Politics, politics, politics

[SpurMeUp]

Well we should change government every time the is a change in opinion poll then.

Isn't that how Democracy works? At a minium of every 5 years government changes according to polling of the day. And there was only 2 years between the last two General Elections. Quite possibly there will only be a 2 year gap from the last to the next one now.

What mess? Don't let the liberal media lead the narrative here. Perhaps a slight slow down in growth but no mess yet.

Seriously? Even stanuch Brexiteers like Boris are saying, lets get out of this mess. We have no plan, no prospect of an agreement, and a government with no options - damned whatever it does.

You said it yourself "a slight slow down but no mess yet" Exactly, this is savable, the UK will have had slower growth and delayed the end of Austerity, but the UK hasn't yet lost massive amounts of jobs, and the investment would come back if we can trade freely with our neighbours.

I would have accepted soft brexit to start with but we have a once in a lifetime chance to do something great and set the country on an amazing path. Bound to be a little bit of upheaval at first mind, but the end goal is worth it.

If people are honest, Hard Brexit has not been a choice for Leavers, its the only option, as its become clear that soft Brexit doesn't deliver anything! It is worse than Remaining. The one thing in Hard Brexit's favour is that it still remains undefined, so people can project their wants and desires onto it.

If you take the time to break down and model what a harder brexit looks like, does it end in a similar prognosis to Soft Brexit - no real improvement for the UK?

Yet, the sentiments of Brexit are honorable, the themes of Brexit need to delivered upon. To me that is by making changes in the UK and working with other euro-sceptical EU countries to guide the EU to fit comtempory desires in Europe. Lets remain at the centre and affect change, not run away to the periphery, where the UK will still be at the mercy of global forces. We're better off helping to shape and control these forces, rather than think we can cut off from them.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Re. Customs Union and renationalisation -- I believe that's why Labour say "a" Customs Union instead of "the" Customs Union. Maybe the EU would say "get phucked" and maybe they wouldn't. But I would say, from the point of view of remain voters, this starting position for negotiation is preferable to the Tory one, which says "no customs union." With regard tariffs, I just don't have any knowledge on that to be able to give you a sensible reply. I'd simply say that I don't expect any solution to be perfect, there is going to have to be compromise.

Makes sense

My view is more that the cleaner break we make now, the more freedom a radical Attlee style government will have to restructure everything. So I'm happy to lend my support to the full repatriation of powers bid until the end of the transition period in (hopefully) 2021. After then, screw them over with a deglobalisation landslide.

 

[the dza]

Makes sense

My view is more that the cleaner break we make now, the more freedom a radical Attlee style government will have to restructure everything. So I'm happy to lend my support to the full repatriation of powers bid until the end of the transition period in (hopefully) 2021. After then, screw them over with a deglobalisation landslide.

I understand this viewpoint. Where I differ is that I think a Johnson/Rees-Mogg led Hard-Brexit, with a Tory government, could do so much damage to the lives of working class people in this country. They have bashed the poor for the best part of ten years, trebled homelessness etc. and that's with the so-called constraints of the EU. Once they have their hard Brexit and can tear up protections for workers and the environment, they will phucking rape working-class people and the poor in general to enrich themselves and their ilk, they don't care about anything else. This is why, imo, in or out of the EU, this mob have to be shown the door asap.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Yet, the sentiments of Brexit are honorable, they themes of Brexit need to delivered upon. To me that is by making changes in the UK and working with other euro-sceptical EU countries to guide the EU to fit comtempory desires in Europe. Lets remain at the centre and affect change, not run away to the periphery, where the UK will still be at the mercy of global forces. I'm better off helping to shape and control these forces, rather than think we can cut off from them.

That failed spectacularly for 40 years.

If the EU reformed itself to something resembling EFTA between 1960-73, I'd probably vote to join it. But it's never ever going to happen

 

[SpurMeUp]

I don't think there will be any significant movement in polls until we are further along with Brexit. A "centrist" isn't going to come along on a white horse waving an EU flag and grab up 45% of the electorate because otherwise, the Lib Dems would be polling 15-20 percent of the vote and instead they are averaging about 8% in the polls. "Leavers" are solidly behind the Tories at least until we have actually left, imo. And any General Election that gets called in the meantime will be a close run thing -- my hope is that Labour do well enough to get the Tories out of power.

