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Politics, politics, politics

So they've done phase one today, but no real detail as to how the hard border is avoided between N.Ireland and the Republic whilst at the same time, treating Northern Ireland the same as the rest of the UK. Unless I missed it, this seems like it will have to be dealt with in the trade talks, and I'm not sure how it gets any easier.

I guess the Government is hedging its bets in the belief that the UK will be in the single market, and ideally in the customs union, so the Ireland border question will become a red herring. That's maybe why the hard line Brexiteers have been asserting themselves recently.

Will we get to the end of this negotiation process and have very little to show for the exit? We might be able to point to a tiny financial contribution saving, and some token immigration controls, but we won't have any say in new regulations, we'll have to suck them up without any UK input. Most of this was foretold.
 
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I guess the Government is hedging its bets in the belief that the UK will be in the single market, and ideally in the customs union, so the Ireland border question will become a red herring. That's maybe why the hard line Brexiteers have been asserting themselves recently.

Will we get to the end of this negotiation process and have very little to show for the exit? We might be able to point to a tiny financial contribution saving, and some token immigration controls, but we won't have any say in new regulations, we'll have to suck them up without any UK input. Most of this was foretold.

But what happens if those hard-liners in the Tory party decide they don't like where the negotiations are heading, and bring down the government/force May to resign?
 
But what happens if those hard-liners in the Tory party decide they don't like where the negotiations are heading, and bring down the government/force May to resign?

And conversely, if people look at the final deal and say you know what we're better off in the EU, the game will be up. Because some Brexiteers see this, they are sitting on their hands, some Brexit is better than none they believe.

The EU will not give us great terms - better terms than members get. We can't expect to be in the customs union but outside of free movement without great cost. Just not happening. So at the end of the negotiation, we'll either be paying for access, or will have to allow free movement, and either way we'll have less control (some call this sovereignty).

What will happen? Stalemate, and maybe no Brexit. If so it will have been a monumental waste of time. Yet fascinating, and shows that if there is a national drive for something the nation can be excited and stimulated. Politicians just lack imagination and innovation. There are in fact all sorts of lessons and things to take from Brexit whatever the outcome.

Imagine the nation put this collective analysis and attention into our education system. Deconstructed pedagogy, put real money and thought behind a drive to modernise and develop education in new directions to stimulate the UK. Or it could be a national drive for exports and innovation. Or making the Government ministries effective, lean and efficient. People are hungry for a shake up of stale politics and government, and we're not using media - new and old - to blow the old apart and reinvent it. Education systems are not greatly changed from 100 years ago for example. Politics too. Yet the rest of industry reinvests itself every decade or even every year in newer media. With all this potential, the only revolution we've been offered is to regress on international trade with Brexit and Corbyn's 70s 'revolution'. Neither of which will see the light of day imo, despite their promise and attraction. Both are flawed in different ways.
 
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But what happens if those hard-liners in the Tory party decide they don't like where the negotiations are heading, and bring down the government/force May to resign?

I am not sure that there is anywhere left for them to go with this deal. Reneging on international agreements is not a good look for country with no trade deals and looking to establish them fast.

I think that the choice they have left is a soft Brexit under May or a Corbyn government.
 
And conversely, if people look at the final deal and say you know what we're better off in the EU, the game will be up. Because some Brexiteers see this, they are sitting on their hands, some Brexit is better than none they believe.

The EU will not give us great terms - better terms than members get. We can't expect to be in the customs union but outside of free movement without great cost. Just not happening. So at the end of the negotiation, we'll either be paying for access, or will have to allow free movement, and either way we'll have less control (some call this sovereignty).

What will happen? Stalemate, and maybe no Brexit. If so it will have been a monumental waste of time. Yet fascinating, and shows that if there is a national drive for something the nation can be excited and stimulated. Politicians just lack imagination and innovation. There are in fact all sorts of lessons and things to take from Brexit whatever the outcome.

Imagine the nation put this collective analysis and attention into our education system. Deconstructed pedagogy, put real money and thought behind a drive to modernise and develop education in new directions to stimulate the UK. Or it could be a national drive for exports and innovation. Or making the Government ministries effective, lean and efficient. People are hungry for a shake up of stale politics and government, and we're not using media - new and old - to blow the old apart and reinvent it. Education systems are not greatly changed from 100 years ago for example. Politics too. Yet the rest of industry reinvests itself every decade or even every year in newer media. With all this potential, the only revolution we've been offered is to regress on international trade with Brexit and Corbyn's 70s 'revolution'. Neither of which will see the light of day imo, despite their promise and attraction. Both are flawed in different ways.

What is the route to no Brexit from here? Why would the EU agree to revoke A50 when they now have a guarantee of regulatory alignment and we are a pain in the arse to have in the EU. I think that the most that we can hope for from here is SM and CU.

At the end of this we will have spent a lot of time and money to get a worse deal than we already had. Whilst not having enough resources to deal with the real issues at home.
 
