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Falklands

I don't see the point in worrying about the never, never though? You can waste an awful lot of time doing that, and still - ultimately - achieve nothing. Growth always tempers itself, but the premise behind your view, is that such growth will continue. It doesn't really work like that. As your economy grows, obviously you bring influence on that level, but the real influence is political - and Brazil don't have that yet; they're still seen as outsiders, as is China.

The United Kingdom has an extremely strong global stance, both economically and politically - sitting at the top table on both frontiers, and maintaining strong relationships with key global allies and influencers. A century and more of key foreign policy and collaboration has brought that about. Brazil's mid-term growth is dependent on its ability to align itself strategically with established 'blue-chip' operators like the United Kingdom - not act to work against them. Brazil's regional wealth will of course be respected, but whether it'll be welcomed is another matter entirely; merely having money won't be enough to open the doors which Brazil would want.

Brazil will need to re-establish itself geopolitically. The status quo, was that the Latin Americas stood as an implicit entity. As we are now, that 'bond' to the region would be counter-productive to where Brazil wishes to see itself; it has to see itself as a global player, not merely a regional one or, indeed, representative of a region, ie: Latin America. They'll have to lose regional friends, but the global ones they'll gain will be worth more to them going forward. But the political dialog which brings them to that fore is what Brazil has not yet finessed.

As I did say in my post, there are always going to be arguments for and against as to whether it is a never never to begin with.

As for the growth issue, Brazil is a huge player when it comes to natural resources, something that will always be in huge demand. The mature/declining countries whether they like it or not will require this to continue at their level.

As for Brazil's stance, by a potential siding with Argentina, this would not neccessarily be going against the UK. By diplomatic resolution, the islands may well be handed back before the UK loses face for example, thus the UK maintaining its image in an age of decline. Or a compromise whereby Argentina are given powers to benefit economically form the Islands should oil be of good enough quality. All hypothetical of course.

I don't think that is is unreasonable to assume that a compromise will take place of this nature to avoid conflict. In a more connected world than ever before its not in Argentina's interest to go to war at this stage for sure. However, my original point was that this could get messy due to the collective nature of social political aims in the region.

The region has a collective defence policy which was not around in 1982.
 
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It's a dangerous game that Argentina are playing. I wouldn't be so sure that the rest of latin America would support this as enthusiastically as they did their position on the Falklands.
 
Cheeky request, any chance of posting the article on here for those that don't subscribe tothe ft?

All the news streams are reporting it mate:





Argentina's President Cristina Fernandez arrives at the Mercosur trade block summit in Montevideo December 20, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Pablo La Rosa
By Hilary Burke and Helen Popper
BUENOS AIRES | Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:55am BST

(Reuters) - Argentine President Cristina Fernandez unveiled plans on Monday to seize control of leading energy company YPF, drawing swift warnings from key trade partners and risking the country's further economic isolation.

YPF (YPFD.BA), controlled by Spain's Repsol (REP.MC), has been under intense pressure from Fernandez's center-left government to boost production, and its share price has plunged due to months of speculation about a state takeover.

Until recently, YPF had a harmonious relationship with Fernandez, whose increasingly interventionist and off-beat policies infuriate critics. She praised YPF when it found massive resources of shale oil and natural gas in late 2010.

However, a surging fuel import bill has pushed a widening energy shortfall to the top of her agenda at a time of worsening state finances in Latin America's No. 3 economy.

Fernandez said the government would ask Congress, which she controls, to approve a bill to expropriate a controlling 51 percent stake in the company by seizing shares held exclusively by Repsol, saying energy was a "vital resource."

"If this policy continues - draining fields dry, no exploration and practically no investment - the country will end up having no viable future, not because of a lack of resources but because of business policies," she said.

YPF's market value is $10.6 billion, although an Argentine tribunal will be responsible for valuing the company as part of the takeover. Central bank reserves or state pension funds could be used for compensation, analysts say.

Fernandez, who still wears the black of mourning 18 months after the death of her husband and predecessor as president, Nestor Kirchner, stunned investors in 2008 when she nationalized private pension funds at the height of the global financial crisis.

She has also renationalized the country's flagship airline, Aerolineas Argentinas.

Such measures are popular with ordinary Argentines, many of whom blame free-market policies such as the privatizations of the 1990s for the devastating economic crisis and subsequent debt default of 2001/02.

