Politics, politics, politics

[DTA]

As I already said, businesses hate change. Will BMW, Mercedes, Audi allow their government to make their cars uncompetitively expensive? What about Airbus?

They simply won't allow their governments to start damaging their business models over petty squabbling. Equally, they won't want to pay more for UK products than they already do - the idea is madness.

It's all just threats and bluster. When it comes down to it, tarrifs where they don't already exist don't make sense for anyone.

@milo , I know any deal would need assent from the majority, but when have Germany ever not got their way in the EU? If they want it, it will happen. Especially as the countries most likely to object need a strong, trading EU in order to keep being bailed out financially.

If the uk votes leave, would it not be in the interests of the 'European project' to make sure we go through a tough time? Not sure if German car makers or french famers/energy companies views would way up favourably against other countries seeing the uk negotiating a great deal and prospering thus encouraging others to want to do the same.

We may be a net importer but the Eu, even without us would be the largest trading block in the world, and therefore would be able to absorb any tariffs we impose on them much more successfully then we would visa versa.

 

[scaramanga]

If the uk votes leave, would it not be in the interests of the 'European project' to make sure we go through a tough time? Not sure if German car makers or french famers/energy companies views would way up favourably against other countries seeing the uk negotiating a great deal and prospering thus encouraging others to want to do the same.

We may be a net importer but the Eu, even without us would be the largest trading block in the world, and therefore would be able to absorb any tariffs we impose on them much more successfully then we would visa versa.

If we can't agree tariff rates then we default to the WTO ones I listed above. That's worst case scenario.

 

[K.D.D.D.D.Soc]

I think that's it. No one really thought UK Leave was a realistic possibility. Hence the lack of remain campaigning. But suddenly it could happen so the polls say, and late in the day the case is being made to remain. But the problem is, its so complex - you have to have some idea of economics, geopolitics etc - to make an informed choice. So most people just chose on immigration or emotion, 'I like being British'. This is my oversimplification, but in essence why should people know about all this boring cobblers? Isn't that what politicians are for? To make these informed complex economic and political decisions for people? If so we should follow our PM.

Wasn't that one of the arguments for not giving women the vote?

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Wasn't that one of the arguments for not giving women the vote?

Well they had a point, and as for them driving don't even get me started on that.

 

[DTA]

If we can't agree tariff rates then we default to the WTO ones I listed above. That's worst case scenario.

Is it the worst case scenario? If we leave and do well, i can see that as the catalyst for the break up of the eu as a whole. And they would see it at as at least as a real and present danger for the 'European project'. Just as the britexiters have referenced Norway and Switzerland (wrongly in my view as they have none of the benefits of membership but all of the costs) those wanting their countries to leave the eu would then reference the uk. Meaning there would be a real danger of others leaving. It therefore makes sense for them to make it as hard as possible for us outside the eu, how they would do this im really not sure, i would like to hear others views. But what i am sure about is the fact that it would very much be in the EUs interest (longterm) for the uk to struggle outside the eu.

 

[scaramanga]

Is it the worst case scenario? If we leave and do well, i can see that as the catalyst for the break up of the eu as a whole. And they would see it at as at least as a real and present danger for the 'European project'. Just as the britexiters have referenced Norway and Switzerland (wrongly in my view as they have none of the benefits of membership but all of the costs) those wanting their countries to leave the eu would then reference the uk. Meaning there would be a real danger of others leaving. It therefore makes sense for them to make it as hard as possible for us outside the eu, how they would do this im really not sure, i would like to hear others views. But what i am sure about is the fact that it would very much be in the EUs interest (longterm) for the uk to struggle outside the eu.

They cannot impose heavier tariffs than those from the WTO as we are both members - not unless they leave the WTO.

 

[DTA]

They cannot impose heavier tariffs than those from the WTO as we are both members - not unless they leave the WTO.

So what would their response be in your opinion? Do you agree they would try to make it hard for us for the sake of their own self intrests?

 

[scaramanga]

So what would their response be in your opinion? Do you agree they would try to make it hard for us for the sake of their own self intrests?

They don't really have much of a choice - they can't make it more difficult for us than they do the rest of the world and those tariffs are reducing every year. That's the ongoing process of globalisation - protectionism is dying with or without the EU.

