Tim Sherwood…gone \o/

[Rossi22]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I'm sorry but when you can't get into the opponent's box and you leave a titanic-sized hole behind your defence then you're going to get these crazy stats where we scored from a seriously low % of attempts and conceded an equally ludicrous high %. That wasn't bad luck.

 

[Trotter]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

That's an interesting interpretation to say the least.

Can you let me know where you've got the ranges from?

The last couple of paragraphs show quite the misunderstanding of what PDO is/means. PDO used in this sense is showing how much a team is outperforming its shots/saves - statistically this is mostly made up of 'luck'/random events.

As for the regression of PDO in the PL, you should read the article I linked to. The author links to it himself, as well as explaining who is over and underperforming. In case you can't be arsed, here's the link:
http://jameswgrayson.wordpress.com/2011/04/15/pdo-part-ii/

No, I would say the last 2 paragraphs show more your and to a lesser extent the authors misunderstanding of PDO, and its importance within football.
He caveats it himself, as he understands its limitations.

You suggest the only reason the best teams get a better PDO is by luck/random events. Whereas I am suggesting that the better teams in football have a better PDO because they have better players. i.e. their defenders are restricting their opponents to lower percentage shots, and the goalkeeper saves more, and their attackers create better chances and subsequently score more as a %, This is not luck, you get what you pay for.
How else is it that the top 6 teams bar us, and since Sherwood took over from AVB, all the top 7 teams have the only positive (above 100) PDO.

But no, if you want to try to explain this anomaly away with luck, rather than that we are now creating better chances, and because we are creating better chances, converting more, then go ahead with your agenda.

And in that article he presents no stats at all. Last season the top teams had the greatest PDO, but I suppose this was just luck again.
PDO in the way it has been presented here, in no way takes account the quality of the chances created, without that factored in, it basically just shows how teams are performing in 2 by themselves meaningless statistics in comparison to the rest of the League.
The only way luck will be the reason for adverse PDO's is if all teams were of exact equal strength, and created exactly the same quality of chances and had exactly the same quality of chances created against them.

 

[Kingdawson]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

That's sort of what the stats show, you've just interpreted them wrong.

The PDO shows that we were unlucky not to score/save more, we won the games we did because we were better than the opposition. Take away the bad 'luck' and we'd have won even more.

the bad luck when we got a dodgy pen against Hull? ah the one where we got a dodgy pen vs Swansea? the one where Lloris didn't get sent off after 5 minutes vs Cardiff for handball?

 

[SpurMeUp]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

You know when delusional people make up any old krap to justify their own pre-judgements....?

I enjoy contrary views, it makes things far more interesting. But seriously! Some of the shyte justifying AVB and belittling Sherwood is on a fine line - between creative genius and delusional condensing bolocks. Some of the drivel in this thread is so wack its entertaining!

 

[the dza]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I'm sorry but when you can't get into the opponent's box and you leave a titanic-sized hole behind your defence then you're going to get these crazy stats where we scored from a seriously low % of attempts and conceded an equally ludicrous high %. That wasn't bad luck.

Well put.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

But we clearly weren't. I can name the games on one hand where that was the case, the rest of the time it was dour football where we were bailed(not Baled, that was the previous season) out thanks to fortunate penalties, own goals, centre backs hitting 30 yard half volleys into the bottom corner, stoppage time winners. What we were doing under AVB was completely unsustainable, a team with a 15:21 goals record should've been well in the bottom half, it was GOOD luck that we weren't, not bad. AVB's gameplan was to squeeze the life out of the game, if he could win it 50.01 to 49.99(I'm not talking about possession here) then he was thrilled, it was awful, the cracks were getting bigger and bigger and the walls well and truly came crashing down at home to Liverpool. I'm glad that chancer is gone.

You'll have to forgive me then for believing in fact posted by a neutral over your opinion.

If your line of reasoning is going to continue along the lines of "This is my opinion, your facts are clearly wrong" then I'm not sure what else I can say. It's like telling a religious person about dinosaurs and being told the devil put them there.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

No, I would say the last 2 paragraphs show more your and to a lesser extent the authors misunderstanding of PDO, and its importance within football.
He caveats it himself, as he understands its limitations.

You suggest the only reason the best teams get a better PDO is by luck/random events. Whereas I am suggesting that the better teams in football have a better PDO because they have better players. i.e. their defenders are restricting their opponents to lower percentage shots, and the goalkeeper saves more, and their attackers create better chances and subsequently score more as a %, This is not luck, you get what you pay for.
How else is it that the top 6 teams bar us, and since Sherwood took over from AVB, all the top 7 teams have the only positive (above 100) PDO.

But no, if you want to try to explain this anomaly away with luck, rather than that we are now creating better chances, and because we are creating better chances, converting more, then go ahead with your agenda.

And in that article he presents no stats at all. Last season the top teams had the greatest PDO, but I suppose this was just luck again.
PDO in the way it has been presented here, in no way takes account the quality of the chances created, without that factored in, it basically just shows how teams are performing in 2 by themselves meaningless statistics in comparison to the rest of the League.
The only way luck will be the reason for adverse PDO's is if all teams were of exact equal strength, and created exactly the same quality of chances and had exactly the same quality of chances created against them.

Like I asked in the last post, can you please post the details/sources of these data?

I'd also be interested in why you think PDO regressing to mean doesn't happen.

 

[Rossi22]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

You'll have to forgive me then for believing in fact posted by a neutral over your opinion.

If your line of reasoning is going to continue along the lines of "This is my opinion, your facts are clearly wrong" then I'm not sure what else I can say. It's like telling a religious person about dinosaurs and being told the devil put them there.

