bad call and resent being reminded of it. it's human nature, if I voted for Brexit in good faith and discovered I'd been conned, I'd be embarrassed and not want to be reminded about it too.

It does take strength to admit you’re wrong, even about Banal things! But I have zero criticism of those who voted for Brexit. Which was essentially the Tory party inflicting It’s internal strife onto the country. Brexit was so complex and not done before even those campaigning didn’t understand all the detailed ins and outs.

Moreover the sentiment of Brexit is good. A national drive for improvement and change. The devil was in the detail and the powers that be don’t want us to understand the detail. They’d much prefer the plebs to suck it up and use it as a force for them to gain power and greater wealth.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[Diamond Lights]

Have people been watching PMQ? By GHod is is getting ugly for Johnson. Starmer is smashing him out of the park and all Johnson can do is deflect, make excuses, answer a different question or outright lie. I'm almost feeling sorry for him.

Does it matter though? As long as Tories deliver Brexit, and Brexit is this thing that people want. I mean, The Sun is the biggest selling newspaper in the country, that's literally all you need to know.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

That global markets do view the UK differently now contrary to posters assertions on the previous page.

This is costing you and everyone else. As MrG posted the devaluation post vote is many times more than we have ever paid the EU.

What pont are you making?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

The BofA guy is not saying what you're saying

 

[SpurMeUp]

The BofA guy is not saying what you're saying

No? What is he saying, and what am I saying?

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

No? What is he saying, and what am I saying?

He's talking about the characteristics and behaviour of the £ not the worth or value.

 

[SpurMeUp]

He's talking about the characteristics and behaviour of the £ not the worth or value.

Bit tenuous that! Obviously both are linked. The point being the pound was seen as being in the safe club with the dollar, yen, swiss franc and now its not.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Bit tenuous that! Obviously both are linked. The point being the pound was seen as being in the safe club with the dollar, yen, swiss franc and now its not.

No it's not. He is talking about the quality of it as an an investment vehicle. He is not talking about the strength of our currency. If he was, and he can be on either side of that trade, so if he thought the £ was weak (to support what you are thinking), he'd say 'we're short the £ at the moment'......he's not saying any of that.

As for what you are saying, a weak currency might dovetail with economic policy as we look to 'go it alone' in the next 5-10years. It's not hard to imagine how it might help.

 

[SpurMeUp]

No it's not. He is talking about the quality of it as an an investment vehicle. He is not talking about the strength of our currency. If he was, and he can be on either side of that trade, so if he thought the £ was weak (to support what you are thinking), he'd say 'we're short the £ at the moment'......he's not saying any of that.

As for what you are saying, a weak currency might dovetail with economic policy as we look to 'go it alone' in the next 5-10years. It's not hard to imagine how it might help.

With respect that is nonsense. I don't believe everyone has the same view as this Bank of America analyst, but to try and interpret what he is saying as anything but sterling being less strong is deluded. Here is what he said:

movements in the currency since the June 2016 Brexit vote have become “neurotic at best, unfathomable at worst”

“We believe sterling is evolving into a currency that resembles the underlying reality of the British economy: small and shrinking with a growing dual deficit problem”

“The pound increasingly resembles the more liquid emerging market currencies rather than a core G10 currency,”

If this analysis believed the pound was strong, would he be saying it looks more like an emerging market currency rather than a G10 currency?

I actually don't think this view is shared by all, and the pound is still respected as a relatively secure currecy. But it does give some idea of how Brexit has affected global perceptions of sterling.

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

With respect that is nonsense. I don't believe everyone has the same view as this Bank of America analyst, but to try and interpret what he is saying as anything but sterling being less strong is deluded. Here is what he said:

movements in the currency since the June 2016 Brexit vote have become “neurotic at best, unfathomable at worst”

“We believe sterling is evolving into a currency that resembles the underlying reality of the British economy: small and shrinking with a growing dual deficit problem”

“The pound increasingly resembles the more liquid emerging market currencies rather than a core G10 currency,”

If this analysis believed the pound was strong, would he be saying it looks more like an emerging market currency rather than a G10 currency?

I actually don't think this view is shared by all, and the pound is still respected as a relatively secure currecy. But it does give some idea of how Brexit has affected global perceptions of sterling.

Jeez....he's talking about the characteristics and behaviour of sterling that makes it unattractive as an investment. But hey, ive said that already, im not trying to interpret whether sterling is strong or weak....nor is he.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Jeez....he's talking about the characteristics and behaviour of sterling that makes it unattractive as an investment. But hey, ive said that already, im not trying to interpret whether sterling is strong or weak....nor is he.

Apart from you identifying it as unattractive (ie weaker than it was), there is the numeric 15-20% drop in value which is pretty clear.

 

[Grays_1890]

So Brexits been an official failure then? Can’t see how that can be determined when we are still working out the T&Cs and there is a global pandemic ongoing.

I wouldn’t break out the Brexit is a failure champagne you have been saving

 

[ricky2tricky4city]

Apart from you identifying it as unattractive (ie weaker than it was), there is the numeric 15-20% drop in value which is pretty clear.

Jeez jeez....... unattractive investment because of it behaviour/characteristics....eg volatility, illiquid etc.

If you wanted to find a finance note that supported what you were saying there is probably a load out there you should have chosen. No need to misread or misrepresent what HE or I am saying to provide such support.

FWIW...if you look at the chart someone posted above...the timeframe they talk of in the note June 2016 onwards, the sterling trading range has been quite small (between 1.08-1.19), so what is he on about? He is on about the micro level movements (minutes/hours) daily, being to 'wild, neurotic, unfathomable'..hence he's uncomfortable going near that with clients money.
Also the trend line you'd draw on that graph since June 2016 is a slightly upward slope. (Just an observation)

 

[SpurMeUp]

Neutral bank analyst advises investors sterling is no longer an elite safe currency. Brexit sympathiser rubbishes and tries to obfuscate. Strait out a Trump play book. Actually we’re told the ‘trend line’ is upward! Never mind the reality, keep believing [emoji106]




Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app