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Politics, politics, politics

He's clearly losing the bullsh1t war - just look at the polls.

I don't know about that; he's become the party leader after saying how much he values 'green issues' and the environment; remember those stunts in 2005 where he talked about his love for huskies and cycling (with his limo a few metres behind)?
Also remember his first day at work as PM when he got himself pictured and filmed "walking to work in Parliament square like any other Dave"?
The best one has to be all these years claiming he's been a lifelong fan of Aston Villa...lol!

Terrible at spin and gonads? The above says otherwise...
 
I don't know about that; he's become the party leader after saying how much he values 'green issues' and the environment; remember those stunts in 2005 where he talked about his love for huskies and cycling (with his limo a few metres behind)?
Also remember his first day at work as PM when he got himself pictured and filmed "walking to work in Parliament square like any other Dave"?
The best one has to be all these years claiming he's been a lifelong fan of Aston Villa...lol!

Terrible at spin and cobblers? The above says otherwise...
The fact that you're so easily able to point it out as spin just proves how bad he is at it. That goes for the whole party at the moment except for Boris, who has still managed to cultivate this image of lovable, harmless buffoon.
 
That depends entirely on what incentives are offered.

The state can sort out long-term health issues and cut a massive chunk of cost by simply refusing state aid to smokers and fatties (after an initial bit of help in improving lifestyles).

Who can offer those incentives other than the state? Who else other than the state will know what incentives to offer and what the end goal should be? Apart from specific operations, does the non-medical average joe know what's best for him medically in the short and long-term and what is best for various sections of the population short and long-term?

In terms of refusing state aid to 'smokers and fatties' that can only work if you ban or greatly increase the cost of smoking or consuming bad food. Oh and perhaps ban advertising of such products. But then we are getting into nanny-state terroritory aren't we? Unless we regulate much MUCH more rigidly the food and drinks industry then the plan for 'refusing state aid to smokers and fatties' is simply a non-starter.

I'm not talking about offering contracts from the state to large companies - that's still far too state-run to get anywhere near efficient. The incentive for improvement is that people will choose where they are treated (not this false choice crap they're calling Choose & Book) so hospitals will need to be better than others.

How will people choose where they treated? Do they base their decision on a relative/friend who was treated at said place - and said the doctors were lovely? Do they base it on who has the best advertising? Do they base it on what the local council suggests? Do they base it on who their local MP recommends?

They'll do it because they're getting paid to - for the same reason anyone currently does work for the government.

I used to do a lot of government work when I was consulting (IT consultants are a very good way of ditching surplus budget) and whilst it was the most tedious work I did (systems were always out of date, staff were at best incompetent). Now whilst it was a long way from my favoured work, the government always pays, it pays quickly and you don't need credit insurance for the credit you offer them - that's a big deal when you're talking about large figures.

There are some services that will be VERY expensive to provide, many will simply not be profitable unless there are block 30 years, near monopoly contracts over large geographical areas. The cost of the remodelling of some of these services might not even make it worthwhile. Easy to do for relatively simple and monotonous hip replacements, diabetes checks, cholesterol checks etc. A totally different thing when you are talking about treating people who are born with diabetes, HIV, trying to offer "health MOTs" to those who if caught early enough would hopefully be given the right interventions to stop them developing the long terms conditions that are really costly to treat when found at later stages (e.g. COPD, hyptertension etc).

Your IT consultancy experience with Government doesn't surprise me. However the world of IT procurement is totally different to the world of healthcare provision. Both have issues and can/should be reviewed, but leaving the healthcare side simply to the whims of the corporate world without some Government intervention to level the 'playing field' as it were and make sure whole regions do not lose out simply because of the health profile of that area is more complex/problematic would lead to disaster imo. The Government are the only arbiter imo that can balance acute interventions that are needed here and now and also long-term public health needs.

Corporate involvement can happen at certain junctures (as is happening presently) but in the case of healthcare there has to be an independent Government overseeing the long-term way the system can run so it is not at the whims of what is profitable now (or not profitable now).
 
Well, this could be the difference between Labour being the largest party or not. And that then opens up an arrangement with the Lib Dems. So any SNP coming back to Labour could make a lot of difference. Now whether that is likely is another story (it seems the SNP vote only grows stronger at the moment).

All of the seat prediction models build in the shy-Tory/swing-back effect, except for the YouGov now-cast model. IIRC that one is the only one that shows Labour ahead on projected seats. (see here: https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre )
If the Conservatives get very close to 290 then Labour won't be the largest party. If they don't then you're right - the difference is whether Cameron gets to force Milibland to team up with Sturgeon for a vote of no confidence.
 
