Politics, politics, politics

[Glenda's Legs]

I agree its just more scare tactics.

I'm not sure this is any more scare tactics on the part of "remain" than the tactics by "leave" in respect of potential immigration from Turkey, Albania, etc.
I think each side is playing a worse-case-scenario card and relying on the emotions of the electorate.

I have really wavered in my views over the past few weeks. (I started out firmly "Remain"). Logic tells me to "Remain", the financial risks are too significant to ignore and take a hope-for-the-best attitude. Ideologically however, I do not feel comfortable with the whole principle of the EU - other than as a simple trade organisation, and I wonder if we are not better being out of it altogether, rather than being a peripheral member. I think I would rather we were not "in" at all, but now that we are, we are stuck with it and leaving does not feel like an attractive option.
I have bookmarked a whole load of articles to read or re-read over this weekend - some linked from this site (the level of debate and information-sharing on a football forum such as this puts a lot of mainstream media to shame). I take this vote incredibly seriously, far more than any general or local election I have voted in. My concern is that many people will make their decision based on emotional responses rather than any real level of research or questionning of the hyberbole in the media.

 

[K.D.D.D.D.Soc]

You only have to look at the value of the pound over the past few months as Brexit looms. The world values our currency far less out of the EU.

"The world"? or the smartarses who caused the last recession

 

[milo]

https://twitter.com/DavidAllenGreen/timelines/743530613580382208

 

[Baleforce]

https://twitter.com/DavidAllenGreen/timelines/743530613580382208

impossible to argue with any of that

 

[milo]

"The world"? or the smartarses who caused the last recession

We are seeing currency flight. International investors are moving their money out of the UK because they are worried about the economy tanking if we vote to leave the EU next week. The years of uncertainty that followed would not mean that it was over quickly. Before I am accused of project fear, this is not fear, it is what is happening now.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I'm not sure this is any more scare tactics on the part of "remain" than the tactics by "leave" in respect of potential immigration from Turkey, Albania, etc.
I think each side is playing a worse-case-scenario card and relying on the emotions of the electorate.

I have really wavered in my views over the past few weeks. (I started out firmly "Remain"). Logic tells me to "Remain", the financial risks are too significant to ignore and take a hope-for-the-best attitude. Ideologically however, I do not feel comfortable with the whole principle of the EU - other than as a simple trade organisation, and I wonder if we are not better being out of it altogether, rather than being a peripheral member. I think I would rather we were not "in" at all, but now that we are, we are stuck with it and leaving does not feel like an attractive option.
I have bookmarked a whole load of articles to read or re-read over this weekend - some linked from this site (the level of debate and information-sharing on a football forum such as this puts a lot of mainstream media to shame). I take this vote incredibly seriously, far more than any general or local election I have voted in. My concern is that many people will make their decision based on emotional responses rather than any real level of research or questionning of the hyberbole in the media.

44% of our exports go into the EU. We leave the EU, imports from the UK to the EU will likely become more expensive for them to buy. Therefore it is highly likely we will export less to the EU. Maybe we'll make up some of this with exports to Jamaica, Pakistan, India the old commonwealth? This is a misty eyed dream of history reversing, and Britain being a colonial power again. And it is a dream, not a feasible reality.

The leave campaign believe that without EU regulation, we will suddenly innovate. I don't know why. But they think this. Maybe they are correct; but investors primary concern when investing in new innovation is whether there is a market and is there stability. With 500m people in the EU, and with standards aligned (for example for medical innovations), we are attractive to invest in as we are.

But for me the scandalous thing about Leave promises, are that if people vote Leave, politicians will not be likely to deliver what the people voted for. Which begs the question, why go through all this? What do I mean? Take Norway, cited above as not doing too badly out of Europe. THIS IS THE BIGGEST LIE YOU ARE BEING TOLD.

• Norway pays in money into the EU, in exactly the same way we do.
• Norway has to allow the free movement of people in return for free trade, it does not control its borders anymore than we do now.
• Norway accesses the EU single market but in return abides by all the same trading rules that we do.
• The only exception, is that Norway can not influence new EU laws; they just get emailed over to their government to implement!

