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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Randomination' started by markysimmo, 27 Feb 2020.

  1. scaramanga

    scaramanga Teddy Sheringham Staff Member

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    That's the deal I work on. If anyone volunteers, they get to choose most of it (although I keep a veto). If I have to choose then we eat places I like and drink places I like.
     
  2. ricky2tricky4city

    ricky2tricky4city Johnny Morrison

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    Smith and Western it is then.

    :D
     
    scaramanga likes this.
  3. SteveAWOL

    SteveAWOL Paul Walsh

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    Indeed, sounds like Victoria’s private care homes have been hit even harder than UK.

    Hopefully the squabbling politicians have got things under control now so further lockdowns can be avoided and they’ll get around to reforming private elderly care sector.

     
  4. Mikey10

    Mikey10 Roman Pavlyuchenko

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  5. scaramanga

    scaramanga Teddy Sheringham Staff Member

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    Mikey10 likes this.
  6. SpurMeUp

    SpurMeUp Jack Jull

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    You do wonder...In less sophisticated times and places, viruses must/have spread organically. Making populations immune.

    There are no doubt rational thesis on other ways of dealing with this. Something along the lines of herd immunity. Where everyone under the age of 80 gets a small or light dose ideally to immunise society. In Africa and poorer nations, Covid must exist and it must have similar affects.

    The issue for the west seems to be the overloading hospitals and inability to properly protect the vulnerable.

    I think it is probably more complex, but if the waning Covid antibodies research is true, then we will have to adapt and change approach. As it goes I don’t read too much into that research. If we look at most other viruses, humans develop immunity the more they spread. Isolated hunter gather tribes were decimated by common colds in the Americas and elsewhere - in short populations that were not exposed to viruses became vulnerable.

    Societal controls were and are necessary. But mainly to buy time. What’s frustrating is how long it is taking to progress. We don’t seem to have measures to protect, track, test etc We don’t look like we’ve taken control or have an effective plan.

    It is a strange, impaired world we live in at the moment.


    Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
     
    Last edited: 27 Oct 2020
  7. awesome dawson

    awesome dawson Milija Aleksic

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    Ok so if 370 are dying A DAY without a proper lockdown and the right solution from some is to just let this go, in a herd immunity scenario, how many deaths a day do you think it’s acceptable to have?

    Not locking the down the UK about three months ago to deal with this is tantamount to a domestic war crime by Boris and co.
     
  8. Mikey10

    Mikey10 Roman Pavlyuchenko

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    The most recent research seems to suggest there won’t be any type of herd immunity. As plenty have been saying since the beginning, this is a coronavirus - and in all likelihood it will therefore behave just like other coronaviruses with which we are more familiar.

    So, we need a vaccine to give some form of protection to the most vulnerable. Without that life can’t return to normal.

    On another lockdown, I think there will be growing pressure on that front over the next fortnight. We are already at an average of 200 daily deaths, quite some way ahead of the predictions made by the scientists a month ago when they said we wouldn’t hit that figure until mid-November (and, at the time, they painted that as a worst-case scenario).

    The NHS is likely to start to really struggle before too much longer. That - and the desperation to salvage some kind of Christmas - may force the government into a two or three week national circuit break; although I’m sure they’ll be keen to dress it up under some other name.
     
  9. awesome dawson

    awesome dawson Milija Aleksic

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    Sooner people forget about xmas the better, its around the corner and without a Chinese/Spanish style lockdown, the death rate will be far too high. Spending xmas your family will be potentially given the a death sentence as a gift.
     
  10. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 Nick Barmby

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    Whats the plan C is a Vaccine does not materialise within 12 months or if it does its only 50% effective like the 2019 flu vaccine and still leaves the most vulnerable vulnerable? Do we still treat everyone else like collateral damage or re think the plan?
     
  11. SpurMeUp

    SpurMeUp Jack Jull

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    I guess the question is, how long do we wait in limbo? If antibodies don't last long, will a vaccine? Is Australia going to lock its doors for another year? Or longer if vaccines don't work.

