Morgan Schneiderlin

[DHSF]

On average in a normal season I watch maybe 4-8 games a week (from all sorts of leagues). I also know other people who watch a similar number, and trust their opinions implicitly. Further, when there are UEFA competition matches, I watch as much as I can. I also watch highlights of other leagues, and the Premier League. I try to see 2 or 3 games per international break, too.

I can't fathom how you can't fathom that a lot of people watch a lot of football.

I meant focussing on one player. You can watch eight games a week but what I meant was have you seen Schneiderlin all season? say 20 games? I make judgmenets too on players generally though it would be a hunch more than game after game. Thats why I would trust Poch's judgement over anyone and if he wants him we should back him.

I actually made a remark based on the initial comment that people can make a judgement on one or two games.

 

[AberYid]

I meant focussing on one player. You can watch eight games a week but what I meant was have you seen Schneiderlin all season? say 20 games? I make judgmenets too on players generally though it would be a hunch more than game after game. Thats why I would trust Poch's judgement over anyone and if he wants him we should back him.

I actually made a remark based on the initial comment that people can make a judgement on one or two games.

I've seen Morgan Schneiderlin in person 3 or 4 times, I've gone to a lot of Cardiff City and Swansea City games over the last 6 seasons, and a few of those have been against Southampton.

On top of that I've seen him play every time he's played against Spurs.

So, I haven't seen him 20 games a season, but I've seen him probably as often as a half decent scout would have. Over a long period, albeit.

 

[Cochise]

So it does look like they are putting the ball in his court. I reckon the Soton fans don't trust the press release anyway.

 

[Jordinho]

So it does look like they are putting the ball in his court. I reckon the Soton fans don't trust the press release anyway.

Nope, they're just waiting for 'Fat Kat' to take the money and **** off.

 

[Cotswold]

Greg Stobart tweeted "Schneiderlin ready to submit transfer request to force Tottenham move, broken promises are behind Twitter outburst".

Isn't Stobart the guy everyone says is half-trustworthy?

He is seen as a spurs ITK journo, but bear in mind that was a tweet linking to a Web article he'd written. Tweets like that are intended to get us to go on and click the link and read the article and then probably 'follow' him. I think he's more ITK than most but much of it is still speculation.

 

[Andyandy]

On average in a normal season I watch maybe 4-8 games a week (from all sorts of leagues). I also know other people who watch a similar number, and trust their opinions implicitly. Further, when there are UEFA competition matches, I watch as much as I can. I also watch highlights of other leagues, and the Premier League. I try to see 2 or 3 games per international break, too.

I can't fathom how you can't fathom that a lot of people watch a lot of football.

This guy must know his stuff, I bet that he even knows people who work part time at JJB sports!

 

[braineclipse]

He is seen as a spurs ITK journo, but bear in mind that was a tweet linking to a Web article he'd written. Tweets like that are intended to get us to go on and click the link and read the article and then probably 'follow' him. I think he's more ITK than most but much of it is still speculation.

Well he's a journalist and as far as I know his main employer is goal.com, what is he supposed to do? Should he post his information a forum? Should he just tweet it and not write an article about it?

One of his strengths as a journalist seems to be that he gets information before other journalists, particularly about Spurs. Of course he's going to put that information into an article, as is pretty standard these days he then tweets something related to or a short summary of that article.

What has made him a trusted source is that when he does this it rarely seems to be bull****, he doesn't seem like someone that just copy pastes circulating rumours or makes stuff up to generate clicks and traffic.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Well he's a journalist and as far as I know his main employer is goal.com, what is he supposed to do? Should he post his information a forum? Should he just tweet it and not write an article about it?

One of his strengths as a journalist seems to be that he gets information before other journalists, particularly about Spurs. Of course he's going to put that information into an article, as is pretty standard these days he then tweets something related to or a short summary of that article.

What has made him a trusted source is that when he does this it rarely seems to be bull****, he doesn't seem like someone that just copy pastes circulating rumours or makes stuff up to generate clicks and traffic.

And he's mates with Josh Levy

 

[braineclipse]

This guy must know his stuff, I bet that he even knows people who work part time at JJB sports!

What prompted that? He's been asked and he's answered a question.

You're the one saying that Schneiderlin was Southampton's 5th or 6th best player, would you mind answering how much you've seen of them and him this season to form that opinion?

 

[AberYid]

For what it's worth, I'm a JD Sports kinda guy.

 

[Andyandy]

Or you're missing that point that we have no need for Lambert or Lallana. Lovren clearly wanted to go to Liverpool. And we didn't want Calum Chambers.

You've also missed the point that Arsenal, Liverpool and whoever else don't need someone in Schneiderlin's position.

You've also missed the point that all the other players have been "passed by the top teams for a long time".

You've also missed the point that this guy won't be a squad player.

You've also missed the point that this guy is a top class first team player.

So let's build on this and make the huge extrapolation that you are right!

