Who or what was the turning point for Leicester City ?

[Jurgen the German]

Many have said the same about many of Mourinho's teams - and he buys at the top table of players. There is more than one way to skin a cat in terms of method of trying to win matches. I actually think Ranieri will attempt to go full 'Catennaccio' in this econd half of the season, whereas i think Leicester have been relatively gung-ho in the first half (see the lack of clean sheets in their first 19 games). A tactic that could well get them over the line.



If they get 4th this season (which i think is a big possibility, even if i don't want them to as them being there is one less place for us to aim for) who cares about how similar they play to us? Many, MANY pundits felt we played very randomly when we got 4th and would "regress to the Spurs mean".
We were being poo-pooed then; just like Leicester are being poo-poed now..

I don't think we played randomly. We attacked teams from minute 1, especially at home. Apart from Peter Crouch, there was a lack of a plan B but I could see what we were trying to do as opposed to the managers that followed him in between him and Poch. Against Arsenal for example, we let them have the ball as much as they wanted on the wings but crouded them out of the middle. You might say that's just common sense, but if there was a lack of a plan than the players wouldn't have just randomly decided to do it without instruction.

On the whole, I agree that people are being foolish by writing them off. Look at Saudi Sportswashing Machine in 2011/12, they were neck and neck with us and the goons until the very last day of the season when they could have finished as high as 3rd. People kept saying "Ba will stop scoring", then it was "Cisse isn't that good he will stop scoring". Of course, eventually Ba was sold and Cisse did revert to his real form, but they didn't until the next season, Cisse's purple patch lasted the duration of that current season. Leicester don't even need Vardy and Mahrez to both play well, we all know that one player can carry a team. To suggest they will finish as low as 8th is a bit OTT in my opinion.

My head says Leicester will eventually fall away, but they don't seem to be slowing down besides a brief blip around Xmas. Their current form and momentum is just a big of an indicator of how high they will finish as much as their overall ability is.

 

[glorygloryeze]

Want it in simple terms?

They nearly went down last term

Erm, how about Chelsea last season...and now this season...

 

[Jurgen the German]

Erm, how about Chelsea last season...and now this season...

Or going back even further, how about Derby under Brian Clough who were promoted from division 2 then finished 4th in the first division the next season.

 

[glorygloryeze]

I don't think we played randomly. We attacked teams from minute 1, especially at home. Apart from Peter Crouch, there was a lack of a plan B but I could see what we were trying to do as opposed to the managers that followed him in between him and Poch. Against Arsenal for example, we let them have the ball as much as they wanted on the wings but crouded them out of the middle. You might say that's just common sense, but if there was a lack of a plan than the players wouldn't have just randomly decided to do it without instruction.

Perhaps the word 'random' was a bit strong/misleading. What i meant is that our approach and overall play after you take away the "attack from minute 1" was not always measured and was based on how our great individuals were playing at the time. Hence also a lack of a plan B, which hurt us most obviously in the second half of the 2011-12 season, the most "S.Pursy" many of us will ever see/have seen. One of the few cases that buck this trend in my mind was the way we played vs Arsenal in April 2010; that seemed a true tactical masterclass.

On the whole, I agree that people are being foolish by writing them off. Look at Saudi Sportswashing Machine in 2011/12, they were neck and neck with us and the goons until the very last day of the season when they could have finished as high as 3rd. People kept saying "Ba will stop scoring", then it was "Cisse isn't that good he will stop scoring". Of course, eventually Ba was sold and Cisse did revert to his real form, but they didn't until the next season, Cisse's purple patch lasted the duration of that current season. Leicester don't even need Vardy and Mahrez to both play well, we all know that one player can carry a team. To suggest they will finish as low as 8th is a bit OTT in my opinion.

Agreed

My head says Leicester will eventually fall away, but they don't seem to be slowing down besides a brief blip around Xmas. Their current form and momentum is just a big of an indicator of how high they will finish as much as their overall ability is.

I am hoping they do fall away, but it's based on as much wishful thinking as anyone saying "it's Spurs, they'll always let you down and fall away in the end".
For my mind, it's a case of those in glasshouses can't throw stones (us). A period of success (top 4, whatever) has to start somewhere and for Leicester that was maybe the first half of the season. It's like people using stats to say how Liverpool will surely click into gear at some point and make a rush to finish top 4.

 

[Jordinho]

Or going back even further, how about Derby under Brian Clough who were promoted from division 2 then finished 4th in the first division the next season.

They won the league after Clough got them promoted.

Clough's last season saw them relegated. They were promoted twice and relegated twice more over the next 6 seasons, finishing 3rd in the PL somewhere in between.