    Humans have survived many many viruses. We are alive today because we have evolved through them.

    How long will we lock ourselves up, before a new strategy may be required? I don't really have answers just a few questions!
     
  12. Grays_1890

    Grays_1890 Nick Barmby

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    Exactly
     
  13. awesome dawson

    awesome dawson Milija Aleksic

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    The world is dramatically more densely inhabited now than when the Spanish flu etc ran riot. Plus we move around more often and more frequently and further.

    There's a lot of unknowns in life but I think with a fair degree of certainty a vaccine will be available for those who really need it by midway through 2021 so the UK really has to whether this storm/winter just as Melbourne did. I also think the odds of a vaccine working are decent. It won't be easy but one thing for sure is that having pubs open for people to spread it is unnecessary. Mandatory mask use in public settings makes sense, one person per household into supermarkets etc

    Australia will lock it's doors for another year if they have to, but at the same time people can still come here - they just have to pay for two weeks hotel quarantine which rules out a lot of trips I know. At the moment around 7000 people can enter a week and the cap on that goes up every few weeks. Once Melbourne starts accepting arrivals it will be up to 10,000 before long. UK could have easily used its island advantage but the actions or lack of them by Government along with the ridiculous summer of trips to Ibiza, packed pubs means the price will be paid now.
     
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  14. SteveAWOL

    SteveAWOL Paul Walsh

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  15. Legohamster

    Legohamster Jimmy Neighbour

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    It’s amazing isn’t it, 370 dying a day and hardly any flu deaths

    This is normal for the NHS for this time of year.

    30 percent of outbreaks are still in care homes and look at the age of deaths still, it’s almost if they sorted this out the deaths would drop.
     
  16. SpurMeUp

    SpurMeUp Jack Jull

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    Credit to Australia, they had a plan and are seeing it through.

    Geographically we are less isolated, but still an island and we could have done something similar. Germany, Korea etc show that controlling the virus is possible with decisive clear measures. The same issue will occur on opening up again though.

    If a vaccine doesn’t arrive in just under a years time then what?

    Over a much longer time scale the isolated tribes of the world were the ones who suffered most from viruses, sometimes wiping out peoples because they had no immunity. The ‘organic’ way is to let the young get the virus and let nature do its thing. We don’t understand it fully, but the chances are if you get Covid as a kid - possibly a few times - you are maybe not going to be as vulnerable in later life. Again we don’t know but maybe those who get Covid bad now are people who didn’t have some exposure to similar viruses previously.

    Btw a vaccine will give herd immunity. There are only two long term options. Nature or a vaccine. Will some nations be stuck, in a waiting for a bus scenario? We could walk but we waited this long so just wait a little longer...


    Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
     
  17. glasgowspur

    glasgowspur Frederic Kanoute

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    Is a vaccine not just an artificially induced herd immunity?
    ie dead or weaker strain to prepare body?

    Genuine question, not my area/yes I am that dumb/innocent delete as appropriate.
     
  18. Mikey10

    Mikey10 Roman Pavlyuchenko

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    It’s a good question - and one you might think the government would have some sort of answer to nine months in. Doesn’t look like it though.

    They’ve pinned everything on a vaccine. Luckily for them it looks very like they’ll get one before too much longer - and even one that’s partially effective to begin with should be enough to begin to get the world moving again.
     
  19. scaramanga

    scaramanga Teddy Sheringham Staff Member

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    Nobody credible has been saying that at all.

    COVID-19 mutates slowly and doesn't mutate very effectively at all. At the risk of oversimplification, its RNA has a sort of checksum to ensure correct replication.

    It mutates around the same speed as Measles, which has had a working vaccine and immunity since the 1950s or so.
     
  20. scaramanga

    scaramanga Teddy Sheringham Staff Member

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    That's precisely what it is.
     

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