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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

First YouGov MRP poll since the GE. If a GE was to be held this year:
- Reform 271 seats
- Labour 178 seats
- Lib Dems 81 seats
- Tories 46 seats
- SNP 38 seats
- Greens 3 seats
- Plaid Cymru 3 seats

Headline simulation results:
99% of simulations =Reform with most seats
97% = hung parliament
In 26% of simulations a Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Green and Plaid coalition have enough seats for a majority
In 9% of simulations Reform and Tory coalition had enough seats for a majority.

Most likely outcome: Reform get most seats and most votes but will unlikely govern.
 
Silly McSilly Face said:
First YouGov MRP poll since the GE. If a GE was to be held this year:
- Reform 271 seats
- Labour 178 seats
- Lib Dems 81 seats
- Tories 46 seats
- SNP 38 seats
- Greens 3 seats
- Plaid Cymru 3 seats

Headline simulation results:
99% of simulations =Reform with most seats
97% = hung parliament
In 26% of simulations a Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Green and Plaid coalition have enough seats for a majority
In 9% of simulations Reform and Tory coalition had enough seats for a majority.

Most likely outcome: Reform get most seats and most votes but will unlikely govern.
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As I live in Oz who are YouGov & how do they come up with these results do they poll a large group of people around the country you get what I mean
 
The peace in Ireland came about when the general populace became sick of it.
The GFA was just the politicians stealing the limelight, 9/11 fudged the hardliners.
Peace in the middle East (or any area with similar conflicts) will come when the general populace realises that it makes no substantial difference to anything which GHod you choose or choose not to worship.
That nice family next door are still a nice family even if he has a different GHod from you.
Just as the arse hole sitting next to you in the holy place is no less an arse hole because you share a belief.

Once the realisation hits home that it's them that suffer, that it's their children and grandchildren that are being born into a cycle that only they can stop will it stop.
The leaders won't do it, they have too much to lose.
Where for instance would gerry Adams or Ian Paisley have been without the troubles.

You can't grab the future if you're holding onto the past.
 
LutonSpurs said:
You said you forced them to have time off. And the retracted and said you offered it.

You lied and then switched when you got worried you had told one you couldn't back up.
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Well they could have taken it unpaid if they wanted.

Or they could have just eaten food like civilised humans and carried on working.

It was always their choice.
 
LutonSpurs said:
Did you force them (illegally or ask them)
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As I said in my other post. I gave them a choice - they didn't have to fast and they didn't have to take leave. But they couldn't fast and work.

Expert organisations such as Croner and Make UK have both confirmed that we are not required to bend to religious requests, merely show that we have listened to and considered them.
 
Silly McSilly Face said:
Unless they want to kill the entire population of gaza then they won't be able to. One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter and just as every Catholic killed in N. Ireland recruited another 2 for the IRA, every Hamas fighter killed by Israel is used to recruit 2 more. There's never ending cycles here of "those bustards killed my dad/mum, brother/sister, mate, child etc etc" and while I understand the Israeli operation in Gaza it will not be successful and will and is losing Israel international support that it needs. And by understand the Israeli operation i mean eradicating Hamas is a legitimate aim but its also unachievable because Hamas is not a nice neat organisation and really is pretty indistinguishable from the civilian population of Gaza and so while I do not believe Israel set out to create genocide, mass genocide in Gaza is effectively the only way to eradicate Hamas.
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Not everyone will react that way. Not everyone needs to become a target.

Some (many) will act in a civilised manner and not take up arms. When the others are gone, they can be the ones who start a Palestine that can coexist with Israel
 
glasgowspur said:
The peace in Ireland came about when the general populace became sick of it.
The GFA was just the politicians stealing the limelight, 9/11 fudged the hardliners.
Peace in the middle East (or any area with similar conflicts) will come when the general populace realises that it makes no substantial difference to anything which GHod you choose or choose not to worship.
That nice family next door are still a nice family even if he has a different GHod from you.
Just as the arse hole sitting next to you in the holy place is no less an arse hole because you share a belief.

Once the realisation hits home that it's them that suffer, that it's their children and grandchildren that are being born into a cycle that only they can stop will it stop.
The leaders won't do it, they have too much to lose.
Where for instance would gerry Adams or Ian Paisley have been without the troubles.