Some think there will be new lines drawn in political parties. Maybe we will see that. It could help clean things up a bit. At the moment, the two main parties seem divided. It's a contradition but I think people are calling out for a 'Revolutionary Centrist". Someone who is respectable, not going to upset business, but who can deliver quick and effective change. Corbyn is half way there, but needs to clean up his revolutionary image and stance. It's not conducive to the UK's culture and existing setup - which you have to take with you. No one can wipe the state clean, you have to build on what you have now.

 

[the dza]

Some think there will be new lines drawn in political parties. Maybe we will see that. It could help clean things up a bit. At the moment, the two main parties seem divided. It's a contradition but I think people are calling out for a 'Revolutionary Centrist". Someone who is respectable, not going to upset business, but who can deliver quick and effect change. Corbyn is half way there, but needs to clean up his revolutionary image and stance. It's not conducive to the UK's culture and existing setup - which you have to take with you. No one can wipe the state clean, you have to build on what you have now.

Agreed. But that includes Brexit and working with it, rather than denying it, imo. Also, it means Labour running a good enough GE campaign where they can pinch enough marginals to become the largest party (at worst) and govern from there. I don't see that as a pipe dream, it's entirely possible.

 

[Gutter Boy]

I understand this viewpoint. Where I differ is that I think a Johnson/Rees-Mogg led Hard-Brexit, with a Tory government, could do so much damage to the lives of working class people in this country. They have bashed the poor for the best part of ten years, trebled homelessness etc. and that's with the so-called constraints of the EU. Once they have their hard Brexit and can tear up protections for workers and the environment, they will phucking rape working-class people and the poor in general to enrich themselves and their ilk, they don't care about anything else. This is why, imo, in or out of the EU, this mob have to be shown the door asap.

But there'd have to be a general election within 18 months (legally by June 2022), so it wouldn't be able to stick.

I think there's just too much of a danger than Corbyn will get toppled and someone like Umunna will lead us right back to the worst of EU neo-liberalism. I trust Corbyn to deliver Brexit, but not the wider PLP

 

[StephenH]

Oh how witty and clever of you. Linking something you disagree with to masturbation.

Actually thank you that one remark has changed my whole view on the issue. I will now side with remain.

Jeez I wonder about people sometimes I really do. You guys pretend you have the moral high ground but seem so quick to result to insults. Strange behaviour.

The reference to mastibation was that it is only gratifying for those who deem it of any importance and are participating in the act.
By in large serving little actual purpose.

We should negotiated the terms, then voted on the deal!
This current farce is arse about face.

A correctly implemented Eu referendum may well have failed but that’s why the barmy army didn’t want it.
Now we have this mess.
Shame I would have had some respect what ever the result if properly managed.
Now it’s a con trick by Boris and the rest of the Hooray Henry’s.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Agreed. But that includes Brexit and working with it, rather than denying it, imo. Also, it means Labour running a good enough GE campaign where they can pinch enough marginals to become the largest party (at worst) and govern from there. I don't see that as a pipe dream, it's entirely possible.

Brexit is not a reality. After 2 years we still don't know what it will be, let alone start to work with it. Between here and 'Brexit' there is an aweful lot to do. Governments hands would be tied for years dealing with the fall out. As things stand government has been in limbo ticking over. Actually 'doing Brexit' would consume any government for at least one term. So where are we working from now? We are still in a remain setup - cars are still made and exported, finance still flows in and out of the city etc.

I do agree we have to work with what is here now - but for me that is sentiment and desires - not an actual Brexit setup. A full on hard Brexit setup is such a hard thing to deliver, I don't think we will be able to do it. The losses to the UK and time it would take preclude it.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Some think there will be new lines drawn in political parties. Maybe we will see that. It could help clean things up a bit. At the moment, the two main parties seem divided. It's a contradition but I think people are calling out for a 'Revolutionary Centrist". Someone who is respectable, not going to upset business, but who can deliver quick and effective change. Corbyn is half way there, but needs to clean up his revolutionary image and stance. It's not conducive to the UK's culture and existing setup - which you have to take with you. No one can wipe the state clean, you have to build on what you have now.

