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Mitt Romney the next new leader of the free world!!!

One thing that always makes me incredulous is the constant proselytising of free trade from America and the West, whilst at the same time talking about how they can protect American / Western jobs and bring jobs back from China, India and co.

Romney talked about creating jobs in America through increasing free trade agreements, but when the moderator asked him how America could compete with the low wages of China etc he didn't even attempt to answer it. Even if everyone's on a level playing field, the hand of the free market will inevitably move low-skilled manufacturing jobs away from countries like USA and UK and to countries like China, Vietnam etc.
 
elltrev said:
One thing that always makes me incredulous is the constant proselytising of free trade from America and the West, whilst at the same time talking about how they can protect American / Western jobs and bring jobs back from China, India and co.

Romney talked about creating jobs in America through increasing free trade agreements, but when the moderator asked him how America could compete with the low wages of China etc he didn't even attempt to answer it. Even if everyone's on a level playing field, the hand of the free market will inevitably move low-skilled manufacturing jobs away from countries like USA and UK and to countries like China, Vietnam etc.
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Yes, that is inevitable. Its the flip-side of the trading empires (including the American one of the 20th century) getting their commodities cheap. Now the places which didn't get a fair price for their commodities are poor and can undercut western labour markets. We imported the benefits of global trade when markets were controlled by the western powers, leading to our greater wealth, and now its returning as the markets actually become freer. At the moment some markets are rigged towards the developing world because the corporations like the cheap labour. We can complain that the markets aren't fair, but its a kind of reparation. Some would say karma.
 
elltrev said:
One thing that always makes me incredulous is the constant proselytising of free trade from America and the West, whilst at the same time talking about how they can protect American / Western jobs and bring jobs back from China, India and co.

Romney talked about creating jobs in America through increasing free trade agreements, but when the moderator asked him how America could compete with the low wages of China etc he didn't even attempt to answer it. Even if everyone's on a level playing field, the hand of the free market will inevitably move low-skilled manufacturing jobs away from countries like USA and UK and to countries like China, Vietnam etc.
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Exactly, and this is why Obama was trying to push his "skilled labor" argument.
When it comes to our citizens, I think that many will be reluctant to learn new skills. There's jobs out there, just that not enough people seemingly want to do them. There's a dearth of skilled laborers that can work in manufacturing, but small businesses can't afford to train, so I think this is one tangible case where government can help create programs and incentives for people to train for new jobs at local community colleges.
 
scaramanga said:
It was mentioned on the Freakonomics podcast I listened to in the car today. The guy who analysed it had all but one state correct last election and tends to get just about everything right (where there are large sets of data like opinion polls).

He seems to think that Romney is sitting at 5/1 and has rarely been much higher and Obama is hovering at 2/1. If you see a discrepancy between his Bayesian analysis and the odds from the bookies then jump on it - you'll be ahead of the market.
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Am I missing something?

Romney 5/1 = 17%
Obama 2/1 = 67%
=> Other____16%

Perhaps Gary Johnson is the dark horse.
 
papaspur said:
Exactly, and this is why Obama was trying to push his "skilled labor" argument.
When it comes to our citizens, I think that many will be reluctant to learn new skills. There's jobs out there, just that not enough people seemingly want to do them. There's a dearth of skilled laborers that can work in manufacturing, but small businesses can't afford to train, so I think this is one tangible case where government can help create programs and incentives for people to train for new jobs at local community colleges.
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Its funny that those arguing for markets and economics determining policy don't see this. The only way of maintaining a comparative advantage is to develop skills and new technologies.

The switch to greener technologies and renewable fuels was a great opportunity. But the energy corporations have successfully repeated the tobacco industry campaign and blocked policy change. As a result both political parties in the US (Gore did nothing in 12 years while campaigning for and living in the White House) opposed Kyoto and any other approaches to mitigate climate change. The opportunity was lost as many of the green technologies are now being developed in China.

