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I aint no Sheikh-but lets talk weather

southstand1882 said:
Thank fudge for that. This weather is doing my dorset nagas no good at all.
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Slags! I've had a couple of naga curries around the south east and all was well and good. Had one when I was on a surfing trip in Bude and the thing took my head off. The chef actually came out to shake my hand, by which point i was crying.
 
WookieD said:
Slags! I've had a couple of naga curries around the south east and all was well and good. Had one when I was on a surfing trip in Bude and the thing took my head off. The chef actually came out to shake my hand, by which point i was crying.
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I'm hoping for a few hundred of the buggers this year. They are in some seriously big pots.

BUT WHERE IS THE fudging SUN??!?!?!><!><!!>!>!<>!<>!*&^%$%^&*()
 
Sheikh Ma Nuggets said:
I haven't had a chance to look at any weather data for a while chaps, so I'll take a looksee later on and see what the lay of the land is.

My general observation is that the current weather isn't greatly surprising/out-of-kilter for early June, ie: heavy thundery showers. Generally this is because the sun is reaching its strongest, and if you have low pressure dominant, then this greatly increases the chance of explosive convection through the afternoons. To turn this pattern, you need a pressure build - ideally to our south or east (north/west tends to bring in clear skies, but colder airflow) so - hopefully(!) - this is in the offing soon. Shall get back to you...
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Stop watching Homes under the f*cking hammer then ;), we'd have no hesitation in firing you...this is important sh*t
 
forget the tomatos my runner beans have all been destroyed my aspargus is looking a bit wrong but i dont harvest till next year so not to bothered, by pear tree has dropped nearly all its pears and they are not even fully formed and my plum tree is looking unhealthy.

Also to windy to kitesurf and i went for a ride yesterday evening and nearly came arse over tit a bit like how DHSF has sex tish boom.
 
Have had a look, and the data is just starting to turn in our favour...

At the moment, we seem stuck in this perpetual cycle of the upper level trough digging south and setting up camp right on top of us. That's what is driving these low pressure systems to spin in over us, and is suppressing temperatures. Usually, high pressure would - around about mid-May - build and fill, but that's just not really happened as yet. There are numerous reasons as to why, but there's a lot of upper level atmospheric disturbance being caused by the warming transition from La Nina to neutral or El Nino (currently a 50:50 chance) - this is what I was taking about when I spoke of Nina phasing. Although we don't experience direct 'extreme' weather as a consequence of El Nino, it does disrupt placement of energy, as we're all part of the one climatic cycle.

So what does the phasing mean for us? Well, ENSO transition (La Nina ~ Neutral ~ El Nino) historically translates to above average rainfall and below average temperatures, in June - translating to a more unsettled pattern. None of you need to have a degree in meteorology to recognise that we're very much experiencing this pattern, at present. I say "at present", because - historically - the latter phasing is more favourable for higher than normal pressure to build across NW Europe through the latter summer months (July & August)

What would this mean for us? Well, higher pressure building across us would force the upper level trough (the thing which is currently parked above us) to regress west and out into the Atlantic Ocean. This would allow for warmer uppers to flow up from the South; indeed creating a virtuous cycle: warmer air in situ would 'warm out' any threat of the mean trough reforming, therein higher pressure becoming the dominant feature.

There are teleconnections which are just beginning to firm-up on this pressure rise beginning to form around the last week of June, and into July. So, the cycle seems to be following the track which - historically - one would expect. As things stand, the signs for July and August are looking significantly better. For me, those are the traditional summer months, so I'd be happy if those months were pleasant. It's also a more favourable set-up for conditions to develop for very high temperatures, so that could be on the cards too. We're talking probability here though, so there's no firm guarantees of anything - this is very important to keep in mind.

We're still under the heavy influence of the upper trough though, and therefore under attack from some very abnormally powerful low pressure systems which are happily spinning in from the Atlantic. The last 3 days or so was one such system, and there are worrying signs of an even deeper system tickling our shores in around a week or so. Heavy variance at this stage as to its track and strength though, as building high pressure may significantly interact with it - ideally, for us, pressure builds significantly during the early part of next week, forcing the low to stall. However, if pressure doesn't build so eagerly, then this would allow this system to spin over on top of us.

Overall, an interesting - and one would hope transitional - 10-14 days or so ahead of us. It could well be that, in order to have a better chance of a pleasant latter summer, we have to endure this - quite frankly - horrible start to it. The odds are now turning in our favour, so don't lose hope just yet. What are the risks? There's a few, but the main one is either a weak or - like last summer - late pressure build across NW Europe. This is what fed our 'Indian summer' when late August, September and into October was very pleasant. It's all about timing really, but early signs of conducive conditions forming in late June would suggest an earlier move to more summer-like conditions.

Should have a really good idea in a fortnight or so where we stand on summer, but - at this stage - I'd say things are positive. And that's quite a statement to make when you look out the window and see the BBQ floating away and the chair flying into next doors greenhouse.
 
Thanks Sheikh. Glory Glory must have the best quality weather info for a football forum.
Could do with a classic summer 'like I remember from my childhood'.. Ahhh... '76, standpipes, ice cream vans and melting pavements. Those were the days. It's been mostly rubbish summers for a while now.
 
Melting pavements! I remember as a kid playing in the street and we found a little hole in the Tarmac one hot summer. A couple of sticks and a bit of perseverance and it became a decent sized hole. We then found a little piece of quartz in with the hard core, thought it was buried treasure and proceeded to dig up half of the street in front of a neighbours house before one of the parents found us!
 
Sheikh Ma Nuggets said:
Have had a look, and the data is just starting to turn in our favour...

Overall, an interesting - and one would hope transitional - 10-14 days or so ahead of us. It could well be that, in order to have a better chance of a pleasant latter summer, we have to endure this - quite frankly - horrible start to it. The odds are now turning in our favour, so don't lose hope just yet. What are the risks? There's a few, but the main one is either a weak or - like last summer - late pressure build across NW Europe. This is what fed our 'Indian summer' when late August, September and into October was very pleasant. It's all about timing really, but early signs of conducive conditions forming in late June would suggest an earlier move to more summer-like conditions.

Should have a really good idea in a fortnight or so where we stand on summer, but - at this stage - I'd say things are positive. And that's quite a statement to make when you look out the window and see the BBQ floating away and the chair flying into next doors greenhouse.
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So why did we have the 10 days of summer a couple of weeks back? Was that spell created by traditional warm weather patterns? And why has it been bullied out again by what i presume is the same scenario we had before the hot spell? Its all a bit sad really after the nice stuff. And those lows are heading straight for us, full of downpours:(.

Well if that low at the end of next week can stay far enough out in the atlantic to generate some swell and keep the local winds light then maybe i can forgive things a little.fingers crossed
 
Because I start a new job on 2nd July, I won't get a "proper" summer holiday this year. First time in ages.

Absolutely gutted that the weather is how it is here. Am into 2nd week off before that new job, and really hoped to get some warmth on my back.

Bloody country. :~

All I've got to look forward to is a 4 day break in Antigua for a wedding in November.
 
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