Contingency planning : When Ange is sacked, who should replace him?

[Robspur12]

But if you have to do both, why was no manager sacked for finishing 4th/5th but trophyless?

AVB wasn't, Poch wasn't, Conte wasn't, even Ange wasn't after finishing 5th.

Probably because finishing high up in the league is the best sign of consistent progression. Winning a cup in isolation is superb for us as fans but doesn’t necessarily indicate progression. Ask Juande Ramos, or George Graham.

 

[DubaiSpur]

Probably because finishing high up in the league is the best sign of consistent progression. Winning a cup in isolation is superb for us as fans but doesn’t necessarily indicate progression. Ask Juande Ramos, or George Graham.

Fair. But where does that consistent progression get you, with no cup at the end of it? The goal has to be to win things at the end, surely?

Poch finished 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. But ultimately, we won nothing, and lost every final we played in until Ange.

The winning mentality only comes from actually winning things - finishing 4th/5th doesn't give that to you, only winning things does.

We even had a taste of this after the Carling Cup - we went straight to the final the very next year, only to be knocked out on pens. We were confident enough as holders to nearly go away all the way again. But we lost that institutional memory in subsequent years of trophyless upper mid-table finishes.

It's another point Ange makes - we can't be satisfied with winning the EL once. Now is the time to start craving that sensation, and aim to win more.

If we go back to a coach that prioritizes 4th-5th over trophies, that momentum will be lost.

 

[Robspur12]

Poch finished 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. But ultimately, we won nothing, and lost every final we played in until Ange.

I don’t think it’s a straight forward correlation that winning means you’re good and not winning means you’re not. I’m troubled by this narrative if I’m honest mate.

We were aiming for the biggest trophies under Poch, and the year on year progression up to his final season put us in the frame for those big trophies. Trophies we had no right winning given the size of our squad compared to our rivals. We saw how his style became embedded in the team as we went from season to season. Sadly, we didn’t invest at the right time to continue on that arc.

Conversely and, at the risk of sounding like I’m devaluing the trophy (I am not), winning it without showing any progression in the League, with no sign of the manager having embedded his style, with the manager playing a style so alien to his preferred system just to get over the line, imho puts us on the same arc as winning the CC in 2008, A great one off but that’s all it is likely to be.

 

[DubaiSpur]

That’s because we were aiming for the biggest trophies under Poch, and the year on year progression up to his final season put us in the frame for those big trophies. Trophies we had no right winning given the size of our squad compared to our rivals. We saw how his style became embedded in the team as we went from season to season. Sadly, we didn’t invest at the right time to continue on that arc.

Good take, though I think it's less progression all the way up to his final year, and more a peak at the middle of his tenure after which we fell away. The league positions prove it - 5th, 3rd, 2nd, and then 3rd and 4th. 2016-2017 was the season where everything came together, but we lacked the squad depth to really make it count - because of a lack of investment, as you pointed out.

By 2019, we were running on fumes in part because of a lack of belief in the players after so long challenging without winning, loss of key personnel to sales and injuries (particularly Dembele, but also Walker and Wanyama) and opponents figuring out our high press, which was revolutionary when Poch brought to the PL, but was challenged by Klopp's gegenpressing and then the rest of the league following suit in 2018-2019.

Conversely and, at the risk of sounding like I’m devaluing the trophy (I am not), winning it without showing any progression in the League, with no sign of the manager having embedded his style, with the manager playing a style so alien to his preferred system just to get over the line, imho puts us on the same arc as winning the CC in 2008, A great one off but that’s likely all it will be.

I take your points, and in truth I think they're well made - which is why I'm not denigrating the Ange Out folks and think they have fair points. As @Bedfordspurs mentioned, both sides have valid arguments.

But I think it's difficult to make an estimation of how his system would have gelled without the injury crisis that led to us playing Archie Gray and Ben Davies as a centre-back pairing at key points in the season. I think, for various reasons, we're less likely to go through that level of disruption again, and so it becomes a question of whether a less injury-hit side can show the progression that was lacking in the league campaign.

I think provided he adapts his tactics and brings on more tactically astute coaches to replace (and perhaps complement) the likes of Mason, we should see a better side next year.

 

[Lilbaz]

Fair. But where does that consistent progression get you, with no cup at the end of it? The goal has to be to win things at the end, surely?

Poch finished 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. But ultimately, we won nothing, and lost every final we played in until Ange.

The winning mentality only comes from actually winning things - finishing 4th/5th doesn't give that to you, only winning things does.

We even had a taste of this after the Carling Cup - we went straight to the final the very next year, only to be knocked out on pens. We were confident enough as holders to nearly go away all the way again. But we lost that institutional memory in subsequent years of trophyless upper mid-table finishes.