I'm sure they'd like to make it hard for us to stop the rot, but I think that even countries dim enough to have joined the eurozone can see that if blackmail is all that's keeping them together, they're better off out.

 

[Richie]

So are you really telling me that we can have free trade, be part of the EU single market effectively, without any cost? While all other countries who access the single market have to open their boarders to the free movement of people, and have to pay into the EU coffers. Why oh why would they give us the best deal ever, while they are still burdened with paying for their access to free trade? Will Milo reply before me

Free trade is the tide that raises all boats. Europe will benefit from tariff free trade with a Brexit UK just as much as we will. Look at the kind of trade deals that the EU is exploring with Canada, Singapore etc... We all know free trade makes everyone wealthier, the EU won't cut themselves off from the 5th largest economy in the world.

The political union we have with the EU is not required for free trade to happen. Anyone wanting to trade in the EU will have to follow their laws, just the way they would with USA, China etc...

Post Brexit I expect tariff free trade in almost all areas, visa free travel throughout the UK but without the automatic right to settle. Brits settled in Europe will be allowed to stay and EU citizens here will be allowed to stay

I'm with Scara, if their only way to keep the Union together is to make everyone poorer by imposing tariffs and using fear to keep from other countries to leave.l, that's not a Union I want to be in

 

[SpurMeUp]

Free trade is the tide that raises all boats. Europe will benefit from tariff free trade with a Brexit UK just as much as we will. Look at the kind of trade deals that the EU is exploring with Canada, Singapore etc... We all know free trade makes everyone wealthier, the EU won't cut themselves off from the 5th largest economy in the world.

The political union we have with the EU is not required for free trade to happen. Anyone wanting to trade in the EU will have to follow their laws, just the way they would with USA, China etc...

Post Brexit I expect tariff free trade in almost all areas, visa free travel throughout the UK but without the automatic right to settle. Brits settled in Europe will be allowed to stay and EU citizens here will be allowed to stay

I'm with Scara, if their only way to keep the Union together is to make everyone poorer by imposing tariffs and using fear to keep from other countries to leave.l, that's not a Union I want to be in

Quick question, why is the EU 'exploring' this deal? The single market has been around since 1993 and Canada has been independent from us since 1867!

National trade agreements take time to put in place. The EU one with Canada is more or less done, but its taken years. Canada is a relatively small consumer economy (of lower importance to the EU than larger countries). Our economy is the 5th or 9th largest depending on how you measure it. But our consumers, people who can buy things from other countries, while affluent, are relatively small just like Canada. The UK is well down on the list in this sense. China, US, the EU Single Market, even Russia, Brazil etc these are the countries that have 'buying power' with lots of consumers. Us and Canada are insignificant by comparison and during trade negotiations, we have to give more to get a trade deal in place. We simply have less consumers than larger countries who will leverage their buying power - as they are more important to us than we are to them.

How are you so sure the EU will allow non-tariff trade with the UK? They don't with anyone else outside the single market, unless you're like Norway (in the EU by proxy). Why would the EU give the UK all of the benefits of the single market without any burdens? It doesn't stack up. The trade negotiations with the EU would be acrimonious and take time put in place. The EU won't be coming to us, begging for trade (as you hint), it will be the other way around. 44% of our exports go to them. They will hold all the cards, and we will have to offer something to them to get a deal - and what we will have to offer will be less advantageous to us than now, in trade terms. If the UK can have it all without free-movement or paying in burden, why should Germany, France etc pay for their access? You wouldn't allow Germany this liberty would you, if the UK remained in the EU? But somehow we will get this, and all EU countries will agree to it? Dreamworld.

If we leave, while the mess is sorted, the UK economy will shrink imo. The housing market will be the first to falter. Then longer term, international companies that trade with the EU, will slowly move from the periphery into the core single market. Investment will also slow in the UK, with less cash coming in and less growth. On the plus side....I don't know? We are sovereign.

 

[scaramanga]

Quick question, why is the EU 'exploring' this deal? The single market has been around since 1993 and Canada has been independent from us since 1867!

National trade deal take a time to put in place. The EU one with Canada is more or less done, but its taken years. Canada is a relatively small consumer economy (of lower importance to the EU than larger countries). Our economy is the 5th or 9th largest depending on how you measure it. But our consumers, people who can buy things from other countries, while affluent, are relatively small just like Canada. The UK is well down on the list in this sense. China, US, the EU Single Market, even Russia, Brazil etc these are the countries that have 'buying power' with lots of consumers. Us and Canada are insignificant by comparison and during trade negotiations, we have to give more to get a trade deal in place. We simply have less consumers than larger countries who will leverage their buying power - as they are more important to us, than we are to them.

