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Politics, politics, politics

Indeed. Wanting a hard brexit over a soft one really shows people are still in denial of the brick show that is about to unleashed for the next few years and maybe longer. It will be chaos from day one. 750 treaties gone in a blink. If it gets past Xmas then it will be panic preparations for hard brexit and nothing else. They have left everything too late.
 
The way I see things now - you have the head bangers who are entrenched in their anti-EU position, and then you have the rest of the people who will be able to weigh up the pros and cons of various exit options. You can't blame the head bangers, they have been fervantly trying to argue to leave the EU for at least 3 years. Their arguements, their beliefs, the world view they have developed, is ingrained to say the least. How could you possibly admit you got it so wrong? You couldn't. But...these intransigents are about to be in a minority.

They already were really. 17.4m voted to leave. 16.1 to remain. Here is the thing that is never talked about - half of the UKs 66m population did not vote. Maybe these people didn't know enough or understand enough to feel they should vote. And they would have been smart to think that, because the rest of the country sure as hell didn't understand all the nuances of Ireland, FTAs, customs checks, food and medical supplies etc. 48.6m people did not vote for Brexit. A minority did.
 
Wipe the slate clean. Forget the votes, the failed politicians, slogans etc Where are we now, what options do we have?

We have various Soft Brexit configerations which deliver no real value to the UK but doesn't harm us too much, it leaves Remainers and Leavers unhappy. It delivers the UK less sovereignty, we lose control rather than gain control. But you might argue the Swiss have it, and they aren't too bad off. I would expect the Swiss model more or less.

Or we have Hard, no deal, Brexit. Which if we're honest is Leavers enforced position. They were all so sure we'd negotiate free trade with the EU on our terms and we wouldn't leave the EU with 'no deal'. We'd be equal in negotiations and get our way. Germany, BMW, Mercades would see to that. We can safely say these proclimations were indeed a fiction (and its not May's incompetence, we actually didn't have the position some thought we had - if we are honest).

The greatest asset of Hard Brexit is that it still has the illusion of bright prospects. It offers vision. But as soon as you are realistic about no deal Brexit, what that means for the nation, for jobs, for Government revenue and spending, for the UKs prospects as a great nation, for your own quality of life...a no deal Brexit shatters. Only those with elite wealth win from no deal Brexit as the UK regresses; as a nation we'd be set on a path to be relegated to the second tier.
 
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Rorschach said:
Chance of hard brexit is rising daily. I'd say it is more likely than not now.
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The more I think about it, the more I think its the least likely thing to happen.

Milo puts it well, but also look at what I said yesterday - our politicians havent the stomach for it. IMHO there will be a Peoples Vote long before a Hard Brexit, its a magic bullet to save them all.

Most likely itll be rolled into a general election. May seems set on pushing her deal/no deal. She will fail and fall. New leadership in the Tories, with Labour competing for the premiership promising a vote = Tories will also promise a vote (maybe begrudingly, "Will of the people", and that).

It suits them all. And, should it go their way (which Id expect) they get to pretend it never happened and not actually go through with all their talk.


the dza said:
IMO, The EU would prefer that we never left. But as we are where we are, the next best option from their point of view is for us to be closely aligned, with a customs union and some sort of single market arrangement/alignment. They have already indicated a willingness to extend article 50, I don't think that would be a problem should we elect a new government. I'm not passionately pro-EU, but it strikes me as the least worst option to stay close to them. In or out of the EU, I want a Labour Government.

And I don't think you are trying to start a row, but don't worry if you do, this is politics! :D

*edit -- I agree with you that a deal on immigration is unlikely (should we want a very close arrangement/whatever we want to call it). The difference is, if Labour are elected to government, this would not be a problem for Labour in terms of the votes of their MPs. The Tory Party have to have this as a red line because of the make-up of their party.
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Thanks, I appreciate you taking me in good faith, sometimes its easy to miss that part of a conversation/intention on a message board.

To be honest, I still sense a degree of wishful thinking in what you say, rather than pragmatism.

So far in negotiations we have made virtually every concession they demand, what is so different about your proposed Labour deal? Im not seeing it to be honest (and it is entirely possible "Im not seeing it" - Ive missed it completely!).

I would assume Labour would want to start again. They would not want to take up from when the Tories left off. Are we talking re-negotiation of the divorce bill onward?

I cant work out why the EU would go through all the song and dance a second time, rather than just pushing ahead now. What is the big win you propose over our current situation?


And I do also think Labour will need to offer some promises around immigration. If Im not mistaken Im pretty sure Corbyn has recognised it is an issue, at least for many, and Im sure he will want their votes too. If all he does is pander to the already Labour leaning he will end up creating a sizeable divide along those lines.

Dont forget, he lost the last election against a terribly weak Conservative party, while Id assume he would win the next - it might not be the landslide you hope. We could end up bogged down for years with a situation like now, neither with a real majority. If Corbyn is smart he will pull across as many as he can now, and that means doing "something" with immigration.