It's another point Ange makes - we can't be satisfied with winning the EL once. Now is the time to start craving that sensation, and aim to win more.

If we go back to a coach that prioritizes 4th-5th over trophies, that momentum will be lost.

Where does consistant regression in the league take you?
The 3 teams coming up might not be as bad as the 3 that went down. It wasn't long ago the likes of bournmouth, fulham and brentford all stayed up.
We could be playing in the championship the season after next.

 

[harr1984]

We saw how that guy fared in the league last season....hence the debate over to stick or twist.

We all know why there is a debate, the question is whether Frank warrants the job. If that's the best we can come up with then I'll be disappointed tbh...

 

[Mosquito_Coasting]

Probably because finishing high up in the league is the best sign of consistent progression. Winning a cup in isolation is superb for us as fans but doesn’t necessarily indicate progression. Ask Juande Ramos, or George Graham.

Three million per league place I heard the other day. Like finishing 10-12 places higher in the league is kind of equivalent of all the Europa prize money we got.

 

[tommysvr]

Probably because finishing high up in the league is the best sign of consistent progression. Winning a cup in isolation is superb for us as fans but doesn’t necessarily indicate progression. Ask Juande Ramos, or George Graham.

The point is building something where we don’t just win in isolation. I will forever be convinced that the best way to work towards that is to stick with a project and build that winning culture, not rip it up every couple of seasons. Which is what we’ve done since George Graham. What evidence is there that twisting works for Tottenham Hotspur?

Give me a cup every 3-4 years over consistent 4th - 8th finishes. When I look back in 30 or 40 years, I’m going to remember seeing Sonny and Ledley lifting a trophy. I might look back and think about the Poch team that finished second with enjoyment…but not much else.

 

[billyiddo]

Beyond this, to be clear, if he goes, it isn't because he didn't succeed on all fronts, like the top clubs tend to aim for.

It's because he didn't succeed in the league, specifically. He could win a cup treble but still be under pressure for finishing 17th - conversely, he could finish 2nd, win absolutely nothing, and be lauded for doing so. That's the message sacking him sends.

As we've discussed, this will not produce the mentality of a top club. All that does is create a mentality of safety-first - finish 4th, win nothing, and keep your job. Take a risk to win a trophy, and lose it.

We mock Wenger-era Arsenal for having this mentality, but sack Ange and this is exactly what we aspire to be, too.

'Didn't succeed in the league' is a very charitable way of describing our league performance this season.

 

[Silly McSilly Face]

Beyond this, to be clear, if he goes, it isn't because he didn't succeed on all fronts, like the top clubs tend to aim for.

It's because he didn't succeed in the league, specifically. He could win a cup treble but still be under pressure for finishing 17th - conversely, he could finish 2nd, win absolutely nothing, and be lauded for doing so. That's the message sacking him sends.

As we've discussed, this will not produce the mentality of a top club. All that does is create a mentality of safety-first - finish 4th, win nothing, and keep your job. Take a risk to win a trophy, and lose it.

We mock Wenger-era Arsenal for having this mentality, but sack Ange and this is exactly what we aspire to be, too.

The league is where you create sustained success. Because a high league finish is the sign of a consistently high performing team. And only a consistently high performing team will produce sustained success. You keep your job by finishing high in the league and winning nothing because winning trophies has a degree of luck attached. Finishing high in the league means your coaching, tactics, training, conditioning are all of a high standard. Guess what finishing 17th in the league and losing 22 games having suffered a raft of injuries for the second season in a row suggests?

 

[Robspur12]

Poch team that finished second with enjoyment…but not much else.

Finishing second and reaching the Champions League final were actually unprecedented. The first in the PL era the second in our club's history. We are historically a cup winning team. And don't get me wrong I loved those cup wins.

But the consistency of winning the league has only happened twice in our history. During that Poch period we were almost achieving things we fans thought impossible. And honestly if you ask me where I would like the club to be long term, it's being talked about in the same conversation as great Liverpool and City sides. Not finishing above the relegation zone.

 

[Gazza]

I’m just not convinced by the manner of our defeats that he is the right manager. It almost sounded like it didn’t matter if we lost. And as for this winning mentality thing …. Where was it in the league? We look pony in defence and organisation. Even in the final if Manchester United had one decent finisher we would have suffered a loss.

We just are not that good under his management.

 

[harr1984]

The point is building something where we don’t just win in isolation. I will forever be convinced that the best way to work towards that is to stick with a project and build that winning culture, not rip it up every couple of seasons. Which is what we’ve done since George Graham. What evidence is there that twisting works for Tottenham Hotspur?