The fact that you're so easily able to point it out as spin just proves how bad he is at it. That goes for the whole party at the moment except for Boris, who has still managed to cultivate this image of lovable, harmless buffoon.

You mean like how bad you would say that Ed Milliband wouldn't make a good PM because his spin is so bad?
 
1900 is a pretty decent sample size - what do you expect, the whole country to take part?

As for your other question it's both - most of my friends are Conservatives and they think they're better than most others. Some of them have every reason to do so.

I should point out that I don't seek Conservatives as friends, but all of my friends have jobs and the vast majority are educated to a high level. Add that to the fact that I live in Chichester and it becomes fairly tough to find someone who fits that profile who isn't a Conservative.

No but I would think any educated person would not use a poll by 1900 people as evidence to prove/disprove a point.

I am sure you are well educated and live in the right areas though. As for having jobs it does not mean they have to be one eyed does it? and having money does no mean they should have no compassion and think they are better then anyone else. If they do you have some very selfish friends and live in a bubble. ( imo)

I will point out again I have no love for either red or blue, its just I am not blinded by the " I am all right jack " that some seem to be.
 
You mean like how bad you would say that Ed Milliband wouldn't make a good PM because his spin is so bad?
Sorry, but I don't understand what you've said there.

I think Milibland would make a bad PM because he knows nothing about business - he once asked a director why he pays his shareholders dividends! He thinks price caps will lower rent and energy prices. I think Milibland is very good at spin - that doesn't mean he's got a hope of getting things right if he ends up in power.
 
No but I would think any educated person would not use a poll by 1900 people as evidence to prove/disprove a point.

I am sure you are well educated and live in the right areas though. As for having jobs it does not mean they have to be one eyed does it? and having money does no mean they should have no compassion and think they are better then anyone else. If they do you have some very selfish friends and live in a bubble. ( imo)

I will point out again I have no love for either red or blue, its just I am not blinded by the " I am all right jack " that some seem to be.
Hold on a minute - you made the claim about how most people felt. I just backed up an alternative with independent data - if you have something more representative I'd be interested to see it.

Not sure why you equate voting Conservative with a lack of compassion. Most supporters of all parties want (or at least understand the need) to provide for those who cannot do so themselves. Conservatives simply understand that trying to tax a country into prosperity is like standing in a bucket and trying to lift oneself up by the handle.
 
Well, this could be the difference between Labour being the largest party or not. And that then opens up an arrangement with the Lib Dems. So any SNP coming back to Labour could make a lot of difference. Now whether that is likely is another story (it seems the SNP vote only grows stronger at the moment).

All of the seat prediction models build in the shy-Tory/swing-back effect, except for the YouGov now-cast model. IIRC that one is the only one that shows Labour ahead on projected seats. (see here: https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre )
Really? Where did you get that from ?

Whenever I hear anyone on Radio 4 (not saying they're right, just what I hear) talk about the polls they always add the effect on after.
 
Sorry, but I don't understand what you've said there.

I think Milibland would make a bad PM because he knows nothing about business - he once asked a director why he pays his shareholders dividends! He thinks price caps will lower rent and energy prices. I think Milibland is very good at spin - that doesn't mean he's got a hope of getting things right if he ends up in power.


My point is that you are also easily able to point out certain things about "Red Ed" that you see as spin as well. So one could then use your model and say that "Red Ed" is also so bad at spin that you are able to point out certain things as being spin.

Perhaps basically whoever someone dislikes will always be able to point out what they see as 'spin'.

You hate the Labour party/the left so you will obviously be able point out anything/everything that you see as spin from "Red Ed"/The Labour Party/the Left.
My point is that it is a joke to suggest that Cameron is also not good at spin - because he clearly is. Sadly most of our politics is dictated by spin nowadays.
 
Who can offer those incentives other than the state? Who else other than the state will know what incentives to offer and what the end goal should be? Apart from specific operations, does the non-medical average joe know what's best for him medically in the short and long-term and what is best for various sections of the population short and long-term?
Obviously the state needs to offer the incentives as the state (or more accurately us) foots the bill. There are a lot of models around for longer-term pay-offs but one of the better ones is a drip payment to the company providing the healthcare dependent on the patient not recurring over time - much like private sector re-offender payments.

In terms of refusing state aid to 'smokers and fatties' that can only work if you ban or greatly increase the cost of smoking or consuming bad food. Oh and perhaps ban advertising of such products. But then we are getting into nanny-state terroritory aren't we? Unless we regulate much MUCH more rigidly the food and drinks industry then the plan for 'refusing state aid to smokers and fatties' is simply a non-starter.
Why? Why is it the state's role to get involved?

