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The Fight to Qualify for the European Conference League 2020/21

To get Top 4 I think we'll need 70 points this season (and a bit of luck that others drop points). That means an extra 25 points than we have at the moment - that's 8 wins a draw and 2 losses from our remaining 11 games....with more weighting towards the games against direct opponents - specifically Leicester on final day, maybe Everton and maybe Man Utd.

Our remaining fixtures (current league position in brackets) and the * means that there is a potential Europa game immediately either before or after:
Woolwich* (10), Aston Villa* (9), Saudi Sportswashing Machine* (16), Man Utd* (2), Everton* (6), Sheffield U* (20), Leeds* (11), Aston Villa (9), Wolves (12), Leicester* (3), Southampton (14)

You can find 8 wins in there but it's a tall order and will require a dramatic upturn in results for the rest of the season. 25 pts is 2.27 pts per game; this season so far we have gained 1.66. We only just exceeded that level over a 10-game period when we went top in November. Also, the distraction of Europa League might present some problems.
 
Some people were saying at the start of the season when we dropped points at the final whistle against Spam and Saudi Sportswashing Machine "hey it's early days." There's no "early days." Points dropped on matchday 38 are the same as points dropped on matchday 1. Every single one counts. These two draws and the other two against Wolves and Palace thanks to our stupid, complacent game plan means we have 8 fewer points than we could have. Or in other words, us in 3rd a point behind Yanited with a game in hand. Really frustrating.
 
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alekaras said:
Some people were saying at the start of the season when we dropped points at the final whistle against Spam and Saudi Sportswashing Machine "hey it's early days." There's no "early days." Points dropped on matchday 38 are the same as points dropped on matchday 1. Every single one counts. These two draws and the other two against Wolves and Palace thanks to our stupid, complacent game plan means we have 8 fewer points than we could have. Or in other words, us in 3rd a point behind Yanited with a game in hand. Really frustrating.
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Whilst I agree with what you're saying - we should have had an extra 8 points from the games you mention....every team could apply the same thinking and conversely we could flip the argument on its head and say we took two extra points from City home game, that we only got the point at Chelsea because we were so defensive and so on.
 
billyiddo said:
pain in the arse putting together that run-in table when there's so many teams involved...
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Good effort. I was eye-balling the fixtures last night and with the EL games and Sot'on game to re-arrange, I thnk we'll only have 1 midweek off between now and season end (or was it none?)

Either way, its going to be interesting to see how we manage the workloads of PEH, TN and Kane between now and the season end - I cant see how they play all of them. Maybe we'll get knocked out of the EL or fall away in the league and therefore the decision is far easier. Otherwise, we'll have to find ways of getting them 20-30 min breaks towards the end of games. In other positions, I feel we have greater ability to make changes
 
ive been looking at the fixtures trying to see who has the hardest/easiest run in and where that will leave everyone and it's not good looking for us on paper tbh

applied a simple formula of judging the non head to head games :

Sheff Utd & West Brom as 3 point bankers H & A
City as a loss H & A
Aston Villa and below, 3 points at H, 1 point A

those points applied to the rest of the top 8 will have us in 7th with all the head to head games left to play - of which we have 2 away and 1 at home.



the next 3 games, Arsenal/Villa/Saudi Sportswashing Machine all away i have down as a point each as per the above so potential there for us to really close that gap if we keep up our winning form
 
billyiddo said:
ive been looking at the fixtures trying to see who has the hardest/easiest run in and where that will leave everyone and it's not good looking for us on paper tbh

applied a simple formula of judging the non head to head games :

Sheff Utd & West Brom as 3 point bankers H & A
City as a loss H & A
Aston Villa and below, 3 points at H, 1 point A

those points applied to the rest of the top 8 will have us in 7th with all the head to head games left to play - of which we have 2 away and 1 at home.



the next 3 games, Arsenal/Villa/Saudi Sportswashing Machine all away i have down as a point each as per the above so potential there for us to really close that gap if we keep up our winning form
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It might sounds obvious but when there are so many teams in the running for something, only very good/excellent form will mean you succeed. So one of the teams in the running for 3rd/4th (depending on what you're looking at) will probably take say 24 points from the last 30 available and one might take say 20. Its a short enough period that someone can realistically win 8 out of 10 games.

Therefore we're not going to get CL football from our league position by stumbling over the line. I think the 3 away games you mention, we probably need 7 points from given we're a little behind and have the EL to contend with too.
 
Robbo said:
I bet they will find a way to squeeze the Southampton game in between the Villa and Leicester games.
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We have a free midweek before the LC final but if that's not a possibility and we go all the way in the ropey league then we'll either have to play a 4 game week sonewhere or fit it in that midweek leading in to the final game.
 
billyiddo said:
We have a free midweek before the LC final but if that's not a possibility and we go all the way in the ropey league then we'll either have to play a 4 game week sonewhere or fit it in that midweek leading in to the final game.
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Yes, it'll be that final midweek - provides scope to potentially bring it forward if we get knocked out of the EL.

As I said elsewhere, provides headaches with managing Kane, PEH's and Ndmbele's game time
 
AdamB said:
Yes, it'll be that final midweek - provides scope to potentially bring it forward if we get knocked out of the EL.

As I said elsewhere, provides headaches with managing Kane, PEH's and Ndmbele's game time
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Thank fudge we're out of the FA cup!
 
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