Let's try and quantify what you mean here and do a very simple ROI analysis. They kind every business does when making a large purchase.

a) How much is he going to cost from a (now) cash rich club?
b) How much is he worth in your opinion, i.e. if we signed the equivalent player from outside the PL?
c) How much better is he than what we have already got i.e. Sandro, Bentleb, Pauliniho, Dembele, Eboue, Chadli etc. (est. 15-25m range) is he?
d) What is his potential sell on price (i.e. a sell on to Madrid in 2-3 years)?
e) What is the probability that he will a) make 10 appearances and sold at a loss, b) be average and play up to 2-3 seasons for us and moved on at current value, c) is sold to Madrid at a profit?

 

[Spursman]

Seems like every other club that has taken players off Southampton had it easy. Maybe if we tried for the deal earlier it would have been easy for us to.

 

[Yiddo]

Seems like every other club that has taken players off Southampton had it easy. Maybe if we tried for the deal earlier it would have been easy for us to.

Maybe we don't want to pay their silly prices. Don't wanna be taken for mugs like Liverpoo.

 

[Andyandy]

What prompted that? He's been asked and he's answered a question.

You're the one saying that Schneiderlin was Southampton's 5th or 6th best player, would you mind answering how much you've seen of them and him this season to form that opinion?

Everybody is entitled to an opinion but the weight of that opinion to affect your own is skewed on the basis of their own knowledge on the subject. Watching lots of football specifically only demonstrates how much time you have on your hands. The question is do you really understand the game and its subtle interactions? I have worked as a professional coach and scouted players at different levels but you are just guessing when it comes to how they react when putting them in new teams, squads and systems.

Based on what I have seen from Schneiderlin he doesn't offer too much potential to upgrade our bloated squad. He also does not have the same potential of many of the other players that have left saints (other than Lambert). Nevertheless nobody know's how he will react to a big club and less game time, usually it is too much, however sometimes it offers a confidence boost and is a catalyst for their career.

The question is what is the price? Less than £10m, OK...he will enjoy the Europa league. More than £15m we will regret it.

 

[Robbo]

Maybe we don't want to pay their silly prices. Don't wanna be taken for mugs like Liverpoo.

Or maybe they are massively ****ed off with us because we snatched their manager, which basically kickstarted the exodus of players?

 

[braineclipse]

So let's build on this and make the huge extrapolation that you are right!

Let's try and quantify what you mean here and do a very simple ROI analysis. They kind every business does when making a large purchase.

a) How much is he going to cost from a (now) cash rich club?
b) How much is he worth in your opinion, i.e. if we signed the equivalent player from outside the PL?
c) How much better is he than what we have already got i.e. Sandro, Bentleb, Pauliniho, Dembele, Eboue, Chadli etc. (est. 15-25m range) is he?
d) What is his potential sell on price (i.e. a sell on to Madrid in 2-3 years)?
e) What is the probability that he will a) make 10 appearances and sold at a loss, b) be average and play up to 2-3 seasons for us and moved on at current value, c) is sold to Madrid at a profit?

Usually I don't pick on people for spelling errors, but writing Eboue instead of Capoue is pretty horrendous...

All of those will be estimates based on limited information. What I do know is that one of the people in the world best positioned to estimate those things accurately is our current manager and he seems to rate him very highly. Much like Southampton fans that have watched him week in week out for years.

Your ROI analysis lacks some vital points. For e) you ignore that he could be better than average and stay for more than 2-3 seasons without being sold. You bring up how much better he is than players ranging from Sandro to Chadli, very different player types without mentioning which kind of player type Schneiderlin is, one of the key arguments for signing him. You bring up equivalent players from outside the PL without mentioning any names and without including what I think is a lower risk of failure for Schneiderlin due to his PL experience and experience working under Poch.

Seems like every other club that has taken players off Southampton had it easy. Maybe if we tried for the deal earlier it would have been easy for us to.

£33m for Shaw, £27m for Lallana, £22m for Lovren, £17m for Chambers and £4m for Lambert (all prices from transfermarkt) is well described as "having it easy"?

He was at the World Cup. Reports have been fairly convincing that he's also been chased by Arsenal. It seems that we've been able to convince him to want to join us instead of them and are now working with Southampton. Unsurprisingly there have been premature reports in the media, but these things often take time.

 

[braineclipse]

Everybody is entitled to an opinion but the weight of that opinion to affect your own is skewed on the basis of their own knowledge on the subject. Watching lots of football specifically only demonstrates how much time you have on your hands. The question is do you really understand the game and its subtle interactions? I have worked as a professional coach and scouted players at different levels but you are just guessing when it comes to how they react when putting them in new teams, squads and systems.

Based on what I have seen from Schneiderlin he doesn't offer too much potential to upgrade our bloated squad. He also does not have the same potential of many of the other players that have left saints (other than Lambert). Nevertheless nobody know's how he will react to a big club and less game time, usually it is too much, however sometimes it offers a confidence boost and is a catalyst for their career.

The question is what is the price? Less than £10m, OK...he will enjoy the Europa league. More than £15m we will regret it.

But surely how much someone's watched a player is relevant and in a conversation about how much football he watched Aber gave an answer. What's the problem with that?

I appreciate you sharing your informed opinion, but I still think the question of what you base that opinion on is valid.