Rorschach said:
Indeed. Wanting a hard brexit over a soft one really shows people are still in denial of the brick show that is about to unleashed for the next few years and maybe longer. It will be chaos from day one. 750 treaties gone in a blink. If it gets past Xmas then it will be panic preparations for hard brexit and nothing else. They have left everything too late.
Click to expand...

Soft Brexit, for me, simply isnt an option. Its a fudging ridiculous notion that will leave us worse off than now in perpetuity.

Hard Brexit, Im in no denial as to absolute clusterfudge itll be. My thinking is though, its preferable to soft brexit. Hard will, in time, hopefully(!) give us some proper politicians and proper drive and motivation. Id take a terrible period if, on the other side of it, we werent the bloated mess we are now.

That said, I genuinely dont think Hard Brexit is even on the cards, in all honesty.
 
nayimfromthehalfwayline said:
The more I think about it, the more I think its the least likely thing to happen.

Milo puts it well, but also look at what I said yesterday - our politicians havent the stomach for it. IMHO there will be a Peoples Vote long before a Hard Brexit, its a magic bullet to save them all.

Most likely itll be rolled into a general election. May seems set on pushing her deal/no deal. She will fail and fall. New leadership in the Tories, with Labour competing for the premiership promising a vote = Tories will also promise a vote (maybe begrudingly, "Will of the people", and that).

It suits them all. And, should it go their way (which Id expect) they get to pretend it never happened and not actually go through with all their talk.





Thanks, I appreciate you taking me in good faith, sometimes its easy to miss that part of a conversation/intention on a message board.

To be honest, I still sense a degree of wishful thinking in what you say, rather than pragmatism.

So far in negotiations we have made virtually every concession they demand, what is so different about your proposed Labour deal? Im not seeing it to be honest (and it is entirely possible "Im not seeing it" - Ive missed it completely!).

I would assume Labour would want to start again. They would not want to take up from when the Tories left off. Are we talking re-negotiation of the divorce bill onward?

I cant work out why the EU would go through all the song and dance a second time, rather than just pushing ahead now. What is the big win you propose over our current situation?


And I do also think Labour will need to offer some promises around immigration. If Im not mistaken Im pretty sure Corbyn has recognised it is an issue, at least for many, and Im sure he will want their votes too. If all he does is pander to the already Labour leaning he will end up creating a sizeable divide along those lines.

Dont forget, he lost the last election against a terribly weak Conservative party, while Id assume he would win the next - it might not be the landslide you hope. We could end up bogged down for years with a situation like now, neither with a real majority. If Corbyn is smart he will pull across as many as he can now, and that means doing "something" with immigration.




Soft Brexit, for me, simply isnt an option. Its a fudging ridiculous notion that will leave us worse off than now in perpetuity.

Hard Brexit, Im in no denial as to absolute clusterfudge itll be. My thinking is though, its preferable to soft brexit. Hard will, in time, hopefully(!) give us some proper politicians and proper drive and motivation. Id take a terrible period if, on the other side of it, we werent the bloated mess we are now.

That said, I genuinely dont think Hard Brexit is even on the cards, in all honesty.
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I think you could be right on no hard brexit. RTE are reporting a breakthrough with the withdrawal agreement text.

(edit: DUP haven't seen it yet though)
 
Rorschach said:
I think you could be right on no hard brexit. RTE are reporting a breakthrough with the withdrawal agreement text.

(edit: DUP haven't seen it yet though)
Click to expand...

Will be interesting to see what that may be.

I think the general expectation is that it will be suitably vague so as to not mean anything tangible but get us over this stage of things.

Regardless, I still firmly believe our politicians (of all colour ties) dont have the stomach for Hard Brexit and will actively pursue the get out of jail free card the peoples vote offers long before it comes close to reality.
 
BBC - same reporting as RTE?

A "small number of outstanding issues" stand in the way of a Brexit agreement, Downing Street has said after Theresa May updated her cabinet on the talks.

There remains "optimism on both sides", government sources have said, as negotiations continue in Brussels.

But Trade Secretary Liam Fox told the BBC "difficult discussions" were still going on about the Irish border issue.

Ministers, meanwhile, have said they will publish a "full legal statement" before MPs vote on any agreement.

The undertaking was given as the government faced near certain defeat in the Commons over whether to publish the legal advice it gets about the terms of the UK's withdrawal.

The Democratic Unionists, on whom the PM relies for her Commons majority, said they would vote for Labour's motion urging disclosure of "the full and final advice" given by Attorney General Geoffrey Cox to the cabinet.

An influential group of Tory Brexiteers also said they would not oppose the move, which was later passed unopposed in the Commons.

During a 45-minute discussion on Brexit, the cabinet were briefed on the state of the negotiations, as well as planning for different scenarios ahead of the UK's scheduled exit on 29 March, 2019.