That's not what has happened elsewhere. The centre right and centre left have both been losing a lot of ground to the far right (AFD, Front National, Lega Nord) and libertarian left (Five Star, Alliance 90, Syriza)

If that spreads here, Tories and Labour would both hemorrhage votes to UKIP and the Greens, and we'd have one of those taking the DUP's kingmaker role.

 

[the dza]

But there'd have to be a general election within 18 months (legally by June 2022), so it wouldn't be able to stick.

I think there's just too much of a danger than Corbyn will get toppled and someone like Umunna will lead us right back to the worst of EU neo-liberalism. I trust Corbyn to deliver Brexit, but not the wider PLP

Well, let's hope May takes another walking holiday soon. There are probably a few scenarios where the government falls apart and a GE ends up being called, but who knows what's going to happen? Politics is certainly unpredictable at the moment.

With regards Corbyn being toppled, he is perfectly safe until he loses a GE, imo. The membership are right behind him, regardless of most being remain voters (for example, I am a Labour member and remain voter). The Unions are right behind him, despite some differences on Brexit and other areas. And those in the PLP who are against him have shown themselves to be impotent (see the earlier coup attempt, the members told them where to go).

 

[SpurMeUp]

That's not what has happened elsewhere. The centre right and centre left have both been losing a lot of ground to the far right (AFD, Front National, Lega Nord) and libertarian left (Five Star, Alliance 90, Syriza)

If that spreads here, Tories and Labour would both hemorrhage votes to UKIP and the Greens, and we'd have one of those taking the DUP's kingmaker role.

In a way I'd say Trump is a 'centreist revolutionary'. He's from the establishment, he panders to the masses, but likes to be viewed as different and offers the prospect of bold and brave changes. There is something there, that will be replicated.

 

[the dza]

Brexit is not a reality. After 2 years we still don't know what it will be, let alone start to work with it. Between here and 'Brexit' there is an aweful lot to do. Governments hands would be tied for years dealing with the fall out. As things stand government has been in limbo ticking over. Actually 'doing Brexit' would consume any government for at least one term. So where are we working from now? We are still in a remain setup - cars are still made and exported, finance still flows in and out of the city etc.

I do agree we have to work with what is here now - but for me that is sentiment and desires - not an actual Brexit setup. A full on hard Brexit setup is such a hard thing to deliver, I don't think we will be able to do it. The losses to the UK and time it would take preclude it.

Respectfully, I disagree. The majority who voted in the referendum voted to leave, Article 50 has been triggered and the government is totally committed to leaving the EU, albeit making a mess of things up to now. So it is most certainly happening. To work with this is to choose how Brexit happens (one example, Customs Union or not?) and the only choice in town is for Labour to do it or the Tories to do it. These parties have around 80% of the vote between them and neither is going to ignore the referendum and pay the political cost of doing so.

 

[the dza]

In a way I'd say Trump is a 'centreist revolutionary'. He's from the establishment, he panders to the masses, but likes to be viewed as different and offers the prospect of bold and brave changes. There is something there, that will be replicated.

Trump is right wing and simply a fake populist. He campaigned to be on the side of the little guy with populist rhetoric, but what has he done for them in terms of policy? Education, housing, wages, healthcare? Even his tax cuts will increase taxes for those earning less than $80k over a ten year period whilst the bulk of the tax breaks flow to the very richest. He's a con man, pure and simple. I understand why people who voted for Obama twice took a punt on him or stayed at home, but the gamble has failed.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

That failed spectacularly for 40 years.

If the EU reformed itself to something resembling EFTA between 1960-73, I'd probably vote to join it. But it's never ever going to happen

Same as me. I would vote into a trading block.

