Frank Give him time or get rid?

[LutonSpurs]

xG doesn't become a meaningless measure just because people don't understand it. It's literally data points collected. What we have is insights which should take all data points available and use them to help make better footballing decisions as a coach.

I don't think it's a binary issue of xG bad or good. I think it's analysts being bad or good is the issue.

And data analysis has been my career on and off for last 15 years so I've got some skin in the game although not sports analysis.

 

[Muttley]

xG doesn't become a meaningless measure just because people don't understand it. It's literally data points collected. What we have is insights which should take all data points available and use them to help make better footballing decisions as a coach.

I don't think it's a binary issue of xG bad or good. I think it's analysts being bad or good is the issue.

And data analysis has been my career on and off for last 15 years so I've got some skin in the game although not sports analysis.

I think you would probably see then that some people are not just using xG(A) as a data point in the bigger equation. Some people are making xG(A) the bible that all arguments are formed from. It's no doubt a phase that the football world will pass through like all the others.

 

[Raziel]

I thought the first 25 minutes or so of our game against Dortmund on Tuesday were great. Just the sort of thing that we want to see from a Spurs team. The whole first half was great but obviously the last 20 odd minutes of that were against 10 men so a bit more difficult to judge.

I was a bit disappointed that we went a lot more passive in the second half, letting them push us back but I do appreciate we had a two goal lead and lots of injuries so need to manage the workload.

I'm hoping to see us give a similar performance to that first half against Burnley this weekend. If we do then I'll entertain the possibility that Frank has turned the corner in terms of the ambition level that he wants his team to show (trying to win a game instead of trying not to lose it).

Some combination of Frank realization, players up for CL and new coach added?

 

[afsoc4life]

It looks like we have doubled down on Frank .. oh well. COYS..

 

[Gazza Dazzla]

I thought the first 25 minutes or so of our game against Dortmund on Tuesday were great. Just the sort of thing that we want to see from a Spurs team. The whole first half was great but obviously the last 20 odd minutes of that were against 10 men so a bit more difficult to judge.

I was a bit disappointed that we went a lot more passive in the second half, letting them push us back but I do appreciate we had a two goal lead and lots of injuries so need to manage the workload.

I'm hoping to see us give a similar performance to that first half against Burnley this weekend. If we do then I'll entertain the possibility that Frank has turned the corner in terms of the ambition level that he wants his team to show (trying to win a game instead of trying not to lose it).

Exactly where I am right now.

 

[parklane1]

I think you would probably see then that some people are not just using xG(A) as a data point in the bigger equation. Some people are making xG(A) the bible that all arguments are formed from. It's no doubt a phase that the football world will pass through like all the others.

This without a doubt. its a stat that MANY folks read and place far more importance on it then it is worth. IMO

 

[Daisuk]

One thing I’ve never understood about xG is does it take into account who is shooting? The xG for a chance surely depends on what player is shooting and from where. A shot from outside the area is given a standardised numerical value but a shot from Kane would have more chance of going in than Gregor Raziak having a pop

No, it doesn't take the player into account. Some of the stats nerds did indeed occasionally argue something along the lines of "Oh, you're over performing your xg because of Kane and Son, and therefore you are actually brick" - so, ideally you should have only tap in merchants and never score a banger, just in case you over perform your xg - "you're relying too much on tap ins! Haaland only does tap-ins!".

I think that's the real kicker for me with modern football. Everything is analyzed (which in itself isn't necessarily bad, I guess) - but then interpreted by "experts" and commented on by pundits - and it's all just this one big mess of opinions, and everyone and everything is brick every other week, and let's have a fudging special with Gary Neville ranting on about Bruno Fernandes mustache not pointing upwards when he takes freekicks or Djed Spence making a mistake when receiving a throw while having his Tik Tok sister in the stands, and therefore he is an abomination of a footballer. Hell, even Haaland is supposedly brick now - doesn't do X Y and Z. One of the best, if not the best, striker in the world can't have a bad few weeks of football without someone having to poke holes in it to pass some sort of judgment. "He needs to do this! I got sacked after having coached Valencia to relegation for 3 months - I know things!". No one player or team can perform all the fudging time, even though we as fans obviously wish for it. Analyse that brick to death, but you're not going to find the answer. Life is complex! Team work is complex - imagine all the millions of variables we don't even see!