Everyone knows smoking is bad, everyone knows eating poorly and a lack of exercise is bad. People should be allowed to make their own mistakes otherwise you lose the incentive to not get things wrong.

How will people choose where they treated? Do they base their decision on a relative/friend who was treated at said place - and said the doctors were lovely? Do they base it on who has the best advertising? Do they base it on what the local council suggests? Do they base it on who their local MP recommends?
Have hospitals publish success rates, waiting times, etc. - we're a good part of the way there already.

There are some services that will be VERY expensive to provide, many will simply not be profitable unless there are block 30 years, near monopoly contracts over large geographical areas. The cost of the remodelling of some of these services might not even make it worthwhile.

The more it costs to provide, the more the state pays for the provision. The private sector, without a bottomless pit of money, will always find more efficient ways to provide these services.

Easy to do for relatively simple and monotonous hip replacements, diabetes checks, cholesterol checks etc. A totally different thing when you are talking about treating people who are born with diabetes, HIV, trying to offer "health MOTs" to those who if caught early enough would hopefully be given the right interventions to stop them developing the long terms conditions that are really costly to treat when found at later stages (e.g. COPD, hyptertension etc).

The state funded/privately provided model is perfect for what you've described. What better incentive to get people in to have health checkups than the possibility of being able to provide some expensive healthcare afterwards?

Your IT consultancy experience with Government doesn't surprise me. However the world of IT procurement is totally different to the world of healthcare provision. Both have issues and can/should be reviewed, but leaving the healthcare side simply to the whims of the corporate world without some Government intervention to level the 'playing field' as it were and make sure whole regions do not lose out simply because of the health profile of that area is more complex/problematic would lead to disaster imo. The Government are the only arbiter imo that can balance acute interventions that are needed here and now and also long-term public health needs.

Corporate involvement can happen at certain junctures (as is happening presently) but in the case of healthcare there has to be an independent Government overseeing the long-term way the system can run so it is not at the whims of what is profitable now (or not profitable now).
Of all the people I would trust to run anything (even something far more simple than healthcare) the government (and especially their army of civil servants) are pretty close to the bottom of that list.

I don't buy the suggestion that regions would struggle - I think they'd fare even better. Think about it - if you wanted to make money out of healthcare, what better than a Methadone clinic in Liverpool or a Gastric band centre in Saudi Sportswashing Machine?
 
My point is that you are also easily able to point out certain things about "Red Ed" that you see as spin as well. So one could then use your model and say that "Red Ed" is also so bad at spin that you are able to point out certain things as being spin.

Perhaps basically whoever someone dislikes will always be able to point out what they see as 'spin'.

You hate the Labour party/the left so you will obviously be able point out anything/everything that you see as spin from "Red Ed"/The Labour Party/the Left.
My point is that it is a joke to suggest that Cameron is also not good at spin - because he clearly is. Sadly most of our politics is dictated by spin nowadays.
Agree completely with the bolded parts, may have to call it a day on the rest!
 
Really? Where did you get that from ?

Whenever I hear anyone on Radio 4 (not saying they're right, just what I hear) talk about the polls they always add the effect on after.

I remember reading it on UKPollingReport, when they were discussing the prediction models and their differences. IIRC they all weight for the incumbency/shy-Tory effect to differing degrees, but the now-cast by yougov doesn't. The guy who runs the UKPollingReport site works for yougov.

*edit* I'm not talking about the individual polls for voting intention, I'm talking about the models that are used to produce the predicted number of seats won for each party.
 
I remember reading it on UKPollingReport, when they were discussing the prediction models and their differences. IIRC they all weight for the incumbency/shy-Tory effect to differing degrees, but the now-cast by yougov doesn't. The guy who runs the UKPollingReport site works for yougov.

*edit* I'm not talking about the individual polls for voting intention, I'm talking about the models that are used to produce the predicted number of seats won for each party.

The problem any of these projections have is they have no historical data for the new SNP rise. They could be way off. I'm sure there is now a shy Labour factor in Scotland.
 
The problem any of these projections have is they have no historical data for the new SNP rise. They could be way off. I'm sure there is now a shy Labour factor in Scotland.

True, that is certainly possible. I'm looking forward to see it all play out. I'd love to see Clegg lose his seat (I think he'll probably keep it, but I live in hope).
 
Obviously the state needs to offer the incentives as the state (or more accurately us) foots the bill. There are a lot of models around for longer-term pay-offs but one of the better ones is a drip payment to the company providing the healthcare dependent on the patient not recurring over time - much like private sector re-offender payments.

