Florida is an anomaly I will give you that. But the correlation also takes into acoclam where the sanctuary cities are located, which I also provided.
Democrats desire to thwart mass deportations is because illegal immigrants are a vital part of their power base. Works the other way for the Republicans. They wanted them in the country when all that mattered was the cheap labour.
Illegal immigrants and non citizens still count towards the census which occurs every decade, even if they cannot legally vote. The census determines the apportionment of congressional seats and electoral votes. Because we have see vast numbers of citizens of blue states migrating to red states, it’s expected that the traditionally blue states are going to lose 11 seats and th red states will gain 11 seats. A 22 point swing that will on the Republicans favor with Florida now a deep red state to boot.
+4: TX
+2: FL
+1 AZ, GA, ID, NC, UT
-1: IL, MN, NY, OR, PA, RI, WI
-4: CA
It means that the Demoncrats could win all 4 true swing states (MI, NV, PA, WI) and still lose the election 265-273. They would need to swing a state like Arizona or Georgia that have voted Republican on only 1 of the last 7 elections (2020).