The pundits and "experts" just want to make money, of course, on their fudging "content" (GHod, I hate that word), and we just want to consume that flimflam, for whatever reason. I watch very little punditry and "expert" analysis, to be honest, but the few times I do, fudging hell, what's the fudging point? Whatever brick they are spouting is usually never relevant for more than a week or two, or relevant at all.

Ah, well. Each to their own. I just like watching (preferably attacking entertaining) footy with my ginger beer and see if we score any goals, have a little dance around the living room if we do. I don't give a brick if we scored that goal by pushing up the SBs while retracing the Garincha parables, opening up the middle channels next to the Alberqueque-stoops and having our 5's and 11's pickpocket the middle-space in the final Raziaks.

I don't mind xG, but all in all, who cares? Score goals and play entertaining football. That's it.

 

[SissokoWasGood (BoL)]

I think you would probably see then that some people are not just using xG(A) as a data point in the bigger equation. Some people are making xG(A) the bible that all arguments are formed from. It's no doubt a phase that the football world will pass through like all the others.

Completely agree with you. I think xG is a really interesting data point to consider. However I see even really smart people use xG as the sole data point to win their ‘underlying numbers’ argument and I don’t think that’s right. It takes into account the quality of the chance created, cool. But ultimately it is not overall proof of how well a team performed, or even what their intention was.

That’s why with Frank I’ve been trying to look at what’s the intention and how well do we execute against that specifically. And that doesn’t mean it’s just a get out for him every single time, but I think it does mean if you appreciate what he’s trying to do, then you can see how close or otherwise we are to doing it well. That should be the analysis. Not judging him on something which can only ever be one small component of the overall analysis.

 

[parklane1]

No, it doesn't take the player into account. Some of the stats nerds did indeed occasionally argue something along the lines of "Oh, you're over performing your xg because of Kane and Son, and therefore you are actually brick" - so, ideally you should have only tap in merchants and never score a banger, just in case you over perform your xg - "you're relying too much on tap ins! Haaland only does tap-ins!".

I think that's the real kicker for me with modern football. Everything is analyzed (which in itself isn't necessarily bad, I guess) - but then interpreted by "experts" and commented on by pundits - and it's all just this one big mess of opinions, and everyone and everything is brick every other week, and let's have a fudging special with Gary Neville ranting on about Bruno Fernandes mustache not pointing upwards when he takes freekicks or Djed Spence making a mistake when receiving a throw while having his Tik Tok sister in the stands, and therefore he is an abomination of a footballer. Hell, even Haaland is supposedly brick now - doesn't do X Y and Z. One of the best, if not the best, striker in the world can't have a bad few weeks of football without someone having to poke holes in it to pass some sort of judgment. "He needs to do this! I got sacked after having coached Valencia to relegation for 3 months - I know things!". No one player or team can perform all the fudging time, even though we as fans obviously wish for it. Analyse that brick to death, but you're not going to find the answer. Life is complex! Team work is complex - imagine all the millions of variables we don't even see!

The pundits and "experts" just want to make money, of course, on their fudging "content" (GHod, I hate that word), and we just want to consume that flimflam, for whatever reason. I watch very little punditry and "expert" analysis, to be honest, but the few times I do, fudging hell, what's the fudging point? Whatever brick they are spouting is usually never relevant for more than a week or two, or relevant at all.

Ah, well. Each to their own. I just like watching (preferably attacking entertaining) footy with my ginger beer and see if we score any goals, have a little dance around the living room if we do. I don't give a brick if we scored that goal by pushing up the SBs while retracing the Garincha parables, opening up the middle channels next to the Alberqueque-stoops and having our 5's and 11's pickpocket the middle-space in the final Raziaks.