What is the route to no Brexit from here? Why would the EU agree to revoke A50 when they now have a guarantee of regulatory alignment and we are a pain in the arse to have in the EU. I think that the most that we can hope for from here is SM and CU.

At the end of this we will have spent a lot of time and money to get a worse deal than we already had. Whilst not having enough resources to deal with the real issues at home.

The English lawyer who wrote article 50 believes it can be revoked - and it would stand up to legal scrutiny.

As far as the EU goes, they could do without the headache, and it would ensure trade continues with the core nations of Germany, France and the UK staying the corner stone economies. I agree it wouldn’t be without conjecture but all things considered, and as it was a democratic vote with various claims made, I believe the EU would acquiesce.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
 
The English lawyer who wrote article 50 believes it can be revoked - and this would stand up to legal scrutiny.

As far as the EU goes, they could do without the headache, and it would ensure trade continues with the core nations of Germany, France and the UK staying the core economies. I agree it wouldn’t be without conjecture but all things considered, and as it was a democratic vote with various claims made, I believe the EU would acquiesce.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

I know that Lord Kerr says he thinks that it is revocable. He's a Scottish diplomat rather than as an English lawyer (a lawyer would probably have drafted it less ambiguously). Whilst his view is interesting, it is the ECJ's opinion that matters.

This article by Lord Pannick in today's Times suggests that the ECJ probably would agree that it is revocable in some circumstances whilst acknowledging that legal opinion is divided on this.


The question is, what circumstances could lead us to a second referendum? As David Allen Green points out here

http://jackofkent.com/2017/12/there...or-a-further-referendum-before-29-march-2019/

we are running out of time to pass the legislation in order to have a second referendum. Before we get to that we either need the Tories to change their policy (this is possible as a concession to hard Brexiters) or the government to fall and Labour to change its policy.
 
@milo at the of the day British people don’t want a worse situation to what they have now. MPs are no different. If/ when we have the info needed to model ‘Brexit’ clearly, we’ll know if it’s a good deal for the UK or not. It may not get that far.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
 
@milo at the of the day British people don’t want a worse situation to what they have now. MPs are no different. If/ when we have the info needed to model ‘Brexit’ clearly, we’ll know if it’s a good deal for the UK or not. It may not get that far.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

I get what you are saying and hope that you are right but I don't see how we can get there within 15 months. I think that it is far more likely that we end up having an indefinite transition. The next election coming after we have left the EU but before a final deal is agreed.
 
What is the route to no Brexit from here? Why would the EU agree to revoke A50 when they now have a guarantee of regulatory alignment and we are a pain in the arse to have in the EU. I think that the most that we can hope for from here is SM and CU.

At the end of this we will have spent a lot of time and money to get a worse deal than we already had. Whilst not having enough resources to deal with the real issues at home.

I think you are right -- and I think, in the longer term, the goal of the EU will be for us to re-join but also be in the Euro and Schengen.
 
I am not sure that there is anywhere left for them to go with this deal. Reneging on international agreements is not a good look for country with no trade deals and looking to establish them fast.

I think that the choice they have left is a soft Brexit under May or a Corbyn government.

Maybe, but they are the biggest nutters in Parliament. It doesn't take much of a stretch to see them forcing May out and getting a "Brexiteer" in as PM.

All under the guise of "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed." A lot probably depends how their media supporters react to it all.
 
Maybe, but they are the biggest nutters in Parliament. It doesn't take much of a stretch to see them forcing May out and getting a "Brexiteer" in as PM.

All under the guise of "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed." A lot probably depends how their media supporters react to it all.

We need some form of agreement on leaving whoever is in charge and if we renege on this we are in the realms of grounded flights, queues of lorries from Dover to the M25 and not being able to move nuclear material. An outcome so mad that even Redwood couldn't sign up to it.
 
I think you are right -- and I think, in the longer term, the goal of the EU will be for us to re-join but also be in the Euro and Schengen.

I don't think that the EU will have a goal of us rejoining but some countries would undoubtedly prefer us there as a counterbalance to France/Germany. I agree that we would probably be expected to join Schengen and the Euro should we reapply but I would think that it would take 20 years to get to that point and who knows what position the UK and EU will be in then.
 
I know that Rabb is very thick but this is an enjoyable skewering by Krishnan Guru-Murthy

https://www.channel4.com/news/domin...at-weve-actually-made-a-positive-step-forward

This week the government have continued a core theme of Brexit: promising everything to everyone [emoji23]

Rather than try and be honest about the complexity and necessary compromises that have to be made, the government are telling everyone they’ll get what they want. But the differing demands - the 2 Irish perspectives, the UK red lines on migration and sovereignty, and the EUs founding principles - are simply not all compatible.

Rather than address these issues, the government are blundering forward trying to ignore the contradictions, walking a tightrope through it all. But like a rogue city trader who keeps doubling a bad bet, there will be a point where it collapses.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
 
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