Drip payments based on a patient 'not recurring' will simply lead to patients being refused by said company the treatment as they would see it as not worth the reduced payment received. A patient that has, say Asthma and is prone to emergency admissions due to their asthma, would likely be charged much higher for their treatment - even when likely their illness might be nothing to do with their lifestyle and everything to do wit how much their parents smoked in their presence growing up as children or the smoggy air that plagues their environment. This patient being penalised for 'recurring' health issues seems totally unfair. This is also acknowledging that the company will likely have little that they can do to effect this person's risk of having their life continually blighted by their asthma (apart from advising them to not smoke etc, which they might already adhere to anyway).


Why? Why is it the state's role to get involved?

Everyone knows smoking is bad, everyone knows eating poorly and a lack of exercise is bad. People should be allowed to make their own mistakes otherwise you lose the incentive to not get things wrong.

Everyone knows this on the whole, true. But is society in general geared towards eating better food for example? Is it not cheaper to eat crap food often as well, not to mention the bombardment of advertising of said crap food when compared to food that would be better? If the landscape was much more geared to making it a much more hardened and not just passive choice to eat poorly and smoke (e.g. much more expensive crap food, much more expensive cigarettes, much less daytime advertising of crap food like McDonalds etc) then yes totally people perhaps should be allowed to make those mistakes as you say. But that is not the reality, and we don't chip and monitor everyone's individual intake of these things so we cannot charge differently for treatments related to these on a case-by-case basis.

Also how far would you go with this model? Do you refuse to treat people who develop hepatitis C in their 50s because they took what they thought were mild drugs back in their teens? Do you refuse free HIV treatment to the unlucky sod who had one moment of unprotected sex with his then girlfriend who happened to have one fling with a airline pilot two years previously? To me the "you made the mistake, now you pay extra for the treatment" only works if there are only direct single risks associated with the ailment in question. And we'd likely need everybody chipped to have details of all that they do as well!


Have hospitals publish success rates, waiting times, etc. - we're a good part of the way there already.

Hospitals already do as you say. Or rather the GOVERNMENT do. Hospitals left to their own devices would only publish what makes them look great. Again, it all comes down to a government overseer/arbiter...


The more it costs to provide, the more the state pays for the provision. The private sector, without a bottomless pit of money, will always find more efficient ways to provide these services.

The private sector can find efficient ways to provide services. That can also involve lies, deceit and outright fraud (see Enron, rigging of Libor rates and the 2007/2008 credit crunch bubble etc).
The healthcare sector is one of the few areas that should be steered clear of such rampant profiteering as it would literally become issues of life and death in many cases. You could easily see a situation like, say, over 65s not offered certain operations because they are considered 'too expensive' and 'being done on people likely not to gain a profit within 5 years' or something like that; which might go against medical evidence but keep overheads lower and profits higher.
Also bear in mind that re-investing profits into service improvement for a company based in Nevada who are providing healthcare in Egham may be much more random with remote shareholders to pay dividends to. Surpluses built up by Government-run services are much more likely to be re-invested in long-term service improvements.


The state funded/privately provided model is perfect for what you've described. What better incentive to get people in to have health checkups than the possibility of being able to provide some expensive healthcare afterwards?

The incentive is on the company; but is the incentive on the patient though to pay for these things? Are these necessities or luxuries?

Of all the people I would trust to run anything (even something far more simple than healthcare) the government (and especially their army of civil servants) are pretty close to the bottom of that list.

I don't buy the suggestion that regions would struggle - I think they'd fare even better. Think about it - if you wanted to make money out of healthcare, what better than a Methadone clinic in Liverpool or a Gastric band centre in Saudi Sportswashing Machine?

I'll leave things there...:D
 
Not long now before Labour get back in and start doing what they do best and fudging everything up. Well done whoever votes them well done!
 
Whomever is in government, I hope they look at alternatives to schooling in establishments. The current situation doesn't favour flexi-schooling and considers this as 'authorised absence' which the schools do not favour (due to the numbers they need to present). I understand the Scandinavians start schooling at a later age? Totally agree with this too. Home-schooling also needs to be supported a lot better.

I know it's difficult with parents working but if you are fortunate to have the flexibility to school your children, then why not?

Of course you can go down the private route (and they'd agree to flexi-schooling) but it is at a premium.
 
Re: European Elections, UKIP Tops British Polls

I know the average intelligence level of a UKIP supporter is low, but seriously they get both a name and a picture - if they cannot work out who they are voting for because of one different word ( not even a similar word!! ) then tough ****.

http://order-order.com/2014/05/26/exc-farage-calls-for-electoral-commission-to-be-abolished/
Oh ....only certain types of moneysbarries out of the evolved species from the ape branch called homo sapiens
are intelligent...and don't tell me monkeybarrie...your one of em?
 
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