Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[richie_spur]

No permission from EU? Only wiki but wording seems quite clear

The treaties cease to apply to the member state concerned on the entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, in the absence of such an agreement, two years after the member state notified the European Council of its intention to leave, although this period can be extended by unanimous agreement of the European Council

It's far from certain unanimous agreement would be achieved though, although the uncertainty is helping a lot of EU countries hoover up businesses from the UK currently.

Of the three options, 1 will be taken off the table tomorrow leaving only extension or revoking of Article 50. If there's no extension granted there is only 1 option... and it has a minority backing.

 

[Rorschach]

It's far from certain unanimous agreement would be achieved though, although the uncertainty is helping a lot of EU countries hoover up businesses from the UK currently.

Of the three options, 1 will be taken off the table tomorrow leaving only extension or revoking of Article 50. If there's no extension granted there is only 1 option... and it has a minority backing.

It can be still no deal no matter the vote tomorrow, I'm sure.

 

[r-u-s-x]

It's far from certain unanimous agreement would be achieved though, although the uncertainty is helping a lot of EU countries hoover up businesses from the UK currently.

Of the three options, 1 will be taken off the table tomorrow leaving only extension or revoking of Article 50. If there's no extension granted there is only 1 option... and it has a minority backing.

They have managed to speak as one block until now, our divide and conquer hasn't had any effect.

 

[Baleforce]

It can be still no deal no matter the vote tomorrow, I'm sure.

Yep, still the default action if nothing else is agreed.

 

[DTA]

Yep, still the default action if nothing else is agreed.

Even if we are still commited to Brexit (we really shouldnt be). The smart thing to do would be to revoke Art 50 which as I understand it we can do unilaterally. And then try again with proper fudging plan.

Asking for an extension is putting the eu in control where as revoking Art 50 means we control our destiny

 

[P.D.]

Even if we are still commited to Brexit (we really shouldnt be). The smart thing to do would be to revoke Art 50 which as I understand it we can do unilaterally. And then try again with proper fudging plan.

Asking for an extension is putting the eu in control where as revoking Art 50 means we control our destiny

Apparently it's not in the spirit of the regulations if we revoke with the intention to use it to buy more time. No idea what the legal part of that is.

 

[r-u-s-x]

However, it’s important to note that the court added that the decision to revoke Article 50 must be “unequivocal and unconditional”. This means that the member state has to make it clear that it wishes to maintain its EU membership. This is not about extending the Article 50 process to extend the Brexit transition period beyond March 2019.

.......
Using it to extend would be open to challenge

 

[DTA]

However, it’s important to note that the court added that the decision to revoke Article 50 must be “unequivocal and unconditional”. This means that the member state has to make it clear that it wishes to maintain its EU membership. This is not about extending the Article 50 process to extend the Brexit transition period beyond March 2019.

.......
Using it to extend would be open to challenge

So if ask for an extension then decide not to leave (please happen). Do we get to keep the same deal that we have now (ie the best deal in the eu)? Or is it up to the eu?

 

[Rorschach]

So if ask for an extension then decide not to leave (please happen). Do we get to keep the same deal that we have now (ie the best deal in the eu)? Or is it up to the eu?

Revoking article 50 means the same deal as now.

 

[r-u-s-x]

So if ask for an extension then decide not to leave (please happen). Do we get to keep the same deal that we have now (ie the best deal in the eu)? Or is it up to the eu?

Same as now(even if we get an extension ) ... All as I understand it

 

[scaramanga]

No permission from EU? Only wiki but wording seems quite clear

The treaties cease to apply to the member state concerned on the entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, in the absence of such an agreement, two years after the member state notified the European Council of its intention to leave, although this period can be extended by unanimous agreement of the European Council

So we just revoke A50 and begin again in a couple of days/weeks/months/whenever the fudge we like, right?

I'm fairly sure that the legal advice had it as being entirely in our hands.

 

[scaramanga]

However, it’s important to note that the court added that the decision to revoke Article 50 must be “unequivocal and unconditional”. This means that the member state has to make it clear that it wishes to maintain its EU membership. This is not about extending the Article 50 process to extend the Brexit transition period beyond March 2019.

.......
Using it to extend would be open to challenge

So we don't tell them it's to extend.

 

[r-u-s-x]

So we don't tell them it's to extend.

It is a plan but I don't see May telling the country Brexit is over.

 

[Gutter Boy]

Even if we are still commited to Brexit (we really shouldnt be). The smart thing to do would be to revoke Art 50 which as I understand it we can do unilaterally. And then try again with proper fudging plan.

