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Politics, politics, politics

Gilzeantoscore said:
Any one calling the result? I reckon leavers will be more motivated to turn out and vote, however, those who feel that the economy may crash and who normally adopt the Little Englander attitude will probably save the day for the stay vote. The Jo Cox tragedy will not help the leavers either. So, I say it will be a stay victory.
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60% remain - I've said that all along and I still think it.
 
Gilzeantoscore said:
Any one calling the result? I reckon leavers will be more motivated to turn out and vote, however, those who feel that the economy may crash and who normally adopt the Little Englander attitude will probably save the day for the stay vote. The Jo Cox tragedy will not help the leavers either. So, I say it will be a stay victory.
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I am going for stay by a nose, the young voters will help and the undecided will stick with what they know. I do wonder if the politicians will say if it is a close vote that they have learned the lesson from it and then go on and do absolutely nothing about it as they always do haha.
 
Danishfurniturelover said:
I am going for stay by a nose, the young voters will help and the undecided will stick with what they know. I do wonder if the politicians will say if it is a close vote that they have learned the lesson from it and then go on and do absolutely nothing about it as they always do haha.
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If it's very close Cameron will have to go pretty quickly.

Unless remain gets a massive win then Osborne's probably gone anyway. Talking down the economy and then threatening tax hikes - what kind of (non-Labour) Chancellor does that?
 
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Genuine question Milo, are you working for the remain side as one of their social media workers?

I wonder if some of the people being questioned in the poll are not wanting to just stick two fingers up to the MP's but also to the media, different types of people I have been speaking to now distrust the media as much as the people in Westminster.
 
Danishfurniturelover said:
Genuine question Milo, are you working for the remain side as one of their social media workers?
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Of course not. If I was, I would probably be doing it a little further from my home turf. I've never been a member of a political party or worked on a political campaign.
 
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Danishfurniturelover said:
fair enough
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I am an internationalist by nature and believe that we need international co-operation to deal with the big issues facing us now and that requires compromises. But if someone could present a coherent argument that it was in the country's best interest to leave the EU, I could be convinced. I have not heard anything close to that from the leave campaign during this campaign. The fact that they cannot even explain what a UK outside the EU would look like and what kind of relationship we would have makes them completely uncredible to me. If they cannot explain this then what would you be voting for if you backed leave?

In the face of more or less universal dour economic predictions of what would happen if we were to leave the EU, their response was to go for the man and not counter the argument, this suggests to me that they do not have an argument. That they have had to rely on the worst of base politics and scare mongering about fictitious threats from immigration to gain traction in the campaign has been shameful. I think that the Leave EU poster unveiling on Thursday was the lowest point in British politics that I can remember and I would hope that even those that support leave must have recoiled in horror at what Farage was doing.

I think that both campaigns have been appalling but when politicians starts trying to stir up fear of the other, you need to have a fudging good look at them because they are probably trying to distract you from their own fudge ups or what they want to do.
 
It seems very, very clear to me that we should stay in the EU. The Brexit arguments don't stack up for me.

The EU is not good in many ways, but it is better to be in than out.

I feel Germany would have to make Britain suffer, to prevent others leaving the EU.

Scaramanga explained how raising basic pay by a couple of quid would mean making people redundant in his business. If Britain leaves there would be huge uncertainty and I think there would be massive job losses, huge economic instability.

I am rich (relatively, in the top few %) and want to keep things as they are. Bremain.
 
Bullet said:
It seems very, very clear to me that we should stay in the EU. The Brexit arguments don't stack up for me.

The EU is not good in many ways, but it is better to be in than out.

I feel Germany would have to make Britain suffer, to prevent others leaving the EU.

Scaramanga explained how raising basic pay by a couple of quid would mean making people redundant in his business. If Britain leaves there would be huge uncertainty and I think there would be massive job losses, huge economic instability.

I am rich (relatively, in the top few %) and want to keep things as they are. Bremain.
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7 was the final count, with 2 zero hours lads on top.

That said, we could take most of them back if we removed the EU regs that have nothing to do with product conformity weighing on us.
 
Danishfurniturelover said:
Genuine question Milo, are you working for the remain side as one of their social media workers?