I don't quite get the "new teams, squads and systems" point. If there's any players we should expect to fit in well it should surely be players that is rated by and succeeded under our new manager in a club in the same league as ours? But as you're saying I'm just guessing, what is it about our team, squad and system that doesn't suit Schneiderlin exactly?

 

[Andyandy]

Usually I don't pick on people for spelling errors, but writing Eboue instead of Capoue is pretty horrendous...

All of those will be estimates based on limited information. What I do know is that one of the people in the world best positioned to estimate those things accurately is our current manager and he seems to rate him very highly. Much like Southampton fans that have watched him week in week out for years.

Your ROI analysis lacks some vital points. For e) you ignore that he could be better than average and stay for more than 2-3 seasons without being sold. You bring up how much better he is than players ranging from Sandro to Chadli, very different player types without mentioning which kind of player type Schneiderlin is, one of the key arguments for signing him. You bring up equivalent players from outside the PL without mentioning any names and without including what I think is a lower risk of failure for Schneiderlin due to his PL experience and experience working under Poch.



£33m for Shaw, £27m for Lallana, £22m for Lovren, £17m for Chambers and £4m for Lambert (all prices from transfermarkt) is well described as "having it easy"?

He was at the World Cup. Reports have been fairly convincing that he's also been chased by Arsenal. It seems that we've been able to convince him to want to join us instead of them and are now working with Southampton. Unsurprisingly there have been premature reports in the media, but these things often take time.

Sure it is difficult to do and yes it has been simplified.

Why not try based on your limited information?

 

[camspur]

So let's build on this and make the huge extrapolation that you are right!

Let's try and quantify what you mean here and do a very simple ROI analysis. They kind every business does when making a large purchase.

a) How much is he going to cost from a (now) cash rich club?
b) How much is he worth in your opinion, i.e. if we signed the equivalent player from outside the PL?
c) How much better is he than what we have already got i.e. Sandro, Bentleb, Pauliniho, Dembele, Eboue, Chadli etc. (est. 15-25m range) is he?
d) What is his potential sell on price (i.e. a sell on to Madrid in 2-3 years)?
e) What is the probability that he will a) make 10 appearances and sold at a loss, b) be average and play up to 2-3 seasons for us and moved on at current value, c) is sold to Madrid at a profit?

a. Valued at £27m by Soton more likely to go for 18 to 20m

b. IMHO no player is worth anything and the transfer system is screwed beyond repair, others will value him around 15 - 18m

c. I see Schneiderlin as sitting in front of Sandro and working the ball so can't compare with any of them other than Paulinho and Dembele as the others are a different type of player. Is he better than either of them yes for sure.

d. Why do we need to worry about sell on prices? A players value to the club is more than a sell on fee, it's all about what he brings to the team and how that improves their performance. Higher league position, Cup runs and getting in toi CL football can bring in far more than a £5m profit on selling a player. If I buy a piece of equipment its all about output not residual value (to put it in business terms)

e. 50-50 on all of them, he either will or won't.

 

[braineclipse]

Sure it is difficult to do and yes it has been simplified.

Why not try based on your limited information?

I rarely mind answering direct questions as I'm an opinionated bastard, although I'm much more likely to if the one I'm conversing with shows a willingness to answer questions too. So before I go down your list of 5 questions I will reiterate the first question about Schneiderlin I've asked you: You're the one saying that Schneiderlin was Southampton's 5th or 6th best player, would you mind answering how much you've seen of them and him this season to form that opinion?

a) This is pure speculation, but somewhere above £15m and below £30m with a fee somewhere around Lovren's looking quite likely to me.

b) As I've already said the equivalent player from outside the PL isn't a great comparison for me. I've long been saying in several threads that I think we should focus on players with PL experience this summer after signing 7 players without PL experience last season as we look to integrate them and the rest of our team under a new manager. Given this I certainly wouldn't be unhappy if we signed him for £20m and would be happy with £25m too, £30m and above is my pain threshold.

c) I rate Bentaleb higher than most, but he's clearly still young and inexperienced and I'm not convinced he's ready to be our first choice throughout a long season. For Sandro, Paulinho, Dembele and Capoue it might very well be that Schneiderlin isn't objectively "better" than the best two out of those four. But he's a different type of player and a player type we've been missing for some time now. Based on what I've seen (my limited information) I expect him to be a significantly better passer, pass and move player and deep playmaker type than any of those 4. I don't consider Chadli an option for that role at this point. Having a balanced squad is at least as important as the objective quality of one player compared to another of a different type. This is where Sherwood was right about our midfield being "a bit much of a muchness".

d) Probably not much more than £30m as he's a non goalscoring central midfielder and that's in the ballpark of what they've been willing to pay for Alonso and Modric for example. At 24 (soon 25) he's unlikely to rise significantly in value.

e) a) The chances of him only getting 10 appearances are very small unless he picks up a string of serious injuries, knock on wood and all that. b) This seems to me clearly possible, but not the most likely outcome, but this depends a lot on your definition of average. c) Fairly unlikely. d) The chances of him being a success and staying with the club for more than 2-3 seasons is significant.