That is the price they pay for free trade. They get to say they are out the EU, but the only important difference to being in, is that they can't veto key changes as we can and they can't influence the day to day workings of the EU. They just suck it up.

80% of our Economy is service based. The MASSIVE problem for Leave is that if we are out the single market, we will not be able to freely sell our services to the EU. I don't know why the populous are not being informed of this more clearly, because it is key. 80% of the UKs economy is services. If we leave the single market, someone has to go to the EU, and try and find some way we can trade our services with them. 44% of our exports go to them! We have to get a deal, or else the UK economy is fuked. But the only way we can get such a deal to allow the open trade of our services, is to be like Norway!

 

[milo]

80% of our Economy is service based. The MASSIVE problem for Leave is that if we are out the single market, we will not be able to freely sell our services to the EU. I don't know the populous are not being informed of this more clearly, because its key. 80% of the UKs economy is services. If we leave the single market, someone has to go the EU, and try and find some way we can trade our services with them. 44% of our exports go to them! We have to get a deal, or else the UK economy is fuked. But the only way we can get such a deal to allow trade of our services, is to be like Norway!

One other point. No country outside of the EU has a passport to trade services, not even Norway or Switzerland.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Stats may be over quoted, 87.65% made up etc. But one struck me today: of all the top listed UK businesses, only 1% said they favoured leave. Maybe the BBC made this up. But if they didn't, why would these companies so emphatically want to remain?

It's so simple, because its likely we will all - businesses and people - be less affluent. Maybe we will be happier though, as we walk around feeling great sovereignty and independence.

 

[scaramanga]

I'm not sure this is any more scare tactics on the part of "remain" than the tactics by "leave" in respect of potential immigration from Turkey, Albania, etc.
I think each side is playing a worse-case-scenario card and relying on the emotions of the electorate.

I have really wavered in my views over the past few weeks. (I started out firmly "Remain"). Logic tells me to "Remain", the financial risks are too significant to ignore and take a hope-for-the-best attitude. Ideologically however, I do not feel comfortable with the whole principle of the EU - other than as a simple trade organisation, and I wonder if we are not better being out of it altogether, rather than being a peripheral member. I think I would rather we were not "in" at all, but now that we are, we are stuck with it and leaving does not feel like an attractive option.
I have bookmarked a whole load of articles to read or re-read over this weekend - some linked from this site (the level of debate and information-sharing on a football forum such as this puts a lot of mainstream media to shame). I take this vote incredibly seriously, far more than any general or local election I have voted in. My concern is that many people will make their decision based on emotional responses rather than any real level of research or questionning of the hyberbole in the media.

Your position and mine sound very similar on the matter.

I think had Cameron been sent back from Brussels with more than a "fudge you" I'd still be heavily on the remain side rather than just about as I am now.

Ultimately the fear tactics have worked a bit - I've got too much to lose and I can't see what massive changes leave will create in my life other than those of principle.

 

[scaramanga]

Stats may be over quoted, 87.65 made up etc. But one struck me today: of all the top listed UK businesses, only 1% said they favoured leave. Maybe the BBC made this up. But if they didn't, why would these companies so emphatically want to remain?

It's so simple, because its likely we will all - businesses and people - be less affluent. Maybe we will be happier though, as we walk around feeling great sovereignty and independence.

Businesses don't like change. The bigger the business the less they like change.

That doesn't mean change is bad.

 

[Baleforce]

I can't see that anything that concerns me can be fixed by leaving

I'll be voting with my wallet, as I always do, I have a family to feed

 

[scaramanga]

44% of our exports go into the EU. We leave the EU, imports from the UK to the EU will likely become more expensive for them to buy. Therefore it is highly likely we will export less to the EU. Maybe we'll make up some of this with exports to Jamaica, Pakistan, Indian the old commonwealth? This is a misty eyed dream of history reversing, and Britain being a colonial power again. And it is a dream, not a feasible reality.

The leave campaign believe that without EU regulation, we will suddenly innovate. I don't know why. But they think this. Maybe they are correct; but investors primary concern when investing in new innovation is whether there is a market and is there stability. With 500m in the EU, and with standards aligned (for example for medical innovations), we are attractive to invest in.