I wonder if some of the people being questioned in the poll are not wanting to just stick two fingers up to the MP's but also to the media, different types of people I have been speaking to now distrust the media as much as the people in Westminster.
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I did wonder the same thing about Milo to be honest after trawling through his links, however he has denied it so we will have to believe him.

But you would get the impression from what the stayers are saying is that all econmists say we would be worse off but that is just another scare story from the remain camp, you also get the impression from some that the only reason that those who want us out is all down to immigration which is at best foolish and at worst blind.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/28/leave-campaign-economists-for-brexit-report

http://www.economistsforbrexit.co.uk/

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-economists-idUKKCN0XP15O

They are more out there IF people want to find them but of course it has to be looked for with a open mind and from what i can see there are many who do not have that.
 
parklane1 said:
But you would get the impression from what the stayers are saying is that all econmists say we would be worse off but that is just another scare story from the remain camp, you also get the impression from some that the only reason that those who want us out is all down to immigration which is at best foolish and at worst blind.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/28/leave-campaign-economists-for-brexit-report

http://www.economistsforbrexit.co.uk/

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-economists-idUKKCN0XP15O

They are more out there IF people want to find them but of course it has to be looked for with a open mind and from what i can see there are many who do not have that.
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The vast majority of economists think that it would have a severely negative impact on the short term and our growth would be slower in the medium to long term

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron

You quote Prof Patrick Minford as an economist who supports Brexit and has produced more favourable forecasts. He certainly does. He also advocates quite an extreme economic model for us post Brexit with zero tariffs on all imports and that we would "mostly eliminate manufacturing" from our economy.

I do not think that you are in a position to criticise others for not having an open mind when you yourself dismiss anything that does fit with your opinion. I'd be up for having a decent debate on the issues over the next few days but you'd need to take on board other people's arguments and be prepared to accept that there are valid, fact based arguments against what you believe.
 
milo said:
The vast majority of economists think that it would have a severely negative impact on the short term and our growth would be slower in the medium to long term

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron

You quote Prof Patrick Minford as an economist who supports Brexit and has produced more favourable forecasts. He certainly does. He also advocates quite an extreme economic model for us post Brexit with zero tariffs on all imports and that we would "mostly eliminate manufacturing" from our economy.

I do not think that you are in a position to criticise others for not having an open mind when you yourself dismiss anything that does fit with your opinion. I'd be up for having a decent debate on the issues over the next few days but you'd need to take on board other people's arguments and be prepared to accept that there are valid, fact based arguments against what you believe.
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I have no problem with those that have any opinion even if its different then mine, but they are some who disregard any alternative view with

(That they have had to rely on the worst of base politics and scare mongering about fictitious threats from immigration to gain traction in the campaign has been shameful.)

And i have seen/heard a lot of that kind of comment over the last month or so, as for taking on other peoples arguments in this issue all i will say is that i have no problem with those that want to stay in ( and have said on here that i expect the vote to go that way) as for open minds well i was not the only one to think you were working for the stay campaign with your posts in this thread. So the open mind question has had some wondering about your stance.

I accept that there have been some valid points from the in campaign i just do not agree with all of them and unlike some will look for the opposite thoughts to the argument that they have put forward
 
SpurMeUp said:
There really isn't a lot beyond trade that the EU does. This is a common misnomer, part of the 'they are taking our sovereignty' narrative. The truth is the EU is a customs union. Not my words, but from the FT:

https://next.ft.com/content/1688d0e4-15ef-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e

The EU is a customs union. Its members impose a common tariff on imports from non-member countries, while its members can trade freely with each other.

All members automatically benefit from any trade deals that the EU strikes with other countries but cannot set their own tariff levels.

To create a fair internal market, the EU is committed to a common regulatory framework to prevent one company — or country — from gaining a competitive advantage by working to looser regulations.

This has two elements: first, countries pledge to agree and implement common, harmonised rules. Second, on this understanding, they pledge to mutually recognise each other’s standards.

Companies that comply with domestic regulations can then sell their products and services throughout the EU.

Fundamentally, these interlocking policies are designed to both reduce trade costs and open up more markets.

I'm bowing out, off to Milan, so @milo the voice of reason, do your best to keep us in :) Incidentally, what are the implications for football transfers from the EU without free movement of people? Would Modric have signed for an Italian club instead of us for example?
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The EU is a huge amount over the top of a customs union.

