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Better to be lucky or good?

I think there is definitely something to the idea that 'luck' does exist but long term luck doesnt exist.

Other teams have carved us up time and again and but for some good luck with a massive dollop of hugo we could have been on the end of some right batterings.

I think mindset has something to do with it too.
 
Having Hugo in goal is not luck. It is Spurs spending the money to get a top keeper and being a club which he wants to play for. When he makes one or two top saves a match then I take that the same way as when a player scores a good goal or makes a top pass or a defender makes a great tackle. He is doing his job. This isn't luck. It's having good players.
 
Point is that however good hugo is, we've had a huge amount of luck not to get battered by someone- not that im saying theres anything wrong with that!

Defensively we are still getting to grips with pochs system as a team.

Re confidence, solly is a great example. Its fair to say his confidence is far from great and that comes across in the chances hes not been putting away. Kane isnt the worlds best finisher but hes got masses if confidence this season and he has tried his luck on many occasions from seemingly difficult positions and scored some crackers.
 
superfaisty said:
Point is that however good hugo is, we've had a huge amount of luck not to get battered by someone- not that im saying theres anything wrong with that!

Defensively we are still getting to grips with pochs system as a team.

Re confidence, solly is a great example. Its fair to say his confidence is far from great and that comes across in the chances hes not been putting away. Kane isnt the worlds best finisher but hes got masses if confidence this season and he has tried his luck on many occasions from seemingly difficult positions and scored some crackers.
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Luck helps, but its more the adage of putting yourself in the position to be lucky.

Burnley game is a interesting example, if we were truly lucky, that would have been a repeat of Barcodes scoreline (how the **** someone didn't put in Lamela's cross?)
 
“@Squawka: Most chances created in the Premier League this season:

Emirates Marketing Project (238)
Chelsea (219)
Arsenal (213)
Spurs (186)
West Ham (181)
 
Very old thread.... came to mind after this week's events.

The last minute VAR decision that saved us being robbed of a famous qualification. Manure and the Arse both losing winnable games this weekend allowing to keep third place.

Let's hope that the slice of luck continues to the end of the season...
 
Maltese Falcon said:
Very old thread.... came to mind after this week's events.

The last minute VAR decision that saved us being robbed of a famous qualification. Manure and the Arse both losing winnable games this weekend allowing to keep third place.

Let's hope that the slice of luck continues to the end of the season...
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For the umpteenth time VAR wasn’t luck

United losing 4 nil wasn’t luck

Palace getting away with a penalty call was possibly luck But palace had more shots on target in the end and deserved the win
 
Most things in life are about percentages

- Two equal teams play each other, in theory a 50% win/loss chance (obviously not that simple, but play along)

50% is awful odds, so you would try to improve that by

- Tactics, fitness, preparation based on knowledge of other team, etc, each of those hopefully adjusting the odds slightly in your favor until you are the favorite to win.
- Over time you add buying/improving on existing players

To the original posters comment about riding our luck, and even the comments re CL games and VAR, no luck involved, we are a better team. My evidence

- Go back 5+ years and look at all the nearly games (us at United, Scum & Chelsea make good horrifying examples) where we gave a good account or outplayed them for long stretches and then one of their players would pop up and get a "lucky" goal. For years we took that as luck, it wasn't just as it isn't when smaller sides play us now, do well for long stretches and then in 5 minutes Kane/Son/Eriksen fudges them up and we win.

The only real examples of luck I can recall in the last decade (and it's more a culmination of coincidences) are Leicester's PL win and Chelsea's CL win, you play those over 1000 times and you will never get that result again.
 
Let's wait until City have played Utd and then we'll know.

If City go into the weekend too of the table then they'll almost certainly win the league and the answer is that it's better to be good. If they drop points to Utd then Victimpool will probably win it and it's better to be lucky.
 
Raziel said:
you play those over 1000 times and you will never get that result again.
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And what is that called?

Would you like to bet that if this weekend's games are played 100 times, a pair of losses for both the scum and manure would not happen more than 5 times in that series? So the fact that they happened to occur this weekend, when we had lost to the moneybags and would therefore have taken a big hit to our top 4 chances, was - hello, hello - an episode of massive luck.

If we played bricky again a 100 times and Eriksen repeats the suicidal back pass every time, what bets that Aguero would have managed to play himself onside 90 times out of them? For someone to try to be logical in terms of a foot of difference between a goal and an offside call - with the coincidence of a VAR assessment being available - is frankly being disingenuous.

Yes luck favours the brave and the better prepared; but the freak coincidence of these two events over the past week was a pure slice of luck - which we more than deserve after being shafted by the lady umpteen times in the past....
 
Maltese Falcon said:
And what is that called?

Would you like to bet that if this weekend's games are played 100 times, a pair of losses for both the scum and manure would not happen more than 5 times in that series? So the fact that they happened to occur this weekend, when we had lost to the moneybags and would therefore have taken a big hit to our top 4 chances, was - hello, hello - an episode of massive luck.

If we played bricky again a 100 times and Eriksen repeats the suicidal back pass every time, what bets that Aguero would have managed to play himself onside 90 times out of them? For someone to try to be logical in terms of a foot of difference between a goal and an offside call - with the coincidence of a VAR assessment being available - is frankly being disingenuous.

Yes luck favours the brave and the better prepared; but the freak coincidence of these two events over the past week was a pure slice of luck - which we more than deserve after being shafted by the lady umpteen times in the past....
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I understand what you are saying, but the odds of a one off/one week-end event happening are very different to that of full season, full CL campaign.

Hence usually the statement of "it evens itself out over course of season or campaign" it didn't for Leicester of Chelsea, vs. United this season in CL, a couple of very one off results with a revert back to norm against Barca.

But if it's luck that gets us there or not, either way I will take it ...
 
You cannot be fitter and have gamemanship if you are not around. Therefore luck is more related to stuff that is out of your control, for example the results in other games.
 
Yesterday's game highlighted people's view around luck.

Lots of pundits/opposition fans would say Brighton were unlucky not to be able to hold out another 7 minutes or so.

Reality is they offered no threat, allowed our entire team to camp out in their half and made a choice to make Spurs have to shoot more from distance vs. finding space. The quality of Spurs shooting in the end won the game, not luck.
 
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