Her announcement of the YPF takeover plan, however, drew strongly worded warnings from Spain, Mexico and the European Union, a key market for Argentina's soymeal exports.

Spain vowed "clear and strong" measures over what it called a hostile decision, while the EU's executive European Commission warned that an expropriation would send a very negative signal to investors.

Mexico's President Felipe Calderon said Fernandez's plan would damage chances for future foreign investment in Argentina and hurt YPF's controlling shareholder, Spain's Repsol, in which Mexico's state oil monopoly Pemex holds a 10-percent stake.

The U.S. State Department said it was following developments.

Repsol described Argentina's move as "clearly unlawful and seriously discriminatory" and said it would take legal action.

But Fernandez dismissed the risk of reprisals.

"This president isn't going to respond to any threats ... because I represent the Argentine people. I'm the head of state, not a thug," she said.

Venezuela, where socialist President Hugo Chavez has nationalized almost all the OPEC member's giant oil industry during his 13 years in power, applauded her move.

"Venezuela rejects the threats and attempts at intimidation from Europe ... and calls on all the sisterly nations of the continent to accompany Argentina in the exercise of its sovereign rights," its Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Fernandez's row with YPF comes as her administration heaps pressure on Britain over oil exploration off the disputed Falkland Islands, over which Argentina claims sovereignty.

INVESTMENT CLIMATE

A decade after staging the biggest sovereign debt default in history, Argentina has yet to return to global credit markets, and economic analysts said seizing control of YPF might make it even harder for the country to get fresh financing.

"YPF's expropriation does little to improve the already poor investment climate," said Ignacio Labaqui, local analyst for New York-based consultancy Global Medley Advisors.

Under the terms of the bill, the government would hold 51 percent of the expropriated shares and the rest would be held by the country's energy-producing provinces.

All of the shares targeted by the government belong to Repsol, which owns 57 percent of YPF. Repsol's Argentine partner, the Eskenazi family's Grupo Petersen, will not be affected. Petersen owns a 25.5 percent stake in YPF.

Fernandez said she had also passed a decree giving the government immediate administrative control of the company.

Speculation over a takeover has been weighing on Argentine asset prices for weeks, meaning Monday's news had been factored in by many investors. Still, U.S.-listed YPF shares (YPF.N) fell 11 percent before trading was suspended in New York and Buenos Aires.

The spread between the yield on benchmark Argentine bonds and comparable U.S. Treasuries widened after the announcement but was up just 2 basis points at 948 basis points at 2100 GMT, according to the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index, in line with the rest of the index.

ENERGY TIME-BOMB

Energy analysts say the government's heavy-handed approach is unlikely to resolve Argentina's energy time-bomb despite the discovery of the huge shale oil and gas resources.

"In the short term, I don't think this will solve anything. It doesn't mean that YPF's going to start producing more starting tomorrow," Argentine analyst Eduardo Fernandez said.

Argentina's hydrocarbons output has been in decline for years at a time of strong demand from industry and consumers.

Crude production fell 5.9 percent and natural gas output slipped 3.4 percent last year as power demand rose 5.1 percent, according to the latest figures from the Argentine Institute of Petroleum and Gas.

YPF's proven reserves of crude and natural gas - which do not include the new shale finds - fell 15 percent and 31 percent respectively between 2007 and 2010.

Massive, long-term investment will be required to bring the shale resources on stream, and the spiraling cost of fuel imports prompted Fernandez to seek a swifter resolution to the country's growing energy deficit.

Imports of fuels such as liquefied natural gas and diesel doubled last year to about $9.4 billion, playing a major part in eroding the president's cherished trade surplus.

Bolstering foreign currency stocks is especially important for Fernandez because she uses them to service the public debt, freeing up more spending for the welfare programs that helped her win a landslide re-election late last year.
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17739204
YPF Repsol: Spain warns Argentina of strong response Demonstrators in Buenos Aires backed the nationalisation of YPF on Monday


The Spanish government has warned it will defend its interests as a row with Argentina over the nationalisation of oil company YPF intensifies.

Promising a "clear and overwhelming" response, the government summoned the Argentine ambassador to Madrid to express its concern.

The majority stake in YPF is owned by Spanish oil firm Repsol.