 

[glasgowspur]

If Spurs and Leicester finish in the top four what rule changes will sky bring in to make it never happens again, they must be bricking it.

 

[glorygloryeze]

AFAIK nobody has ever said that about a Mourinho team. One of the standout things about a Mourinho team is that it always performs to its metrics, come rain or shine. If there's a manager whose teams you can solidly predict, whose team consistently posts repeatable shots, goals, etc, it's Mourinho.

The exception being this season, although rumours are that that's more to do with players wanting him out.


Again, ignore pundits - they're not picked for their intelligence.

We were written off because "failure is the sexy thing to do" or something like that. I'm writing Leicester off because they are running at completely unrepeatable levels in just about every measure.

My point is that Mourinho's teams have won CL against the odds, and sometimes league titles or cups when they have given away many good shooting opportunities that the opposing teams have not taken full advantage of. Much like people are saying with Leicester. Mourinho can often set his teams up to do the minimum to win, and win lucky - much like Leicester perhaps....

There are many ways to win matches and ultimately, leagues. Those stats that show how 'lucky' Leicester are so far, could easily change in the second half of the season. Perhaps they'll take similarly few shots (but shots in more clinical areas) but then also concede more possession and concede less opportunities. I don't see how this is so outlandish.

 

[braineclipse]

My point is that Mourinho's teams have won CL against the odds, and sometimes league titles or cups when they have given away many good shooting opportunities that the opposing teams have not taken full advantage of. Much like people are saying with Leicester. Mourinho can often set his teams up to do the minimum to win, and win lucky - much like Leicester perhaps....

There are many ways to win matches and ultimately, leagues. Those stats that show how 'lucky' Leicester are so far, could easily change in the second half of the season. Perhaps they'll take similarly few shots (but shots in more clinical areas) but then also concede more possession and concede less opportunities. I don't see how this is so outlandish.

I haven't seen a ExpG analysis of those Mourinho CL wins. But there's a big difference between being lucky in a handful of games in a cup competition and being lucky 20+ games in a league competition and expecting it to continue.

Of course ExpG isn't a perfect analysis of luck. But I think it would be surprising if what Leicester is doing isn't partly down to luck/variance.

 

[thfcsteff]

Leicester are done.
Every small team in the league is going to go out and try to play for a point instead of the win they tried for in the first half of the season.
Their tactic of sitting deep and hitting teams on the break isnt going to work against teams looking for a point.

Absolutely. I have long felt that the moment a team plays a more patient possession game then their effectiveness is sliced in half. We have been very unlucky against them this season, bar switching off completely for Mahrez's equaliser early season we have shut them down repeatedly.

 

[glorygloryeze]

I haven't seen a ExpG analysis of those Mourinho CL wins. But there's a big difference between being lucky in a handful of games in a cup competition and being lucky 20+ games in a league competition and expecting it to continue.

Of course ExpG isn't a perfect analysis of luck. But I think it would be surprising if what Leicester is doing isn't partly down to luck/variance.

That could be said of any number of teams over the years that were 'up there' who the bookies didn't expect to be; Man Utd last year could be said to have been lucky most of the season, i wonder what ExpG would have said about them last year.

It seems to me a lot of people are jumping through hoops to belittle Leicester and where they are. I've noticed a lot of us have joined that band, perhaps to make ourselves feel better after we realise Leicester took 4 points off us in our two games against them..

 

[glorygloryeze]

Leicester are done.
Every small team in the league is going to go out and try to play for a point instead of the win they tried for in the first half of the season.
Their tactic of sitting deep and hitting teams on the break isnt going to work against teams looking for a point.

Lol; Leicester are done?? You wrote that just after they went top as well

We'll see; i hope you're right, but i think you underestimate their coach at your/our peril...

 

[scaramanga]

Where do you think they will finish? Given how inconsistent most teams have been, they don't even have to play that well for the rest of the season to get top 4. They can afford to lose at least 4-5 games. I can't see them finishing below 5th. Regardless of how bad/average we think they are, you have to factor in their current form and the momentum they seem to have. I don't see it carrying over to next season but as with Saudi Sportswashing Machine in 2011/12 when we finished 4th, I don't see them collapsing.

I expect them to finish top 5 this season with a chance of 4th.

Next season (barring massive expenditure from the owners) I think they'd do well to finish in the top 8.

 

[braineclipse]

That could be said of any number of teams over the years that were 'up there' who the bookies didn't expect to be; Man Utd last year could be said to have been lucky most of the season, i wonder what ExpG would have said about them last year.

It seems to me a lot of people are jumping through hoops to belittle Leicester and where they are. I've noticed a lot of us have joined that band, perhaps to make ourselves feel better after we realise Leicester took 4 points off us in our two games against them..