But for me the scandalous thing about Leave promises, are that if people vote Leave, politicians will not be likely to deliver what the people voted for. Which begs the question, why go through all this? What do I mean? Take Norway, cited above as not doing too badly out of Europe. THIS IS THE BIGGEST LIE YOU ARE BEING TOLD.

• Norway pays in money into the EU, in exactly the same way we do.
• Norway has to allow the free movement of people in return for free trade, it does not control its borders anymore than we do now.
• Norway accesses the EU single market but in return abides by all the same trading rules that we do.
• The only exception, is that Norway can not influence new EU laws; they just get emailed over to their government to implement!

That is the price they pay for free trade. They get to say they are out the EU, but the only important difference to being in, is that they can't veto key changes as we can and they can't influence the day to day workings of the EU. They just suck it up.

80% of our Economy is service based. The MASSIVE problem for Leave is that if we are out the single market, we will not be able to freely sell our services to the EU. I don't know why the populous are not being informed of this more clearly, because it is key. 80% of the UKs economy is services. If we leave the single market, someone has to go the EU, and try and find some way we can trade our services with them. 44% of our exports go to them! We have to get a deal, or else the UK economy is fuked. But the only way we can get such a deal to allow the open trade of our services, is to be like Norway!

There will be no tariffs on trade between us and the EU - I can guarantee that.

Why? Because we are a huge export market for both Germany and France. Neither of them will want reduced trade with us and what Germany and France want in the EU, they get.

The only logical reason for the EU to place trade tarrifs on the UK is to stop the threat of others leaving the EU. If the EU is a system that requires blackmail to keep everyone in, then we'd better all get out before it's too late.

 

[milo]

Your position and mine sound very similar on the matter.

I think had Cameron been sent back from Brussels with more than a "fudge you" I'd still be heavily on the remain side rather than just about as I am now.

Ultimately the fear tactics have worked a bit - I've got too much to lose and I can't see what massive changes leave will create in my life other than those of principle.

I think that the FT editorial today made a stronger case for staying than the remain campaign has over the last few months:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/3748166e-3151-11e6-ad39-3fee5ffe5b5b.html?siteedition=uk#axzz4BcsIZYDO

 

[SpurMeUp]

There will be no tariffs on trade between us and the EU - I can guarantee that.

Why? Because we are a huge export market for both Germany and France. Neither of them will want reduced trade with us and what Germany and France want in the EU, they get.

The only logical reason for the EU to place trade tarrifs on the UK is to stop the threat of others leaving the EU. If the EU is a system that requires blackmail to keep everyone in, then we'd better all get out before it's too late.

Only the Dutch and Germans export more to us than they buy. Out of what 27 states? Overall, we export more to the EU than we buy from the EU, is that correct? So there are some delusions of grandeur here from Leave. They are more important to us for exports, than we are to them.

Why would the EU change its laws for us? Why would they let us leave the EU, but allow us free trade!? That would be a better deal than any EU member state gets! Sure they'll agree to that! This is a notion that is as crazy as it is unrealistic.

 

[milo]

There will be no tariffs on trade between us and the EU - I can guarantee that.

Why? Because we are a huge export market for both Germany and France. Neither of them will want reduced trade with us and what Germany and France want in the EU, they get.

The only logical reason for the EU to place trade tarrifs on the UK is to stop the threat of others leaving the EU. If the EU is a system that requires blackmail to keep everyone in, then we'd better all get out before it's too late.

The only two countries that export more to us than we do to them are Germany and the Netherlands. Germany would arguably have most to gain from Brexit with the prospect of financial organisations moving their EU operations to Frankfurt. I am sure that would offer some compensation.

The biggest obstacle that we have against getting a good deal would be the time constraints. Obviously, if we activate article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, we only have two years to conclude the deal but even if we do not do that, the markets (and their fear of the unknown) will make agreeing a deal a priority. Being pushed for time puts you at a significant disadvantage in any negotiations.

The best deal that I can see us doing is one where we would have a similar deal to we have now, with us paying into the EU and accepting freedom of movement, in return for tariff free access. The problem being that the campaign focusing on immigration to such a degree makes a deal like this very difficult to do and sell here. Maybe they could give us a nominal concession that could be sold as a victory but it is hard to see why the other European governments would want to do this, when we have put them through this when they have far more important concerns that they think the continent should be focusing.