The biggest is obviously the complete lack of borders. Whilst I believe immigration is a good thing and that anyone should be free to work wherever they like, I don't think they should be able to move unchecked.

I also don't believe that the tax payer should shoulder the cost of any provision for those who have yet to pay in a significant proportion. I'm not an actuary and I have no plans to become one so I'd have to take advice, but a best guess would be something like 5 years of average salary payments or above. A far better solution would be that all healthcare and out of work costs are covered by the person's country of origin under that country's own rules. In work benefits would be provided by the country of residence but capped at the country of origin's rates.

Worst of all are the non product related regulations that have nothing to do with trade and everything to do with socialism. The Working Time Directive, Solvent Emissions Directive, etc - these are huge costs to businesses that have nothing to do with trade and everything to do with protectionism.
 
parklane1 said:
I have no problem with those that have any opinion even if its different then mine, but they are some who disregard any alternative view with

(That they have had to rely on the worst of base politics and scare mongering about fictitious threats from immigration to gain traction in the campaign has been shameful.)

And i have seen/heard a lot of that kind of comment over the last month or so, as for taking on other peoples arguments in this issue all i will say is that i have no problem with those that want to stay in ( and have said on here that i expect the vote to go that way) as for open minds well i was not the only one to think you were working for the stay campaign with your posts in this thread. So the open mind question has had some wondering about your stance.

I accept that there have been some valid points from the in campaign i just do not agree with all of them and unlike some will look for the opposite thoughts to the argument that they have put forward
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I am all in favour of seeking out alternative points of view - it's important in a vote of this magnitude to be aware of as many of the arguments as possible - or at the very least to be able to use counter arguments to validate one"s own beliefs.
Professor Minford quoted in the links above at least sets out how his economic forecast would be achieved. I personally find the route he sets out very alarming, but that is just my opinion. I have not heard any of the Leave campaign endorse the actions Minford sets out though (although I may well have missed something so happy for any links to that effect). IF further reducing manufacturing (already low), scrapping all import duties, AND removing all EU regulation around workers rights etc.is seen as truly viable (and for some it might be) then surely the Leave campaign should be highlighting those points so that they can be fully debated? As the these are very significant changes. If Leave does not endorse those options as viable solutions, then does that not in turn mean that Prof Minford's economic forecast has little viability - because a Leave supporting government would not impose those measures?

I am so borderline on this that I would love to find a solid Leave argument that has sufficient detail on what Leave would look like in practice, but until I do, I have to stick with Remain. Unfortunately I am on a postal vote so time is running out for me to be convinced otherwise.
 
Glenda's Legs said:
I am all in favour of seeking out alternative points of view - it's important in a vote of this magnitude to be aware of as many of the arguments as possible - or at the very least to be able to use counter arguments to validate one"s own beliefs.
Professor Minford quoted in the links above at least sets out how his economic forecast would be achieved. I personally find the route he sets out very alarming, but that is just my opinion. I have not heard any of the Leave campaign endorse the actions Minford sets out though (although I may well have missed something so happy for any links to that effect). IF further reducing manufacturing (already low), scrapping all import duties, AND removing all EU regulation around workers rights etc.is seen as truly viable (and for some it might be) then surely the Leave campaign should be highlighting those points so that they can be fully debated? As the these are very significant changes. If Leave does not endorse those options as viable solutions, then does that not in turn mean that Prof Minford's economic forecast has little viability - because a Leave supporting government would not impose those measures?

I am so borderline on this that I would love to find a solid Leave argument that has sufficient detail on what Leave would look like in practice, but until I do, I have to stick with Remain. Unfortunately I am on a postal vote so time is running out for me to be convinced otherwise.
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That is the problem though ( imo) both sides are not really giving any proof of what will happen. All we get is some econmists giving their opinion ( and lets be honest they have been wrong several times before) and the stay campaign highlighting it as a reason we should stay.

The truth is no one can say what will really happen ( its guesswork in most parts) what it will come down too is the individual choice of the voters. I know which way i lean and all the scare stories from both sides are to be discussed equally and ( imo) that is not happening, see my earlier post when i commented on those who think/believe that all those who want out are doing so just because they/we are against immigration. Which is gonad*s and is yet another scare comment.
 
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