Asking for an extension is putting the eu in control where as revoking Art 50 means we control our destiny

Definitely. Do that then submit it again a few minutes afterwards. You've got to retain agency.

 

[r-u-s-x]

Definitely. Do that then submit it again a few minutes afterwards. You've got to retain agency.

However, it’s important to note that the court added that the decision to revoke Article 50 must be “unequivocal and unconditional”. This means that the member state has to make it clear that it wishes to maintain its EU membership. This is not about extending the Article 50 process to extend the Brexit transition period beyond March 2019.

 

[Gutter Boy]

I actually think May's deal is 3 words away from passing with a comfortable majority in meaningful vote #3.

If the words "or irreconcilable differences" are added after "bad faith" - i.e. establishing the principle of a no-fault deadlock that could be arbitrated on - that would seemingly be enough for the ERG and DUP

 

[DTA]

Fake, foreign and far-right: Dodgy accounts uncovered pushing Brexit agenda on social media


https://news.sky.com/story/fake-for...ToAj-aY5unLjiXA8Xg3TPnCE7UHkvdYekZF2PsYfmOwxs

 

[SpurMeUp]

Fake, foreign and far-right: Dodgy accounts uncovered pushing Brexit agenda on social media


https://news.sky.com/story/fake-for...ToAj-aY5unLjiXA8Xg3TPnCE7UHkvdYekZF2PsYfmOwxs

No doubt Russia playing cyber warfare trying to manipulate the UK.

It’s gone quiet on the £8m donated to leave campaign by Aaron Banks - the largest every political donation from a not particularly wealthy individual. In other words Russian money filtered through off shore accounts.

To tot up:

1. no one can outline the positives of Brexit yet, we just have to believe they are there. At least people can describe what unicorns look like. Same is not true for the positives of Brexit.

2. The people who tell us Brexit will have benefits also told us negotiations with the EU would be easy, quick and painless. If Mays deal had gone through you could add at least 3 more years to the 3 that have gone by to resolve just the basics of leaving; let alone dealing with all the fall out for farmers, cat workers etc.

3. All credible evidence suggests Brexit will make the UK poorer - whichever type it is. Hard Brexit being the worst case.

4. Brexit has caused our parliament to loose control, not gain it! After two of the biggest parliamentary defeats in history, our sovereign government can’t move forward and is stuck.

5. Immigration into the uk from outside the EU pushes over 250,000 per year while EU migration is just 70,000. Meaning Brexiteers effectively voted for a less white UK with people from afar taking up the immigration spaces now - and remember we control this immigration, no blaming the EU.

6. There is strong evidence that foreign powers ‘gamed’ Brexit and continue to manipulate with illegal funding from outside the UK and social media trolling.

7. The print media has a number of newspapers that are owned by moguls who have a set and clear agenda. Murdock, the Barclay brothers and the former Express owner dictate that the Sun, Express, Telegraph and Spectator all present an unbalanced case for Leave. This is not the same as the Guardian, FT etc which are pro remain but not controlled by one person with an agenda and provides some balance in coverage.

8. What we were promised for Brexit is impossible to deliver. Leave MPs want things that no MP would be able to attain from the EU. Voters were lied to. Brexit does not deliver value. If it did, what is it?

Considering the above, could you deny the UK population a vote now we have the details of Brexit?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

I'm pretty sure no deal is the default option on the 29th of March if they don't agree on anything else in the meantime. The vote tomorrow is just a shortcut straight to no deal is the way I understand it.

Assuming they don't do that, which is likely, it is a vote for extension or we're into options land again - referendum, off the shelf deal or bizarrely May's deal will still be on the table from a EU perspective.

The mood points towards a push for an extension but the extension will be short-lived because of the upcoming European elections. Everything has to be sorted one way or the other before then, which is the end of May. "We want an extension" will not be enough though. There will have to be a plan on the table to go with it. And of course each member state has their say on the extension too and some may play hardball, so an extension is not a given. If none of these options are taken it's no deal.

So I haven't a clue which way it will go but I do have a small window into how it is playing out as I work in tax and customs, and from an economic perspective it is a bit of a disaster for the UK already. Call it project whateveryoulike but it is going to be a brick show if no deal happens.

Edit: I missed the vote for extension which happens after the vote for no deal.

Yeah I was reading around when I got home last night and I make you right, I got the wrong end of the stick in the first place.

Of course, I dont believe an extension comes for free - I wonder what concessions will be demanded there, off the shelf options have already been discounted and the EU have said no more negotiation so...

Its no deal or remain, isnt it?

 

[P.D.]

Problem is even if the ERG support the deal but the DUP don't then the government collapses anyway as they will have lost their majority.