I don't mind xG, but all in all, who cares? Score goals and play entertaining football. That's it.

That sir is one of the best posts i have read on for a very long time, if i wore a hat i would tip it to you. Well said.

 

[K.D.D.D.D.Soc]

No, it doesn't take the player into account. Some of the stats nerds did indeed occasionally argue something along the lines of "Oh, you're over performing your xg because of Kane and Son, and therefore you are actually brick" - so, ideally you should have only tap in merchants and never score a banger, just in case you over perform your xg - "you're relying too much on tap ins! Haaland only does tap-ins!".

I think that's the real kicker for me with modern football. Everything is analyzed (which in itself isn't necessarily bad, I guess) - but then interpreted by "experts" and commented on by pundits - and it's all just this one big mess of opinions, and everyone and everything is brick every other week, and let's have a fudging special with Gary Neville ranting on about Bruno Fernandes mustache not pointing upwards when he takes freekicks or Djed Spence making a mistake when receiving a throw while having his Tik Tok sister in the stands, and therefore he is an abomination of a footballer. Hell, even Haaland is supposedly brick now - doesn't do X Y and Z. One of the best, if not the best, striker in the world can't have a bad few weeks of football without someone having to poke holes in it to pass some sort of judgment. "He needs to do this! I got sacked after having coached Valencia to relegation for 3 months - I know things!". No one player or team can perform all the fudging time, even though we as fans obviously wish for it. Analyse that brick to death, but you're not going to find the answer. Life is complex! Team work is complex - imagine all the millions of variables we don't even see!

The pundits and "experts" just want to make money, of course, on their fudging "content" (GHod, I hate that word), and we just want to consume that flimflam, for whatever reason. I watch very little punditry and "expert" analysis, to be honest, but the few times I do, fudging hell, what's the fudging point? Whatever brick they are spouting is usually never relevant for more than a week or two, or relevant at all.

Ah, well. Each to their own. I just like watching (preferably attacking entertaining) footy with my ginger beer and see if we score any goals, have a little dance around the living room if we do. I don't give a brick if we scored that goal by pushing up the SBs while retracing the Garincha parables, opening up the middle channels next to the Alberqueque-stoops and having our 5's and 11's pickpocket the middle-space in the final Raziaks.

I don't mind xG, but all in all, who cares? Score goals and play entertaining football. That's it.

I prefer to use my own eyes (even when they're as bad as mine) to gauge how good a player, team and games are. Most stats have little context and just give pundits and their acolytes more chance to talk brick. You don't need to be Gary Neville or George Cole to know we've not played well.

 

[thfcsteff]

I see that differently and see the Pochettino example differently. I don't think sorting out the defence is when magic happens in attack. Both have to be worked on at the same time as part of a cohesive strategy imo.

Obviously improving our defending and getting fewer goals against was a vital part of our progress under Poch. But even in that first season we were also working on our attacking. Choosing better ball players over defensive solidity. I remember somewhat well the conversations around Mason and Bentaleb not being good enough defensively. But they played quite a lot and were rather good on the ball, they could progress the ball. That and being brave in possession was part of the plan that was implemented from the get go. Not as a second phase after shoring up the defence first by playing boring football.

I think the numbers indicate that too with the Poch example. Goals for and goals against improng at the same time. He didn't spend the first season sorting out our defending before then getting to the attacking and goalscoring. Season before Poch we scored 55 and conceded 51. Rather than getting the goals against down first he worked on a cohesive strategy that included both attacking and defending at the same time.

Think this comparison was made on the Athletic Spurs podcast. Comparing Frank to Hodgson at Liverpool. I've thought before Moyes at United. I think those are more relevant to the approach Frank has taken here (defending well first and foremost, then try to get the attacking working) than what Poch did here.

In fairness, another podcast said this at least a month before them ;-)