You can't lecture me on stubborn prejudice considering your clear for all to see Sherwood/"NBD"-hate. I have eyes, I watch the matches and make a conclusion from what I see whilst you make a conclusion based on your hate for Tim some farfetched statistical theory. I countered the stats with reasoning as to why they resulted in what they did:

I'm sorry but when you can't get into the opponent's box and you leave a titanic-sized hole behind your defence then you're going to get these crazy stats where we scored from a seriously low % of attempts and conceded an equally ludicrous high %. That wasn't bad luck.

But again, I guess you're just going to claim I'm making all of that up and shout PDO at me over and over again.

 

[africanspurs]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

You know when delusional people make up any old krap to justify their own pre-judgements....?

I enjoy contrary views, it makes things far more interesting. But seriously! Some of the shyte justifying AVB and belittling Sherwood is on a fine line - between creative genius and delusional condensing bolocks. Some of the drivel in this thread is so wack its entertaining!

=D>

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

You can't lecture me on stubborn prejudice considering your clear for all to see Sherwood/"NBD"-hate. I have eyes, I watch the matches and make a conclusion from what I see whilst you make a conclusion based on your hate for Tim some farfetched statistical theory. I countered the stats with reasoning as to why they resulted in what they did:



But again, I guess you're just going to claim I'm making all of that up and shout PDO at me over and over again.

I honestly don't know how else to phrase it. These stats aren't made up, they're real and they're facts. If we're in the realm of 5<4 or 2+2=pi then we're really going to struggle to get any kind of debate going.

 

[africanspurs]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Like I asked in the last post, can you please post the details/sources of these data?

I'd also be interested in why you think PDO regressing to mean doesn't happen.

same here, by its definitiion from what i read , the way they calculate it is not really disputable when you put in those conditions and parameters

trotters however might be assuming other variables and / or factors that would explain certain things that the article takes for granted maybe?

 

[Kingdawson]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

=D>

It's amazing really.

Did you know that it was us that was 'unlucky' earlier this season?:ross:



We literally got every referee decision going our way...it was verging on ridiculous.

 

[africanspurs]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

i woujld say though

the GD with AVB i think was more a symptom of the unrest in the dressing room....its not quantifiable IMO , unless you take some kind of market research data and ask the players to take a 10 point scale or something about how they feel.....

11 goals to 0 agains pool and city.....take that away and that brings the goal difference much neater....but still shows our inability to penetrate the opposition

its so weird how the premier league is this season

 

[Rossi22]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I haven't said the stats are made up. I'm saying that the conclusion is wrong, we weren't unlucky at all under AVB, I've already given several valid reasons as to why that was the case. You and your PDO theory on the otherhand thinks the form under AVB was just some crazy variance and sooner or later our shot:goal % would've rocketed and our shot:goal conceded % would've plummeted so that over a season it would've been more reflective of a team of our quality. It wouldn't have, it most likely would've gotten worse.

 

[africanspurs]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

It's amazing really.

Did you know that it was us that was 'unlucky' earlier this season?:ross:



We literally got every referee decision going our way...it was verging on ridiculous.

yeah i dont agree with that. maybe we were in some instances but we got a lot of the run of the green as well....i also think that there is an unseen force that drives luck and fortue in the direction of entities

oddly enough with the way we played under AVB you wouldnt think we shoudl be getting nuch luck....but we did. and i dont think we deserved it at times

 

[africanspurs]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I haven't said the stats are made up. I'm saying that the conclusion is wrong, we weren't unlucky at all under AVB, I've already given several valid reasons as to why that was the case. You and your PDO theory on the otherhand thinks the form under AVB was just some crazy variance and sooner or later our shot:goal % would've rocketed and our shot:goal conceded % would've plummeted so that over a season it would've been more reflective of a team of our quality. It wouldn't have, it most likely would've gotten worse.

especially i there was unrest in the dressing room

 

[screen nayim]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I'm sorry but when you can't get into the opponent's box and you leave a titanic-sized hole behind your defence then you're going to get these crazy stats where we scored from a seriously low % of attempts and conceded an equally ludicrous high %. That wasn't bad luck.

Indeed. And bringing back Ade wasn't down to good luck either.

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

I haven't said the stats are made up. I'm saying that the conclusion is wrong, we weren't unlucky at all under AVB, I've already given several valid reasons as to why that was the case. You and your PDO theory on the otherhand thinks the form under AVB was just some crazy variance and sooner or later our shot:goal % would've rocketed and our shot:goal conceded % would've plummeted so that over a season it would've been more reflective of a team of our quality. It wouldn't have, it most likely would've gotten worse.

Then it would have been the only PDO in the history of it being calculated (to my knowledge) to progress away from mean.

Seriously, that's like finding someone unaffected by gravity or an n > 2 where a^n+b^n=c^n

 

[scaramanga]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

especially i there was unrest in the dressing room

I'm pretty sure that's taken care of in the article. The PDO is essentially the variance in the outcome of two teams doing the same thing (over a few matches). I wouldn't expect a team with poor morale to be doing the same as a confident team.

 

[Rossi22]

Re: Tim Sherwood - Head Coach

Indeed. And bringing back Ade wasn't down to good luck either.

No, I think you'll find that AVB was just unlucky that he didn't pick him, AVB can't be blamed for not picking Ade, it was just bad luck. Same goes for leaving Christian Eriksen on the bench, just terrible luck that and don't get more started on leaving our poacher striker isolated up front with only inverted shot-happy wide players anywhere close to him .... man, AVB just couldn't catch a break, I'm sure things would've turned around quickly though ... about as quickly as Michael Dawson in a high line amirite?