Give me a cup every 3-4 years over consistent 4th - 8th finishes. When I look back in 30 or 40 years, I’m going to remember seeing Sonny and Ledley lifting a trophy. I might look back and think about the Poch team that finished second with enjoyment…but not much else.

Over the options mooted I would rather see if Ange can build on the winning culture that we want to develop. We all know the league season was poor, there were some mitigating circumstances but we can't ever accept finishing 17th really. But I would hedge my bets we wouldn't be that low again, and I would back Ange to know what it takes to develop a winning squad over Thomas Frank or Mario Silva. If Glasner was available I would be interested, he's done great things at Palace and has won the EL too....

 

[harr1984]

Finishing second and reaching the Champions League final were actually unprecedented. The first in the PL era the second in our club's history. We are historically a cup winning team. And don't get me wrong I loved those cup wins.

But the consistency of winning the league has only happened twice in our history. During that Poch period we were almost achieving things we fans thought impossible.

Yeah would never knock Poch for what he did, he was great for us and we were consistently competing at the top of the league, we were enjoying our football week in week out. He came close, but ultimately didn't win anything and that is the question mark over him - he's won the league with PSG which everyone does and not anything else. He's a great coach and I loved him here, but I'm not sure him coming back here is the answer for him or us - he was the right man at the right time for us, I'm just not convinced he is the guy to get us winning trophies tbh....

 

[Raziel]

No, it definitely won't. Like I said, we can't accept 17th ever again, trophy or no trophy.

But the fact remains, he finished 17th with 22 losses...and won a trophy. Which we haven't done for 17 years, to the point where the entire club was labouring under the mental burden of being constant also-rans, the butt of everyone's jokes.

He had a point when he said that finishing 4th-5th changes nothing - this club has finished 4th-5th plenty of times. the only way to build a winning mentality, is to win things.

As for what United do, they are sticking with a man who lost more games than Ten Hag, and left the club in a worse spot than Ten Hag had them when he left. I wouldn't call them a particularly well-run outfit, but they do know how to win things, and they feel there's more to Amorim than the underlying stats show.

I think we're in a similar pickle with Ange.

Honestly, I don't fudging know

- I would have fired him in Nov/Dec, incoming manager would have probably recovered our league position, we might have finished 6th/7th with zero cup
- The club/Levy against all odds/precedent/logic, stuck with him and we got a night most will not forget, and to your point, got the monkey off our back.

That said, almost feels like when you do something extremely risky/stupid and get away with it, take the 1 in a thousand shot at something and actually win, bet all on one hand and it plays out .. do you really just do the same stupid brick again? or do you take your winnings and just be a little more sensible building from that position?

 

[Muttley]

It sort of makes me chuckle that people are trying to make Spurs discarding the league a good strategy even though for decades the teams at the top have mostly won all the trophies on offer. Even this season, Chelsea and Saudi Sportswashing Machine picked up a trophy AND CL football by league finish. Even Palace were full strength to win our league game within a week of their own cup final.

We should probably know that there is a truth that we did weaken the league team. There is also a massive truth that we still put incredibly strong sides out but the tactical system wasn't working for the level of our players we have. That is why we're at this crossroads with Ange, not the EL.

So when it comes to the tough conversation between THFC and Ange, he is the one that needs to have good answers. He is the one that needs to convince his employers he has better football solutions for next season.

 

[glasgowspur]

Finishing second and reaching the Champions League final were actually unprecedented. The first in the PL era the second in our club's history. We are historically a cup winning team. And don't get me wrong I loved those cup wins.

But the consistency of winning the league has only happened twice in our history. During that Poch period we were almost achieving things we fans thought impossible. And honestly if you ask me where I would like the club to be long term, it's being talked about in the same conversation as great Liverpool and City sides. Not finishing above the relegation zone.

And yet I would suggest that ultimately those aims are what cost not just Poch his job but our subsequent years of turmoil.
We never had the squad to compete for those trophies, I don't think anyone at the club or in the fanbase expected us to be there so quickly, if at all, under Poch.
We may have had the squad to compete for top four and a cup in a couple of those seasons, from there we could have pushed on.
Get a taste of success, a tangible, physical accomplishment, prove we can do it along with getting the monkey off our back.
Then we push on, we build and strengthen not just in numbers but in experience and quality.
Instead of becoming utd under fergie we became closer to Saudi Sportswashing Machine under/after keegan.
Unrealistic expectations to soon killed us with Poch.
I love and admire the guy, would have him back tomorrow, but we made several mistakes in his time and IMHO this was the biggest.

 

[tommysvr]

Finishing second and reaching the Champions League final were actually unprecedented. The first in the PL era the second in our club's history. We are historically a cup winning team. And don't get me wrong I loved those cup wins.