Meanwhile, China has also seen the benefit of sending students to western universities. The past two decades have seen a huge change in university research departments where Chinese and Indian students and post-docs make up a large percentage of the workforce. Many are returning home with their knowledge and skills.
 
scaramanga said:
As the data comes from opinion polls I can only assume that there's an option for undecided.
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That shouldn't be still present in the odds. There might be some undecided in the polls but they don't translate to a group that can win the election. Its either Obama or Romney (ignoring Johnson's tiny chance).
 
scaramanga said:
Not sure where you can so that. Probably Betfair specials, but is be surprised if the semi-pros on there haven't already used some form of Bayesian analysis on the opinion polls.
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I'm no pro. Just like the odd flutter. The prices you talk about aren't available anywhere. Maybe betfair. But I doubt it.
 
elltrev said:
One thing that always makes me incredulous is the constant proselytising of free trade from America and the West, whilst at the same time talking about how they can protect American / Western jobs and bring jobs back from China, India and co.

Romney talked about creating jobs in America through increasing free trade agreements, but when the moderator asked him how America could compete with the low wages of China etc he didn't even attempt to answer it. Even if everyone's on a level playing field, the hand of the free market will inevitably move low-skilled manufacturing jobs away from countries like USA and UK and to countries like China, Vietnam etc.
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I agree but wages in china have grown so fast that now low wage US states such as Alabama can compete with the 3rd world when logistical costs are included. This is the struggle for china and India. They are already getting uncompetitive.
 
jts1882 said:
That shouldn't be still present in the odds. There might be some undecided in the polls but they don't translate to a group that can win the election. Its either Obama or Romney (ignoring Johnson's tiny chance).
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You're right - ideally it would not be present in the analysed data. Unfortunately, the only data source is opinion polls so there's nowhere else to put those data. Even if those undecided voted for Romney, the polls would have to be way out for him to win.
 
Leeds Spur said:
I'm no pro. Just like the odd flutter. The prices you talk about aren't available anywhere. Maybe betfair. But I doubt it.
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Sorry, I wasn't quoting odds from a bookie - I was quoting the actual likelihood of each event happening (based on the best info available). Hence the fact that you should jump on any discrepancy between that and the odds offered by bookies.
 
Government doesn't create jobs government doesn't create jobs...I will create 12 million jobs!

Mitt Romney

Genius. It's quite a skill for a man to speak with his sphincter and make it actually look like his mouth.
 
Leeds Spur said:
I agree but wages in china have grown so fast that now low wage US states such as Alabama can compete with the 3rd world when logistical costs are included. This is the struggle for china and India. They are already getting uncompetitive.
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Romney was right about China devaluing its own currency, but large US-based corporations like Apple benefit from that because of cheaper labor abroad, thus giving Americans cheaper products.
This is the biggest problem. We expect cheap brick and throw it away 6 months later.

thfcsteff said:
Government doesn't create jobs government doesn't create jobs...I will create 12 million jobs!

Mitt Romney

Genius. It's quite a skill for a man to speak with his sphincter and make it actually look like his mouth.
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He also claimed he wanted to add more teachers to the workforce in the first debate. Which is something that he actually doesn't want to do.

I always say all politicians are liars, but Romney is exceptional in the arts of anal-ventriloquism.
 
Maybe he wants to sack them as teachers and employ them in Alabama factories. Don't forget, if you are in the public sector, you are not part of the workforce, but addicted to entitlement.
 
papaspur said:
Romney was right about China devaluing its own currency, but large US-based corporations like Apple benefit from that because of cheaper labor abroad, thus giving Americans cheaper products.
This is the biggest problem. We expect cheap brick and throw it away 6 months later.
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China is an easy target for politicians but Japan also devalues their currency to keep it weak against the dollar.
 
Richie said:
China is an easy target for politicians but Japan also devalues their currency to keep it weak against the dollar.
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I thought Japan wasn't a big player in the global market anymore, not on the scale that it used to be.

I know there's a whole other thread dedicated to taxes which I read through, and that only leads me to the conclusion that with globalization and now, the rise of global shopping/shipping, national borders and whom taxes are owed to are a bit blurry with regards to corporations. Some sort of reform will be needed so that everyone pays their fair share for whatever services they receive.
 
scaramanga said:
Sorry, I wasn't quoting odds from a bookie - I was quoting the actual likelihood of each event happening (based on the best info available). Hence the fact that you should jump on any discrepancy between that and the odds offered by bookies.
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Cool. If I say Romney for 5/1 I'd be all over it
 
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