There is no Fink Tank column that makes me more nervous than the one announcing our player of the season. But also few that I enjoy more.
When we do ordinary probabilities, I am robustly confident. The same goes for our explosion of footballing myths. This week I told a legend of the game that the worst time to concede a goal was not just before half-time.
And he replied that it was the worst time, because the manager would shout at him in the dressing room.
But from experience I know that measuring performance is hard and that people get very cross about the outcome.
Nevertheless, the work we do with Castrol on player ranking is intriguing because, while I can often (not always) spot the player of the year before looking at the figures, it usually shines a light on players whose contribution I should have appreciated but didn’t.
Dr Henry Stott, Dr Mark Latham and Gabriella Lebrecht have been looking at every move made on the field and relating them to the contribution they make to goals scored and defended.
In Europe, Cristiano Ronaldo, of Real Madrid, has overtaken Lionel Messi, his rival at Barcelona.
The system measures players per minute, showing the contribution made. This demonstrates the ability of Emirates Marketing Project players, with five (David Silva, Vincent Kompany, Yaya Touré, Carlos Tévez and Pablo Zabaleta) in the top ten. Chelsea have only one player in the top 20, but Demba Ba picked up most of his ranking points while he was at Saudi Sportswashing Machine.
Oddly, Juan Mata is only 24th and Eden Hazard, his team-mate at Chelsea, 62nd on this measure.
But for the player of the season we use total contribution rather than per minute, because getting on the pitch is part of it.
This measure shoots Steven Gerrard, the Liverpool and England captain, up to fourth (from twelfth), which is one of his highest positions. Gareth Bale, of Tottenham Hotspur, drops from third per minute to seventh because he has played less than others.
Leon Osman, of Everton, and Leighton Baines, his team-mate, are up there. And it is clear that there hasn’t been enough talk about Santi Cazorla, because he finishes third for his efforts with Arsenal.
The Fink Tank numbers care if you have been sent off because you can’t score goals while not playing. But the numbers don’t make moral judgments.
The runner-up is Robin van Persie, such a hit in his first year with Manchester United, and the Fink Tank Player of the Season 2012-13? Luis Suárez.