 

[milo]

Only the Dutch and Germans export more to us than they buy. Out of what 27 states? Overall, we export more to the EU than we buy from the EU, is that correct? So there are some delusions of grandeur here from Leave. They are more important to us for exports, than we are to them.

Why would the EU change its laws for us? Why would they let us leave the single market, but allow us free trade!? That would be a better deal than any EU member state gets! Sure they'll agree to that! This is a notion that is as crazy as it is unrealistic.

https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/

 

[Glenda's Legs]

Your position and mine sound very similar on the matter.

I think had Cameron been sent back from Brussels with more than a "fudge you" I'd still be heavily on the remain side rather than just about as I am now.

Ultimately the fear tactics have worked a bit - I've got too much to lose and I can't see what massive changes leave will create in my life other than those of principle.

This was always going to be a problem. Firstly, in any other realm, you would not carry out such a significant negotiation in the public eye, where you have to set out your position and intended aims in advance for all to see. Secondly, when the figurehead for the negotiation (ie. Cameron) was known to be pro-remain, our bargaining position was immediately weakened.
If we were negotiating now based on the polls from the last few days, I bet we would get a far, far better deal.

 

[milo]

This was always going to be a problem. Firstly, in any other realm, you would not carry out such a significant negotiation in the public eye, where you have to set out your position and intended aims in advance for all to see. Secondly, when the figurehead for the negotiation (ie. Cameron) was known to be pro-remain, our bargaining position was immediately weakened.
If we were negotiating now based on the polls from the last few days, I bet we would get a far, far better deal.

It was also the wrong time to be holding the negotiations. Europe's focus was understandably on the Syrian refugee crisis and the financial problems within the southern Eurozone states. Cameron was also under pressure to get it concluded before the French and German general elections next year.

 

[scaramanga]

This was always going to be a problem. Firstly, in any other realm, you would not carry out such a significant negotiation in the public eye, where you have to set out your position and intended aims in advance for all to see. Secondly, when the figurehead for the negotiation (ie. Cameron) was known to be pro-remain, our bargaining position was immediately weakened.
If we were negotiating now based on the polls from the last few days, I bet we would get a far, far better deal.

This would be my ideal solution. Now that we have shown Brexit to be a possibility, the EU should be given a chance to offer us terms again - specifically we should have a veto on anything we don't like, the ability to set our own levels of financial input and complete financial freedom. Anything else I'm not too fussed about.

 

[scaramanga]

Only the Dutch and Germans export more to us than they buy. Out of what 27 states? Overall, we export more to the EU than we buy from the EU, is that correct? So there are some delusions of grandeur here from Leave. They are more important to us for exports, than we are to them.

Why would the EU change its laws for us? Why would they let us leave the single market, but allow us free trade!? That would be a better deal than any EU member state gets! Sure they'll agree to that! This is a notion that is as crazy as it is unrealistic.

The only two countries that export more to us than we do to them are Germany and the Netherlands. Germany would arguably have most to gain from Brexit with the prospect of financial organisations moving their EU operations to Frankfurt. I am sure that would offer some compensation.

The biggest obstacle that we have against getting a good deal would be the time constraints. Obviously, if we activate article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, we only have two years to conclude the deal but even if we do not do that, the markets (and their fear of the unknown) will make agreeing a deal a priority. Being pushed for time puts you at a significant disadvantage in any negotiations.

The best deal that I can see us doing is one where we would have a similar deal to we have now, with us paying into the EU and accepting freedom of movement, in return for tariff free access. The problem being that the campaign focusing on immigration to such a degree makes a deal like this very difficult to do and sell here. Maybe they could give us a nominal concession that could be sold as a victory but it is hard to see why the other European governments would want to do this, when we have put them through this when they have far more important concerns that they think the continent should be focusing.

Unless Germany massively change their tax laws they won't be getting much banking trade.

It really doesn't matter that we're net exporters, you've both been sold a dummy there. Germany and France both export heavily to us, their industries will not accept tarrifs that reduce that trade - especially in cars from Germany and energy from France. They can bluster all they want about it costing us but they have to answer to their electorate and that will keep our trade tarrif free.