How are you so sure the EU will allow non-tariff trade with the UK? They don't with anyone else outside the single market, unless you're like Norway (in the EU by proxy). Why would the EU give the UK all of the benefits of the single market without any burdens? It doesn't stack up. The trade negotiations with the EU would be acrimonious and take time put in place. The EU won't be coming to us, begging for trade (as you hint), it will be the other way around. 44% of our exports go to them. They will hold all the cards, and we will have to offer something to them to get a deal - and what we will have to offer will be less advantageous to us than now, in trade terms. If the UK can have it all without free-movement or paying in burden, why should Germany, France etc? You wouldn't allow Germany this liberty would you, if the UK remained? But somehow we will get this, and all EU countries will agree to it? Dreamworld.

If we leave, while the mess is sorted, the UK economy will shrink imo. The housing market will be the first to falter. Then longer term, international companies that trade with the EU, will slowly move from the periphery into the core single market. Investment will also slow in the UK, with less cash coming in and less growth. On the plus side....I don't know? We are sovereign.

Under WTO rules, the very worst deal the EU can give us is the standard WTO tariff which, as I outlined above, is cheaper than subsidising French farmers.

I wouldn't even bother negotiating tariffs as they are low and getting lower every year.

 

[SpurMeUp]

As I already said, businesses hate change. Will BMW, Mercedes, Audi allow their government to make their cars uncompetitively expensive? What about Airbus?

They simply won't allow their governments to start damaging their business models over petty squabbling. Equally, they won't want to pay more for UK products than they already do - the idea is madness.

It's all just threats and bluster. When it comes down to it, tarrifs where they don't already exist don't make sense for anyone.

@milo , I know any deal would need assent from the majority, but when have Germany ever not got their way in the EU? If they want it, it will happen. Especially as the countries most likely to object need a strong, trading EU in order to keep being bailed out financially.

Yes that is the principle of free trade. All you are outlining is why free trade is good - for all parties more or less. But the EU doesn't have free trade with all countries. Why doesn't it have free trade with the US or north Africa etc if its so easy? It would be beneficial to these Germany and French companies too.

Let me just get this clear, you are arguing for free trade, whilst arguing to leave the single market and EU, whilst actually intending to vote remain?

 

[SpurMeUp]

Under WTO rules, the very worst deal the EU can give us is the standard WTO tariff which, as I outlined above, is cheaper than subsidising French farmers.

I wouldn't even bother negotiating tariffs as they are low and getting lower every year.

Our WTO position itself is not defined. We are represented in the WTO via Europe. Step one, is establish UK WTO representation. Then the standard rules, which you seem to think work so well, would not help us. Why do countries make trade agreements if the WTO ones are so bonza?

You mentioned farmers. North African farmers are exceptional. Growing amazing produce in the deserts with year round sun, and ways to ensure water is ample. Moroccan fresh fruit and veg, like tomatoes, are of better quality (sweeter, bigger etc) than north European equivalents. Their labour costs (agriculture is labour intensive) are also very small. Great product produced at low cost. Super! Does much of it get into the EU? No. Its taxed by EU trade tariffs. The WTO standards do fuk all for these countries. That is why they want to join the single market.

We would be able to buy Moroccan tomatoes outside the EU, but our tomato growers wouldn't be happy. And the reason the EU common agricultural policy is in place is to protect nation food supplies (a legacy of the world wars, where countries didn't have their own means to produce their own food).

 

[scaramanga]

Yes that is the principle of free trade. All you are outlining is why free trade is good - for all more or less. But the EU doesn't have free trade with all countries. Why doesn't it have free trade with the US or north Africa etc? It would be beneficial to these companies.

Let me just get this clear, you are arguing for free trade, whilst arguing to leave the single market and EU, whilst actually intending to vote remain?

I'm voting to remain because I'm fairly happy financially and wouldn't gain much from leaving, if anything. I'm arguing against the EU because, apart from the free trade, I disagree with everything about it on principle - selfish, I know.

