Grays_1890
Colin Calderwood
Not my theory, reported on news.
Singapore being pulled over the cole for treatment of migrant workers and the cases rising due to the conditions they live in and lack of help.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter markysimmo
- Start date
Not my theory, reported on news.
Singapore being pulled over the cole for treatment of migrant workers and the cases rising due to the conditions they live in and lack of help.
All we know is that those other methods cause a very short term reduction at a huge cost to both the economy and civil liberty. We know absolutely nothing about whether or not they're effective over the longer term.That's a spurious argument we're talking about the current curve, not future projections. We can only benchmark known reliable historical statistics not future predictions, and on that basis some approaches are demonstrably more effective than others. I thought you liked dat and facts?
So if the question you're asking is which method has a short term effect on deaths, loses huge amounts of civil liberty and possibly causes more damage in the medium to long term, the SK model is your answer.
SteveAWOL
Andy Thompson
Do the Swedes have that much better a healthcare system which can cope with a steeper curve than UK or is their general population just less prone to obesity / diabetes and the other comorbitites?
As they’ve also locked down their care homes to protect the elderly but otherwise appear to be doing rather well merely using social distancing rules.
SteveAWOL
Andy Thompson
Whilst their lower population density obviously helps, the Swedes do appear to have kept their curve manageable with relatively little cost to date.
ricky2tricky4city
Tom Huddlestone
ricky2tricky4city
Tom Huddlestone
What he doesn't like is people who call the game before it is over.That's a spurious argument we're talking about the current curve, not future projections. We can only benchmark known reliable historical statistics not future predictions, and on that basis some approaches are demonstrably more effective than others. I thought you liked dat and facts?
The hindsight goggles can't be applied yet.
Crab.C.Nesbitt
Gheorge Popescu
Lockdown was intended to manage the curve so that the nhs doesn't get overwhelmed and avoid the subsequent likelihood that many more people would have died, which would also have had a huge impact on the economy.
Obviously lockdown is not a permanent solution, nor can the economy be put on hold but none has the definitive answer just yet
Crab.C.Nesbitt
Gheorge Popescu
Who's calling the game before it is over? There is a clear undeniable set of evidence that demonstrates that those countries who acted hard and fast were much more effective in managing the initial phase of this pandemic.
that is all I was saying.
Crab.C.Nesbitt
Gheorge Popescu
Not about hiding it's about managing the country's capacity to cope with the impact of the pandemic.
Then what? Gradual lifting of the lockdown in a controlled manner (look at what works and doesn't in other counties such as Germany that are ahead of the urge, take those lessons learned and implnement thrm.
Even when lockdown is lifted things are going to have to be markedly different from the norm particularly in big cities. E.g. Staggered shifts for all types of work, not just normal shift based work.
This would be required to avoid overcrowding on public transport and enable some for,of social distancing on transport and in offices. Some companies are planning on Using staggered shifts to ensure that there offices are never more than 40% occupied at any one time, at least unto June 2021 in order to enable social distancing in the office
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Crab.C.Nesbitt
Gheorge Popescu
I've seen those articles now, and the way that migrant workers are being treated is disgraceful.
However it doesn't disprove that the Singaporean model works, all it does is demonstrate that they weren't applying that model consistently to all members of their community
Crab.C.Nesbitt
Gheorge Popescu
Sweden is not an international business hub like the London, New York or Milan. Therefore they won't have had the same level of infection due to less infected people visiting or travelling through Sweden. Also it is much less densely populated therefore easier to restrict interaction without total lockdown
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Grays_1890
Colin Calderwood
Ahhh ok, that’s ok then
Crab.C.Nesbitt
Gheorge Popescu
Nice bit of selective quoting there, I didn't say that's ok, what I said is it doesn't prove that their approach doesn't work just became they didn't extend that approach to cover migrant workers. Obviously migrant workers should be treated the same as Singaporean residents and I started off my reply with that statement but you cut that bit out to make some kind of point....not sure what it was tbh?
And Sweden is proof the the curve happens anyway and that alarmist papers about exponential growth were probably just alarmist nonsense.
Crab.C.Nesbitt
Gheorge Popescu
In that case how do you explain the difference between germany and the U.K./Spain/France/Italy?
Clearly there is a difference, and that key difference is that Germany acted early and decisively.
Sweden could well be an anonomaly since
a) it's far less densely populated and
b) it's far less of an international transport/business hub therefore fewer travellers returning home or passing through with infection.
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I'm sure they're better in terms of obesity - it would be hard to be worse without being American.
Looking at the OECD data they're fairly similar in terms of their demographic.
There's been a lot of interesting discussion about population density and what happens outside of those more densely populated parts. The Stockholm/Sweden ratio is similar to the London/UK one. I suspect their lower trajectory is at least partly to do with the low density outside of Stockholm.
Germany has a privately operated healthcare system which will always be more flexible and competent than a system like ours which is nearly 100 years out of date. They also have a larger proportion of their population living in rural areas and far more than Sweden do.
Sweden has a significantly higher proportion of its population living in urban areas than both the UK and Germany.
ricky2tricky4city
Tom Huddlestone
Just as nothing yet disproves any other approach that you've labelled 'bullshi.t'.
What is a distinct possibility, if the only way out of this is for people to be infected, (and we don't want to hide for 18 months) then the shallow long drawn out curve of deaths from hiding is the same for infections. So those countries will be behind in the race for immunity.
Plus if you're predisposed to the virus it's still going to find you in July, August etc even if you swerved it in April...it's just waiting for you to open the door.
Having restrictions for the NHS to cope is 100% right if it enables everyone, who needs it, to receive the best care possible.
ricky2tricky4city
Tom Huddlestone
I think tha bloke in @scaramanga Swedish video stated that Swedish care homes are individually alot smaller than Norway, Denmark etc
Kandi1977
Terry Dyson
That's not a realistic comparison. GB have 6 times the population in half the area, so much easier to spread the virus in GB, because of the density of the population.
They also have a huge lag in reported deaths, and do not test nearly as many as other countries. Sweden in reality have massively fudged up, and they are starting to realise it now, as there is popping up infection clusters all over the country now, and numbers will rise again.