But the consistency of winning the league has only happened twice in our history. During that Poch period we were almost achieving things we fans thought impossible. And honestly if you ask me where I would like the club to be long term, it's being talked about in the same conversation as great Liverpool and City sides. Not finishing above the relegation zone.

Great, we finished 2nd a couple of times. It was enjoyable. I'll look back on the Ajax night fondly...but Bilbao means 100x more than anything Poch gave us. That's nothing to do with Ange. That's because Sonny's image will forever be there next to Danny Blanchflower, Graham Roberts, Gary Mabbutt, Ledley King etc.

It should be obvious so I hope I don't have to clarify it...but I'm not saying I don't want to finish in the top 6. But what is the next manager going to measured by? Clearly just winning a trophy is not good enough. So what is it? Now it must be top 6 and a trophy? Top 10 and a trophy? No trophy but top 5? Everything about this whole debate just screams that Tottenham Hotspur does not know what it wants to be.

Anyway, I don't want Thomas Frank but if he's the man given the job then I'll get behind him and maintain exactly the same stance as I have with Ange. Don't abuse him, don't sing "you don't know what you're doing", don't call him clueless when he's obviously not. And, most importantly, give him a full fudging 3 years to actually build something.

 

[Muttley]

Great, we finished 2nd a couple of times. It was enjoyable. I'll look back on the Ajax night fondly...but Bilbao means 100x more than anything Poch gave us. That's nothing to do with Ange. That's because Sonny's image will forever be there next to Danny Blanchflower, Graham Roberts, Gary Mabbutt, Ledley King etc.

It should be obvious that I hope I don't have to clarify it...but I'm not saying I don't want to finish in the top 6th. But what is the next manager going to measured by? Clearly just winning a trophy is not good enough. So what is it? Now it must be top 6 and a trophy? Top 10 and a trophy? No trophy but top 5? Everything about this whole debate just screams that Tottenham Hotspur does not know what it wants to be.

Anyway, I don't want Thomas Frank but if he's the man given the job then I'll get behind him and maintain exactly the same stance as I have with Ange. Don't abuse him, don't sing "you don't know what you're doing", don't call him clueless when he's obviously not. And, most importantly, give him a full fudging 3 years to actually build something.

I guess what league finish would have been acceptable? A EL trophy and 8th would have been digested a lot better whereas finishing 17th clearly hasn't (including me). So a EL win and 10th place in my mind would see no questions to Ange's job. Statistically, that would have meant getting 18 more points though.

So when you package this all up for next season, what is the league aspiration? In fact, does it now become an expectation on Ange because of another chunk of money being spent on the squad?

The answer really lies in benchmarking our squad against the other club's squads in August. I think our squad will be about 5th or 6th best, but perhaps slightly higher. Obviously 5th is the CL cutoff point now we have 5 places.

The problem is that we have to make the Ange stick or twist decision this week really. We can't wait until August and set him his targets. I still think this will all be about how Ange responds to the tough questions. If he navigates them well, then he'll remain.

 

[DubaiSpur]

It sort of makes me chuckle that people are trying to make Spurs discarding the league a good strategy even though for decades the teams at the top have mostly won all the trophies on offer. Even this season, Chelsea and Saudi Sportswashing Machine picked up a trophy AND CL football by league finish. Even Palace were full strength to win our league game within a week of their own cup final.

We should probably know that there is a truth that we did weaken the league team. There is also a massive truth that we still put incredibly strong sides out but the tactical system wasn't working for the level of our players we have. That is why we're at this crossroads with Ange, not the EL.

So when it comes to the tough conversation between THFC and Ange, he is the one that needs to have good answers. He is the one that needs to convince his employers he has better football solutions for next season.

To offer another perspective, Crystal Palace and Saudi Sportswashing Machine each played 48 games this season on the way to their respective trophies.

We played 60. That's a full 25% more games, while having the 2nd-worst injury crisis in the league.

I wouldn't call a back five of Kinsky, Spence, Davies, Gray and Porro an 'incredibly strong' lineup mate - but that (plus Danso) is what we had to rely on for large and crucial parts of the season.

For context - We had the 2nd-highest minutes lost to injury in the PL this year, at 1553. Palace sit 9th, at 1041. Chelsea 15th, at 828. Saudi Sportswashing Machine 17th, at 779.

We had 41 separate injuries this year, second only to Brighton with 43. Chelsea and Saudi Sportswashing Machine are 14th and 15th, with 24 each. Palace are 17th, with 23.

Some of that, you can probably put down to Ange's tactics causing muscle injuries (haring around after the ball - we had the most distance covered of any side this season). But there's enough there to argue we faced challenges almost no other team did.