No 10 said the prime minister had told colleagues progress had been made since the last cabinet meeting a week ago but there were a "small number of outstanding issues as the UK pushes for the best text" and work was continuing.

The BBC's Norman Smith said it was thought the only "substantive" area of disagreement left was over the mechanism for the UK to exit the proposed "backstop" customs arrangement - referring to the fallback plans to guarantee there will be no new visible checks on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

On Monday night, some cabinet ministers met for drinks in Mr Fox's office to discuss Brexit, including no-deal plans and the Irish "backstop".

Mr Fox told the BBC's Iain Watson there were "still issues" with the backstop and negotiators were having a "number of difficult discussions".

The prime minister is under pressure from both Brexiteers and pro-EU MPs as she tries to seal a deal with the EU on the terms for the UK's exit,

Both the UK and EU want to schedule a special summit of European leaders at the end of November to sign off the withdrawal deal, but time is running out.

Brussels says it will only agree to put the wheels in motion for the summit if agreement can be reached on the issue of the Irish border.

If a deal can be reached with the EU in time, Mrs May will then need to persuade her party - and the rest of Parliament - to support it in a key Commons vote.

Following pressure from all sides of the House of Commons, ministers have agreed to provide MPs with a legal assessment of the implications for the UK of the backstop and other controversial aspects of any deal.

Cabinet Office minister David Lidington said Mr Cox, who is the government's senior legal adviser, would make a statement to MPs and take questions ahead of the final vote on any Brexit deal.

MPs, he said, would get to see "a full reasoned position statement laying out the government's both political and also legal position on the proposed withdrawal agreement".

The concession reflects the wording of a compromise amendment supported by a number of Tory members of the European Research Group which was not selected for debate.

The DUP's Westminster leader Nigel Dodds said he was pleased Parliament had "asserted its will" as it was imperative that all parties to the deal were clear in what way and for how long it would "legally bind" the UK.

In a speech on Monday evening, Mrs May said the "endgame" in the negotiations had been reached and while both sides wanted an agreement, the issues at stake were "immensely difficult".

But Boris Johnson, who quit as foreign secretary in July in protest at Theresa May's strategy, hit out at what he claimed was a "stage-managed delay" in reaching an agreement.


BBC Brussels reporter Adam Fleming

The negotiating teams stayed up late again, but not as late as on Sunday. At issue is the mechanism for terminating the Northern Irish backstop - if it's ever used.

Should it be a decision for the EU-UK joint committee that will be set up to manage the Brexit treaty or for a separate arbitration panel where UK and EU representatives would be joined by an independent figure from somewhere else?

There is also a tussle within the EU27 over Britain's idea for a UK-wide customs arrangement as an alternative to the EU's Northern Ireland-only option.

Some member states see this as giving access to the single market, which should be accompanied by guarantees on other things such as fishing rights and environmental standards.

The European Commission has tried to reassure them, saying it is still only an insurance policy - not the final trade deal - and that it's just a way to get the British cabinet to approve the Brexit treaty.
 
Found it, RTE a little more to say

EU and UK negotiators have agreed on a text that deals with the Irish border, RTÉ News understands.

The text was agreed at around 9pm last night and then transmitted to Downing Street.

While two well-placed sources have confirmed that the text was "as stable as it can be", they say it would not be correct to say that the negotiations have "concluded".

According to both sources, there will be one backstop to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.

The backstop will come in the form of a temporary UK-wide customs arrangement, with specific provisions for Northern Ireland, which go deeper on the issue of customs and alignment on the rules of the single market than for the rest of the UK.

It is understood the text has an agreed review mechanism.

While the text is regarded as "stable", it is understood there is further shuttling between London and Brussels.

RTÉ News understands that while the main backstop focuses on a UK-wide customs arrangement, there will be specific provisions within the text and within annexes for Northern Ireland, should the UK-wide arrangement not prove sufficient to avoid a hard border.

Leo Varadkar was asked during Taoiseach's Questions in the Dáil to comment on reports that the EU and UK had agreed a text on the border.

He said as he had been in chamber for the last two to three hours he had not had a chance to speak to his officials.
 
Essentially the next step in the process is the withdrawal agreement, which specifies our intentions on future relationship.

So its a map for Brexit, effectively.

ROI/NI is the sticking point, or specifically provisions for "what happens if we cant get a deal dont quick".

Apparently there has been a break through with regards to this.
 
The elephant in the uk, that no one seems to have mentioned recently: how/will the agreement address free movement and immigration from the EU?

I guess it will address/ stop European immigration (as May recognised this as key). The agreement may also stop us from being completely free to be, work, travel in Europe too. And in the future our immigrants may come from further a field?

Will people from Ireland need a visa to be in England or Scotland for long periods? Will we need the same to go live and work in Ireland?

This is progress? [emoji23]

Or will we be like Switzerland and Norway, with few controls on freedom of movement?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
 
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