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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

monkeybarry said:
They'll use him to get through some more dirty laundry - anything uncomfortable can come out and be pinned on him, covid winter will be his to own so no-one else has to own anything difficult. Then he can be gone in March-April
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If anything I could imagine those with ambitions to replace him getting a bit nervous that it is all happening too soon.
Covid winter as you say, and there's still unfinished business with the EU over the NI protocol and with the French over fishing rights. Both need a bit more tub-thumping from Boris before someone else steps in to smooth things over/pick up the pieces.
I always thought he'd bumble his way through until closer to the election, but he must be running out of lives by now.
 
Glenda's Legs said:
If anything I could imagine those with ambitions to replace him getting a bit nervous that it is all happening too soon.
Covid winter as you say, and there's still unfinished business with the EU over the NI protocol and with the French over fishing rights. Both need a bit more tub-thumping from Boris before someone else steps in to smooth things over/pick up the pieces.
I always thought he'd bumble his way through until closer to the election, but he must be running out of lives by now.
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The more I think about it, the more I think it may be exactly when they want it to happen.
It seems a little early, but it's 6-8 months minimum to get a new leader in - you can write off until mid/late Jan because it's Xmas. Any backbenchers wanting to rebel against the new measures are emboldened to do so because they know any blow back from Johnson holds no weight and labour will support it, so it goes through.

They'll keep flogging him until winter is over and probably another round or two of Brexit talks, then anything they do can be explained away as coming from a low baseline created by Johnson - you can easily use that for 18 months.
If he were smart he'd step away now and leave them fall on their sword. Luckily for them his ego won't allow it.
 
Glenda's Legs said:
If anything I could imagine those with ambitions to replace him getting a bit nervous that it is all happening too soon.
Covid winter as you say, and there's still unfinished business with the EU over the NI protocol and with the French over fishing rights. Both need a bit more tub-thumping from Boris before someone else steps in to smooth things over/pick up the pieces.
I always thought he'd bumble his way through until closer to the election, but he must be running out of lives by now.
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But equally won't the likes of Sunak and Tugendhat be worried that Johnson will permanently toxify the brand. If they leave it too late they'll still carry his baggage into the 2024 general election, rather than having a decent innings for their own fresh start/governance period. I would think Brexit and Covid are done enough now that they won't need major interventions by a new leader/there isn't too much risk left with them now.

The interesting thing at this stage is the Heseltine rule - that the assassin never carries the crown. They now need someone without genuine leadership ambitions to stick the knife in and get a leadership contest running.
 
Gutter Boy said:
But equally won't the likes of Sunak and Tugendhat be worried that Johnson will permanently toxify the brand. If they leave it too late they'll still carry his baggage into the 2024 general election, rather than having a decent innings for their own fresh start/governance period. I would think Brexit and Covid are done enough now that they won't need major interventions by a new leader/there isn't too much risk left with them now.

The interesting thing at this stage is the Heseltine rule - that the assassin never carries the crown. They now need someone without genuine leadership ambitions to stick the knife in and get a leadership contest running.
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Definitely all in the timing.
And there will be the inevitable stalking horse. When we start hearing about letters to Graham Brady we’ll know there’s something in the offing.
 
Gutter Boy said:
But equally won't the likes of Sunak and Tugendhat be worried that Johnson will permanently toxify the brand. If they leave it too late they'll still carry his baggage into the 2024 general election, rather than having a decent innings for their own fresh start/governance period. I would think Brexit and Covid are done enough now that they won't need major interventions by a new leader/there isn't too much risk left with them now.

The interesting thing at this stage is the Heseltine rule - that the assassin never carries the crown. They now need someone without genuine leadership ambitions to stick the knife in and get a leadership contest running.
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Absolutely.
And we heard the first rumbling of a letter to Graham Brady today.
That's a scene setter in preparation for the vote on covid measures.
The first letter will go in either just before or after Xmas, with a drip feed through into early Feb.
New PM by May.

Edit - in addition to the Hesseltine rule; they can't risk anyone that comes out of the Xmas party investigation looking bad to be PM either.
Could be a very tricky pick for them.
 
Glenda's Legs said:
Definitely all in the timing.
And there will be the inevitable stalking horse. When we start hearing about letters to Graham Brady we’ll know there’s something in the offing.
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Stalking horses have not been a thing since Anthony Meyer. Hague changed the rules - letters to the 1922 chair, a VONC requiring a simple majority, and then either an unanimously selected replacement chosen by MPs or the full party electoral process.
 
monkeybarry said:
Absolutely.
And we heard the first rumbling of a letter to Graham Brady today.
That's a scene setter in preparation for the vote on covid measures.
The first letter will go in either just before or after Xmas, with a drip feed through into early Feb.
New PM by May.

Edit - in addition to the Hesseltine rule; they can't risk anyone that comes out of the Xmas party investigation looking bad to be PM either.
Could be a very tricky pick for them.
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Tugendhat is the smart one. He's kept out of cabinet and all the tarring that will stick with everyone whose been in that, and instead has built his own alternative power base through the select committees. He couldn't run in 2019 because he was a soft remainer, but that probably wont be a factor this time.
 
Diamond Lights said:
Thursday's by-election. Christ, imagine them winning the seat again.
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They will.

Diamond Lights said:
teflon PM
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He is. But even Teflon gets scratched eventually. It’s just how long we have to wait. And even then it will result in more of the same with just a bit less of the blustering incompetence. Until we get to a general election and hopefully they get a sufficiently reduced majority (because I think they will still win) to at least make scrutiny of what they are doing more effective.
 
Glenda's Legs said:
They will.



He is. But even Teflon gets scratched eventually. It’s just how long we have to wait. And even then it will result in more of the same with just a bit less of the blustering incompetence. Until we get to a general election and hopefully they get a sufficiently reduced majority (because I think they will still win) to at least make scrutiny of what they are doing more effective.
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And it is illegal (in cookware). I'm also not sure what my point is.
 
I cancelled my Conservative Party membership
They rang me today asking why
I said are you actually serious with everything that has happened the past few weeks and now party-gate I’m done with them until the buffoon goes
 
markysimmo said:
I cancelled my Conservative Party membership
They rang me today asking why
I said are you actually serious with everything that has happened the past few weeks and now party-gate I’m done with them until the buffoon goes
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And you think anything will substantially change when Boris goes? They will just replace him with another entitled elitist taco and so it goes and goes.
 
Gilzeantoscore said:
And you think anything will substantially change when Boris goes? They will just replace him with another entitled elitist taco and so it goes and goes.
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Agree, shame there isn't any opposition either really as we're stuck with them until somebody/another party emerges
 
Just saw a Tory Cnut MP saying that they should be allowed to continue with their moon lighting extra parliamentary duties because get this "they are human and they have families and they have lifestyles to support." The same clam supported a cut to universal credit. Saying "I know some will like the extra 20 pounds, but do they need it.?"
 
markysimmo said:
Agree, shame there isn't any opposition either really as we're stuck with them until somebody/another party emerges
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I'm a social democrat. Blair almost got there with his third way but that was full of spin and mandelson wanting a multi cultural society. (Basically immigrants will vote labour)
Lib dems are a joke.
Labour i don't even know what they are now with the influx of momentum.

Painful.
 
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