Thought it might have finally sunk in over there with Macron coming out and saying we should have different levels of EU membership then he backtracked and starting going all EU extremist again.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Trump is right wing and simply a fake populist. He campaigned to be on the side of the little guy with populist rhetoric, but what has he done for them in terms of policy? Education, housing, wages, healthcare? Even his tax cuts will increase taxes for those earning less than $80k over a ten year period whilst the bulk of the tax breaks flow to the very richest. He's a con man, pure and simple. I understand why people who voted for Obama twice took a punt on him or stayed at home, but the gamble has failed.

I'm not saying his implementation is any good, but the broad setup is interesting. Populism is real and offers something exciting to people. Corbyn is more stuck in the past, he needs to work with the existing and connect with the establishment to deliver on his vision (imo).

 

[r-u-s-x]

You just cancel it and move on as you put it. You will have 17 million people feeling lied to and betrayed.

In this country we have seen a resurgent left wing movement. You betray 17m people and it won't be just UKIP you need to worry about it will be the BNP. Britain has not shown the same interest in the far right as the rest of Europe but you deny 17million people democracy you are storing up issues down the line.

I would guess a fair percentage of the 17 million would already feel lied to and betrayed ... Brexit don't seem to be what was promised

 

[SpurMeUp]

Respectfully, I disagree. The majority who voted in the referendum voted to leave, Article 50 has been triggered and the government is totally committed to leaving the EU, albeit making a mess of things up to now. So it is most certainly happening. To work with this is to choose how Brexit happens (one example, Customs Union or not?) and the only choice in town is for Labour to do it or the Tories to do it. These parties have around 80% of the vote between them and neither is going to ignore the referendum and pay the political cost of doing so.

Despite all that, most of us continue to work day to day as we always have. Some car making jobs have gone to Slovakia, some UK companies have been bought up by forign owners post Brexit vote, housing prices have paused in London, things are a bit more expensive in the shops, but all in all, not much is different right now. According to Article 50 we don't leave the EU until April.

The rest is farce. Simply: staying in the customs union, you may as well be in the EU, as you have some control over it. Why would you degrade your control for exactly the same thing? Hard Brexit means implementing a whole new infrastructure at customs, restructing our whole economy, impaired trade with our neighbours (500m of them), agreeing complex and time consuming trade deals, building up our government to have new departments, implementing a myraid of new laws etc etc etc

The realities are starkly clear. Yet people decide to ignore them. But for how long? And what will break first? The cracks are obvious, and public sentiment has already shifted a little so that Brexit is now undemocratic. One thing is for sure, Brexit in real day to day terms has not been unleashed on the UK. Will it? That's the fun question. I don't think it will happen, becuase of the logic above.

 

[StephenH]

I'm saying his implementation is any good, but the broad setup is interesting. Populism is real and offers something exciting to people. Corbyn is more stuck in the past, he needs to work with the existing and connect with the establishment to deliver on his vision (imo).

Trouble is these thing get hi jacked by the the Trumps and Boris’s of this world, they care little for beliefs and even less for the ordinary folk.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

The realities are starkly clear. Yet people decide to ignore them. But for how long? And what will break first? The cracks are obvious, and public sentiment has already shifted a little so that Brexit is now undemocratic. One thing is for sure, Brexit in real day to day terms has not been unleashed on the UK. Will it? That's the fun question. I don't think it will happen, becuase of the logic above.

It is laughable how you keep saying that, I dont and have never thought Brexit would happen from the time Cameron refused to send the letter despite saying he would.

But the referendum was done. You might not like it as I sometimes dont like the composition of our national governments, but just because opinion polls change slightly does not mean the result is not valid.

You have another referendum and remain wins, then a year later after another recession when the EU ask for more money maybe a bail out for one of their countries and opinion polls shift again in favour of leave, does that mean a second referendum is invalid. It is pathetic and rather childish. You will end up in the situation where no result in a referendum or general election stands.

Just because you don't like an outcome does not mean you can just moan and moan to have it changed. You see this in America with Trump, I hate the guy as much as the next guy he is unfit to run that country, but he won, so you have to wait till the next election to hopefully defeat him. The are some really sore losers who like to scream and shout when they don't get their own way.