Repsol shares fell by 8% in early trading in Madrid and the firm has vowed to demand compensation.

It said it would seek international arbitration over its 57% stake in YPF if necessary.

"These acts will not remain unpunished," Repsol executive chairman Antonio Brufau told reporters.

According to AFP news agency, Repsol will seek compensation of at least $10bn (?ú6.3bn; 7.7bn euros).

'Friendship' strained
Argentina's ambassador to Madrid, Carlo Antonio Bettini, is due to arrive at the foreign ministry at midday (10:00 GMT), the ministry told the BBC News website.

Earlier, Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo said the "climate of friendship" between the two countries had been broken.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is due to visit Mexico and Colombia, where he is expected to seek support for Madrid's position.

The nationalisation was announced to applause on Monday at a meeting between Argentine President Cristina Fernandez Kirchner, her cabinet and provincial governors.

Reading out a statement at the meeting, an official said YPF had been "declared a public utility and subject to expropriation of 51% of its assets".

Argentina wants to reduce its expensive energy imports from elsewhere, the BBC's Tom Burridge reports from Madrid.

Before rumours surfaced several weeks ago that Argentina might take YPF from Repsol, Spain and Argentina generally enjoyed good political ties, and important economic ones.

Spain does a significant amount of trade in the country, so there is likely to be an economic fallout to this dispute too, our correspondent says.

'Mistaken policy'

Mr Brufau accused President Fernandez Kirchner of resorting to nationalisation "as a way of hiding the economic and social crisis which Argentina is suffering".

Argentina's crisis, he argued, was rooted in "a mistaken energy policy".

He accused Argentina of running a campaign of "harassment" in recent weeks in order to push down the price of YPF shares and get a bargain price for the expropriation.

"It is not appropriate for a modern country, Argentina does not deserve this," he said.

Repsol's Argentine partner, the Eskenazi family's Grupo Petersen, has a 25.5% stake in YPF which will not be affected by the nationalisation.

However, Reuters notes that it is unclear how Petersen will be able to repay a $1.9bn loan provided by Repsol.
 
It's a dangerous game that Argentina are playing. I wouldn't be so sure that the rest of latin America would support this as enthusiastically as they did their position on the Falklands.

i reckon chavez will be with her!

crab - sorry, thought you got a few freebies. the reuters article pretty much covers it - argentina making herself uninvestable for the sake of populist nationalism = basket case economy (again)
 
Argentine political gambit #1

When its all going to brick, reignite national fervour over a lump of brick 450 miles off the most misbegotten part of your coastline

#2
When its gone to brick, continue to draw attention away from your inadequate leadership policies by sacrificing 650 of your servicemen by invading said lump.

#3
Resign, leaving your country as an international byword for political failure

#4
Get Madonna to make a film of the failure of your politics, using Tim Rice to do the lyrics
 
i reckon chavez will be with her!

Hehe - No doubt!

Calderon has already spoken out:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...ina-s-ypf-nationalization-regrettable-1-.html
“No one in their right mind would invest in a country that expropriates investments. This is absolutely a not very responsible measure,” Calderon said. “It is clearly in violation of treaties and accords about the reciprocity of investments.”

However, in the Commie's corner:
Venezuela, where socialist President Hugo Chavez has nationalized almost all the OPEC member's giant oil industry during his 13 years in power, applauded her move.

"Venezuela rejects the threats and attempts at intimidation from Europe ... and calls on all the sisterly nations of the continent to accompany Argentina in the exercise of its sovereign rights,"
 
Thanks WookieD and NW5pur, I really should use my own initiative to find these things out, shows how much attention I pay to the news, lol!
 
I think we need to get the attitude adjuster out

HMS-Dauntless-2_2124735b.jpg
 
wtf is she thinking?? She is asking for trouble even if our American buddies are neutral in this matter, it looks like its becoming serious.
 
She's sending that country down the toilet and doing anything she can to divert interest. 20% inflation, an energy crisis (due to the fact no foreign investor will go near Arg with a barge pole due to her protectionist measures), huge debt bills and to solve these she's now taking resources out of pensions and the central bank. They are gonna destroy themselves soon enough, last thing they are capable of is mounting any kind of military action
 
Love the Vulcan reference, that was some mission. Read Vulcan 607, couldn't put it down!
 
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