You can't grab the future if you're holding onto the past.
Click to expand...
The Omagh bomb, 6 months after the GFA, also shocked everyone enough into retreat
 
kb 1984 said:
As I live in Oz who are YouGov & how do they come up with these results do they poll a large group of people around the country you get what I mean
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They're one of the major political polling companies in the UK. The MRP polls are the most reliable and most complex of the polls they do, normally accurate to few % swing. They use a large sample (in this case 11,500) and the sample is distributed across constituency level and demographics to accurately model how voting intention breaks down within the UK's electoral system. They then use the voting intention responses to run a simulation using their predictive models. They run this multiple times to generate liklihood of result.
 
Silly McSilly Face said:
They're one of the major political polling companies in the UK. The MRP polls are the most reliable and most complex of the polls they do, normally accurate to few % swing. They use a large sample (in this case 11,500) and the sample is distributed across constituency level and demographics to accurately model how voting intention breaks down within the UK's electoral system. They then use the voting intention responses to run a simulation using their predictive models. They run this multiple times to generate liklihood of result.
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Thanks mate very interesting. I will check to see if they do something similar in Australia

Just checked they did similar at our last election scarily they got it right. Labor with huge majority no one picked that except them
 
scaramanga said:
Well they could have taken it unpaid if they wanted.

Or they could have just eaten food like civilised humans and carried on working.

It was always their choice.
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So people who fast are uncivilised now.

Wow.

Anyway you said you made them take leave. And now you say choice. What I was calling you out on. And it's clear you shifted your story when challenged.

Pretty clear to see you will lie on a forum for clout. Which was my main point. And it's been made and proven.
 
kb 1984 said:
Thanks mate very interesting. I will check to see if they do something similar in Australia

Just checked they did similar at our last election scarily they got it right. Labor with huge majority no one picked that except them
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Yeah their MRP modelling is regarded as pretty accurate. Will 100% identify the overall trend even if they're off by a few % votes or seats wise. What this analysis shows is that Reform are likely to win a huge number of seats at the next GE unless something drastic changes in terms of Labour/Tory popularity.
 
Silly McSilly Face said:
Yeah their MRP modelling is regarded as pretty accurate. Will 100% identify the overall trend even if they're off by a few % votes or seats wise. What this analysis shows is that Reform are likely to win a huge number of seats at the next GE unless something drastic changes in terms of Labour/Tory popularity.
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Yeah they are very likely to get a majority outright as it stands. Closer to the election it does change and people move back towards trad vote but uniquely the older conservative vote may all go to Reform if the Tories can't sort it. And Starmer is as unlikable as they get.
 
LutonSpurs said:
So people who fast are uncivilised now.

Wow.

Anyway you said you made them take leave. And now you say choice. What I was calling you out on. And it's clear you shifted your story when challenged.

Pretty clear to see you will lie on a forum for clout. Which was my main point. And it's been made and proven.
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I'm not sure falsehood should be the automatic assumption when one doesn't understand a simple premise.

Of course they could have just not fasted at any point and of course I would require anyone to take leave if they hadn't. The conversation was about those who insisted on acting in a ridiculous manner that isn't fit for a workplace.
 
LutonSpurs said:
Yeah they are very likely to get a majority outright as it stands. Closer to the election it does change and people move back towards trad vote but uniquely the older conservative vote may all go to Reform if the Tories can't sort it. And Starmer is as unlikable as they get.
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Tories have never had to tactical vote (at least not in the last half a century).

It will be interesting to see if many can bring themselves to vote for a "third" party in order to keep that ruinous coalition out.
 
scaramanga said:
I'm not sure falsehood should be the automatic assumption when one doesn't understand a simple premise.

Of course they could have just not fasted at any point and of course I would require anyone to take leave if they hadn't. The conversation was about those who insisted on acting in a ridiculous manner that isn't fit for a workplace.
Click to expand...

So you forced them to take leave for fasting. Got it

You seen unsure and keep mincing your words. What you worried about?
 
LutonSpurs said:
Yeah they are very likely to get a majority outright as it stands. Closer to the election it does change and people move back towards trad vote but uniquely the older conservative vote may all go to Reform if the Tories can't sort it. And Starmer is as unlikable as they get.
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Well right now they're saying they won't get a majority outright as it stands and in fact will only have a c. 9% probability to be in a coalition government. Despite obtaining the most seats. A lot can change between now and next election but the political momentum is very much with Reform and I think a lot is going to hinge on whether Labour can stop their "red wall" type voters from leaking over there in too high numbers - by delivering on the focus areas that would undercut Reform appeal.
 
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