How would you expect them to do next season?

I expect them to finish top 5 this season with a chance of 4th.

Next season (barring massive expenditure from the owners) I think they'd do well to finish in the top 8.

They would be very smart to set a mid-table target for next season regardless of how they end up doing this season. Expecting to push or even stabilize after your best season in a generation is a really difficult starting point for a season and likely to cause a lot of problems (see Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Liverpool etc).

 

[glorygloryeze]

How would you expect them to do next season?

I expect them to finish top 4, at worst 5th. They may even win the whole thing....over the last 12 seasons whoever has been top after 23 games has ended up winning he title...gulp!

They would be very smart to set a mid-table target for next season regardless of how they end up doing this season. Expecting to push or even stabilize after your best season in a generation is a really difficult starting point for a season and likely to cause a lot of problems (see Saudi Sportswashing Machine, Liverpool etc).

Interesting...when we finished 4th in 2010 that was our best season in a long time as well; should we have set a mid-table target for the following season?

 

[braineclipse]

I expect them to finish top 4, at worst 5th. They may even win the whole thing....over the last 12 seasons whoever has been top after 23 games has ended up winning he title...gulp!

Interesting...when we finished 4th in 2010 that was our best season in a long time as well; should we have set a mid-table target for the following season?

4th or 5th for Leicester next season with European football? That would be absolutely massive.

5th, 5th, 11th, 8th, 4th... I think we were definitely in a position to aim for another top 4 finish after that. Very much a situation where the 11th and 8th looked like the deviation and 4th as a slight over performance compared to our expectations. It was our "best in a long time", but it was 1 position above where we finished 3 years before that... So not way above what we had done in a long time.

 

[glorygloryeze]

4th or 5th for Leicester next season with European football? That would be absolutely massive.

5th, 5th, 11th, 8th, 4th... I think we were definitely in a position to aim for another top 4 finish after that. Very much a situation where the 11th and 8th looked like the deviation and 4th as a slight over performance compared to our expectations. It was our "best in a long time", but it was 1 position above where we finished 3 years before that... So not way above what we had done in a long time.

Well i guess if Liverpool (who have more top 4 finishes than most) could be labelled as being smart to set a mid-table target for the season after they finish top 4 then anybody should!

 

[braineclipse]

Well i guess if Liverpool (who have more top 4 finishes than most) could be labelled as being smart to set a mid-table target for the season after they finish top 4 then anybody should!

Not saying Liverpool should have set a mid-table target the season after they got 2nd. But a realistic ambitious target for them was top 4, perhaps accepting that they might miss out without it being the end of the world. Instead it was all "league title, top 4 is easy, we're back baby".

Expecting to step back a bit after your best season in a very long time is essentially what I'm saying. For Leicester I think the step back might be larger. Potentially their first time in European competitions in a long time. And they really have outperformed any realistic expectation by so much this season that a solid step back shouldn't be surprising.

 

[glorygloryeze]

Not saying Liverpool should have set a mid-table target the season after they got 2nd. But a realistic ambitious target for them was top 4, perhaps accepting that they might miss out without it being the end of the world. Instead it was all "league title, top 4 is easy, we're back baby".

Expecting to step back a bit after your best season in a very long time is essentially what I'm saying. For Leicester I think the step back might be larger. Potentially their first time in European competitions in a long time. And they really have outperformed any realistic expectation by so much this season that a solid step back shouldn't be surprising.

Perhaps, As we all know Liverpool are Liverpool lol;
In terms of Leicester, they have a manager who is tactically decent enough that if they do get top 4, a "step back" might not be worse than 6th next season imo

 

[braineclipse]

Perhaps, As we all know Liverpool are Liverpool lol;
In terms of Leicester, they have a manager who is tactically decent enough that if they do get top 4, a "step back" might not be worse than 6th next season imo

"Might not be worse" - but might also be significantly worse. And from 6th to mid-table it can be super close.

For me at least expectations at least matter a bit. Setting them too high at a club invites a lot of pressure even at a small-ish blip in results.

 

[glorygloryeze]

"Might not be worse" - but might also be significantly worse. And from 6th to mid-table it can be super close.

Maybe, maybe not; swings and roundabouts. Whatever may or may not happen next year, THIS year they are on top after 23 games. Usually whoever is on top at that stage (based on the last 12 years) actually goes on to win the league....personally i think they'll finish 4th. I hope they finish 5th or below as that would mean we would have a great chance of finishing top 4 or even top 3.

For me at least expectations at least matter a bit. Setting them too high at a club invites a lot of pressure even at a small-ish blip in results.

Agreed