I would prefer free trade and I think we could negotiate a position pretty close to that, but the worst we could do is better than we have.

 

[scaramanga]

Our WTO position itself is not defined. We are represented in the WTO via Europe. Step one, is establish UK WTO representation. Then the standard rules, which you seem to think work so well, would not help us. Why do countries make trade agreements if the WTO ones are so bonza?

Because they are trading from a position of 0 so any tariff is worse, whereas we are trading from a position of - £10B+-3 so we can accept a tarrif and still be better off.

The UK has dual membership of the WTO, individually and as a part the EU so we would remain a member even if we left.

You mentioned farmers. North African farmers are exceptional. Growing amazing produce in the deserts with year round sun, and ways to ensure water is ample. Moroccan fresh fruit and veg, like tomatoes, are of better quality (sweeter, bigger etc) than north European equivalents. Their labour costs (agriculture is labour intensive) are also very small. Great product produced at low cost. Super! Does much of it get into the EU? No. Its taxed by EU trade tariffs. The WTO standards do fuk all for these countries. That is why they want to join the single market.

We would be able to buy Moroccan tomatoes outside the EU, but our tomato growers wouldn't be happy. And the reason the EU common agricultural policy is in place is to protect nation food supplies (a legacy of the world wars, where countries didn't have their own means to produce their own food).

You're right, we should be buying the best product at the best price. If our farmers can't compete then they shouldn't be in business.

 

[SpurMeUp]

@scaramanga Maybe. But if we did have a complete free market for food we'd import cheap higher quality food. Then if a geo-political event occurred that disrupted supply, we wouldn't have any UK farmers left to feed us! A war, political change, disaster etc. can leave a country who imports all its food, in serious trouble. Which is why there was rationing during the WWII, and for literally years after the war.

Yes the CAP needs addressing, but we also need to protect national food production.

 

[P.D.]

All governments in Europe are answerable to their electorate, if you ignore voters concerns then you get penalised for it. It's absolutely right to have the referendum and I dont think anyone disagrees saying it's not, if the polls are this close then it's important for people to have an opportunity to vote on it.

In terms of trade the above also applies, if germany decides to impose tariffs and persuades the EU thats the way to go and their trade with the UK suffers then they will be penalised for it. Germany have a trade surplus with us, they export more cars here (820,000 per year) than to any other country. The industry employs hundreds of thousands of people, they won't stand for it. Similarly with France and Wine etc.

It should also be easier for us to negotiate than Canada as we are already operating to EU rules, there will be less things to harmonise.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I'm voting to remain because I'm fairly happy financially and wouldn't gain much from leaving, if anything. I'm arguing against the EU because, apart from the free trade, I disagree with everything about it on principle - selfish, I know.

I would prefer free trade and I think we could negotiate a position pretty close to that, but the worst we could do is better than we have.

There really isn't a lot beyond trade that the EU does. This is a common misnomer, part of the 'they are taking our sovereignty' narrative. The truth is the EU is a customs union. Not my words, but from the FT:

https://next.ft.com/content/1688d0e4-15ef-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e

The EU is a customs union. Its members impose a common tariff on imports from non-member countries, while its members can trade freely with each other.

All members automatically benefit from any trade deals that the EU strikes with other countries but cannot set their own tariff levels.

To create a fair internal market, the EU is committed to a common regulatory framework to prevent one company — or country — from gaining a competitive advantage by working to looser regulations.

This has two elements: first, countries pledge to agree and implement common, harmonised rules. Second, on this understanding, they pledge to mutually recognise each other’s standards.

Companies that comply with domestic regulations can then sell their products and services throughout the EU.

Fundamentally, these interlocking policies are designed to both reduce trade costs and open up more markets.

I'm bowing out, off to Milan, so @milo the voice of reason, do your best to keep us in Incidentally, what are the implications for football transfers from the EU without free movement of people? Would Modric have signed for an Italian club instead of us for example?

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...rd-guthrie-why-i-now-back-the-leave-campaign/

he knows that Germany she is stirring and will soon rise again.....

 

[Gilzeantoscore]

Any one calling the result? I reckon leavers will be more motivated to turn out and vote, however, those who feel that the economy may crash and who normally adopt the Little Englander attitude will probably save the day for the stay vote. The Jo Cox tragedy will not help the leavers either. So, I say it will be a stay victory.