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Coronavirus

Kandi1977 said:
No hospital in the world can cope with 5-6 times the amount of ICU patients they are equipped to handle. It's not only about the number of beds or equipment, it's the personel required for ICU patients. You can't spec a hospital for 250 ICU beds, when 50 is more than enough 99,9% of the time.
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Hence me saying staff and beds.

Yeah you cant spec a hospital for 250 if you need 50 in normal times. But these aren't normal times and if you are thinking of saying to the people. Many of you will get sick and some will die... you better make sure that you take care of those that get sick and have everything in place to prevent as many people dieing as possible.
 
Grays_1890 said:
when only 20% live once on a ventilator that’s hard
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But if one of those 20% is someone you love then it's worth it.

If you want people to make huge sacrifices that herd immunity will bring. The least you can do is make sure that you put into place everything that you possibly can to mitigate the losses that you are asking them to endure. No excuses.

Like I said previously. Buy time. Prepare resources and therapies. Make 100% sure immunity is possible and long term then herd immunity can be discussed seriously.
 
Seedy Ron said:
I generally agree, but I would think that some items of PPE - I think some masks have a shelf life but I doubt a visor or gown does - and perhaps spare ventilators, could've been sourced and stored already as part of our pandemic plan? It's apparently been in place for years but doesn't seem to have considered this sort of thing (and flunked it's most recent war game I believe)?
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The last pandemic was over 100 years ago. There's no way we can be prepared for something that rare that is (in the grand scheme of things) mainly harmless.
 
scaramanga said:
Be interesting to know what the professor (of Oncology, btw) thinks will happen when we all have to start going outside again.
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Exactly. We can all play hide and seek with the virus but without other instruments....testing, treatments, anti-viral drugs, vaccines we are in no different position than 2 weeks ago.

The only way lockdown works (as a cure) is if everyone religiously stays indoors until the very last person in the world with it either gets better or dies. And that is far from happening.

Without those other things lockdown is helping the NHS from being overwhelmed, that is all. (Obviously a good thing though)
 
Seedy Ron said:
I generally agree, but I would think that some items of PPE - I think some masks have a shelf life but I doubt a visor or gown does - and perhaps spare ventilators, could've been sourced and stored already as part of our pandemic plan? It's apparently been in place for years but doesn't seem to have considered this sort of thing (and flunked it's most recent war game I believe)?
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I agree with having Emergency stock of PPE. But those have deliberately been decommissioned across Europe, especially in countries governed by parties to the right, as they believe everything can and should be bought by the JIT principle. Which turns out to be extremely difficult and expensive when everyone needs it at the same time.
 
scaramanga said:
The last pandemic was over 100 years ago. There's no way we can be prepared for something that rare that is (in the grand scheme of things) mainly harmless.
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Over 250 000 people died from swine flu. That was 10 years ago. In addition, there have been some rather major epidemics, where lots of resources are needed, and need to be brought in from all over the world. Having a reasonable amount of PPE in stock isn't very expensive.
 
DTA said:
But if one of those 20% is someone you love then it's worth it.

If you want people to make huge sacrifices that herd immunity will bring. The least you can do is make sure that you put into place everything that you possibly can to mitigate the losses that you are asking them to endure. No excuses.

Like I said previously. Buy time. Prepare resources and therapies. Make 400% sure immunity is possible and long term then herd immunity can be discussed seriously.
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I get that for sure but the issue is we will never be ready for herd immunity unless you are prepared to accept loss of lives as hard as that is to accept. Reason being is that the only alternative is a lock down till the disease is suffocated or there is a cure.

The herd immunity I suppose you want is one where there is a 1-1 ventilator for any case, that’s not possible even with the best prepared government.
 
Kandi1977 said:
Over 250 000 people died from swine flu. That was 10 years ago. In addition, there have been some rather major epidemics, where lots of resources are needed, and need to be bought in from all over the world. Having a reasonable amount of PPE in stock isn't very expensive.
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It’s not realistic for the country to run at a surplus in the NHS including space, staff and supplies for once every 100 years.
 
Kandi1977 said:
Over 250 000 people died from swine flu. That was 10 years ago. In addition, there have been some rather major epidemics, where lots of resources are needed, and need to be bought in from all over the world. Having a reasonable amount of PPE in stock isn't very expensive.
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250k is so close to nothing it's not even worth mentioning.

We're talking about billions and billions of £s of expenditure here.
 
DTA said:
Make decisions that have such a fundamental affect on society without consideration of the emotional response and your in for a world of pain.
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Anyone in charge of anything more than a box of crayons who allows emotion to control their decisions is failing.

There's much more to this than "I weally, weally hope my granny can live forever and ever and ever"
 
scaramanga said:
The last pandemic was over 100 years ago. There's no way we can be prepared for something that rare that is (in the grand scheme of things) mainly harmless.
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We’ve been overdue a serious pandemic like this for some time. Scientists knew; Bill Gates was giving a TED talk on it a couple of years ago - our own government knew and had been war gaming it recently too. Unfortunately they chose to ignore all the lessons learned from that.

Grays_1890 said:
I get that for sure but the issue is we will never be ready for herd immunity unless you are prepared to accept loss of lives as hard as that is to accept. Reason being is that the only alternative is a lock down till the disease is suffocated or there is a cure.

The herd immunity I suppose you want is one where there is a 1-1 ventilator for any case, that’s not possible even with the best prepared government.
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What we are doing at the moment is buying some time for a vaccine; getting to know more about the virus and therefore getting better at treating it, and limiting its spread; and working out the best way to try to let society function as well as possible while keeping the death rate as low as we can (clue: follow the South Korean model in the way we should have done from the start, if only our government hadn’t been so head-in-the-sand reactive in the early stages).

scaramanga said:
Anyone in charge of anything more than a box of crayons who allows emotion to control their decisions is failing.

There's much more to this than "I weally, weally hope my granny can live forever and ever and ever"
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I like a lot of your posts but on this topic I can’t work out if you are on the wind up or just pretty stupid. I’ll choose to plump for believing the former. I always try to see the best in people. :D
 
Mikey10 said:
We’ve been overdue a serious pandemic like this for some time. Scientists knew; Bill Gates was giving a TED talk on it a couple of years ago - our own government knew and had been war gaming it recently too. Unfortunately they chose to ignore all the lessons learned from that.
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Pandemics are never "due" - they don't come along on a schedule. You're basing your opinion on a fundamental misunderstanding of probability.

Mikey10 said:
I like a lot of your posts but on this topic I can’t work out if you are on the wind up or just pretty stupid. I’ll choose to plump for believing the former. I always try to see the best in people. :D
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I'm just able to look at the bigger picture. It's a lovely idea to think that nobody will ever die ever again, but it's not realistic. So we have to take the least worst option here - and the answer is not spending every penny we (don't) have on low probability, low-medium effect events.
 
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